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Kennedy Turns to a Discredited Vaccine Skeptic for Autism Study

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Kennedy Turns to a Discredited Vaccine Skeptic for Autism Study

A steadfast figure in the anti-vaccine movement who has helped shape Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s thinking on a possible link to autism has joined his department to work on a study examining the long-debunked theory, according to people familiar with the matter.

The new analyst, David Geier, has published numerous articles in the medical literature attempting to tie mercury in vaccines to autism. In 2012, state authorities in Maryland found that he had been practicing medicine without a license alongside his father, Mark Geier, who was a doctor at the time.

Maryland authorities also suspended Mark Geier’s medical license following claims that he endangered children with autism and exploited their parents, according to state records.

Federal judges have rejected their research on autism and vaccines as too unreliable to stand up in court.

David Geier’s new government role has stunned public health experts, who had already expressed concerns about Mr. Kennedy’s decisions to cancel a long-held vaccine meeting and to cut grants focused on understanding vaccine hesitancy.

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In addition, David Geier’s involvement in government research heightens their fears that vaccine confidence could be further eroded, especially after Mr. Kennedy’s recent embrace of questionable alternative treatments for measles during the sprawling outbreak in Texas.

“If we increase vaccine hesitancy and immunization rates go down further, we will see more vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks,” said Dr. Christopher Beyrer, director of the Duke Global Health Institute. “That’s how it works.”

Several experts said that appointing David Geier to work on a study of vaccine safety preordains the outcome — like having a basketball referee show up in one team’s jersey.

“You’d think you’d want a fresh eye,” said Edward L. Hunter, a former head of the Washington office of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“This isn’t a fresh eye. They have already published their results, and spending all this time and money is not going to help anyone. I am quite certain they’ll come to the same conclusion.”

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An official with Mr. Kennedy’s Department of Health and Human Services declined to comment. Two White House spokesmen did not respond to a request for comment. David Geier did not reply to emails or calls requesting comment.

Mary Holland, chief executive of Children’s Health Defense, the anti-vaccine nonprofit Mr. Kennedy ran until his presidential bid, praised David Geier on its website on Wednesday, describing him as “a brilliant, extremely knowledgeable researcher with deep expertise on mercury.”

(Over the weekend, federal officials ordered the nonprofit to remove a mock C.D.C. web page suggesting a link between vaccines and autism.)

David Geier is listed in the Department of Health and Human Services directory as a “senior data analyst.” News of his role in the agency was initially reported by The Washington Post.

Earlier this month, federal officials announced plans for a large study to re-examine whether there was a connection between vaccines and autism. Mr. Trump has voiced support for H.H.S. officials who wanted to revisit the issue, citing increases in autism diagnoses in children over the decades.

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About 1 in 36 children have an autism diagnosis, according to C.D.C. data collected in 11 states, compared with 1 in 150 children in 2000.

Many scientists believe the rise is due in part to increased awareness of the disorder and changes in how it is diagnosed by medical professionals, though genetic and environmental factors could be playing a role as well.

The Senate confirmed Mr. Kennedy largely because he won over the chairman of the Senate health committee, Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, who is a medical doctor and strong proponent of childhood vaccines.

Mr. Cassidy has said that further research into any supposed link between vaccines and autism would be a waste of money and a distraction from studies that might shed light on the “true reason” for the rise in autism rates.

On Thursday, Mr. Cassidy said he wanted confirmation of David Geier’s role, aside from news reports. He mentioned that he had breakfast with Mr. Kennedy on Thursday but said the topic did not come up.

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At one of his confirmation hearings, Mr. Kennedy shot back at Mr. Cassidy, citing a study from an ecosystem of vaccine critics that he said proved a connection between vaccines and autism.

David Geier comes from a similar circle of researchers. Along with his father, he played a formative role in Mr. Kennedy’s thinking.

Mr. Kennedy interviewed David Geier for an essay in 2005, “Tobacco Science and the Thimerosal Scandal,” in which he accused the C.D.C. of deliberately hiding vaccine data, under chapter headings like “Conspiracy” and “The Cover-Up.”

Mr. Kennedy described the Geiers’ belief that thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative used in some vaccines, was linked to childhood autism. The preservative has since been removed from most childhood vaccines but is still used in some flu shots.

