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Haunted by legacy of police misconduct, Oakland grapples for answers to street crime surge

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Haunted by legacy of police misconduct, Oakland grapples for answers to street crime surge

Along gracious, leafy College Avenue, you can luxuriate with a traditional Thai massage, slip into an artisanal cocktail at an Italian spot or claim a grain-free treat for your canine companion at a charming Mediterranean cafe.

Privileged Rockridge hardly seems the sort of neighborhood that would generate grist for the crime blotter. But that changed last year, when one of Oakland’s more upscale enclaves suffered a string of retail break-ins and armed robberies and, most spectacularly, a series of full-frontal assaults on a neighborhood liquor store.

David Shrestha has shored up defenses outside his Oakland liquor store after a series of burglaries in which thieves rammed through its glass front doors.

(Paul Kuroda/For The Times)

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Eddie’s Drive In Liquors, sadly, came to embody its name when thieves plowed a truck through its glass front doors — on four separate occasions in just four months — plundering tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of cigarettes, cognac and other high-end liquor.

In the decade leading up to the pandemic, Oakland was making national headlines because so much was going right: Rockridge and other North Oakland neighborhoods had a high-energy nightlife that offered a chic, soulful alternative to San Francisco. Downtown bustled with people and commerce, and housing was affordable by Bay Area standards.

The city’s distressed east and west ends remained more dangerous terrain, particularly at night, but violent crime rates were nowhere near the highs of the 1980s and ’90s.

That all changed last year, when Oakland found itself in a far harsher spotlight. Crime surged across multiple categories in 2023, including armed assaults and brazen property crimes like the Eddie’s smash-throughs.

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In-N-Out Burger and Denny’s were among the high-profile chains to announce they were closing outlets in the city, citing the risks to employees and customers. Kaiser Permanente, a major employer, sent a memo to its downtown workers urging them to stay inside for lunch due to rising daytime street robberies.

In-N-Out plans to close down a location for the first time this month, citing concerns for the safety of customers and employees at its lone Oakland site.

(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)

The first two months of 2024 have brought some relief. Crime rates have fallen in several categories, including homicide, aggravated assault, burglary and auto theft. But robberies continue to climb upward, and there is a shared sense in large swaths of Oakland that something has changed. The crimes feel more routine and more brazen. And the crime scenes have shifted into wealthier areas.

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Oaklanders and their city leaders agree on the need for a better path forward. But because no one can say definitively what went wrong in 2023, there is heartfelt disagreement over how to fix the problem.

City leaders, haunted by a legacy of police scandals, are hesitant to embrace heightened enforcement as the primary remedy. But addressing what they see as the roots of the problem — pandemic job losses and the stubbornly high rates of poverty and homelessness in some neighborhoods — takes time and sustained attention.

“Everything moves so fast here in Oakland. I feel we need to slow things down and take the time to really repair things,” said Viviana Montano, who works with young people at the social services nonprofit Homies Empowerment. “It will take the whole barrio to uplift our community, to unite as one, to fix our community, to save our city.”

Oakland Police Officer J. Yuen patrols an In-N-Out Burger location in Oakland set to close because of crime concerns.

(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)

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The harshest critics describe Oakland as a “ghost town” of failing businesses and rampant crime. Recall campaigns have been launched against Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County Dist. Atty. Pamela Price, both in their first terms in office. John Bigs, who initiated an online petition opposing Thao, blamed the recent crime wave on a lack of funding for police and a delay in filling the empty office of police chief. The introduction to his petition describes a “sense of fear and insecurity that now permeates our neighborhoods.”

Others in the city say it’s too soon to throw out relatively new leaders. They appeal for more time to show how expanding access to housing, jobs and social programs can enhance public safety.

David Muhammad, executive director of the Oakland-based National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform, rejects the bleakest depictions of the city where he grew up. He sees many neighborhoods still bustling. Yet his car has been broken into three times in two years, and he acknowledges he is “much more vigilant than [he] ever was before.”

