Politics
Why Donald Trump still could not conquer Orange County
Donald Trump posted notable gains in Orange County during the November election, but it was not enough to win the increasingly purple county that has become a suburban battleground between Republicans and Democrats — and a reflection of the demographic political realignment unfolding across the nation.
Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When it comes to presidential politics, Orange County has backed Democrats since 2016, with increasingly blue areas such as Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine besting more red areas such as Huntington Beach and south Orange County.
But experts say the 2024 results offer some warning signs for Democrats.
“What the early numbers indicate is that Donald Trump made inroads with minority voters including probably substantial gains with Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, a former strategist for Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer. “What we’re hearing is that he made those same kinds of gains in other communities similar to Orange County across the country. He also made gains with traditional suburban voters, which he struggled with in 2020.”
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data specialist, said Trump probably did better in the county because of lower Democratic turnout this year compared with 2020, as well as voters being familiar — and potentially comfortable — with Trump because of their experience during his prior tenure.
“It may also be Trump has been normalized, in an odd way,” Mitchell said. “He’s been in our political eyesight for the last decade now. Maybe voters like the economy better under Trump.”
In 2016, Clinton received roughly 100,000 more votes in Orange County than Trump, making her the first Democrat county voters selected for the presidency in 80 years. In 2020, Biden fared even better, besting Trump by more than 137,500 votes. Now, Harris has edged out Trump, but the margin of victory is on trend to be much tighter than seen in past elections.
Votes in Orange County are still being counted and final numbers aren’t required to be certified by the county until Dec. 5 and by the state until Dec. 13. But it’s clear, experts say, that Trump harnessed the disillusionment felt by voters who are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economic pains that have beset many living in the suburbs.
“People in the press and people like me still so often take Trump literally, whereas voters lived through this once and the apocalypse didn’t happen and they liked the economy better,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran GOP strategist and Trump critic who previously advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He noted that Trump’s improved performance in Orange County was not an outlier.
“He did better — look at how he did in New York, on the Eastern Seaboard, in Massachusetts,” Stutzman said. “There are red dots that never existed the last few decades.”
Still, there were some bright spots for Democrats, notably being able to hold on to a congressional seat that became open because Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine pursued an unsuccessful Senate bid, and flipping the 45th Congressional District. In that race, first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach in a hotly contested race that became one of the most expensive in the country.
A UC Irvine poll released last year conveyed discord among Orange County voters, particularly Republicans and those who choose not to identify with a political party, who said despite their optimism about Orange County and somewhat about California, they did not have a good feeling about the future of America.
“The [election] results are much more a statement about people’s dissatisfaction with the current national administration than some grand statement about Trump or Republicans,” said Jon Gould, dean of the university’s School of Social Ecology.
Orange County has been turning bluer since 2012, but that trend faded in 2024
Harris won in Anaheim, Buena Park, La Habra and Santa Ana — but her advantage over Trump was 10 to 15 percentage points lower than Biden’s was in 2020.
Preliminary data as of Nov. 25
Orange County Registrar of Voters
Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee and Sandhya Kambhampati LOS ANGELES TIMES
“This is not a sign that Orange County is suddenly a red county,” Gould said. “This is exactly what it means to be a purple county.”
Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the deep-blue city of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandchildren in mind. The high housing costs and general lack of affordability have made it a challenge for middle-class couples, like her son and daughter-in-law, to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County.
“Who is looking out for them?” Monda said. “They’re barely getting by, and quite honestly, the Democrats don’t seem to care. While I know Trump is a billionaire, I think he understands the needs of a middle-class person.”
Economics and Trump’s stance on immigration were the two main drivers that motivated her to vote for him. While she’s not always a fan of Trump’s behavior, she loves his policies. It’s not surprising, she said, that others in Orange County were swayed to his side as well.
“I think people have had enough of the Democrat party line, enough of the economy, enough of the whole platform. The things they espouse they just don’t work,” Monda said. “I think people in California are waking up.”
Trump’s improvement in the county has generated excitement among California Republicans who for years have tried to strengthen its hold on Orange County as Democratic voter registration grew and elections became more competitive.
For decades, Orange County was a conservative stronghold — the birthplace of former President Nixon, the cradle of Ronald Reagan’s ascent to the governor’s mansion and then the White House, and, for decades, a virtual synonym for the Republican Party of California.
The county’s shift over the last decade from deeply red to a more politically and demographically diverse region has fascinated the public for years.