In a Rolling Stone article called “Deadly Immunity,” Mr. Kennedy credited the Geiers with being among the few who had gained access to C.D.C. vaccine data, which he said they used to “demonstrate a powerful correlation between thimerosal and neurological damage in children.” (The magazine later withdrew the article, but did not elaborate.)

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Almost a decade later, in Mr. Kennedy’s book, “Thimerosal: Let The Science Speak,” he paid homage to the Geiers, mentioning them nearly 250 times. He called them a “father-and-son team of independent medical researchers” who had “published extensively on the topic of thimerosal and its potential link to neurodevelopmental disorders, particularly autism.”

Mr. Kennedy acknowledged that the two had become “lightning rods of controversy in the vaccine safety debate.”

“The Geiers have published no fewer than thirteen epidemiological studies of the associations between Thimerosal and health effects in U.S. populations, employing accepted statistical practices,” Mr. Kennedy wrote in the book.

On a podcast in 2022, Mr. Kennedy credited the Geiers’ research for showing that vaccines “had nothing to do with” a decline in infectious diseases over decades. “It was all an illusion,” Mr. Kennedy said, attributing the decrease to improving sanitation and nutrition.

The Geiers’ work has been repeatedly discredited by other scientists and federal court decisions.

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An extensive review of the purported link between vaccines and autism in 2004 by the Institute of Medicine, an elite group of doctors and researchers, panned the Geiers’ studies. The review found their work to be marred by flaws “making their results uninterpretable.”

The institute’s report on a connection with the measles shots said: “The committee concludes that the evidence favor rejection of a causal relationship between M.M.R. vaccine and autism.”

In 2011, the Maryland Medical Board accused David Geier of practicing medicine without a license alongside his father at a Rockville, Md., clinic for children with autism.

One mother of a 10-year-old boy with autism balked when David Geier reportedly ordered 24 different blood tests for her son.

His father, Mark Geier, lost his medical license in 2012. Records in that case indicate that both father and son promoted a theory that thimerosal caused autism.

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State authorities found that the Geiers had offered treatment with puberty-blocking drugs. To some patients, they offered chelation, a procedure to remove heavy metals from the blood, records show. David Geier was assessed a $10,000 fine.

Judges have rejected the Geiers’ efforts to serve as experts on vaccine safety in court. Records show that judges challenged the father-son team’s billings for hundreds of thousands of dollars related to services they provided as experts for a specialized vaccine injury court.

The judges cited David Geier’s lack of qualifications, which include a bachelor’s degree in biology, and raised concerns about his father’s credibility.

Judge George L. Hastings Jr. said in 2016 that David Geier was not qualified to render an expert opinion in a National Vaccine Injury Compensation court case.

Judge Hastings said his report “is neither useful nor relevant, because he is not qualified as an expert concerning the matters he discusses.”

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In a review of two Geier studies this week, Jeffrey S. Morris, director of the division of biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania, said he found what appeared to be a numerical sleight of hand that made it appear that vaccines caused a spike in autism.

“When I look at these two studies, they are so fatally flawed that I have serious concerns that any study that they’re going to design is going” to be rigorous enough, he said, “to yield valid results.”

To Mr. Hunter, formerly of the C.D.C., the decision to spend federal funds on a new study of a debunked theory would come at the cost of a meaningful discovery.

Since he became health secretary, Mr. Kennedy has presided over cutbacks involving research into nearly every aspect of health care and diseases. On Thursday, he announced a massive reorganization and reduction in the work force from 82,000 to 62,000.

“To me, the big shame is that with budget cuts, we are not ramping up research into what is actually causing autism,” Mr. Hunter said. “And if you are worried about vaccine-preventable disease, this is such a clear setback.”

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Michael Gold contributed reporting from Washington. Alain Delaquérière contributed research. Jeremy Singer-Vine provided data analysis.

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This Tree Wants to Be Struck by Lightning

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This Tree Wants to Be Struck by Lightning

When lightning strikes a tree in the tropics, the whole forest explodes.

“At their most extreme, it kind of looks like a bomb went off,” said Evan Gora, a forest ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, N.Y. Dozens of trees around the one that was struck are electrocuted. Within months, a sizable circle of forest can wither away.

