KINGSTON, R.I. – Oct. 15, 2024 – Amid a polarizing presidential campaign, a University of Rhode Island opinion poll released today finds agreement across party affiliations on issues of election integrity, trust in election officials and concerns about election-related violence – while seeing a divide in worries over voter fraud.

The poll – the second annual edition from URI’s Rhode Island Survey Initiative – surveyed a representative sample of 500 Rhode Island residents ages 18 and older between Aug. 15 and Sept. 8, 2024. The survey was administered by the highly respected polling firm YouGov via the internet; participants were chosen from YouGov’s opt-in survey panel of Rhode Island residents who agree to participate in YouGov surveys. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 6.02%.

“While there are national polls that also focus on American confidence in election administration, our survey results offer a detailed snapshot of Rhode Islanders’ levels of trust in election authorities and systems and trust in government as well as attitudes about democracy, media, policy, and political participation in the state,” said Emily Lynch, URI professor of political science. “The survey results indicate that Rhode Islanders trust state election systems, but at the same time they have concerns about the upcoming election in a number of areas, such as AI-generated fake political information and political violence.”

Majorities from each party – Democrats (92%), Independents (69%), and Republicans (55%) – say they feel votes are somewhat often or very often counted accurately. And solid majorities of all three parties – Democrats (85%), Republicans (79%), and Independents (73%) – think political violence is a somewhat or very big problem in the U.S. today. A smaller majority of all three are concerned about civil unrest after election day in Rhode Island.

There was a divide on questions about fraud, however. A majority of Republicans and Independents are somewhat or very concerned about voter fraud – specifically noncitizen voting, citizens voting more than once, vote tampering, and people claiming to be another person in order to vote. Democrats lagged on all four questions – with the highest level of concern (37%) found with regard to vote tampering.

The survey also asked respondents who they will vote for on Nov. 5 in the presidential race and the state’s U.S. Senate race. Among those who indicated that they were registered voters, 53% said they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and 27% backed former President Donald Trump, while 52% indicated they would vote for incumbent U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, and 24%, state Rep. Patricia Morgan.

The 2024 Rhode Island Survey Initiative looked at numerous topics affecting Rhode Island residents, from government spending and public schools to the blue economy and quality of life. It also included a special module on elections, trust, and democracy, which included questions about political violence and election interference. Complete results can be found on the survey website.

“The last few months have been a whirlwind in American politics and we were able to include specific hot topics at the national and state level in this year’s survey,” said Julie Keller, an associate professor of sociology and director of the Social Science Institute for Research, Education, and Policy. 

Among the key findings are:

Trust in election officials: A majority of respondents reported that they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in election authorities – poll workers, local boards of canvassers, the state Board of Elections and Department of State. Across party affiliations, Rhode Islanders had a fair amount or great deal of trust in the state’s voting machines, led by Democrats (93%), Republicans (71%), and Independents (69%). Meanwhile, only 34% and 35% of Republicans had a fair amount or great deal of trust in mail ballot drop boxes and mailing a ballot using the U.S. Postal Service, respectively – compared with 84% of Democrats and 43% of Independents on both mail ballot questions.

Worries about AI and R.I. elections: About 6 in 10 respondents worry artificial intelligence will somewhat or greatly hurt the election process. No matter party affiliation, the majority of respondents – 79% of Republicans, 77% of Democrats, and 77% of Independents – are somewhat or very concerned about the use of AI-generated political media, such as fake images or video, and support state legislation to ban AI-generated political media.

General Assembly election-related legislation: An overall majority of respondents also back many of the other proposed bills before the assembly related to elections. A solid majority of Republicans (80%) – and smaller majorities of Democrats (56%) and Independents (69%) – support legislation that would increase the responsibilities of the state Division of Motor Vehicles in preventing noncitizens from registering to vote. Smaller majorities support limits on who can mail another person’s mail ballot, while only a majority of Democrats (56%) approve legislation related to rank-choice voting in Rhode Island presidential primaries.

Opinions on media and politics: The top social media sites for respondents to get political and election news are Facebook (44%), YouTube (40%), Instagram (33%) and TikTok (23%). The top three national media sources for Rhode Islanders are Fox News, CNN, and NBC Nightly News. When it comes to local reporting on elections and campaigns, there is a split in opinion on the fairness of journalists. A solid majority of Democrats (80%) feel journalists provide fair coverage of elections somewhat often or very often. Meanwhile, 68% of Republicans and 66% of Independents feel Rhode Islanders are somewhat often or very often exposed to inaccurate information.

Public policy, education and quality of life: A majority of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans support an increase in spending on education, housing, and building and repairing roads. Asked to select the most important priorities for the governor and General Assembly, Democrats included housing (55%), health care (45%), and education (43%); Independents, housing (58%), health care (40%), and roads and bridges (38%); and Republicans, roads and bridges (54%), crime (53%), and housing (43%). 

Polled for the second year on the most important problem facing K-12 public schools in Rhode Island, the largest increase between 2023 and 2024 was in the percentage of respondents who chose insufficient funding (up six percentage points, to 29%). The poll showed a rise in satisfaction with the overall quality of life in Rhode Island over the last year, going from 45% to 52% of respondents, and perceptions that the state’s economy is very or somewhat strong, an increase of five percentage points, to 22%. Results were fairly consistent with last year’s percentages because of the poll’s margin of error.

An annual opinion poll

The Rhode Island Survey Initiative was launched last year by a team of researchers from URI’s Harrington School for Communication and Media; Social Science Institute for Research, Education, and Policy; and the Department of Political Science, with plans to conduct at least one survey of Rhode Island residents each year. Each poll will include different focus areas, with some repeated questions to gauge the change in attitudes of Rhode Island residents.

Keller said the survey initiative reflects the institute’s goal of providing evidence-based insights to communities across the state.

“The initiative continues to strengthen experiential learning opportunities for URI students while helping to inform decision-making across the state,” she said. “This year, more organizations were consulted about what topic areas should be addressed. And more faculty trained students to work with the data as well.”

College of Arts and Sciences Fellows Delaney Sullivan ’25 and Abigail Noetzel ’26 helped choose election topics in the survey’s election module based on research and interviews and helped construct the survey questionnaire using an online survey tool. Their research included reviewing information about local and federal elections and public opinion in academic articles, books, and reports; listening to local political podcasts and shows; and conducting interviews with state and local election officials and advocacy groups.

“Interviewing election officials allowed me to understand our election system more extensively,” said Sullivan, a double major in political science and criminology and criminal justice. “I believe that public opinion research in Rhode Island has been minimal, which is why I think this survey is vital to election officials and residents in Rhode Island, as it allows us to understand the state better.” 

“Going forward, I am confident that I can excel in my courses at URI given what I have learned through the fellowship, especially in terms of research,” said Noetzel, a double major in psychology and criminology and criminal justice. “I have developed countless transferable skills, and I am super grateful for that.”

Note about methodology

Party identification was constructed using the seven-point scale in which self-identified Democrats and Independent-leaning Democrats were combined into the “Democrat” category; self-identified Republicans and Independent-leaning Republicans were combined into the “Republican” category; and Independents are in the “Independent” category.