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Introducing ‘The Tilt,’ a Newsletter About Elections and Polling

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Introducing ‘The Tilt,’ a Newsletter About Elections and Polling

Forward of the 2020 election, I wrote a every day article on the newest polls — internally, we referred to as it my “polling diary.” To my shock, tens of 1000’s of individuals signed as much as be notified each time we revealed a brand new diary entry. You may be one in every of them!

This cycle, we’re taking electronic mail all the best way. We’re launching The Tilt, a e-newsletter on elections and polling within the run-up to the November midterm elections — and past.

You possibly can join it right here.

The subject material will likely be no shock to longtime followers: evaluation of the newest surveys and electoral developments. This 12 months’s combat for management of Congress will likely be our main focus, however longer-term electoral developments, partisan polarization, threats to American democracy, voting legal guidelines and — gulp — the 2024 presidential marketing campaign may even be on our radar.

We’ll additionally go to wonkier topics, like polling methodology. Sure, it’s arcane, however after the final decade of high-profile polling misfires, it’s price a deeper exploration of what pollsters are doing proper or flawed. We hope to put in writing accessibly sufficient to lure the uninitiated. If not, we’ll flag it as “wonky” — as Paul Krugman’s e-newsletter typically does — and you may skip it each time your eyes begin to glaze over.

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We’ll additionally attempt to have some enjoyable.

There are numerous newsletters these days, however I believe electoral evaluation is very effectively suited to this format. We are able to cowl a flashy new ballot quantity that is probably not price a full article, however does should be put into context. And we will be extra casual in providing provisional and unsure takes.

This article may even be a pure residence for work that doesn’t at all times have a spot on the Instances residence display screen, like bulletins about our coming polls (we’re within the area now, by the best way); musings in regards to the huge choices that underlie our work; debates on the place to conduct our subsequent survey; or the findings of our post-mortem into our 2020 polling. Over time, lots of you have got expressed curiosity within the inside workings of our operation. Hopefully, we will pull again the curtain.

On a private observe, I’m additionally hoping it’s a method to maintain a dialog with individuals who care deeply about elections — with out the vitriol typically discovered on Twitter. We’ll strive to determine a method to have interaction with severe criticism, different views and your questions. If you have already got a subject you’d like us to handle, be happy to electronic mail us at pricey.upshot@nytimes.com.

And please join! With Democrats exhibiting uncommon power for the president’s get together at first of a midterm marketing campaign, it’s certain to be a wild few months.

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Politics

2 West Virginia county commissioners removed after arrests for skipping public meetings

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2 West Virginia county commissioners removed after arrests for skipping public meetings

A three-judge panel ordered Wednesday that two county commissioners in West Virginia’s Eastern Panhandle be removed from office over a month after they were arrested for purposefully jilting their duties by skipping public meetings.

Circuit Court Judges Joseph K. Reeder of Putnam County, Jason A. Wharton of Wirt and Wood Counties and Perri Jo DeChristopher of Monongalia County wrote in a written decision that Jefferson County Commissioners Jennifer Krouse and Tricia Jackson “engaged in a pattern of conducted that amounted to the deliberate, willful and intentional refusal to perform their duties.”

Krouse and Jackson — who is also a Republican candidate for state auditor — were arrested in March and arraigned in Jefferson County Magistrate Court on 42 misdemeanor charges ranging from failure to perform official duties to conspiracy to commit a crime against the state. The petition to remove the two women from office was filed in November by the Jefferson County prosecutor’s office, and the three-judge panel heard the case in late March.

LONGTIME OHIO GOP CAMPAIGN TREASURER CHARGED WITH DEFRAUDING CLIENTS OF NEARLY $1 MILLION

Neither Krouse or Jackson responded to emails from The Associated Press requesting comment.

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In a public Facebook post, Jackson said she is working with an attorney to appeal the decision and that she is still running for state auditor.

Two West Virginia county commissioners have been removed from office following their arrests for deliberately skipping public meetings.

“An election has been overturned and the will of the people has been subverted,” Jackson wrote. “I have no intention of surrendering and plan to challenge this unjust decision every step of the way.”

The matter stems from seven missed meetings in late 2023, which State Police asserted in court documents related to the criminal case that Krouse and Jackson skipped to protest candidates selected to replace a commissioner who resigned. They felt the candidates were not “actual conservatives,” among other grievances, according to a criminal complaint.

The complaint asserted that between Sept. 21 and Nov. 16, 2023, Krouse and Jackson’s absences prevented the commission from conducting regular business, leaving it unable to fill 911 dispatch positions, approve a $150,000 grant for victim advocates in the prosecuting attorney’s office and a $50,000 grant for court house renovations.

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The county lost out on the court house improvement grant because the commission needs to approve expenses over $5,000.

Both Jackson and Krouse continued to receive benefits and paychecks despite the missed meetings. They began returning after a Jefferson County Circuit Court order.

Krouse took office in January 2023, and Jackson in 2021.