Somehow, a single survivor stands, seemingly healthier than ever. A new study by Dr. Gora, published last week in the journal New Phytologist, reveals that some of the biggest trees in a rainforest don’t just survive lightning strikes. They thrive.

The rainforest in Panama’s Barro Colorado Nature Monument is the perfect place to study whether some trees are immune to lightning. It’s home to the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and one of the most closely studied tropical forests in the world. Dr. Gora set out to study whether individual trees in the forest benefit from being struck by lightning. And if they did, does that help the population of the species survive at a larger scale?

Early on, he spent much of his time climbing trees, looking for signs of lightning damage. But making critical observations could be painfully inefficient. Dr. Gora would begin climbing one tree, convinced it was the struck trunk, only to get 50 feet up and see he actually wanted to be up the neighboring tree. Honey bees would also swarm Dr. Gora’s eyes and ears.

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“Your entire life is just buzzing,” he said. “It’s horrifying.”

Dr. Gora needed a more efficient way to find struck trees, so he and his collaborators developed a method for monitoring lightning strikes and triangulating their electromagnetic signals. The technique led him more quickly to the right tree, which he could assess using a drone.

From 2014 to 2019, the system captured 94 lightning strikes on trees. Dr. Gora and his team visited sites to see which species had been struck. They were looking for dead trees as well as “flashover points,” where leaves are singed as lightning jumps between trees. From there, the canopy dies back, and the tree eventually dies.

Eighty-five species had been struck and seven survived, but one stood out literally and figuratively: Dipteryx oleifera, a towering species that had been struck nine times, including one tree that had been hit twice and seemed more vigorous. D. oleifera stands about 30 percent taller than the rest of the trees and has a crown about 50 percent larger than others, almost as if it is an arboreal lightning rod.

“It seems to have an architecture that is potentially selecting to be struck more often,” Dr. Gora said.

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All the struck D. oleifera trees survived lightning strikes, but 64 percent of other species died within two years. Trees surrounding D. oleifera were 48 percent more likely to die after a lightning strike than those around other species. In one notable die-off, a single strike killed 57 trees around D. oleifera “while the central tree is just happy and healthy,” Dr. Gora said. Lightning also blasted parasitic vines off D. oleifera trees.

The clearing of neighboring trees and choking vines meant struck D. oleifera trees had less competition for light, making it easier to grow and produce more seeds. Computer models estimated that getting struck multiple times could extend the life of a D. oleifera tree by almost 300 years.

Before the study, “it seemed impossible that lightning could be a good thing for the trees,” Dr. Gora said. But the evidence suggests that D. oleifera benefits from each jolt.

“Trees are in constant competition with each other, and you just need an edge relative to whatever is surrounding you,” said Gabriel Arellano, a forest ecologist at the University of Michigan who was not involved in the study.

The physical mechanisms that help trees survive intense lightning strikes remain unknown. Different trees could be more conductive or have architectures that escape damage, Dr. Gora suggested.

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While the study was only in Panama, similar patterns have been observed in other tropical forests. “It’s remarkably common,” said Adriane Esquivel Muelbert, a forest ecologist at the University of Birmingham in England who had collaborated with Dr. Gora but was not involved in the study. “It’s quite clear when it happens.”

Climate change is set to increase the frequency and severity of thunderstorms in the tropics. Some trees, it seems, may be better equipped for a stormy future than others.

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California, other states sue Trump administration over cuts to CDC infectious disease funding

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California, other states sue Trump administration over cuts to CDC infectious disease funding

California and a coalition of other states sued the Trump administration Tuesday over its plans to cut billions of dollars in federal public health grants designed to make states more resilient to infectious disease, and accused the administration of overreaching its authority by clawing back funding already allocated by Congress.

The pullback in funding is a devastating hit to local health departments, many of whom are dealing with large and novel outbreaks ranging from COVID-19 to bird flu and measles. Agencies in California alone stand to lose nearly $1 billion.

“Congress explicitly authorized funding for the grants at issue to help keep our country healthy and protect us from future pandemics,” California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “cannot unilaterally do away with that critical federal funding.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month notified health agencies in all 50 states — including the California Department of Public Health — that it was suspending more than $11 billion in grants it had previously provided to support state infectious disease responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the pandemic has subsided, the states have continued using the funding for a range of infectious disease initiatives.