Muhammad meets monthly for a dinner with community leaders from a range of professions, whose first instinct is not to blame crime on the reforms that aimed to reduce incarceration rates for certain offenses — such as Proposition 47, the 2014 measure that changed certain lower-level drug and property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors and invested in drug and mental health treatment.

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“Still, the group is wondering, ‘What is going on?’“ he said. “Certainly, there is something that needs to improve. We love Oakland and want to see it thrive.”

Many activists trace the crime wave to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Along with job losses, the enduring shift to remote work has emptied out downtown streets. The prolonged closure of schools created another problem, pushing teenagers out of classrooms and into the community, often without positive alternatives.

Crucially, the pandemic also saw a key anti-violence program, Ceasefire, begin to unwind after it was credited by city officials for a 43% reduction in homicides from 2012 to 2017.

The program operates on the principle that a relatively small number of people, between 250 and 400, are most likely to be the perpetrators — and the victims — of violence. Ceasefire pairs people in this target population with life coaches, and also offers them therapy, drug rehabilitation, job training and other services.

Oakland’s homicides dropped to 75 in 2018 — its second-lowest total in more than half a century. One of the nonprofits that helped run Ceasefire estimated that 140 lives were saved over five years.

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But in-person visits with the program’s participants stopped during the pandemic. Ceasefire withered. By 2021, reported homicides had spiked to 134, followed by more than 120 each of the next two years.

Mayor Thao declined to be interviewed, but said in a statement that her top priority is “promoting a safer and more prosperous Oakland.” She called restoration of the Ceasefire program a crucial strategy in bringing down crime.

Bruce Vuong says he was threatened outside his Oakland auto shop with a shotgun pressed to his head.

(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)

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Late last year, Thao named Holly Joshi, a former Oakland Police Department official and nonprofit executive, as chief of the city’s Department of Violence Prevention. Joshi agreed that intervening with people identified as most at risk for and of violence will be key to cutting crime.

“The message to them is, ‘You’re on the police’s radar, our street-level intelligence says you are on your enemy’s radar … and, at this moment, you are at high risk of going to prison or being killed,’“ Joshi said. She added that they are then told: “We love you. We believe in you. There are other options.”

The question of how much faith, and money, to put in the Police Department remains contentious. As a city councilwoman, Thao supported some efforts to rein in police spending, including reducing the number of police academy classes, but she has reversed course. As mayor, her office has touted that she is “investing in a robust Police Department.”

The department had 711 sworn officers in January, up from the 693 when she took office a year earlier, her staff reported. That’s still below the 749 officers it had in 2019.

Thao’s office also said it is working to shift some duties previously handled by police to nonuniformed city workers — for example, directing thousands of mental-health-related calls that are not emergencies to EMTs and community intervention specialists. The city recently announced it would use a state grant to hire at least six more safety “ambassadors” for Chinatown and downtown to respond to less-threatening situations.

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Vehicle break-ins are pervasive across Oakland — and some thieves are now attempting the smash-and-grabs while cars are occupied.

(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)

Still, the traditional response of adding more police is a hard sell in this city. The Oakland Police Department has been under federal supervision for more than 20 years, stemming from a scandal in which four officers known as “the Riders” were accused of assaulting and framing West Oakland residents, most of them Black.

Scandals — along with a rotating roster of police chiefs — continued through last year, when Thao fired then-Chief LeRonne Armstrong after an outside investigation found problems in the department’s handling of two officer misconduct cases. An independent arbitrator later sided with the chief, saying in a nonbinding ruling that his firing should be reversed.

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“We have a history we can look back on of relying on apprehension and punishment,” said Councilwoman Carroll Fife, a progressive who represents downtown. “That hasn’t worked. Data show that communities with more access to services have less crime.”

The Rev. Harry Williams, a street minister who works with young people, echoed those sentiments.