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Drew Barrymore urged VP Kamala Harris to be 'Mamala of the country.' The internet recoiled

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Drew Barrymore urged VP Kamala Harris to be 'Mamala of the country.' The internet recoiled

Drew Barrymore pleaded with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this week for the politician to be a mother figure to the United States. That sentiment has since unleashed waves of backlash from multiple communities on social media.

In the Monday episode of “The Drew Barrymore Show,” the former child star welcomed the vice president to her single-couch set where — in front of an all-female audience — they shared their experiences of being part of a blended family. Harris, married to Douglas Emhoff, is the stepmother to Ella Emhoff and Cole Emhoff. However, she isn’t a fan of the “step-” title, she told Barrymore.

“We kinda don’t use the term ‘step,’” she explained, noting Disney’s often negative depictions of step-parents. “Their word for me is ‘Mamala.’ So they call me ‘Mamala.”

After Harris recalled growing her connection with her husband’s children from a previous union, Barrymore abruptly shifted the conversation. “I keep thinking in my head that we all need a mom,” she told her guest. “I’ve been thinking that we really all need a tremendous hug in the world right now.”

“But in our country, we need you to be ‘Mamala’ of the country,” Barrymore added, locking eyes with the vice president, who nodded her head.

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Clips of Barrymore’s praise, and Harris’ subdued response, spread on social media, sparking memes and passionate reactions. By Tuesday, X (formerly Twitter) users saw Barrymore’s exchange as “cringe” material.

A representative for the “Drew Barrymore Show” did not immediately respond to The Times’ request for comment.

“That moment a crazy lady asks you to be momala of the country,” one X user captioned a photo of Harris pursing her lips during the viral moment.

“Noooo she did NOT ask her to be the nations momala that’s insane,” tweeted another user.

For other social media critics, Barrymore, who is white, pleading to Harris, who has Black and South Asian roots, was more than just cringe-inducing. Several users accused the “E.T.” and “Never Been Kissed” star of evoking the racist mammy stereotype: a Black woman, usually enslaved, tasked with taking care of white Americans and their children.

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“‘Momala’ is INSANE. Not it’s up to a black woman to rock us in her bosom and heal our wounds,” wrote an X user.

Lawyer Ann Olivarius said Barrymore’s query also perpetuates the double standard that “being ‘caring’ is an add-on job requirement for women,” regardless of career and position.

Barrymore’s “Mamala” comment also elicited strong social media reactions from across the political spectrum. Conservative media personality Tomi Lahren slammed the Democrat VP tweeting, “Kamala will never be our ‘momala.’ Cringe. “ A supporter of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ripped Harris’ “faux ‘leadership’” and challenged her experience with motherhood.

“This is the most pandering, fake, set-up to try to get the country to like Kamala Harris by the Biden Admin,” wrote another X user.

Another X user panned Barrymore’s “Mamala” remark, alleging that Harris and the United States administration are “complicit” in Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas, which has sparked pro-Palestine demonstrations on college campuses worldwide.

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During Monday’s episode, Barrymore ended her controversial segment by taking Harris’ hands in hers as the host spoke about women supporting each other. “We need a great protector,” she told Harris.

The vice president responded with a few lines about the “true measure” of strength and power.

“If you ever want some indication, some objective indication of your individual power, see what you can do to help other people,” she said.

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Adams, NYPD cite 'global' effort to 'radicalize young people' after 300 arrested at Columbia, CUNY

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Adams, NYPD cite 'global' effort to 'radicalize young people' after 300 arrested at Columbia, CUNY

New York City Mayor Eric Adams and New York Police Department (NYPD) leadership cited a “global” movement to “radicalize young people” in announcing approximately 300 arrests at Columbia University and City College that took place overnight. 

“I know that there are those who are attempting to say, well, the majority of people may have been students. You don’t have to be the majority to influence and co-opt an operation. That is what this is about. And so, if we want to play the word police, you could do so. I’m going to play the New York City police,” Adams said at a press conference. “There is a movement to radicalize young people, and I’m not going to wait until it’s done and all of a sudden acknowledge the existence of it. This is a global problem that young people are being influenced by those who are professionals at radicalizing our children. And I’m not going to allow that to happen as the mayor of the city of New York.” 

Adams made clear that making arrests at schools and removing those who did not belong on campus is far from the end of the problem.

“We know that this is only a comma in the full sentence of public protection in this city. This is not a celebratory, a moment,” Adams said. “We can’t create environments while children could be in danger, and we must push back on all attempts to radicalize our young people in this city like we’re seeing across the entire globe.” 

TWO COLUMBIA STUDENTS WHO FACED OFF WITH MOB SPEAK OUT, CLAIM A CAR FULL OF ‘MASKED PEOPLE’ SURVEILLED THEM

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NYPD Commissioner Edward Caban, right, and Mayor Eric Adams appear at a press conference as Caban holds up chains and a lock removed by officers during their operation to clear protestors from Columbia University on May 1, 2024. (REUTERS/Mike Segar)

The day after Columbia University President Minouche Shafik was hauled before the House Education and the Workforce Committee in Washington, D.C., about growing antisemitism at the Ivy League school, Columbia leadership allowed police onto their private campus on April 18 to arrest over 100 people. However, as protesters reorganized and an anti-Israel encampment – involving even some professors who Shafik testified before Congress had been fired or reprimanded over antisemitic remarks praising Hamas’ Oct. 7 slaughter of about 1,200 Jews – persisted for about two weeks, the university president opted to keep police out. 

