Politics
Why Donald Trump still could not conquer Orange County
Donald Trump posted notable gains in Orange County during the November election, but it was not enough to win the increasingly purple county that has become a suburban battleground between Republicans and Democrats — and a reflection of the demographic political realignment unfolding across the nation.
Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When it comes to presidential politics, Orange County has backed Democrats since 2016, with increasingly blue areas such as Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine besting more red areas such as Huntington Beach and south Orange County.
But experts say the 2024 results offer some warning signs for Democrats.
“What the early numbers indicate is that Donald Trump made inroads with minority voters including probably substantial gains with Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, a former strategist for Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer. “What we’re hearing is that he made those same kinds of gains in other communities similar to Orange County across the country. He also made gains with traditional suburban voters, which he struggled with in 2020.”
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data specialist, said Trump probably did better in the county because of lower Democratic turnout this year compared with 2020, as well as voters being familiar — and potentially comfortable — with Trump because of their experience during his prior tenure.
“It may also be Trump has been normalized, in an odd way,” Mitchell said. “He’s been in our political eyesight for the last decade now. Maybe voters like the economy better under Trump.”
In 2016, Clinton received roughly 100,000 more votes in Orange County than Trump, making her the first Democrat county voters selected for the presidency in 80 years. In 2020, Biden fared even better, besting Trump by more than 137,500 votes. Now, Harris has edged out Trump, but the margin of victory is on trend to be much tighter than seen in past elections.
Votes in Orange County are still being counted and final numbers aren’t required to be certified by the county until Dec. 5 and by the state until Dec. 13. But it’s clear, experts say, that Trump harnessed the disillusionment felt by voters who are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economic pains that have beset many living in the suburbs.
“People in the press and people like me still so often take Trump literally, whereas voters lived through this once and the apocalypse didn’t happen and they liked the economy better,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran GOP strategist and Trump critic who previously advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He noted that Trump’s improved performance in Orange County was not an outlier.
“He did better — look at how he did in New York, on the Eastern Seaboard, in Massachusetts,” Stutzman said. “There are red dots that never existed the last few decades.”
Still, there were some bright spots for Democrats, notably being able to hold on to a congressional seat that became open because Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine pursued an unsuccessful Senate bid, and flipping the 45th Congressional District. In that race, first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach in a hotly contested race that became one of the most expensive in the country.
A UC Irvine poll released last year conveyed discord among Orange County voters, particularly Republicans and those who choose not to identify with a political party, who said despite their optimism about Orange County and somewhat about California, they did not have a good feeling about the future of America.
“The [election] results are much more a statement about people’s dissatisfaction with the current national administration than some grand statement about Trump or Republicans,” said Jon Gould, dean of the university’s School of Social Ecology.
Orange County has been turning bluer since 2012, but that trend faded in 2024
Harris won in Anaheim, Buena Park, La Habra and Santa Ana — but her advantage over Trump was 10 to 15 percentage points lower than Biden’s was in 2020.
Preliminary data as of Nov. 25
Orange County Registrar of Voters
Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee and Sandhya Kambhampati LOS ANGELES TIMES
“This is not a sign that Orange County is suddenly a red county,” Gould said. “This is exactly what it means to be a purple county.”
Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the deep-blue city of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandchildren in mind. The high housing costs and general lack of affordability have made it a challenge for middle-class couples, like her son and daughter-in-law, to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County.
“Who is looking out for them?” Monda said. “They’re barely getting by, and quite honestly, the Democrats don’t seem to care. While I know Trump is a billionaire, I think he understands the needs of a middle-class person.”
Economics and Trump’s stance on immigration were the two main drivers that motivated her to vote for him. While she’s not always a fan of Trump’s behavior, she loves his policies. It’s not surprising, she said, that others in Orange County were swayed to his side as well.
“I think people have had enough of the Democrat party line, enough of the economy, enough of the whole platform. The things they espouse they just don’t work,” Monda said. “I think people in California are waking up.”
Trump’s improvement in the county has generated excitement among California Republicans who for years have tried to strengthen its hold on Orange County as Democratic voter registration grew and elections became more competitive.
For decades, Orange County was a conservative stronghold — the birthplace of former President Nixon, the cradle of Ronald Reagan’s ascent to the governor’s mansion and then the White House, and, for decades, a virtual synonym for the Republican Party of California.
The county’s shift over the last decade from deeply red to a more politically and demographically diverse region has fascinated the public for years.
“Orange County is a battleground,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former executive director of the California GOP.