“Adding more police without more mental health, more school programs, more jobs is like putting a top on a boiling pot,” he said. “Eventually it’s going to boil over.”

The Rev. Harry Williams is among the longtime Oaklanders who believe the city’s crime problem calls for more investment in schools and social programs. Otherwise, he says, “adding more police … is like putting a top on a boiling pot.”

(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)

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Many retailers, particularly small-business owners, find themselves torn. They are committed to Oakland, they say, but are worn down by a sense of lawlessness. A growing chorus is pressing for a stronger police presence, wanting to see criminals held accountable.

“There are a lot of jobs out there. Everybody is hiring. There are classes out there. So get a job. Get an education,” said Brenda Grisham, who owns tax preparation and beauty supply businesses and helped organize the recall effort against Price. “We have to stop making excuses for people who do not excel.”

Perhaps no crime has become as universally endured in Oakland as “bipping.” That’s the street term for the practice of breaking car windows, usually followed by stealing whatever is inside. In an alarming twist, some thieves are committing the smash-and-grabs while drivers are still at the wheel.

Car burglary reports in 2023 came in at the rate of more than 37 a day — a one-third increase over the daily average from the most recent five years. In the first eight weeks of this year, the rate had fallen to less than half of that. City leaders struggle to explain either trend.

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Adding to a sense of unease is a policy that means suspects often get away, even when they are spotted at the crime scene.

Since 2014, Oakland has barred officers from pursuing suspects who are not armed with a gun or involved in a forcible or violent crime. The policy says that “protection of human life shall be the primary consideration” in deciding whether to pursue a suspect.

Late last month, video cameras caught robbers making off with $100,000 worth of jade collectibles from a store on upscale Piedmont Avenue. Responding officers spotted four suspects jumping into a car, but did not follow.

Though “scared and sad,” the store owners pledged to persevere.

Calling conditions in the city “alarming and unacceptable,” Gov. Gavin Newsom in February ordered a “surge” of 120 California Highway Patrol officers into Oakland, a deployment that was repeated this month. Officials said the temporary escalations led to the recovery of 360 stolen vehicles and the arrest of 168 people.

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More CHP reinforcements will come as needed, the governor’s office said. And Caltrans plans to install cameras at more locations along highways and to clean up homeless encampments deemed a risk to public safety.

Some businesses in Oakland have installed tall chain-link fencing around employee parking areas to prevent break-ins of workers’ cars.

(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)

Thao called the state support “a game-changer in helping us hold more criminals accountable.” But some saw the CHP deployments as a media stunt by a governor positioning himself to look tough on crime as he contemplates a run for national office.

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“You’re not going to solve decades of oppression and systemic inequality with four days of over-policing,” said Robert Symens-Bucher, a lifelong Oakland resident who works for a nonprofit that mentors young men. “Those resources could be put into programs that would serve the community and actually help people in a sustained way.”

Back at Eddie’s Liquors, owner David Shrestha said he still considers Rockridge a “great neighborhood.” He described how neighbors rallied around the store, showing support by making extra purchases after the last incursion in January.

Shrestha has installed a line of concrete posts along the front of Eddie’s, making another vehicle drive-through less likely. Asked whether the crime spree might drive him out, he said he couldn’t just ignore his deep investment in the store.

“It has been 14 to 18 hours a day that we have been here,” he said. “We have done so much. We can’t just walk away.”

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Dr Oz helps older woman who collapsed during Trump’s speech at Kentucky event

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Dr Oz helps older woman who collapsed during Trump’s speech at Kentucky event

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Dr. Mehmet Oz rushed to help after a woman collapsed during President Donald Trump’s speech in Kentucky on Wednesday.

About halfway through Trump’s remarks at Verst Logistics in Hebron, Kentucky, an older woman behind the president’s riser appeared to need medical attention, prompting Trump to ask the crowd, “Do we have a doctor in the house? Take your time, please.”

