Politics
Trump and Biden both say they’re tough on China. But whom would Beijing prefer to deal with?
No matter who wins the U.S. election in November, for China it’s lose-lose.
With mistrust between the two nations deepening, both President Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump have sought to cast themselves as hard-line negotiators who will stand tough against China’s rise.
And with both candidates vying to prove their mettle on dealing with China, experts are divided on which would ultimately harm Beijing’s interests more.
There’s no best-case scenario. There’s only the bad scenario and worse scenario
— Yun Sun, China expert
“There’s no best-case scenario. There’s only the bad scenario and worse scenario,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Biden has proved himself to be the more predictable president, which appeals to China’s penchant for stability. But steadier leadership in Washington could bolster its partnerships in the Asia-Pacific, at a time when Beijing feels increasingly penned in by U.S. allies such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines.
President Biden meets virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2021.
(Susan Walsh / Associated Press)
As the more capricious politician, Trump might undermine such alliances, providing a vacuum for Beijing to step in and strengthen ties with U.S.-friendly nations. However, his impulsive tendencies could trigger a rapid deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States.
“With the Biden administration, the Chinese side is concerned with the long-term power play,” said Minghao Zhao, deputy director for the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “If we have a Trump presidency, we have to be worried about more turbulence.”
The Biden administration has made some efforts to improve frayed ties with China. In November, Biden and President Xi Jinping met in Silicon Valley and agreed to restart military-to-military communications, which China suspended in retaliation for then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. Analysts said the pact was critical in preventing flare-ups from becoming broader conflicts.
“For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option,” Xi said.
Still, sticking points remain.
When Biden was asked if he trusted Xi, he invoked an old Russian adage popularized by President Reagan during the Cold War: “Trust but verify.”
The current administration’s focus on Chinese “overcapacity” in metals and electric cars signals more sparring over technology and trade and China’s impact on U.S. industries.
Last week, Biden called for the tripling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China to combat what he described as “unfair trade practices,” and a flood of cheap, low-quality products that have distorted the U.S. market.
The latest initiative builds upon the trade war that Trump launched in 2018, implementing 25% duties on billions of dollars of imports from China, such as cars, metals and machinery. In February, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% or more if he became president again.
U.S. officials also have become more wary of Chinese software and the security risks it poses for U.S. users. On Wednesday, Biden signed into law a measure that would either ban or force a sale of the Chinese-owned short video app TikTok.
That same bill included about $8 billion in security assistance for Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory. The sovereignty of the self-ruled island is a particularly contentious impasse in U.S.-China relations, as Washington has strengthened ties with Taiwanese officials and China has increased military aggression.
China said it opposed the aid allocated for Taiwan and has accused the U.S. of enabling the island democracy to pursue formal independence. Biden has said publicly that the U.S. would send military assistance to Taiwan if China attacked, but the administration has clarified that U.S. policy has not changed — that the United States acknowledges Beijing’s claim to the island but does not endorse it.
The U.S. has warned China against providing aid to Russia in its war with Ukraine, and has considered sanctioning Chinese banks to deter support, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is expected to discuss Ukraine among other disputes during a visit to China this week, and issued a warning ahead of his arrival.
“If China purports on the one hand to want good relations with Europe and other countries, it can’t on the other hand be fueling what is the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War,” Blinken said Friday.
China said the U.S. was making “groundless accusations.” It also objected in a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization to recent U.S. legislation offering subsidies to incentivize domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles.
During the last election, some analysts had predicted that Biden would be softer on China compared with Trump. This time, it’s clear that neither candidate is likely to reverse a decade-long hardening against China, said Ho-fung Hung, a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University.
That shift began with President Obama’s efforts to establish stronger economic and diplomatic ties in Asia, spurred by growing unease with Beijing’s military assertiveness, as well as complaints that Chinese competitors were unfairly squeezing out U.S. companies, Hung said.
Now, “the only difference between different presidents would be the details and approaches of how they implement the toughening policy,” he said.
Then-President Trump speaks as China’s President Xi Jinping, far left, listens during a bilateral meeting at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires in 2018.
(Pablo Martinez Monsivais / Associated Press)
Both candidates have a history of angering China with public remarks. After their November meeting, Biden again referred to Xi as a dictator. And while Trump has been quicker to praise Xi, he maligned China during the outbreak of COVID-19, which he insistently referred to as the “Chinese virus.”