“Orange County is a battleground,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former executive director of the California GOP.
Trump’s popularity boost among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally could very well also be at play in swing counties such as Orange County. Republicans in the county for years have sought to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to their party with mixed success, and Trump’s performance could signal gains among these voter blocs, as well as Black Americans. He also won back some suburban women who turned against the Republican Party during his 2016 campaign and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal protection for abortion access in 2022.
Democrats leaned heavily into messaging about the loss of reproductive rights during this year’s campaign, in television ads and during their convention when they nominated Harris. However, Stutzman contended that the argument failed to resonate with suburban women in affluent areas such as Orange County as much as Democrats expected it to.
Orange County saw a bigger drop in Democratic votes than Republican votes from 2020 to 2024
Turnout in every city in the county was lower this year than in 2020.
Percent decline in votes from 2020 to 2024
Percent decline in votes from 2020 to 2024
Preliminary data as of Nov. 25
Orange County Registrar of Voters
Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee and Sandhya Kambhampati LOS ANGELES TIMES
“Most women in America still have access — an overwhelming majority have access to abortion,” he said. “I just don’t know if there’s a connection, any real existential threat that their rights are being further eroded than they have been.”
Though Harris won the majority of votes across deep-blue California, Trump was on track to win Butte, Stanislaus, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, all areas that Biden carried in 2020. Trump also gained ground in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles County compared with 2016 and 2020.
“In order for Trump to win Orange County, he had to make inroads with minority voters, and he did that through issues that mattered to them and the struggles they’re facing,” Corless said.
Democrats’ ability to register voters in Orange County has also slowed.
Between October 2022 and October 2024, the Democratic Party in Orange County grew by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the Republican Party’s numbers swelled by 31,000 people, according to data from the California secretary of state.
In the years that the GOP voter registration waned, the number of nonparty-preference voters grew. Many longtime Republicans in Orange County, irritated by Trump’s outlandish speaking style and policy positions, branded themselves as “Never Trumpers.” But Republicans in Orange County have made a concerted effort this cycle to reregister former GOP voters and push early voting and mail ballots, a recognition of how much Trump’s opposition to such efforts harmed the party in 2020.
“When Trump was first elected, he was not everybody’s favorite flavor of ice cream, and I think you saw a lot of Republicans who decided to become independent,” Fleischman said. “I think as people have decided that they’re OK with Trump, they’ve been coming back to the party.”
The Republican Party of Orange County went as far as hosting a ballot collection day on Oct. 11 in which Republican Party offices served as designated ballot-drop locations. The move, it said at the time, makes voting more accessible while “maintaining the highest level election integrity.”
Politics
Rubio sanctions Cuban groups with ties to US nonprofit network funded by communist donor Neville Roy Singham
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio put U.S. organizations on notice: they can no longer do business with a key Cuban organization that has spent over six decades – since the launch of Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959 – cultivating relationships with U.S. activists and groups, many of them now funded by communist American tycoon Neville Roy Singham.
The sanctions target the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, known by its Spanish acronym ICAP, an organization founded by Castro in 1960 to spread Marxist ideology and support for Cuba. Long ago, U.S. officials and intelligence assessments concluded ICAP is a key component of Cuba’s intelligence apparatus.
“For decades, Cuba has been the world capital for radical left-wing terrorism,” Rubio said. “The regime in Havana has recruited, trained and backed violent Marxist and third-worldist movements across our hemisphere and beyond.”
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Marco Rubio moves to put sanctions on a group that Fidel Castro established in 1960 to spread Cuba’s communist influence in the world. (Sven Creutzmann/Mambo Photography/Getty Images; Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Earlier this year, ICAP worked with U.S. nonprofits, including the People’s Forum, Progressive International and CodePink, to organize a March “convoy” that included controversial Marxist streamer Hasan Piker landing in Cuba to support Cuba’s communist party.
The trip has since attracted federal scrutiny, with CodePink co-founder Medea Benjamin confirming she received questions from federal officials about the trip, investigating whether she violated sanctions.
Late last month, Fox News Digital published a three-part series, reporting that federal investigators are examining Cuba’s alleged malign foreign influence operation in the U.S., investigating a network of 145 groups with collective revenues of about $1 billion, promoting Cuba’s agenda and communist ideology.
“Today, we are targeting the network that enables and funds Cuba’s subversive and radical operations,” Rubio said.