A medical team quickly reached her, including Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Dr. Oz.

“First responders are incredible,” Trump said as he turned and watched emergency medical personnel take care of the woman.

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DR. OZ REVEALS HOW HE IS BRINGING CHANGE TO DC AND HELPING THE MOST VULNERABLE AMERICANS

Dr. Mehmet Oz, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator, gave a thumbs up after helping a woman who fainted while President Donald Trump spoke at Verst Logistics in Hebron, Kentucky, on March 11. (Jim WATSON / AFP via Getty Images)

The president paused his remarks and asked if a song could be played in the meantime.

“Do you think the people backstage are listening to me?” Trump said, adding that if they could hear him, he suggested playing “Ave Maria.”

The song did not play, and Trump continued to watch as the woman received treatment.

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DR. OZ WARNS WALZ TO ADDRESS ALLEGED SOMALI MEDICAID FRAUD OR LOSE FEDERAL FUNDING: ‘WE’LL STOP PAYING’

President Donald Trump reacts as Dr. Mehmet Oz joins first responders assisting a woman who collapsed during his speech. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

“Take your time,” he said. “She looks great.”

As first responders began escorting the woman away, Trump noticed Oz was among those helping her.

“It’s Dr. Oz! Can you believe it? Dr. Oz!” Trump said. “He’s a good doctor. Thank you, Oz.”

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RFK JR: DR OZ SAYS TRUMP HAS ‘HIGHEST TESTOSTERONE LEVEL’ HE’S SEEN IN A MAN OLDER THAN 70

Dr. Mehmet Oz assisted a woman who collapsed during President Donald Trump’s speech in Hebron, Kentucky, on Wednesday. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Trump resumed his remarks about seven minutes later, returning to criticism of California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“We were talking about Gavin New-scum,” Trump said with a laugh. “Doesn’t seem like a very good subject right now. It made that young lady not feel so good.”

Wednesday’s event was not the first time Oz, a former heart surgeon, assisted during a medical episode while serving in the Trump administration.

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In April, a young girl fainted near the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office while Trump was speaking during Oz’s swearing-in ceremony.

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Oz quickly rushed over to assist the child, who was later confirmed to be a member of his family.

In November, a man collapsed in the Oval Office as Trump was giving a press conference, prompting Oz to once again step in to help.

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‘Just sign it.’ Video appears to show $5-a-pop ballot petition fraud; state launches probe

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‘Just sign it.’ Video appears to show -a-pop ballot petition fraud; state launches probe

A video circulating online appears to show signature collectors paying people to sign initiative petitions under other people’s names, according to officials, and now the state has opened an investigation.

The video, filmed by self-described street videographer JJ Smith, shows a long queue leading to a table set up at 6th and Mission streets in San Francisco. A man in line says they are being offered $5 to sign petitions. At the table, where there are lists with the information of apparent registered voters, a woman confirms the payment and — using a highlighter — instructs a person on the name and address that she is supposed to use.

“I get $5 too?” the person filming asks.

“Yeah,” says the woman.

“And what is it?”

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“Just sign it,” she says.

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Petitions connected to at least three ballot campaigns — including the billionaire-backed effort to thwart California’s proposed billionaire tax — appear in the video.

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“I approached some people and asked them what they were there for,” Smith told The Times. “They told me they didn’t know what they were signing for, that they just wanted the $5.”

Smith, whose real name is Omar Ward, has been known for posting images on social of people suffering from addiction on San Francisco’s streets.

He said he watched the scene for hours and estimated that a few hundred people cycled through the line over roughly two hours.

Those running the table did not ask for anyone’s identification and gave no explanation of what was actually being signed, he said.

The video showed voter data from San Luis Obispo County that was both visible and, as details were spoken aloud, audible in the footage.

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The county acted immediately after becoming aware of the video and initiated an investigation through the fraud unit of the California secretary of state’s office, said Erin Clausen, public information officer for the San Luis Obispo county clerk’s office.