Trump’s popularity boost among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally could very well also be at play in swing counties such as Orange County. Republicans in the county for years have sought to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to their party with mixed success, and Trump’s performance could signal gains among these voter blocs, as well as Black Americans. He also won back some suburban women who turned against the Republican Party during his 2016 campaign and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal protection for abortion access in 2022.
Democrats leaned heavily into messaging about the loss of reproductive rights during this year’s campaign, in television ads and during their convention when they nominated Harris. However, Stutzman contended that the argument failed to resonate with suburban women in affluent areas such as Orange County as much as Democrats expected it to.
Orange County saw a bigger drop in Democratic votes than Republican votes from 2020 to 2024
Turnout in every city in the county was lower this year than in 2020.
Percent decline in votes from 2020 to 2024
Percent decline in votes from 2020 to 2024
Preliminary data as of Nov. 25
Orange County Registrar of Voters
Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee and Sandhya Kambhampati LOS ANGELES TIMES
“Most women in America still have access — an overwhelming majority have access to abortion,” he said. “I just don’t know if there’s a connection, any real existential threat that their rights are being further eroded than they have been.”
Though Harris won the majority of votes across deep-blue California, Trump was on track to win Butte, Stanislaus, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, all areas that Biden carried in 2020. Trump also gained ground in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles County compared with 2016 and 2020.
“In order for Trump to win Orange County, he had to make inroads with minority voters, and he did that through issues that mattered to them and the struggles they’re facing,” Corless said.
Democrats’ ability to register voters in Orange County has also slowed.
Between October 2022 and October 2024, the Democratic Party in Orange County grew by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the Republican Party’s numbers swelled by 31,000 people, according to data from the California secretary of state.
In the years that the GOP voter registration waned, the number of nonparty-preference voters grew. Many longtime Republicans in Orange County, irritated by Trump’s outlandish speaking style and policy positions, branded themselves as “Never Trumpers.” But Republicans in Orange County have made a concerted effort this cycle to reregister former GOP voters and push early voting and mail ballots, a recognition of how much Trump’s opposition to such efforts harmed the party in 2020.
“When Trump was first elected, he was not everybody’s favorite flavor of ice cream, and I think you saw a lot of Republicans who decided to become independent,” Fleischman said. “I think as people have decided that they’re OK with Trump, they’ve been coming back to the party.”
The Republican Party of Orange County went as far as hosting a ballot collection day on Oct. 11 in which Republican Party offices served as designated ballot-drop locations. The move, it said at the time, makes voting more accessible while “maintaining the highest level election integrity.”
Politics
Lawmakers weigh impeachment articles for Bondi over Epstein file omissions
WASHINGTON — Lawmakers unhappy with Justice Department decisions to heavily redact or withhold documents from a legally mandated release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein threatened Saturday to launch impeachment proceedings against those responsible, including Pam Bondi, the U.S. attorney general.
Democrats and Republicans alike criticized the omissions, while Democrats also accused the Justice Department of intentionally scrubbing the release of at least one image of President Trump, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) suggesting it could portend “one of the biggest coverups in American history.”
Trump administration officials have said the release fully complied with the law, and that its redactions were crafted only to protect victims of Epstein, a disgraced financier and convicted sex offender accused of abusing hundreds of women and girls before his death in 2019.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), an author of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which required the release of the investigative trove, blasted Bondi in a social media video, accusing her of denying the existence of many of the records for months, only to push out “an incomplete release with too many redactions” in response to — and in violation of — the new law.
Khanna said he and the bill’s co-sponsor, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), were “exploring all options” for responding and forcing more disclosures, including by pursuing “the impeachment of people at Justice,” asking courts to hold officials blocking the release in contempt, and “referring for prosecution those who are obstructing justice.”
“We will work with the survivors to demand the full release of these files,” Khanna said.
He later added in a CNN interview that he and Massie were drafting articles of impeachment against Bondi, though they had not decided whether to bring them forward.
Massie, in his own social media post, said Khanna was correct in rejecting the Friday release as insufficient, saying that it “grossly fails to comply with both the spirit and the letter of the law.”
The lawmakers’ view that the Justice Department’s document dump failed to comply with the law echoed similar complaints across the political spectrum Saturday, as the full scope of redactions and other withholdings came into focus.
The frustration had already sharply escalated late Friday, after Fox News Digital reported that the names and identifiers of not just victims but of “politically exposed individuals and government officials” had been redacted from the records — which would violate the law, and which Justice Department officials denied.
Among the critics was Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who cited the Fox reporting in an exasperated post late Friday to X.
“The whole point was NOT to protect the ‘politically exposed individuals and government officials.’ That’s exactly what MAGA has always wanted, that’s what drain the swamp actually means. It means expose them all, the rich powerful elites who are corrupt and commit crimes, NOT redact their names and protect them,” Greene wrote.
