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Foreign outbreaks, lower vaccination rates are troubling signs for California’s coming flu season

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Foreign outbreaks, lower vaccination rates are troubling signs for California’s coming flu season

Last year’s flu season was the worst California had seen in years — and state health officials warn this year could potentially be just as bad.

While forecasting disease isn’t an exact science, there are some troubling signs. In Asia, the flu has made an early comeback, and quickly swelled to epidemic proportions in Japan and Taiwan.

And stateside, some experts are sounding the alarm about continued lower uptake of the flu vaccine. There’s also the possibility of a seasonal COVID-19 wave — the likes of which didn’t materialize last winter, but had been commonplace since the pandemic — as well as a simultaneous rise in respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

California health officials have previously forecast that this fall-and-winter’s respiratory virus season is expected to be similar to last year’s. If that’s the case, flu would again be the dominant virus fueling hospital admissions compared to COVID-19 and RSV. During the winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24, COVID made up the majority of California hospital admissions caused by respiratory viruses.

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“Having people get vaccinated is going to be really key for influenza,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert.

While flu, COVID and RSV are currently at low levels in California, there are signs that respiratory virus season is starting to gear up as temperatures drop and people spend more time indoors.

Compared to rates recorded in the summer, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has seen increases in people reporting cough, fever, chills, aches, sore throat and runny nose, officials said, citing a text-based health survey. The test positivity rate for rhinoviruses and enteroviruses, which typically cause the common cold, is 19.87%. That’s higher than that of the virus that causes COVID-19, 4.2%; or the flu, 1.04%.

In San Francisco, doctors have seen the number of colds being reported in the hospital double, Chin-Hong said. Some workplaces in the Bay Area have seen a number of employees call out sick.

With RSV, flu and COVID-19 rates expected to climb by the holidays, “this is a perfect time to get immunized,” the L.A. County Department of Public Health said in an email.

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The fall and winter of 2024-25 brought the nation’s worst flu season in many years, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The number of children who died from flu last season was the highest since the H1N1 swine flu pandemic season of 2009-10, according to a recent report published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Officials reported 280 confirmed deaths among children last season, and about 9 in 10 of those kids were not vaccinated.

Health officials became particularly concerned about reports of a rare, severe complication that targets the brain — influenza-associated encephalopathy, or IAE, which was reported in 109 children nationally last season.

Three in four children with IAE needed intensive care treatment. The median age of children with IAE was 5, and 55% of those diagnosed with the condition had no underlying health conditions.

Of those children, 37 had acute necrotizing encephalopathy, or ANE, a particularly severe form of the disease that results in rapid neurologic decline. Two in five children with ANE died.

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Only 1 in 6 of the kids with IAE who were eligible to be vaccinated had gotten the flu shot, health officials say.

The CDC recommends that everyone age 6 months and up get a flu vaccine. New this year, officials are allowing people to order FluMist to be mailed to them at home. FluMist is approved for people ages 2 through 49 and administered by nasal spray rather than injection.

Doctors have been concerned about declining flu vaccination levels. As of late April, just 49.2% of children had gotten a flu shot, lower than the 53.4% who had done so at the same point the previous season, according to preliminary national survey results. Both figures are much lower than the final flu vaccination rate for vaccine-eligible children during the 2019-20 season, which was 63.7%.

Among adults, 46.7% had gotten their flu shot, slightly down from the 47.4% at the same point last season, according to the preliminary survey results.

“Before the COVID-19 pandemic, flu vaccination coverage had been slowly increasing; downturns in coverage occurred during and after the pandemic. Flu vaccination levels have not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels,” the CDC said.

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Early data from the Southern Hemisphere indicate that the flu shot’s effectiveness was decent this season — cutting the risk of hospitalization by 50%.

Asia is already reporting plenty of flu cases.

“For influenza right now, it’s raging in Asia,” Chin-Hong said.

Flu is considered to be at epidemic levels in Japan — where news reports say this was the second-earliest start to the season in 20 years — and in Taiwan. Hong Kong health officials have described the flu situation in September and October, before shots became widely available, as “relatively severe.”

The situation there could provide a glimpse of how the flu season will play out in California and beyond.

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In the San Francisco Bay Area, officials are also closely monitoring “high” levels in wastewater of a specific kind of cold virus — enterovirus D68, or EV-D68. In rare cases, that virus can cause polio-like paralysis in children called acute flaccid myelitis, or AFM. High levels were reported in a large swath of the Silicon Valley and San Francisco, according to WastewaterSCAN. High levels have also been found in sewage in western San Bernardino County, including Ontario, Chino and Fontana.