Clausen noted that, although voter registration data can be legally requested from county election offices, the data in this case may have been used inappropriately. The county is also planning on reaching out directly to voters who were specifically mentioned or identified in the video, according to Clausen.

“The activity shown in the video, if verified, would violate California election law,” County Clerk-Recorder Elaina Cano said in a formal statement released Wednesday morning.

The secretary of state’s office confirmed it had opened a formal investigation.

“Under California law, it is illegal to give money or other valuable consideration to another in exchange for their signature on an initiative petition,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “Those who abuse our system will be held accountable.”

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The office is working with local officials and encouraged anyone with information to file a complaint.

One political committee, Californians for a More Transparent and Effective Government, confirmed its petitions were among those whose signature gatherers were allegedly paying people to sign and moved quickly to distance itself from the activity.

“Under no circumstance do we tolerate this type of activity in the signature-gathering process,” said spokesperson Molly Weedn. “We’ve taken immediate action and have demanded that the signature gathering firm identify these circulators and reject their petitions.” Weedn said the collectors were subcontractors, not campaign employees, and that attorneys were contacting authorities.

That committee is funded by another group, Building a Better California, also seen in the video. The other was for a proposed initiative called the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act of 2026. Representatives for the latter two have not responded to requests for comment.

Smith said this was not the first time he had witnessed this type of activity in the area.

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“I saw something similar with ballots three days ago,” he said.

The investigation is ongoing. Anyone with information can submit a complaint to the Office of the California Secretary of State or contact their local county elections office.

Times staff writer Seema Mehta contributed to this report.

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Reporter’s Notebook: Trump’s SAVE Act ultimatum runs into Senate reality

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Reporter’s Notebook: Trump’s SAVE Act ultimatum runs into Senate reality

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Passage of the SAVE America Act is of paramount importance to President Donald Trump and many congressional Republicans.

In his State of the Union speech, the president implored lawmakers “to approve the SAVE America Act to stop illegal aliens and other unpermitted persons from voting in our sacred American elections.”

The House approved the plan to require proof of citizenship to vote last month, 218-213. There’s now a different version of the legislation that’s in play. And, as is often the case, the hurdle is the Senate. Specifically, the Senate filibuster.

Attendees listen as Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, speaks at an “Only Citizens Vote” bus tour rally advocating passage of the SAVE Act at Upper Senate Park outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 10, 2025. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

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So some Republicans are trying to save the SAVE America Act.

It’s important to note that Trump never called for the Senate to alter the filibuster in his State of the Union address. But in a post last week on Truth Social, Trump declared, “The Republicans MUST DO, with PASSION, and at the expense of everything else, THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.”

Again, the president didn’t wade into questions about overcoming a filibuster. But “MUST DO” and “at the expense of everything else” is a clear directive from the commander in chief.

That’s why there’s a big push by House Republicans and some GOP senators to alter the filibuster — or handle the Senate filibuster differently.

It’s rare for members of one body of Congress to tell the other how to execute their rules and procedures. But the strongest conservative advocates of the SAVE America Act are now condemning Senate Republicans if they don’t do something drastic to change the filibuster to pass the measure.

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Some Senate Republicans are pushing for changes, or at the very least, advocating that Senate Republicans insist that Democrats conduct what they refer to as a “talking filibuster” and not hold up the legislation from the sidelines. It takes 60 votes to terminate a filibuster. The Senate does that by “invoking cloture.” The Senate first used the cloture provision to halt a filibuster on March 8, 1917. Prior to that vote, the only method to end a filibuster was exhaustion — meaning that senators finally just run out of gas, quit debating and finally voted.

So let’s explore what a filibuster is and isn’t and dive into what Republicans are talking about when they’re talking about a talking filibuster.