Senior Justice Department officials later called in to Fox News to dispute the report. But the removal of a file published in the Friday evening release, capturing a desk in Epstein’s home with a drawer filled of photos of Trump, reinforced bipartisan concerns that references to the president had been illegally withheld.
In a release of documents from the Epstein family estate by the House Oversight Committee this fall, Trump’s name was featured over 1,000 times — more than any other public figure.
“If they’re taking this down, just imagine how much more they’re trying to hide,” Schumer wrote on X. “This could be one of the biggest coverups in American history.”
Several victims also said the release was insufficient. “It’s really kind of another slap in the face,” Alicia Arden, who went to the police to report that Epstein had abused her in 1997, told CNN. “I wanted all the files to come out, like they said that they were going to.”
Trump, who signed the act into law after having worked to block it from getting a vote, was conspicuously quiet on the matter. In a long speech in North Carolina on Friday night, he did not mention it.
However, White House officials and Justice Department leaders rejected the notion that the release was incomplete or out of compliance with the law, or that the names of politicians had been redacted.
“The only redactions being applied to the documents are those required by law — full stop,” said Deputy Atty. Gen. Todd Blanche. “Consistent with the statute and applicable laws, we are not redacting the names of individuals or politicians unless they are a victim.”
Other Republicans defended the administration. Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chair of the House Oversight Committee, said the administration “is delivering unprecedented transparency in the Epstein case and will continue releasing documents.”
Epstein died in a Manhattan jail awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. He’d been convicted in 2008 of procuring a child for prostitution in Florida, but served only 13 months in custody in what many condemned as a sweetheart plea deal for a well-connected and rich defendant.
Epstein’s acts of abuse have attracted massive attention, including among many within Trump’s political base, in part because of unanswered questions surrounding which of his many powerful friends may have also been implicated in crimes against children. Some of those questions have swirled around Trump, who was friends with Epstein for years before the two had what the president has described as a falling out.
Evidence has emerged in recent months that suggests Trump may have had knowledge of Epstein’s crimes during their friendship.
Epstein wrote in a 2019 email, released by the House Oversight Committee, that Trump “knew about the girls.” In a 2011 email to Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted of conspiring with Epstein to help him sexually abuse girls, Epstein wrote that “the dog that hasn’t barked is trump. [Victim] spent hours at my house with him … he has never once been mentioned.”
Trump has denied any wrongdoing.
The records released Friday contained few if any major new revelations, but did include a complaint against Epstein filed with the FBI back in 1996 — which the FBI did little with, substantiating long-standing fears among Epstein’s victims that his crimes could have been stopped years earlier.
Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), one of the president’s most consistent critics, wrote on X that Bondi should appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee to explain under oath the extensive redactions and omissions, which he called a “willful violation of the law.”
“The Trump Justice Department has had months to keep their promise to release all of the Epstein Files,” Schiff wrote. “Epstein’s survivors and the American people need answers now.”
Politics
Sen Murphy warns ‘people are going to die’ as Congress punts on expiring Obamacare subsidies
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A bipartisan Obamacare fix remains out of reach in the Senate, for now, and lawmakers can’t agree on who is at fault.
While many agree that the forthcoming healthcare cliff will cause financial pain, the partisan divide quickly devolved into pointing the finger across the aisle at who owns the looming healthcare premium spikes that Americans who use the healthcare exchange will face.
Part of the finger-pointing has yielded another surprising agreement: Lawmakers don’t see the fast-approaching expiration of the Biden-era enhanced Obamacare subsidies as Congress failing to act in time.
“Obviously, it’s not a failure of Congress to act,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told Fox News Digital. “It’s a failure of Republicans to act. Democrats are united and wanting to expand subsidies. Republicans want premium increases to go up.”
Partisan rancor over Obamacare has seeped into how lawmakers view the effect that expiring subsidies will have on their constituents. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., argued that it was a “life or death” situation, while Republicans contended that Democrats set up the very cliff they maligned. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)
DEMOCRATS’ LAST-MINUTE MOVE TO BLOCK GOP FUNDING PLAN SENDS LAWMAKERS HOME EARLY
Senate Republicans and Democrats both tried, and failed, to advance their own partisan plans to replace or extend the subsidies earlier this month. And since then, no action has been taken to deal with the fast-approaching issue, guaranteeing that the subsidies will lapse at the end of the year.
A report published last month by Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit healthcare think tank, found that Americans who use the credits will see an average increase of 114% in their premium costs.