The L.A. County Department of Public Health has not yet detected increased signals of EV-D68, and no cases of AFM have been reported this year in Los Angeles or Orange counties.

That virus can transmit through an infected person’s saliva and mucus and likely spreads “when an infected person coughs, sneezes or touches a surface that is then touched by others,” the CDC said.

Parents should call a doctor if their child suffers any symptoms of AFM, which include slurred speech, difficulty swallowing, difficulty moving the eyes, drooping eyelids, pain in the neck, back, arms or legs, weakness in the arm or legs or facial droop.

To protect yourself against respiratory viruses, experts recommend getting vaccinated, washing your hands often, keeping rooms well-ventilated, wearing face masks in crowded indoor public settings, and staying away from sick people.

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The California Department of Public Health recommends updated COVID-19 vaccines for everyone age 6 months to 23 months, seniors age 65 and up; as well as older children, teenagers and adults who either have risk factors for severe COVID, or are in close contact with at-risk people.

Children who have never been inoculated against COVID-19 should also get the vaccine, as should pregnant women and anyone else who wants to get the shot, the state says.

RSV immunizations are recommended for everyone age 75 and up, babies younger than 8 months, and pregnant women between 32 weeks to 36 weeks of gestation.

The immunizations are also recommended for adults age 50 to 74 with risk factors, as well as babies with risk factors between 8 months and 19 months. Older adults who have been previously immunized against RSV generally don’t need to get another vaccine, according to current guidelines.

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What’s in a Name? For These Snails, Legal Protection

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What’s in a Name? For These Snails, Legal Protection

The sun had barely risen over the Pacific Ocean when a small motorboat carrying a team of Indigenous artisans and Mexican biologists dropped anchor in a rocky cove near Bahías de Huatulco.

Mauro Habacuc Avendaño Luis, one of the craftsmen, was the first to wade to shore. With an agility belying his age, he struck out over the boulders exposed by low tide. Crouching on a slippery ledge pounded by surf, he reached inside a crevice between two rocks. There, lodged among the urchins, was a snail with a knobby gray shell the size of a walnut. The sight might not dazzle tourists who travel here to see humpback whales, but for Mr. Avendaño, 85, these drab little mollusks represent a way of life.

Marine snails in the genus Plicopurpura are sacred to the Mixtec people of Pinotepa de Don Luis, a small town in southwestern Oaxaca. Men like Mr. Avendaño have been sustainably “milking” them for radiant purple dye for at least 1,500 years. The color suffuses Mixtec textiles and spiritual beliefs. Called tixinda, it symbolizes fertility and death, as well as mythic ties between lunar cycles, women and the sea.

The future of these traditions — and the fate of the snails — are uncertain. The mollusks are subject to intense poaching pressure despite federal protections intended to protect them. Fishermen break them (and the other mollusks they eat) open and sell the meat to local restaurants. Tourists who comb the beaches pluck snails off the rocks and toss them aside.

A severe earthquake in 2020 thrust formerly submerged parts of their habitat above sea level, fatally tossing other mollusks in the snail’s food web to the air, and making once inaccessible places more available to poachers.

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Decades ago, dense clusters of snails the size of doorknobs were easy to find, according to Mr. Avendaño. “Full of snails,” he said, sweeping a calloused, violet-stained hand across the coves. Now, most of the snails he finds are small, just over an inch, and yield only a few milliliters of dye.

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Video: This Parrot Has No Beak, But Is at the Top of the Pecking Order

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Video: This Parrot Has No Beak, But Is at the Top of the Pecking Order

new video loaded: This Parrot Has No Beak, But Is at the Top of the Pecking Order

Bruce, a disabled kea parrot, is missing his top beak. The bird uses tools to keep himself healthy and developed a jousting technique that has made him the alpha male of his group.

By Meg Felling and Carl Zimmer

April 20, 2026

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Contributor: Focus on the real causes of the shortage in hormone treatments

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Contributor: Focus on the real causes of the shortage in hormone treatments

For months now, menopausal women across the U.S. have been unable to fill prescriptions for the estradiol patch, a long-established and safe hormone treatment. The news media has whipped up a frenzy over this scarcity, warning of a long-lasting nationwide shortage. The problem is real — but the explanations in the media coverage miss the mark. Real solutions depend on an accurate understanding of the causes.

Reporters, pharmaceutical companies and even some doctors have blamed women for causing the shortage, saying they were inspired by a “menopause moment” that has driven unprecedented demand. Such framing does a dangerous disservice to essential health advocacy.