The groups working closely with ICAP include the People’s Forum, CodePink, BreakThrough News and Tricontinental, funded by Singham, a Marxist tech tycoon living in Shanghai. As reported, Singham has pumped $285 million into nonprofits since 2017 that have built very close relationships with ICAP and the communist government of Cuba.
Singham is married to CodePink co-founder Jodie Evans.
INSIDE CUBA’S FOREIGN INFLUENCE CAMPAIGN: FROM THE VENCEREMOS BRIGADE OF THE 1960S TO SATURDAY IN A UNION HALL
ICAP is today led by Fernando González Llort, one of five former Cuban intelligence officers, known as the “Cuban Five,” convicted in the U.S. years ago on espionage-related charges and released after spending time in jail.
Critics say ICAP acts as a gateway for revolutionaries from around the world to get embedded in the propaganda, organizing tactics and strategic goals of the Communist Party of Cuba. ICAP has denied wrongdoing and says it’s a civil society organization.
ICAP was one of five entities that Rubio designated as off-limits under sanctions authorities established by President Donald Trump’s Cuba executive order. The sanctions also target Cuba’s Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (MINFAR), the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (CDR), Minera La Victoria S.A. and the state-run tourism company Amistur Cuba S.A., which has arranged trips to Cuba with U.S. nonprofits in the Singham network.
Experts said the move signals that the Trump administration is focused not only on the Cuban government but also on U.S. institutions that U.S. officials believe help project Cuban influence internationally.
A declassified CIA report from the Cold War era, “Cuba: Castro’s Propaganda Apparatus and Foreign Policy,” described Cuba’s international propaganda and influence activities as a central component of Castro’s foreign policy strategy. The report named ICAP among organizations that act as important instruments for cultivating sympathetic political movements abroad and extending Cuban influence beyond the island.
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One of the most notable examples was the Venceremos Brigade, a Cuba solidarity program established in 1969 that brought generations of American activists to the island through exchanges organized with Cuban authorities and institutions including ICAP.
The program became one of the most visible pipelines connecting American activists to the Cuban revolutionary government.
Today, the Venceremos Brigade operates as a fiscally-sponsored project of the People’s Forum.
Lawmakers and federal authorities are examining whether organizations funded by Singham have acted on behalf of foreign interests without properly registering and have helped amplify messaging favorable to the Chinese Communist Party and the Communist Party of Cuba.
Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) listens to Progressive International’s general coordinator, David Adler, during an event at the Cuban Institute for Friendship with the Peoples (ICAP) in Havana, on March 21, 2026. (Ernesto Mastrascusa/AFP via Getty Images)
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During the recent convoy in March, Progressive International co-founder David Adler appeared alongside Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and ICAP President González at an official event hosted by ICAP.
Years ago, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass participated in Venceremos Brigade trips, a connection that her mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt resurfaced during her campaign. Bass has denied any wrongdoing.
Supporters of such exchanges describe them as educational and humanitarian programs intended to foster international understanding. Critics argue they function as political influence operations designed to build support for the Cuban regime and its ideological objectives.
The Cuban government condemned Rubio’s sanctions shortly after the announcement.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel accused the United States of escalating economic pressure against Cuba and attempting to intensify tensions between the two countries.
Hasan Piker, a Democratic Socialists of America member, and CodePink co-founder Jodie Evans meet in Havana, Cuba, as part of a “United Front” supporting the communist regime. (CodePink via Storyful)
“The Treasury Department has added new names of Cuban leaders, organizations and companies to an illegitimate sanctions list,” Díaz-Canel wrote on social media. “They are aimed at reinforcing the blockade measures and the scenario of conflict between Cuba and the United States.”
Rubio’s warning extended beyond the sanctioned entities.
The action signals that the administration is increasingly focused on the networks, partnerships and influence channels that U.S. officials believe have helped advance Cuban interests abroad long after the Cold War officially ended.
“Anyone providing services to these sanctioned actors is at risk of sanctions themselves,” he said. “Foreign banks and other companies that provide services to these entities should freeze those activities.”
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Fox News Digital’s Reagan Schroeder contributed to this report.
Politics
Commentary: No, Mr. Hilton, our elections are not ‘a joke.’ It’s time for you to stand up to Trump
Well, that didn’t take long.
A day after California’s primary election, President Trump took to social media with baseless claims of election fraud — predictable, but also dangerous.
“Look what’s happening in California, the Dumocrats, right before our very eyes, are stealing the Vote,” Trump wrote in one post.