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The lawsuit, filed against Kennedy and the Health and Human Services Department in federal court in Rhode Island by California, 23 other states and the District of Columbia, is the latest in a string of litigation filed by Democratic-led states against the administration amid a wave of policy enactments and other funding cuts that Trump has attempted to initiate through executive orders and other White House dictates since taking office in January.

Several of the states’ prior lawsuits have also alleged that Trump is illegally seizing funding powers that belong to Congress, and not to the executive branch. Tuesday’s lawsuit alleges the Trump administration is in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, and seeks a temporary restraining order that would immediately restore the public health funding to its previously allocated levels.

Bonta’s office said the cuts — which include $972 million in funds for California — would cause “irreparable harm” to the states if allowed to stand.

It said the California Department of Public Health would lose $800 million that it planned to use in part to vaccinate 4.5 million children and improve logistical preparation for directing sick and injured patients from hospitals to other available health facilities during emergencies.

The office said the California Department of Health Care Services would lose $119 million that it intended to use for substance use prevention and other early intervention health services for youth across the state. It also said the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health would lose $45 million that it intended to use in part to prevent the spread of measles and bird flu.

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A spokeswoman for the county said the funding cuts would eliminate staff that work to mitigate disease spread in homeless shelters, schools, jails and worksites; curtail work by the county mobile infectious disease team to provide vaccines and other healthcare to homebound residents, seniors at housing developments, senior centers and others confined to living facilities; and forestall upgrades to county data systems and other infrastructure needed to track infectious diseases and share timely outbreak information with the public.

Some of those system upgrades are already underway, meaning cutting the funding now will waste past investments, in addition to increasing the likelihood of system failures during emergencies, the spokeswoman said.

The CDC funding cuts are part of a much larger effort by the Trump administration and Trump’s “efficiency” advisor Elon Musk to radically reduce federal spending, in part to pay for tax cuts that critics allege will disproportionately benefit the rich.

Musk, the world’s richest man, and his Department of Government Efficiency, which is not a real government department, have been granted access to sensitive government facilities, computer networks and other data and have been empowered to slash away at government budgets — which California is also suing over.

The CDC cuts are not the first to public health. Kennedy also has announced plans to reduce the health department workforce by some 20,000 employees, and the Trump administration reportedly intends to close various Health and Human Services buildings — including in California.

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On Tuesday, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) issued a statement denouncing what she called a “reported decision to close” a Health and Human Services regional office in San Francisco by Kennedy, whom she called “the Trump administration’s leading vaccine denialist” — a nod to his past adoption of vaccine pseudoscience that medical experts have widely rejected and criticized.

“By closing our regional office, the Trump Administration would choose to put the health and safety of Bay Area residents and all Californians in jeopardy, gut vital public health initiatives like the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, and potentially axe hundreds of career civil servant jobs held by hardworking Californians,” Pelosi said.

She said Kennedy’s “extreme views on public health are out of step with the vast majority of the American people,” that the “shortsighted” closure would “directly harm our most vulnerable communities and make America sicker,” and that she and others would be fighting the closure and other cuts to public health.

Tuesday’s lawsuit is the ninth that Bonta’s office has filed against the current Trump administration. It has also filed its support for litigants against the administration in at least a half-dozen other cases.

California has been ground zero for the H5N1 bird flu since last March. Thirty-eight people in the state have been infected with the virus, most of them dairy workers who were exposed while working with infected cows or milk. However, two of the people were children; the cause of their infection has not been determined. The virus has also infected 758 dairy herds — or more than 75% of the state’s total dairy herds.

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There have been eight measles cases in California since the beginning of the year, in addition to thousands of seasonal flu, COVID-19, norovirus and other respiratory virus cases.

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How the Myanmar Earthquake Shook Skyscrapers in Bangkok

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How the Myanmar Earthquake Shook Skyscrapers in Bangkok

More than 600 miles separated the epicenter of Friday’s earthquake in Myanmar from the skyscrapers of Bangkok, which lurched and swayed on the skyline of the vast metropolis. A 33-story high-rise under construction even collapsed. How could the shaking in Bangkok, the Thai capital, be connected to an earthquake so far away?