Shafik instead had administrators attempting negotiations with protest organizers demanding the university “divest” from Israel. That was until demonstrators took over Hamilton Hall. 

Approximately 300 people were arrested at Columbia and nearby City College overnight. Preliminary charges range from trespass to criminal mischief to burglary, police said. 

In an apparent reference to Columbia University locking its gates to keep police out on the sidewalk, NYPD Commissioner Edward Caban held up chains at Wednesday’s press conference. 

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Anti-Israel agitators block bystanders’ views as protesters are placed into the back of a police vehicle

Anti-Israel agitators block bystanders’ views as protesters are placed in the back of a police vehicle in New York City on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. Roughly 300 protesters were arrested at Columbia University and City College overnight. (John M. Mantel for Fox News Digital)

“They tried to lock us out. But the NYPD and the people of the city of New York will never be locked out. And we will always work together to keep our city safe,” he said, slamming down the chains afterward. 

Over the past week, Columbia leadership acknowledged in discussions with NYPD officials that “outside agitators were on their grounds training and really co-opting this movement,” Adams said, and, “at the request of Columbia University,” police conducted an operation to “to remove those who have turned the peaceful protest into a place where antisemitism and anti-Israel attitudes were pervasive.” 

The mayor told reporters that those who broke into Hamilton Hall were “led by individuals who are not affiliated with the university,” and Columbia needed the assistance of the NYPD to clear the building and the encampment outside through a “dual operation.” 

Police response to Hamilton Hall

NYPD officers detain dozens of anti-Israel protesters at Columbia University after they barricaded themselves at the Hamilton Hall building near Gaza Solidarity Encampment earlier on April 30, 2024. (Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Recognizing “similar indicators” from the Black Lives Matter demonstrations of 2020, the mayor said campus protests involved “external actors with a history of escalating situations and trying to create chaos.” 

“Students have a right to protest, and free speech is the cornerstone of our society,” Adams said. “But as our major concern, we knew, and we saw that there were those who were never concerned about free speech. They were concerned about chaos. It was about external actors hijacking a peaceful protest and influence students to escalate. There’s nothing peaceful about barricading, building, destroying property or dismantling security cameras.” 

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Since the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, the NYPD has responded to more than 2,400 protests, about 1,000 of which focused on the situation with Israel and Palestinians, Caban added. 

ANTI-ISRAEL MOB AT COLUMBIA REVEALS EXACTLY WHAT THEY WILL TARGET NEXT AFTER TAKING OVER ACADEMIC BUILDING

Columbia encampment dismantled

Police dismantled an anti-Israel encampment at Columbia University after protesters barricaded themselves at Hamilton Hall on April 30, 2024. (Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

NYPD Assistant Commissioner Rebecca Weiner cited how a number of individuals who law enforcement know from over the years as being associated with protests in New York City and elsewhere in other cities have been “doing training around the change in tactics.” Pointing to the campus organization effort, she referenced how demonstrators wore “Black bloc attire,” broke windows, engaged in vandalism and property destruction, barricaded themselves and how “makeshift weapons” were recovered from the encampment. Tactics used by anti-Israel agitators also included “fomenting chaos” and “squatting.” 

“That change in tactics combined with the presence of known individuals on campus in the lead up to what happened in Hamilton Hall is why we had a real elevated concern around public safety,” she said, turning to why officers needed protective gear. “When you’re going into a situation that you don’t fully understand what might greet you on the other side of the door. So this is important, and it is not just a New York City issue. It’s obviously not just a Columbia issue. We saw it spread to CCNY last night, but this is unfolding across the country and in Europe as well. So this is a challenge we’re all going to be dealing with for some time.” 

Adams said the NYPD “cannot get caught up on what’s the political correct terminology” and instead must focus on public safety and removing “individuals on campus who should not have been there.”

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Officers outside Hamilton Hall

The NYPD at the Hamilton Hall building at Columbia University on April 30, 2024. (Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“We saw evidence of training. We saw a shift in tactics that were being used,” Adams said. “And when you start using the intelligence that intel was able to supply, we knew it was time to communicate directly with the school and say, you have more than a peaceful protest on your hands.” 

NYPD officials praised the officers’ professionalism, saying that an “overwhelming majority” of those approximately 300 arrests happened without any injuries or serious scuffles with police. 

Adams also blasted how protesters took down the American flag and erected a Palestinian flag at campuses. 

“That’s our flag folks. Don’t take over our buildings and put another flag up,” the mayor said. “That may be fine to other people, but it’s not to me. My uncle died defending this country and these men and women put their lives on the line and it’s despicable that schools will allow another country’s flag to fly in our country. So blame me for being proud to be an American. And I thank, Commissioner [Kaz] Daughtry, for putting that flag back up. We’re not surrendering our way of life to anyone.” 

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