Business
The Stock Market’s Boomerang Month Has Put Investors in a Bind
The stock market is now higher than before President Trump’s broad and steep tariffs sent share prices into a tailspin. The 10-year government bond yield is now largely in line with where it started the year. On Tuesday, a widely watched measure of inflation nudged lower.
Judging from a snapshot of today’s financial markets, it would be easy to conclude that very little had happened over the last four and a half months.
As the administration has dialed down its trade offensive, delaying the worst of the tariffs announced on April 2 and promoting a long list of trade deals in the works, stocks have risen and the unnerving volatility in the government bond market — which Mr. Trump noted when he first began pausing his tariffs — has subsided.
On Tuesday, the latest reading of the Consumer Price Index showed a slower pace of inflation in April than economists had predicted, despite widespread concerns that tariffs could have sped up price increases.
The S&P 500, which came close to hitting a bear market early last month, is now up slightly since the start of the year, after a 0.7 percent gain on Tuesday.
Still, investors remained cautious, and complain that the outlook remains uncertain, with little clarity on what the final level of tariffs will be.
That leaves them in a tricky position, with many saying they have little conviction as to where the economy is headed but they cannot afford to wait on the sidelines and miss out on the possibility that tariffs will be lowered further and stocks will rise.
In the meantime, investors are still trying to parse how the tariffs that remain in place — including 30 percent tariffs on many Chinese imports — are affecting consumer spending and corporate profits
John Kerschner, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said signs of tariff-fueled inflation are not likely to show up in the economic data for months.
“The market will wait with bated breath for those readings to make a determination of where we actually stand on tariff induced rising prices. Thus, market uncertainty will likely remain elevated,” Mr. Kerschner said.
The Federal Reserve is also in a wait-and-see mode, unwilling to keep lowering interest rates before the inflationary effect of the new tariffs is known. That’s because lower interest rates stimulate the economy and could add a further tailwind to inflation.
Market bets on when the Fed will next lower interest rates have gradually been pushed further out. At the start of this year, investors were anticipating that the Fed would lower interest rates at its meeting last week. Now, investors expect the first rate cut of the year to arrive at the September meeting.
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said the lower than expected reading in the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday “doesn’t mean tariffs aren’t impacting the economy, it just means they aren’t showing up in the data yet.”
“Wait-and-see is still the name of the game, and until that changes, the Fed will remain on the sidelines,” she added.
The longer uncertainty prevails, the more it becomes its own economic force, separate from the tariffs. Uncertainty means businesses hold off on making investment decisions and consumers pull back from spending, slowing economic growth.
Beneath the surface, that concern is still evident in the markets.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, which are more at risk from a downturn in the economy, has risen from its lows, but remains 14 percent lower than its peak in November. The S&P 500 is only 4 percent below its February high.
The lowest-rated corporate debt continues to show some signs of strain.
Then there is the dollar, which has sent the most pointed signal of concern about tariffs. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of its peers, has fallen 6.9 percent so far this year.
That is the dollar’s biggest slide since the end of 2022, when the Fed pivoted from raising interest rates, which had strengthened the dollar, to holding them steady.
But even now, as tariffs have de-escalated, the dollar has regained ground.
“As far as markets are concerned, there’s now a belief that the worst of the trade war has passed, and that the trend is now towards de-escalation,” noted analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a recent research note. But they also warned, “The U.S. is not out of the woods yet.”
Business
U.S. Targets Iran’s Missile and Drone Program With Sanctions
The United States on Friday announced a flurry of new sanctions intended to increase pressure on Iran’s economy, targeting people and companies in China and Hong Kong that have been helping the Iranian military gain access to supplies and war equipment.
The sanctions came ahead of a major summit between President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing next week. China’s support for Iran has become a flashpoint with the Trump administration, which has been trying to compel independent Chinese refineries to stop purchasing Iranian oil.
China is Iran’s biggest buyer of oil, and the Trump administration has said that it is sponsoring terrorism by propping up the Iranian economy.
The new sanctions are aimed at Iran’s military industrial supply chain, and are intended to make it harder for Iran to secure access to the material it needs to build drones and missiles. In addition to China, the sanctions also target people and companies based in Belarus and the United Arab Emirates.
“Under President Trump’s decisive leadership, we will continue to act to keep America safe and target foreign individuals and companies providing Iran’s military with weapons for use against U.S. forces,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.
The Trump administration has been looking for ways to squeeze Iran’s economy and pressure the Iranian government to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for the flow of global oil. Oil tankers have had sporadic access to the critical waterway since the war started earlier this year, and the United States and Iran have been fighting over who should control it.