In this narrative, there has been unprecedented demand, and it is explained in part by the Food and Drug Administration’s recent removal of the “black-box warning” from estradiol patches’ packaging. That inaccurate (and, quite frankly, terrifying) label had been required since a 2002 announcement overstated the link between certain menopause hormone treatments and breast cancer. Right-sizing and rewording the warning was long overdue. But the trouble with this narrative is that even after the black-box warning was removed, there has not been unprecedented demand.

Around 40% of menopausal women were prescribed hormone treatments in some form before the 2002 announcement. Use plummeted in its aftermath, dipping to less than 5% in 2020 and just 1.8% in 2024. According to the most recent data, the number has now settled back at the 5% mark. Unprecedented? Hardly. Modest at best.

Nor is estradiol a new or complex drug; the patch formulation has existed for decades, and generic versions are widely manufactured. There is no exotic ingredient, no rare supply chain dependency, no fluke that explains why women are suddenly being told their pharmacy is out of stock month after month.

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The story is far more an indictment of the broken insurance industry: market concentration, perverse incentives and the consequences of allowing insurance companies to own the pharmacy benefit managers that effectively control drug access for the majority of users. Three companies — CVS Caremark, Express Scripts and OptumRx — manage 79% of all prescription drug claims in the United States. Those companies are wholly owned subsidiaries of three insurance behemoths: CVS Health, Cigna and UnitedHealth Group, respectively. This means that the same corporation that sells you your insurance plan also decides which drugs get covered, at what price, and whether your pharmacy can stock them. This is called vertical integration. In another era, we might have called it a cartel. The resulting problems are not unique to hormone treatments; they have affected widely used medications including blood thinners, inhalers and antibiotics. When a low-cost generic such as estradiol — a medication with no blockbuster profit margins and no patent protection — runs into friction in this system, the friction is not random. It is structural. Every decision in that chain is filtered through the same corporate profit motive. And when the drug in question is an off-patent estradiol patch that has negligible profit margins because of generic competition but requires logistical investment to keep consistently in stock? The math on “how much does this company care about ensuring access” is not complicated.

Unfortunately, there is little financial incentive to ensure smooth, consistent access. There is, however, significant financial incentive to steer patients toward branded alternatives, or simply to let supply tighten — because the companies aren’t losing much profit if sales of that product dwindle. This is not a conspiracy theory: The Federal Trade Commission noted this dynamic in a report that documented how pharmacy benefit managers’ practices inflate costs, reduce competition and harm patient access, particularly for independent pharmacies and for generic drugs.

Any claim that the estradiol patch shortage is meaningfully caused by more women now demanding hormone treatments is a distraction. It is also misogyny, pure and simple, to imply that the solution to the shortage is for women’s health advocates to dial it down and for women to temper their expectations. The scarcity of estradiol patches is the outcome of a broken system refusing to provide adequate supply.

Meanwhile, there are a few strategies to cope.

  • Ask your prescriber about alternatives. Estradiol is available in multiple formulations, including gel, spray, cream, oral tablet, vaginal ring and weekly transdermal patch, which is a different product from the twice-weekly patch and may be more consistently available depending on manufacturer and region.
  • Consider an online pharmacy. Many are doing a good job locating and filling these prescriptions from outside the pharmacy benefit manager system.
  • Call ahead. Patch shortages are inconsistent across regions and distributors. A call to pharmacies in your area, or a broader geographic radius if you’re able, can locate stock that your regular pharmacy doesn’t have.
  • Consider a compounding pharmacy. These sources can sometimes meet needs when commercially manufactured products are inaccessible. The hormones used are the same FDA-regulated bulk ingredients.

Beyond those Band-Aid solutions, more Americans need to fight for systemic change. The FTC report exists because Congress asked for it and committed to legislation that will address at least some of the problems. The FDA took action to change the labeling on estrogen in the face of citizen and medical experts’ pressure; it should do more now to demand transparency from patch manufacturers.

Most importantly, it is on all of us to call out the cracks in the current system. Instead of repeating “there’s a patch shortage” or a “surge in demand,” say that a shockingly small minority of menopausal women still even get hormonal treatments prescribed at all, and three drug companies control the vast majority of claims in this country. Those are the real problems that need real solutions.

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Jennifer Weiss-Wolf, the executive director of the Birnbaum Women’s Leadership Center at New York University School of Law, is the author of the forthcoming book When in Menopause: A User’s Manual & Citizen’s Guide. Suzanne Gilberg, an obstetrician and gynecologist in Los Angeles, is the author of “Menopause Bootcamp.”

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