After several years defined by volatility, commercial real estate is entering a new phase — not a broad-based rebound but a disciplined capital reset. Today, interest rates are stabilizing, liquidity is improving and transaction activity is beginning to reemerge. As national outlooks by CBRE, JLL, Colliers and others have highlighted, capital is steadily returning to the market with greater selectivity.

Investors are increasingly focused on markets and property assets with durable fundamentals rather than speculative growth. It is a shift I believe will favor midsize regions such as Arkansas.

Nationally, the commercial real estate landscape remains uneven. Major urban cores continue to work through office oversupply, while industrial markets are normalizing following years of record demand and new development. As a result, underwriting has shifted toward greater emphasis on cost basis, tenant quality and long-term functionality. What does it all mean? In the current environment, capital is gravitating toward assets that align with how companies operate today and where their employees want to be.

At Tempus Realty Partners, we are seeing consistent demand for Class A office space located in vibrant, mixed-use environments, particularly in secondary and suburban growth markets such as northwest Arkansas. The trend is evident at our Uber Freight building in Rogers, which sits within an active transportation corridor and is surrounded by established retail, expanding multifamily development and everyday, in-demand amenities that support employees and employers.

It is a dynamic further reinforced by nearby speculative office development. We see the same investment pattern at Crosspoint Plaza in Fishers, Indiana, a market that closely mirrors Rogers. When we acquired the property in 2019, it was nearly vacant. Yet despite COVID-19-pandemic-era headwinds, it has since been leased to 100 percent occupancy. These projects reflect the broader shift of companies selecting locations close to where their employees live. Businesses, like their team members, favor environments with strong retail access, modern amenities, and connectivity, such as extensive trail networks.

Industrial demand, while moderating nationally, also remains strong in regions that are strategically located for regional distribution, advanced manufacturing and, increasingly, large-scale digital infrastructure. In Arkansas, our central location, talented workforce and affordability continue to attract traditional industrial users, while robust power access and supportive utility partners are helping us compete in the rapidly growing data center and artificial intelligence infrastructure market.

Over the past several months alone, Arkansas has announced two of the largest investments in its history. The projects include the $6 billion AVAIO Digital campus near Little Rock and the $4 billion Google data center campus in West Memphis. The record-breaking investments underscore the importance of power availability and regional scale in today’s site-selection decisions.

Despite the bright spots, 2026 will not be without challenges for commercial real estate. Office vacancy remains uneven in certain markets, particularly those that overbuilt prior to 2020, and it will take time for these properties to right-size and normalize. Rising warehouse vacancies also serve as a reminder that real estate is inherently local. As we do at Tempus, investors must temper broad optimism with rigorous market-by-market analysis, grounded in asset-level performance, tenant behavior and micromarket dynamics.

Is 2026 the time to invest in commercial real estate? Most experts agree that capital will continue returning to the market with greater discipline, prioritizing quality, functionality and assets that reflect how people work, do business and live today. Tempus Realty Partners has followed that common-sense approach since our founding a decade ago, focusing on long-term value creation and reliable outcomes for tenants and investors alike.

As we embark on a new year, I believe a disciplined strategy that leans into Arkansas’ strengths can — and will — position our state to benefit meaningfully from the ongoing reawakening of the commercial real estate market.

Clay Ramey is a partner and vice president of capital markets for Little Rock-based Tempus Realty Partners, an investor-centric real estate investment partnership that has acquired more than $1 billion worth of property across 25 states since its founding 10 years ago. Email him at cramey@tempusrealty.com.

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