The increase can vary depending on how high above the poverty level a person is. The original premium subsidies set a cap at 400% above the poverty level, while the enhanced subsidies, which were passed during the COVID-19 pandemic, torched the cap.
For example, a person 60 years or older making 401% of the poverty level, or about $62,000 per year, would on average see their premium prices double. That number can skyrocket depending on the state. Wyoming clocks in at the highest spike at 421%.
SENATE MULLS NEXT STEPS AFTER DUELING OBAMACARE FIXES GO UP IN FLAMES
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., doesn’t want to blow up Obamacare or get rid of Obamacare subsidies, but he does want to provide Americans with more options for healthcare. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
In Murphy’s home state of Connecticut, premiums under the same parameters would hike in price by 316%.
“When these do lapse, people are going to die,” Murphy said. “I mean, I was talking to a couple a few months ago who have two parents, both with chronic, potentially life-threatening illnesses, and they will only be able to afford insurance for one of them. So they’re talking about which parent is going to survive to raise their three kids. The stakes are life and death.”
Both sides hold opposing views on the solution. Senate Republicans argue that the credits effectively subsidize insurance companies, not patients, by funneling money directly to them, and that the program is rife with fraud.
Senate Democrats want to extend the subsidies as they are, and are willing to negotiate fixes down the line. But for the GOP, they want to see some immediate reforms, like income caps, anti-fraud measures and more stringent anti-abortion language tied to the subsidies.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who produced his own healthcare plan that would convert subsidies into health savings accounts (HSAs), argued that congressional Democrats “set this up to expire.”
SENATE REPUBLICANS LAND ON OBAMACARE FIX, TEE UP DUELING VOTE WITH DEMS
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., panned Senate Democrats’ Obamacare subsidy proposal as “obviously designed to fail.” (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)
But he doesn’t share the view that the subsidies’ expected expiration is a life-or-death situation.
“I’m not taxing somebody who makes 20 bucks an hour to pay for healthcare for somebody who makes half a million dollars a year, that’s what they did,” he told Fox News Digital. “All they did was mask the increase in healthcare costs. That’s all they did with it.”
Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., similarly scoffed at the notion, and told Fox News Digital, “The Democrat plan to extend COVID-era Obamacare subsidies might help less than half a percent of the American population.”
“The Republican plan brings down healthcare costs for 100% of Americans,” he said. “More competition, expands health savings accounts. That needs to be the focus.”
Democrats are also not hiding their disdain for the partisan divide between their approaches to healthcare.
Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, told Fox News Digital that the idea that this “is a congressional failure and not a Republican policy is preposterous.”
“They’ve hated the Affordable Care Act since its inception and tried to repeal it at every possible opportunity,” he said, referring to Obamacare. “The president hates ACA, speaker hates ACA, majority leader hates ACA, rank-and-file hate ACA. And so this is not some failure of bipartisanship.”
While the partisan rancor runs deep on the matter of Obamacare, there are Republicans and Democrats working together to build a new plan. Still, it wouldn’t deal with the rapidly approaching Dec. 31 deadline to extend the subsidies.
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., predicted that the Senate would have a long road to travel before a bipartisan plan came together in the new year, but he didn’t rule it out.
“It’s the Christmas season. It would take a Christmas miracle to execute on actually getting something done there,” he said. “But, you know, I think there’s a potential path, but it’ll be heavy lift.”
Politics
Column: What Epstein ‘hoax’? The facts are bad enough
Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky and Woody Allen were among the familiar faces in the latest batch of photographs released by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee in connection to the late Jeffrey Epstein. With the Justice Department preparing to make additional files public, the images underscore an uncomfortable truth for us all: The convicted sex offender moved comfortably among some of the most intelligent men in the world. Rhodes scholars, technology leaders and artists.
Also in the release was a photograph of a woman’s lower leg and foot on what appears to be a bed, with a paperback copy of Vladimir Nabokov’s “Lolita” visible in the background. The 1955 novel centers on a middle-aged man’s sexual obsession with a 12-year-old girl. Epstein, a serial sexual abuser, famously nicknamed one of his private planes “The Lolita Express.” And we are to believe that some of the globe’s brightest minds could not put the dots together?
Donald Trump, who once described himself as “a very stable genius,” included.
“I’ve known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy,” Trump told New York magazine in 2002. “He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”
Later, the two had a public falling out, and Trump has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. Great. But denial after the fact is only one side of this story. The other is harder to digest: Either the self-proclaimed “very stable genius” spent nearly two decades around Epstein without recognizing what was happening in plain sight — or he recognized it and chose silence. Neither explanation reflects on intelligence as much as it does on character. No wonder Trump’s defenders keep raising the most overused word in American politics today: hoax.