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said that stronger anti-China rhetoric among Republicans may inevitably beget harsher China policies under Trump.
“They’re being so tough on China, it might be difficult for them to climb down,” he said.
But Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said that since Trump doesn’t adhere to political conventions, Beijing may see more opportunity to negotiate with the former real estate mogul.
“Since Biden is tough anyway, it may be worth the risk to roll the dice and see what Trump might bring,” Chong said.
Some reports on Chinese disinformation campaigns also indicate a potential preference for a Trump presidency.
An April report from the London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a research organization, identified a network of Chinese government-linked social media accounts impersonating Trump supporters and propagating criticisms of Biden.
However, academics said attempts to spread information by Chinese actors are probably more geared toward sowing doubt in democracy and America rather than directly targeting Trump or Biden.
“I think they are more interested in showing that democratic elections are not an effective system,” Sun from the Stimson Center said. “In that sense, undermining credibility is more important for China than undermining a specific candidate.”
Commentators from Chinese state and social media have criticized both candidates as indicative of the flaws of democracy and America’s decline. An April commentary from China’s official state news agency said money, rather than voters, would ultimately decide the next U.S. president.
Sima Nan, a Chinese television pundit, said in a video on Chinese social media last year that a race between Biden and Trump would be a difficult choice — like picking between spoiled Coke or spoiled Pepsi.
Special correspondent Xin-yun Wu in Taipei contributed to this report.
Politics
C.I.A. Director Visits Cuba as Tensions Rise and Island Runs Out of Oil
The C.I.A. said Mr. Ratcliffe had met with Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito” or “El Cangrejo” (the Crab), the influential grandson of former president Raúl Castro. Mr. Ratcliffe also met with Lázaro Álvarez Casas, the minister of the interior, as well as the head of Cuba’s intelligence services, a C.I.A. official said.
At the same time, federal prosecutors in Miami were working toward securing an indictment of the elder Mr. Castro, who remains a force in the country’s politics, according to several people familiar with the matter. The scope of the indictment and the number of defendants is being debated, but it could include drug trafficking charges and accusations connected to Cuba’s downing in 1996 of planes run by the humanitarian aid group Brothers to the Rescue, two of the people said.
Mr. Ratcliffe arrived in Cuba the day after Vicente de la O Levy, the minister of energy and mines, announced that oil supplies for domestic use and power plants had been exhausted.
“We have absolutely no fuel oil, absolutely no diesel,” he said. “In Havana, the blackouts today exceed 20 or 22 hours.”
The lack of oil has forced people to rely on charcoal or even wood to cook, and some people have taken to the streets, banging on pots and pans to express their frustration.
The Cuban government has been grappling with a severe energy crisis for more than two years because of crumbling infrastructure and a dwindling oil supply from Venezuela, its longtime benefactor.
Venezuelan fuel stopped flowing to Cuba entirely in January, after the United States seized Venezuela’s leader and took control of its oil industry. Later, the Trump administration imposed an effective blockade barring all foreign oil from reaching Cuba, which had also received shipments from Mexico.
A delivery of an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil from Russia last month permitted by the Trump administration provided a brief reprieve.
The administration also has been working on the Castro indictment for months. The effort is being led by Jason A. Reding Quiñones, a Trump ally who serves as the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida.
The Cuban government said the United States had requested Thursday’s meeting. Cuban officials stressed that their country did not constitute a threat to U.S. national security and should not be included on a list of state sponsors of terrorism, Cuba’s state-controlled newspaper, Granma, reported.
“Once again it was made clear that the island does not harbor, support, finance or permit terrorist or extremist organizations; nor are there any foreign military or intelligence bases on its territory, and it has never supported any hostile activity against the U.S. nor will it allow any action to be taken from Cuba against another nation,” the Cuban government said.
Politics
Trump touts ‘fantastic trade deals’ in final Xi meeting amid tariff standoff
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President Donald Trump held his final meeting with Chinese President Xi touting a big win on one of the central focuses orf the high-stakes summit after the two leaders held a bilateral tea at the Zhongnanhai compound.
“This has been an incredible visit,” Trump said to reporters. “I think a lot of good has come of it, and we’ve made some fantastic trade deals. Great for both countries.”
The announcement comes against the backdrop of a yearslong tariff standoff between the U.S. and China, with Trump arguing aggressive duties are needed to force fairer trade terms while Beijing has repeatedly pushed back. While it is unclear which deals were reached, it was shared that China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets.