U.S. warships that have been trying to transit the strait have been attacked by Iranian forces. The United States on Friday fired on and disabled two Iranian-flagged oil tankers as they tried to reach an Iranian port.
The Treasury Department has also imposed sanctions on the Chinese “teapot” refineries this month. The independent refineries are major purchasers of Iranian oil. But China invoked a domestic policy ordering its companies to disregard the sanctions.
Mr. Bessent said earlier this week that he expected Mr. Trump to urge Mr. Xi to use the country’s leverage over Iran to pressure it to allow oil cargo to travel.
“Let’s see if China — let’s see them step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the strait,” Mr. Bessent told Fox News on Monday.
Business
General Motors to pay $12.5 million to settle claims that it illegally sold California driver data
General Motors has agreed to pay $12.5 million dollars to settle claims that the automaker illegally sold location and driving data of hundreds of thousands of Californians, state officials said Friday.
The settlement is an example of how automakers are facing more scrutiny over allegations that they share driver data with the insurance industry, influencing how much people pay for coverage. California, though, has a law that bars insurers from using driving data to set rates.
“If we get word that a company is illegally collecting, storing or selling consumer data, we won’t hesitate to look under the hood and hold them accountable to the law,” California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said in a news conference.
The settlement is the largest California Consumer Privacy Act penalty in the state’s history, Bonta said.
The act gives California consumers the right to request that businesses disclose what data they collect. They can also opt out of the sharing or sale of their personal information and request that businesses delete their data.
Investigators found that from 2020 to 2024, GM sold driver data, including names, contact information, location data and driving behavior data, to data brokers Verisk Analytics Inc. and LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The data came from a driver’s use of OnStar, which is owned by GM and provides roadside assistance, navigation and other services.
GM said the agreement addresses a product called OnStar Smart Driver that the company discontinued in 2024. The product was meant to help improve people’s driving but faced privacy concerns from consumers. In 2024, GM also ended its partnership with the two data brokers and said it would enhance privacy controls.
“Vehicle connectivity is central to a modern and safe driving experience, which is why we’re committed to being clear and transparent with our customers about our practices and the choices and control they have over their information,” a GM spokesperson said in a statement.
Various district attorneys throughout the state, including in Los Angeles and San Francisco, were involved in the investigation and settlement.
Technology has been playing a bigger role in the auto industry, but the data collected from drivers can reveal personal information about people’s daily habits, including where they drop off their kids and doctor visits.
The California Privacy Protection Agency in 2023 started investigating the privacy practices of connected cars. As the state was looking into the automakers, the New York Times reported in 2024 that GM was sharing consumer driving behavior with insurance companies. Nationwide, GM reportedly made roughly $20 million from selling data to Verisk and LexisNexis.
The state’s privacy protection agency has taken action against other automakers before. Ford Motor Company was fined $375,703 in March and Honda was fined $632,500 in 2025 for privacy violations.
Under the GM settlement, which still needs court approval, the automaker would delete any driving data the company kept within 180 days and request that the two data brokers do the same. They would also stop selling driving data to consumer reporting agencies for five years and develop a privacy program that includes assessing and mitigating the risks of data collected from OnStar.
California’s settlement with GM came after the Federal Trade Commission in 2025 also took action against the automaker and OnStar for its privacy practices, barring them from disclosing location and driver behavior data to consumer reporting agencies for five years.
Business
Trump’s Latest Tariff Setback Looms Over China Talks
A day after a federal court ruled against President Trump’s latest global tariffs, his administration returned to the drawing board on Friday, trying to preserve its powers to wage economic warfare in time for high-stakes trade talks with China.
The latest legal blow concerned the 10 percent tariff that Mr. Trump imposed in late February on nearly all U.S. imports. The president unveiled that policy as a sort of temporary fix, after the Supreme Court tossed out his initial duties, but a panel of judges once again found that the White House had run afoul of the law.
The result was a familiar set of headaches for Mr. Trump, who has tried repeatedly — and with mixed success — to stretch his authority to tax imports without the express permission of Congress. By Friday, one of the president’s top aides signaled that an appeal was imminent, echoing the president, who told reporters shortly after the ruling that he would simply “do it a different way.”
Technically, the Court of International Trade only declared the president’s across-the-board, 10 percent tariff to be illegal. Otherwise, it did not issue an order forcing the government to stop collecting it from all importers, at least for now. Still, the outcome marked both a political and legal setback for Mr. Trump, who had spent much of the week issuing trade threats against Europe and preparing for talks in China.