The Senate’s leading feature is unlimited debate. But, ironically, the “debate” which holds up most bills is not debate. It’s simply a group of 60 lawmakers signaling offstage to their leaders that they’ll stymie things. No one has to go to the floor to do anything. Opponents of a bill will require the majority tee up a cloture vote — even if legislation has 60 yeas. Each cloture vote takes three to four days to process. So that inherently slows down the process — and is a de facto filibuster.

But what about talking filibusters? Yes, senators sometimes take the floor and talk for a really long time, hence, the “unlimited debate” provision in the Senate. Senators can generally speak as long as they want, unless there’s a time agreement green-lighted by all 100 members.

That’s why a “filibuster” is hard to define. You won’t find the word “filibuster” in the Senate’s rules. And since senators can just talk as long as they want, they might argue that suggesting they are “filibustering” is pejorative. They’re just exercising their Senate rights to speak on the floor.

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A true filibuster is a delay. For instance, the record-breaking 25-hour and 8-minute speech last year by Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., against the Trump administration was technically not a filibuster. Booker began his oratory on the evening of March 31, ending on the night of April 1. Once Booker concluded, the Senate voted to confirm Matt Whittaker as NATO ambassador. The Senate was supposed to vote on the Whitaker nomination on April 1 anyway. So all Booker’s speech did was delay that confirmation vote by a few hours. But not much.

In October 2013, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, held the floor for more than 21 hours. It was part of Cruz’s quest to defund Obamacare. But despite Cruz’s verbosity (and a recitation of Green Eggs and Ham by Dr. Suess), the Senate was already locked in to take a procedural vote around 1 p.m. the next day. Preparations for that vote automatically ended Cruz’s speech. Thus, it truly wasn’t a filibuster either.

COLLINS BOOSTS REPUBLICAN VOTER ID EFFORT, BUT WON’T SCRAP FILIBUSTER

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, during an oversight hearing in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 17, 2025. (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

So, this brings us to the talking filibuster which actually gums up the Senate gearboxes. A talking filibuster is what most Americans think of when they hear the term “filibuster.” That’s thanks to the iconic scenes with Jimmy Stewart in the Frank Capra classic, “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.”

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Most senators filibuster by forcing the Senate to take two cloture votes — spread out over days — to handle even the simplest of matters. That elongates the process by close to a week. But if advocates of a given bill have the votes to break the filibuster via cloture, the gig is up.

However, what happens if a senator — or a group of senators delay things with long speeches? That can only last for so long. And it could potentially truncate the Senate’s need to take any cloture vote, needing 60 yeas.

Republicans who advocate passage of the SAVE America Act believe they can get around cloture — and thus the need for 60 votes — by making opponents of the legislation talk. And talk. And talk.

And once they’re done talking, the Senate can vote — up or down — on the SAVE Act. Passage requires a simple majority. The Senate never even needs to tangle with 60.

Senate Rule XIX (19) states that “no senator shall speak more than twice upon any one question in debate on the same legislative day.”

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Easy enough, right? Two speeches per day. You speak twice on Monday, then you have to wait until Tuesday? Democrats would eventually run out of juice after all 47 senators who caucus with Democrats have their say — twice.

But it’s not that simple. Note the part about two speeches per “question.”

Well, here’s a question. What constitutes a “question” in Senate parlance? A “question” could be the bill itself. It could be an amendment. It could be a motion. And just for the record, the Senate usually cycles through a “first-degree” amendment and then a “second-degree” amendment — to say nothing of the bill itself. So, if you’re scoring at home, that could be six (!) speeches per senator, per day, on any given “question.”

Questions?

But wait. There’s more.

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Note that Rule XIX refers to a “legislative day.” A legislative day is not the same as a calendar day. One basic difference is if the Senate “adjourns” each night versus “recessing.” If the Senate “adjourns” its Monday session on calendar day Monday, then a new legislative day begins on Tuesday. However, the legislative day of “Monday” carries over to Tuesday if the Senate “recesses.”