“Once again, House Democrats are selectively releasing cherry-picked photos with random redactions to try and create a false narrative,” said White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson. “Here’s the reality: Democrats like Stacey Plaskett and Hakeem Jeffries were soliciting money and meetings from Epstein after he was a convicted sex offender. The Democrat hoax against President Trump has been repeatedly debunked, and the Trump administration has done more for Epstein’s victims than Democrats ever have by repeatedly calling for transparency, releasing thousands of pages of documents and calling for further investigations into Epstein’s Democrat friends.”
Jackson has a point.
Democrats were cherry-picking which photos to release, even if many of the men pictured were aligned with progressives. That includes the president, who was a Democrat when he and Epstein were running together in New York in the 2000s. Trump didn’t register as a Republican until 2009. Now whether the choice of photos and timing was designed to shield political friends or weaponize against perceived enemies isn’t clear. What is clear is that it doesn’t take a genius to see that none of this is a hoax.
The victims are real. The flight logs are real. The millions that flowed into Epstein’s bank account have wire transfer confirmation numbers that can be traced. What Democrats are doing with the information is politics as usual. And you don’t want politics to dictate who gets justice and who gets vilified.
Whatever the politicians’ intentions, Americans can decide how to react to the disclosures. And what the men around Epstein did with the information they gathered on his jet or his island fits squarely at the heart of the national conversation about masculinity. What kind of men could allow such abuse to continue?
I’m not saying the intelligent men in Epstein’s ecosystem did something criminal, but the lack of whistleblowing before his arrest raises questions about their fortitude for right and wrong. And the Trump White House trying to characterize this conversation as a partisan witch hunt — a hoax — is an ineffective strategy because the pattern with their use of that word is so clear.
We saw what happened on Jan. 6, and Trump tells us the investigation is a hoax. We hear the recording of him pressuring Georgia officials to find votes, and he tells us the investigation is a hoax. Trump campaigned on affordability issues — the cost of bacon, no taxes on tips — but now that he’s in office such talk is a hoax by Democrats. As if we don’t know the price of groceries in real time. Ten years ago, Trump told us he had proof that President Obama wasn’t born in the U.S. We’re still waiting.
In his book, “Art of the Deal,” Trump framed his lies as “truthful hyperbole” but by now we should understand for him hyperbole matters more than truth — and his felony convictions confirm that some of his claims were indeed simply false.
So if there is a hoax, it is the notion that none of the brilliant men whom Epstein kept in his orbit had any idea what was going on.
YouTube: @LZGrandersonShow
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Ideas expressed in the piece
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The release of photographs and documents from the House Oversight Committee demonstrates that Epstein moved freely among some of the world’s most accomplished and intelligent individuals, including Rhodes scholars, technology leaders and artists.
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Either these prominent men failed to recognize warning signs despite obvious indicators like Epstein’s “Lolita Express” nickname referencing a novel about child sexual abuse, or they recognized the reality and chose silence—neither explanation reflects well on their character.
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Claims that this is a hoax lack credibility because the evidence is concrete: the victims are real[1], the flight logs are documented[1][3], and the millions flowing through Epstein’s bank accounts have verifiable wire transfer confirmation numbers.
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The apparent lack of whistleblowing from the men in Epstein’s ecosystem before his 2019 arrest raises serious questions about their moral fortitude and willingness to stand against wrongdoing.
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The Trump administration’s strategy of characterizing these disclosures as a partisan witch hunt is ineffective, given the pattern of applying the term “hoax” to numerous matters that subsequently proved to be substantiated, from investigations into January 6 to documented pressuring of Georgia officials.
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Regardless of whether Democrats’ selection of which photographs to release was politically motivated, legitimate questions about masculinity and moral responsibility remain central to the national conversation.
Different views on the topic
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Democrats selectively released cherry-picked photographs with random redactions designed to create a false narrative while attempting to shield their own political allies, including figures like Stacey Plaskett and Hakeem Jeffries who solicited money and meetings from Epstein after his conviction.
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The timing and selection of photographs released by House Democrats appear strategically designed to weaponize the Epstein matter against political opponents while deflecting scrutiny from Democratic figures who also maintained connections to the convicted sex offender[2].
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The Trump administration has demonstrated greater commitment to transparency on the Epstein matter through the release of thousands of pages of documents and calls for further investigations into Epstein’s connections to Democratic associates.
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Characterizing this as purely a partisan response overlooks the fact that prominent figures across the political spectrum, including those who were Democrats when they associated with Epstein in the 2000s, had connections requiring examination[2].
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