Tariffs are expected to be a major topic on the agenda when Mr. Trump travels to Beijing to meet next week with his counterpart, Xi Jinping. Trade experts said the court decision could undercut the president’s leverage. Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University, said the ruling “severely handicapped” the administration’s ability to employ tariffs against foreign nations, leaving Mr. Trump with a “much weaker bargaining hand” when it comes to China.
“Any threats by Trump to hit China with broader and higher tariffs if Xi doesn’t bend to his will on economic and geopolitical matters now seem like empty bluster rather than credible ultimatums,” he said.
One of the president’s top trade advisers, Jamieson Greer, appeared to brush aside some of those concerns on Friday. During an interview on Fox Business, he criticized the court for ruling against the White House, claiming that some of the judges on the panel were “apparently just hellbent on importing more from China.”
Mr. Greer, who defended the president’s use of trade powers, added that the administration is “confident on appeal we’ll be successful.”
At the heart of the matter is Mr. Trump’s decision to invoke a trade power that no president had ever used. Known as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, it permits the president to impose tariffs up to 15 percent for 150 days, but only in response to strict conditions, including a “balance of payments” crisis.
The term itself reflects a bygone concern from the time the law was adopted, when the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, creating unique economic risks. But the Trump administration sought to argue that the law still applied today, pointing in part to the country’s persistent trade deficit, a different measurement, which reflects the gap between U.S. imports and exports.
In the end, a majority of judges on the Court of International Trade found the argument unpersuasive and sided with small businesses and states that had sued. It marked the second time that some of those challengers had prevailed against Mr. Trump, after they convinced the Supreme Court to invalidate his earlier use of emergency powers to impose withering tariffs.
The new decision raised the odds that the administration could soon have to pay back the billions of dollars collected from its 10 percent tariff, on top of the $166 billion that the government already owes to U.S. importers from its last legal defeat. But the fight appeared far from over, and much remained uncertain by Friday — not just for American businesses, which paid the cost to import goods, but for the Trump administration itself.
“President Trump has lawfully used the tariff authorities granted to him by Congress to address our balance of payments crisis,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in a statement. “The Trump administration is reviewing legal options and maintains confidence in ultimately prevailing.”
For one thing, the court only appeared to bar the collection of the president’s 10 percent tariff for some of the plaintiffs that sued, many legal experts said. That raised the odds that droves of U.S. businesses could soon mobilize and “file a court case” of their own asking for similar relief, said Ted Murphy, a top trade lawyer at the law firm Sidley Austin. He added that he also expected the trade court to pause implementation of its order pending an appeal.
The timing is important to Mr. Trump, who had always envisioned his across-the-board tariff as a stopgap that would allow the government time to prepare a set of more lasting rates using another set of authorities, known as Section 301. But that process was widely expected to take months, since the law requires the government to conduct investigations into other countries’ trade practices before Mr. Trump can apply new duties.
Those inquiries targeting dozens of countries are well underway, and the president at times has suggested the final rates could be set at new highs. Some experts believe the tariffs imposed using Section 301 could be more legally durable, though the administration could still face lawsuits over his aggressive use of the law.
Michael Lowell, the chair of the global regulatory enforcement group at the law firm Reed Smith, said the White House probably would not have to worry about “a broad attack on that authority.” But, he said, the courts had recently drawn something of a line in the sand, suggesting they would be “very skeptical of the administration looking to the past and finding and repurposing” other powers to advance its trade agenda.
Unlike the president’s other trade gambits, he has successfully applied tariffs in the past using Section 301, including on China. That left some analysts to conclude that Mr. Trump, while blemished, would still retain some leverage ahead of his trip to Beijing next week.
“Unless they have amnesia, China should remember quite vividly how during Trump’s first term, the U.S. imposed multiple rounds of tariffs under Section 301 on China during negotiations,” said Sarah Schuman, a former U.S. trade official who is now managing director at Beacon Global Strategies.
The administration still had multiple options “to increase tariffs on China in pretty short order,” she added.
Mr. Trump’s trip to China had been scheduled for April, but was delayed because of the war in Iran. U.S. officials have said their goals for the visit include establishing a “board of trade,” which would oversee commerce between the countries in an effort to balance trade and reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China
On Friday, Mr. Greer sketched out a long list of concerns that the administration planned to raise with its Chinese counterparts, from its adherence to past purchase agreements to its approach to artificial intelligence.
“There’s not really a situation where we go, we get China to change the way they govern, the way they manage their economy; that’s all baked into their system,” he said. “But I think there is a world where we find out where we can optimize trade between China and the U.S. to achieve more balance.”
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