It may be up to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., whether the Senate “adjourns” or “recesses.” The creation of a new legislative day inhibits the GOP talking filibuster effort.

SEN LEE DARES DEMOCRATS TO REVIVE TALKING FILIBUSTER OVER SAVE ACT, SLAMMING CRITICISM AS ‘PARANOID FANTASY’

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., center, arrives for a news conference after a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in Washington. (Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo)

Democrats would obviously push for the Senate to adjourn each day. But watch to see if talking filibuster proponents object to Thune’s daily adjournment requests. If the Senate votes to stay in session, that forces the legislative day of Monday to bleed over to Tuesday.

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Pro tip: Keep an eye on the adjournment vs. recess scenario. If a talking filibuster supporter tries to prevent the Senate from adjourning, that may signal whether the GOP has a shot at eventually passing the SAVE Act. If that test vote fails and the Senate adjourns for the day, the SAVE Act is likely dead in the water.

We haven’t even talked about a custom practiced by most Senate majority leaders to lock down the contours of a bill when they file cloture to end debate.

It’s typical for the presiding officer to recognize the Senate majority leader first on the floor for debate. So Thune and his predecessors often “fill” what’s called the “amendment tree.” The amendment tree dictates how many amendments are in play at any one time. Think of the underlying bill as a “trunk.” A “branch” is for the first amendment. A “sprig” from that branch is the second amendment. Majority leaders often load up the amendment tree with “fillers” that don’t change the subject of the bill. He then files cloture to break the filibuster.

That tactic curbs the universe of amendments. It blocks the other side from engineering controversial amendments to alter the bill. But if Thune doesn’t file cloture to end debate, then the Senate must consider amendment after amendment, repeatedly filling the tree and voting on those amendments. This would unfold during a talking filibuster, not when Thune is controlling the process by filing cloture and “filling the tree.”

This is why Thune is skeptical of a talking filibuster to pass the SAVE Act.

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“This process is more complicated and risky than people are assuming at the moment,” said Thune.

In fact, the biggest “benefit” to filing cloture may not even be overcoming a filibuster, but blocking amendments via management of the tree. Republicans are bracing for amendments Democrats may offer.

“If you don’t think Democrats have a laundry list of amendments, talking about who won the 2020 election, talking about the Epstein files — if you don’t think they have a quiver full of these amendments that they’re ready to get Republican votes on the record, then I’ve got a bridge to sell you,” said George Washington University political science professor Casey Burgat.

Plus, forcing a talking filibuster for days precludes the Senate from passing a DHS funding bill. That’s to say nothing of confirming Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., as Homeland Security secretary. His confirmation hearing likely comes next Wednesday, but a protracted Senate debate would block a confirmation vote from the floor.

JEFFRIES ACCUSES REPUBLICANS OF ‘VOTER SUPPRESSION’ OVER BILL REQUIRING VOTER ID, PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP

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Sen. Markwayne Mullin, Republican from Oklahoma, addresses reporters at the U.S. Capitol after being tapped as President Donald Trump’s new nominee to lead DHS, March 5, 2026. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Thune all but killed the talking filibuster maneuver on Tuesday — despite the president’s ultimatum.

“Do you run a risk of being on the wrong side of President Trump and your resistance to do this talking filibuster, tying the Senate in knots for weeks?” asked yours truly.

“We don’t have the votes either to proceed, get on a talking filibuster, nor to sustain one if we got on it,” replied Thune. “I understand the president’s got a passion to see this issue addressed.”

I followed up.

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“Does he understand that, though?”

“Well, we’ve conveyed that to him,” answered Thune. “It’s about the math. And, for better or worse, I’m the one who has to be a clear-eyed realist about what we can achieve here.”

And there just doesn’t appear to be any parliamentary way to get there with the talking filibuster.

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Like many things in Congress, it all boils down to one thing.

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As Thune said, “it’s about the math.”

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