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Shrinking California Still Dreams, but More Modestly

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Shrinking California Still Dreams, but More Modestly

California has long beckoned with its coastal beauty and bustle — the magnetic pull of Hollywood, the power of Silicon Valley.

That allure helped make it a cultural, economic and political force. For 170 years, growth was constant and expansion felt boundless. And it was easy to be drawn in by the lore.

“Everybody knew that there was no prejudice or discrimination of any kind, that the streets were paved with gold and anybody could be somebody — it was the land of the future,” recalled Adrian Dove, the longtime chairman of the Kingdom Day Parade in South Los Angeles.

By early 2020, California’s population had soared to nearly 40 million residents, with another 10 million expected in the coming decades.

Then, with the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath, the trend reversed: The state lost more people than it gained in each of the last three years and shrank to less than 39 million people. Recent data released by the state Finance Department now offers a stunning prediction: The population could stagnate for the next four decades.

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Suddenly, the Golden State, so proudly aware of its popularity, finds itself having to rethink its identity.

When Mr. Dove moved as a child to Los Angeles from Dallas in 1945, he felt a sense of freedom when it came to his ambitions. Graduating from Compton High School, he went on to study at Harvard University. But now, at 88 years old, Mr. Dove acknowledges that similar trajectories can feel unattainable to many in a region that he believes has plenty of resources but struggles to spread the wealth.

“California is still the dream,” he said, “but there’s not enough for everybody.”

That feeling reverberates around the state as rents soar, the median sale price of a single family home hovers around $830,000 and homeless encampments proliferate. The promise of easy living in Mediterranean weather has faded in the shadow of a housing crisis.

“We’re witnessing the death of the thing that really made California great, which was its middle class,” said the writer Héctor Tobar, 60, whose novels have explored the economic divide in the state.

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“What fueled the boom in population was the new subdivisions, it was people migrating here to get a taste of middle-class life. And today California is divided more than ever into rich and poor.”

Mr. Tobar’s own father was able to access that middle-class life, arriving from Guatemala with a sixth-grade education but managing to eventually obtain an associate degree and find work in the hotel industry. California living, he insisted, meant that his son would grow taller than him. “I guessed that we would grow up to be this race of giants,” Mr. Tobar said. “It was a place of plenty and opportunity.”

The reasons for the plateau are not surprising. Fertility rates have declined as couples wait longer to have children, focusing on education or establishing their careers. Which can often mean having fewer children or none. At the same time, the death rate is expected to rise as the baby boomer generation ages.

The most variable, and perhaps critical, component to the expected population is migration.

It is not a new phenomenon for people to leave the state to get a new job, find a lower cost of living or be closer to family. But when Covid-19 restrictions were in place, those factors were amplified. Workers were allowed to perform the same job remotely in another state while dramatically cutting their expenses. And immigration came to a standstill.

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Eric McGhee, a senior fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California, said those leaving make up about 1 or 2 percent of the total population, not the exodus some would believe. (“Tell me: Where are you going to go?” former Gov. Jerry Brown once mused as he dismissed the popular notion that Californians were headed elsewhere en masse.) But, Mr. McGhee noted, those departures send a disconcerting signal about the lifestyle available in California, that the state is less welcoming to lower-wage workers and younger generations.

“There is this kind of broader philosophical question that has to do with why are we losing people to other states?” he said. “Why is it that California, which has these very dynamic industries, can’t seem to accommodate the people who want to be here?”

Politically, California’s influence could shrink while other states like Texas and Florida grow. California already lost a congressional district for the first time in its history, after the 2020 census, and could eventually lose more.

A dearth of young people and immigrants also will mean less consumer spending, and a smaller labor force, threatening the dynamism that has fueled California’s growth for decades..

California is already in a constant state of bumping up against its boundaries: the dramatic swings between flood and drought. An intractable homeless crisis that has increased tension in many cities. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Even Hollywood has lost its luster as the ongoing strikes reveal deep problems for the movie industry in a digital era.

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America has always had a frontier mentality, but perhaps that should be reimagined, said Chris Tilly, a professor of urban planning and sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles.

“Maybe it’s time for us to grow up and realize we live in a world of limits,” he said. “That could be a level of maturity. If California is in a position to lead the country and come to terms with its limitations on growth, that could be a way California could still be in the lead. Which could really be an interesting twist.”