The answer involves low frequency seismic waves, which are capable of traveling vast distances and making high-rise buildings sway.

When a large earthquake strikes, it simultaneously radiates different frequencies of shaking. Some produce a rapid back-and-forth rattling, others low-frequency swaying.

That was true on Friday, when the earthquake in Myanmar produced violent, high-frequency seismic waves; they destroyed low-rise buildings, Buddhist pagodas and other structures near to the quake’s epicenter just outside Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city. Many of the destroyed places were made with brick and masonry, brittle materials that are susceptible to that kind of shaking.

When released from an earthquake, high frequency seismic waves spread through the interior of the earth, where they dissipate. Low frequency waves, in contrast, travel along the earth’s crust and for greater distances.

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During the 7.9 magnitude Denali earthquake in Alaska in 2002, low frequency waves traveled so far that they caused water in swimming pools and ponds to splash as far away as Texas and Louisiana — harmlessly, but for nearly half an hour, according to NASA.

These types of seismic waves also have particular resonance with tall buildings.

Similar to tuning forks, which produce different sounds depending on their size, buildings react differently to earthquakes depending on their design, and especially their height.

A 10-story building might require one second to sway from side to side during an earthquake, while a 50-story building could take five seconds to complete the same motion, a nausea-inducing back and forth.

Low frequency seismic waves were a key factor in an earthquake in in 1985, when close to 900 buildings in Mexico City, the nation’s capital, partially or totally collapsed. The extensive destruction initially puzzled seismologists and engineers because the epicenter of the 8.0-magnitude earthquake had been a relatively long distance away, more than 200 miles to the west of the city.

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They concluded that the seismic waves had resonated with particular force through the clay and silt soils of the city, an aggravating factor in the quake and its aftermath.

A similar dynamic was at play last Friday. As the low frequency shaking pulsed across mainland Southeast Asia, it was amplified in and around the Thai capital, because the city is built on the soft soils of the Chao Phraya River delta.

In recent years scientists say they have underestimated the potential of these soft soils to make earthquakes more dangerous. Engineers compare the dynamic to constructing a building on a bowl of Jell-O.

In addition to Bangkok and Mexico City, Los Angeles, downtown San Francisco, Seattle and Tokyo are all cities subject to these so-called basin effects, which can multiply the destructive power of earthquakes, especially at low frequencies.

In Mexico City in 1985, the frequencies of the seismic waves were crucial to understanding the damage caused by the earthquake. A team of American scientists concluded in a report published by the Department of Commerce in 1987 that most of the severe damage “was confined to buildings in the height range of seven to 18 stories.” The reason for this, they said, was a combination of the lower frequency seismic waves reaching the city and construction that was vulnerable at those frequencies.

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The report noted that “older, low-rise masonry buildings generally performed well, as did the massive stone masonry colonial churches and government offices.” Paradoxically, those are the types of buildings that engineers consider the most vulnerable to the shaking near the epicenter of earthquakes.

Until the 1950s, many American engineers shunned the construction of high-rise buildings in earthquake-prone areas, according to Thomas H. Heaton, an emeritus professor at the California Institute of Technology who has spent his five-decade career studying the effects of large-magnitude earthquakes on buildings.

The prevailing wisdom, he said, was to build stronger, stiffer buildings. But that changed over the decades, and today’s skyscrapers are more flexible.

Dr. Heaton says the flexible design of modern skyscrapers works well with earthquakes of magnitudes around 6, which occur more frequently. But he is very concerned about the consequences of less frequent, larger quakes, which have highlighted the vulnerability of tall buildings. That roster includes a 7.8 magnitude earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey two years ago.

A massive fault rupture beneath a modern city — a direct hit — would be devastating to tall buildings, no matter the engineering precautions, Dr. Heaton says.

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The violent movement of the ground at the fault, the slip as seismologists call it, would cause the base of a high rise to shift rapidly, potentially leaving the top floors unsupported, he said.

“When you take the base of a building and move it by several meters in less than a couple of seconds, there’s almost nothing a structural engineer can do to have a building stay upright,” he said. “I definitely wouldn’t want to be in a really tall building during a large magnitude earthquake.”

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