TRUMP MEETS US AMBASSADOR TO CHINA AS TENSIONS FLARE AHEAD OF XI SHOWDOWN
Trump said summit produced “fantastic trade deals.” (Evan Vucci/Pool Reuters via AP)
U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, War Secretary Pete Hegseth, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were present for the meeting.
America’s top business leaders traveled with Trump to Beijing and met with Premier Li Qiang Thursday to discuss U.S.-China economic and trade cooperation.
“China is willing to work with the United States to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, strive for more positive outcomes, achieve mutual success and promote common prosperity, and better benefit the people of both countries and the world,” reads a press release about the meeting from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
TRUMP AND CHINA CLOSE IN ON TRADE DEAL AFTER PRODUCTIVE TALKS, BESSENT SAYS
While it is unclear which deals were reached, it was shared that China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP)
The ministry stressed that both countries should “meet each other halfway” and “safeguard bilateral economic and trade relations.”
The White House and Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment on the matter.
During an interview Thursday with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Trump said China was interested in investing “hundreds of billions of dollars” alongside the American business leaders visiting Beijing.
“Those business people are here to make deals and to bring back jobs,” Trump said.
TRUMP PUSHES XI ON TRADE AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING DENTS KEY CHINA PRESSURE TOOL
A major piece of Trump’s “America First” agenda has focused on leveling the global trade playing field by holding other countries accountable for trade deficits. One of his first moves after returning to office was rolling out the “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, which were designed to serve as leverage in trade negotiations while also generating new revenue.
“This has been an incredible visit. I think a lot of good has come of it, and we’ve made some fantastic trade deals. Great for both countries, ” said Trump. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)
Tariffs have been at the center of Trump’s China strategy since his first term, when he imposed duties on Chinese imports and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of its own. The fight has remained one of the defining pressure points in the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump’s first visit in 2017 produced more than $250 billion in announced commercial deals and cooperation pledges, but it did not prevent trade relations from deteriorating in 2018.
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Most notably, Trump announced a $12 billion deal for cellphone chips from Qualcomm and $37 billion for Boeing commercial jets, AP reported at the time.
Trump said that Xi and his wife will visit the U.S. in September.
Politics
Commentary: Who won and who lost in Thursday night’s California gubernatorial debate? Our columnists weigh in
For the sixth and final time before votes are counted, the leading contenders for California governor gathered Thursday night for a televised debate, this one a 90-minute session in San Francisco.
Times columnists Gustavo Arellano, Mark Z. Barabak and Anita Chabria absorbed the rhetorical blows, followed the heated back-and-forths and took in each and every one of the candidates’ myriad policy prescriptions. Here’s their assessment:
Arellano: Near the end of the debate, co-moderator and San Francisco Examiner editor-in-chief Schuyler Hudak Prionas groaned as candidates talked over each other while trying to answer a question that was supposed to elicit a yes or no response.
That’s pretty much how California voters have reacted to this primary.
In an era where politics are far too often about choosing the least worst option, voters in this election are left with the political version of the Angels baseball team.
No candidate has polled higher than 20-some percent — a testament to how many are in the running, but also an indication that none of them has truly captured the zeitgeist of today’s California.
This year’s debates have done little to catapult anyone to the top, and tonight was more of the same. I still don’t know who I’m going to vote for, and no one inspired me to side with them. No one offered a clear vision of how they would pull Californians out of a spiritual malaise that has so many of us leaving the state, or thinking about leaving.
Instead, what I heard too many of the candidates evoke was the glories of the past — their past.
Antonio Villaraigosa’s closing remarks made a mantra out of “Dream with me,” a slogan he used back when he was L.A. mayor — that was 13 years ago.
Xavier Becerra bragged about how he stood up to President Trump as California attorney general — that was five years ago.
Katie Porter pulled out a white notebook with something written on it and directly challenged Becerra to answer a question — a callback to her time as a congressmember grilling people on Capitol Hill with a whiteboard and a marker, which she first made famous seven years ago.
The two Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, spoke of a halcyon California destroyed by feckless Democrats and vowed a return to those days.
The only candidates who didn’t live in the past were San José Mayor Matt Mahan and hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer — but they seemed particularly out of their league, with Steyer too often looking down at notes instead of speaking off the cuff with his well-rehearsed populist pluck.