Of course, the population was never meant to grow infinitely. Leveling off can be a good thing when it comes to creating more sustainable approaches as climate change forces California to think differently. The increasing threat of catastrophic wildfire, for instance, has persuaded many leaders that the state cannot keep converting rural land into large suburbs.

And California remains the most populous state in the nation, with 10 million more residents than Texas, the second-largest state. Public agencies looking at the data to make planning decisions are using it to make projections, but not sounding an alarm.

“The momentum doesn’t shift for us,” said Kome Ajise, the executive director of the Southern California Association of Governments, a joint powers authority that focuses on mobility, sustainability and livability.

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“There is that mythical feel about California, but there is some substance to that draw that is more real,” Mr. Ajise said. “We have all the foundational industries, like entertainment and hospitality, and a big job market. The basic economic foundation of California is still in place.”

Natalia Molina, a professor of American studies and ethnicity at the University of Southern California, said the state’s path can be looked at “as a harbinger of what does it mean when you don’t have affordable housing, investment in social welfare, clear immigration policies.”

Yet, Ms. Molina notes that her grandmother left Mexico and arrived alone in California, then ran a successful restaurant that welcomed other immigrants. Threads of similar stories seemed apparent to her on a recent Saturday when she picked up a sandwich from a century-old restaurant started by a French immigrant in downtown Los Angeles, then drove through Chinatown, where both aguas frescas and boba can be found.

Communities have been forged here that still feel special and worth sticking around for, she said.

“As long as people are showing up and willing to do the work,” she said, “the California dream is alive and well, although a little more anemic these days.”

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New York

Two Men’s Fight to Protect the Geese at the Central Park Reservoir

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Two Men’s Fight to Protect the Geese at the Central Park Reservoir

Whether goslings live or die at the Central Park Reservoir could be up to two 70-something, nature-loving men who first crossed paths there this winter.

Edward Dorson, a wildlife photographer and regular visitor to the reservoir, learned in 2021 that federal workers were destroying the eggs of Canada geese there as part of a government safety program to decrease bird collisions with airplanes. He tried to stop it.

He reached out to animal rights organizations and wrote letters to various government agencies. He got nowhere.

Then in December, he met Larry Schnapf, a tough-talking environmental lawyer, who spotted Mr. Dorson admiring the birds and introduced himself. Mr. Dorson told him about the nest destruction. Mr. Schnapf, in his 40-year legal career, had mostly focused on redeveloping contaminated properties but had picked up the occasional pro bono passion project. “I told him I take on quixotic pursuits,” Mr. Schnapf said.

Now, they are teaming up to protect the eggs of a small population of Canada geese that nest around the reservoir, a popular attraction for joggers and bird watchers. The battle will undoubtedly be uphill: They are lobbying multiple government agencies during a fraught time in aviation where bird strikes are one of many concerns, on behalf of a bird often described as a nuisance because of its honking cries and the droppings it leaves on lawns, parks and golf courses.

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The men say they appreciate the importance of protecting planes. But they are seeking to exempt the Central Park Reservoir from the egg destruction program so that it can serve as a sanctuary for the nesting geese. They argue that Central Park is far enough from the area’s airports that the geese do not pose a major problem.

Mr. Schnapf said he plans to send a cease-and-desist letter to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which oversees five major airports in the region, including Kennedy International Airport, Newark Liberty International Airport and LaGuardia Airport. The agency works with an arm of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on the safety program. “I think this is all unlawful,” he said. “These are protected animals.”

Port Authority officials did not comment on the advocacy plans of the two men. But they stressed that government efforts like those underway in Central Park were part of creating safer conditions for air travel.

“Managing wildlife risks — especially from resident Canada geese — near our airports is a life safety imperative and essential to maintaining safe operations,” said Laura Francoeur, the Port Authority’s chief wildlife biologist.

Although Canada geese are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, authorities have obtained a waiver to control the population. The birds, which can weigh as much as 19 pounds and have a wingspan up to 5.5 feet, according to the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, can get sucked into plane engines and bring an aircraft down.

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Between 2008 and 2023, there were 451 aviation accidents involving commercial aircraft in the United States, with a total of 17 caused by bird strikes, producing five injuries and no fatalities, according to the National Transportation Safety Board.

New York City tightened its grip on Canada geese in 2009, after a collision with a flock caused US Airways Flight 1549, piloted by Chesley B. Sullenberger III, to lose both its engines shortly after it took off from LaGuardia. The plane was forced into an emergency water landing in what is now commonly known as the “miracle on the Hudson.”