“There’s BIG cheating by the Dumocrats in California,” he wrote in another, apparently enamored of his latest juvenile slur.
Never mind that his candidate, Steve Hilton, is in the lead — for now anyway.
California has once again become the main dish on Trump’s buffet of bull-hockey as he continues to undermine democracy and consolidate authoritarian power, using this disingenuous and patently untrue narrative that American elections are rigged by shadowy Democratic forces working in collusion with illegal immigrants.
That last part is called the Great Replacement Theory, the idea that “elites” are replacing white people — and white voters — with Black and brown immigrants in a bid to destroy white culture. It’s at the heart of Trump’s voter fraud allegations.
The twist this time is that Hilton, the man who wants to represent all Californians, seems to be jumping on the election fraud conspiracy train with the president. I get it, there’s the MAGA base to feed, and it’s a base that feasts on outrage and fakery. Serving up resentment glazed with lies and propaganda has been the MAGA playbook for years under Trump, a strategy that no one can deny has been heartbreakingly effective.
But Hilton is a smart man and must certainly know that voter fraud is rare, to the point of being inconsequential to election outcomes. Hilton by his own admission understands voting patterns, and that in this cycle, Republicans have voted early and often by mail, despite Trump’s claims that all vote-by-mail should be suspect. So Hilton understands that early votes have skewed his way, and that later vote tallies will likely favor Democrats.
And Hilton is definitely intelligent enough to expect that in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly three to one, he will not keep the top spot in this primary, and a slim chance remains that he will not make it into the top two. That’s just simple math.
So if Hilton truly seeks to represent this state as its top elected executive, now is the time to renounce election fraud myths and stand up to Trump’s lies. If Hilton can’t say that he believes our recent election was free and fair, then he has no business being our governor.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the path he’s taking, even as it seems increasingly likely that he will advance to the general election.
This week, speaking with far-right podcaster and former Turning Point USA creative director Benny Johnson (who was allegedly duped into working for a Russian influence operation), Hilton said that while “so far we’re not seeing any signs” of cheating, “we’re going to be all over it. We’re not going to let them do that.”
Hilton was responding to a question from Johnson on whether Hilton will sue over “cheating.”
On a post-election appearance with Laura Ingraham, the conservative Fox News host who has repeatedly promoted the Great Replacement Theory, Hilton delved into more conspiracy.
“Just to really underline the point that you made about the corruption,” he told Ingraham an anecdote about supposed fraud in a previous election cycle when a “whistleblower” at the post office told him that they were instructed that a handwritten postmark was acceptable when sorting ballots to deliver to the county registrar.
“It’s just unbelievable, and of course, that’s why so many people don’t believe the results, but it just undermines confidence,” he told Ingraham, certainly knowing that the post office forwarding a ballot on to a county registrar in no way means it will be certified or counted. Would we really want the USPS deciding which ballots to deliver? Disingenuous on Hilton’s part at best.
“The whole thing is a joke,” Hilton went on to say of California elections, which of course, is absurd.
Thursday, when I asked Hilton’s team to speak with him about his views on voter fraud, they sent back a response that focused on the slowness of the California vote count; voter rolls Hilton has described as “wildly inaccurate,” which is a wildly inaccurate claim; and two instances of actual fraud with voter registration — not examples of votes that were counted.
To be sure, all those items are important. Any malfeasance should be punished, and the system should always strive to improve.
But how hard is it to simply be against fraud, while accurately acknowledging that it is rare and our current system provides accurate results?
I am against voter registration fraud. I am against vote fraud. I am absolutely pro-democracy, including policies such as mail-in voting that increase participation.
I do not believe that there is widespread fraud in the California primary, or in American elections in general, because the evidence does not support that conspiracy. I do not believe that Democrats are running a decades-long, nationwide conspiracy to replace white voters with votes from Black and brown undocumented immigrants, because that is both false and racist.
Pretty basic stuff, and statements in line with the values and common sense of the majority of Californians Hilton says he will represent.
If Hilton can’t come out and clearly say that Trump is wrong — about fraud and about the Great Replacement Theory — can he really be trusted to represent the values of the Golden State?
Politics
Video: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
new video loaded: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
transcript
transcript
Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
Elias Irizarry, who pleaded guilty to climbing through a broken window at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, now works for an office responsible for uncovering and defending against terrorism plots at the Pentagon.
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“Full pardon or commutation?” “Full pardon.”
By Alisa Shodiyev Kaff
June 4, 2026
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