The word “nostalgia” first emerged to describe what doctors back then considered a malady, thinking it unwise to long for the past. It’s a concept historically antithetical to California, long boosted as the land of today and tomorrow by everyone from the Mission fathers to orange barons, developers to politicians. Indeed, nostalgia has sometimes been a dangerous factor in California politics, unleashing the Spanish fantasy heritage movement, Prop. 13, Prop. 187 and all sorts of other nonsense.
The two candidates who advance to the general election would be wise to offer Californians a hope for the future that doesn’t call back to our yesterdays. For now, the only real winners are the political consultants, and the only real losers are Californians, because we still don’t know for sure that any of the candidates can make things better.
All we can expect is that they’ll turn things for the worse.
Barabak: A popular expression — which Steyer mentioned — defines insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
By that measure, was the audience for Thursday night’s throwdown insane? Masochistic? Or a group of high-minded, dutiful, quite-conscientious California voters?
The leading gubernatorial candidates have been at this so long that they’re like actors in a stage troupe, delivering well-rehearsed lines, or an old band getting together to play their greatest hits, though far less melodious.
Among those reprising familiar roles were Steyer as the boastful billionaire; Bianco as the angry white avenger; Hilton as the chipper doomsayer; Mahan as the kid brother insinuating his way into the conversation; Porter as the left-wing tribune promising a progressive Valhalla; and Villaraigosa as the old political war horse.
Once more, Becerra was the focal point of attacks, befitting his newfound status as the candidate to beat. “This is what happens when you take the lead in polls,” he rightly noted.
And so rivals again assailed Becerra’s performance as state attorney general and Health and Human Services secretary in the Biden administration. They accused of him being a shill for Big Oil. They tried, implying guilt-through-association, to rope Becerra into the scandal involving his former aides who embezzled from a dormant campaign account.
(Becerra, crisper and more lively than he’s previously been, noted that prosecutors in the case have described him as a victim and not a perpetrator or co-conspirator.)
It’s hard to see all the jostling and thrown elbows making a huge difference. The promises made and attacks scattered like buckshot on the San Francisco soundstage all seem much less important than the numbers that show up in opinion polls between now and Election Day.
Many Democrats, spooked by the prospect of their party being frozen out in June’s top-two primary, have been clinging to their ballots, intending to vote at the last moment for whichever Democrat appears likeliest to finish first.
In that way, the race seems to be shaping up as less a competition than a self-fulfilling prophecy. And Thursday night’s performance, while not wholly irrelevant, was just another television rerun broadcast to a less-than-mass audience.
Chabria: Here’s what I’ll say about Thursday night: It was a debate. The old-school kind where everybody is mostly well-behaved and polite, and the audience scrolls on their phones to stay awake.
The candidates themselves seemed low-energy, even with their jabs — which were largely directed at Becerra, as Mark said.
But no sparks also means we have more clarity. Barring an Eric Swalwell-style blow-up, the top three — Becerra, Steyer and Hilton — are really the only true contenders.
But I’ll give a shout-out to Porter, who had her best performance to date with answers that were clear and laid out policy with detail. Still, I fear it’s too little, too late.
Becerra, on the other hand, seemed subdued to the point of flat (sorry, Mark, he came off crisp like a week-old apple to me) often relying on the line that he sued Trump more than a hundred times as attorney general of California during Trump’s first term. I’m not sure that’s inspiring, though it did lead to some court victories.
Granted, Becerra has had a hard week, with a gaffe with a reporter that went viral and a plea deal by a former aide in that case of money misappropriated from his dormant campaign account. It’s not clear yet if voters care about either of those glitches — but if they stick in people’s minds, that could open a path for Steyer to scrape up the small margin he needs to get through the primary.
But Thursday night also did little to help Steyer’s cause — or hurt it. He made some clear, forceful points that positioned him as the changemaker progressive, especially around his policies on moving away from fossil fuels. He also had some convoluted answers that didn’t land. He didn’t give undecided voters much to work with.
I’ll end with one answer from Hilton that women should pay attention to: He said that if elected, he would allow California abortion providers to be extradited to states such as Louisiana to face criminal charges for mailing abortion medications.
Women across the U.S. now must rely on states such as California for any access to abortion care. Hilton’s position is not just bad for California but presents a risk to women everywhere.
For me, that answer should disqualify him for the highest office in our pro-choice state.
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