The event prompted the Port Authority to ask the Department of Agriculture for help. In 2010, federal wildlife workers took on the management of Canada geese populations within seven miles of the city’s major airports, including in city parks.

Mr. Schnapf calls the current rules an overreach, since Federal Aviation Administration guidelines call for wildlife management only within five miles of airports. A Port Authority spokeswoman said the agency honors all federal regulations, including addressing wildlife hazards within five miles of airports. But she added that the agency will often go beyond that radius when specific threats arise.

Data from the F.A.A. shows that Canada geese strikes at LaGuardia and Kennedy Airports have remained consistent over the last two decades, with between zero and four instances per year.

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Canada geese thrive in people-friendly landscapes, and their population has boomed throughout North America over the last four decades. Many geese have become so comfortable in parks and other green spaces, like the reservoir, that they have stopped migrating, becoming year-round residents.

There are about 228,000 resident Canada geese in New York State, up from 150,000 in 2002. The state’s Department of Environmental Conservation would like to see that number shrink to 85,000.

The two men fighting for the Central Park Reservoir’s resident geese were both born in the Bronx, are similar in age and diet (one is a vegetarian, the other a vegan). But the similarities more or less end there.

Mr. Dorson, 77, an accomplished underwater photographer and conservationist with a background in the arts, is a soft-spoken lover of hard-to-love animals — he helped start a shark sanctuary in Palau, in Micronesia. Mr. Schnapf, 72, is a fast-talking, fast-acting networker who is not afraid to make noise.

“I told Ed,” he said, “you’ve got to rattle the bureaucracy.”

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Mr. Dorson and Mr. Schnapf are hoping to meet with officials from the Port Authority, the Central Park Conservancy and the city’s Department of Environmental Protection, which oversees the reservoir, among other decision makers.

”All we’re trying to do is get them to talk to us, so we can come up with a plan so at least some of those eggs can be hatched,” Mr. Schnapf said.

Mr. Dorson admitted that, right now, “I don’t see too many people like me who are worried about the geese.”

“But maybe 10 years from now, when there are no geese here, then people might feel the loss,” he said. “I’d like to change that.”

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Outside Official Will Take Over Deadly Rikers Island Jail, Judge Orders

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Outside Official Will Take Over Deadly Rikers Island Jail, Judge Orders

A federal judge overseeing New York City’s jails took Rikers Island out of the city’s control on Tuesday, ordering that an outside official be appointed to make major decisions regarding the troubled and violent jail complex.

The judge, Laura Taylor Swain, said in a 77-page ruling that the official would report directly to her and would not be a city employee, turning aside Mayor Eric Adams’s efforts to maintain control of the lockups. The official, called a remediation manager, would work with the New York City correction commissioner, but be “empowered to take all actions necessary” to turn around the city’s jails, she wrote.

“While the necessary changes will take some time, the court expects to see continual progress toward these goals,” Judge Swain wrote.

The order comes nearly a decade after the city’s jails, which include the Rikers Island complex, fell under federal oversight in the settlement of a class-action lawsuit. The agreement focused on curbing the use of force and violence toward both detainees and correction officers. A court-appointed monitor issued regular reports on the persistent mayhem.

New York City has held onto its control of Rikers with white knuckles — struggling to show progress and reaching the brink of losing oversight of the jails as critics of the system have called for a receiver. Conditions have not improved, according to lawyers for the plaintiffs and the federal monitor.

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The city’s jail population has grown to more than 7,000 from a low of about 4,000 in 2020. And in the first three months of this year, five people died at Rikers or shortly after being released from city custody, equaling the number of detainees who died in all of 2024.

In a statement, lawyers from the Legal Aid Society and Emery Celli Brinckerhoff Abady Ward & Maazel, which represent detainees, said they commended the court’s “historic decision.”

“For years, the New York City Department of Correction has failed to follow federal court orders to enact meaningful reforms, allowing violence, disorder and systemic dysfunction to persist,” said Mary Lynne Werlwas and Debra Greenberger. “This appointment marks a critical turning point.”

The remediation manager will be a receiver in all but name. The official will be granted “broad powers” as plaintiffs had asked, Judge Swain wrote, but will also develop a plan for improvement in concert with the correction commissioner.

Such arrangements are the last resort for a troubled jail or prison. Since 1974, federal courts have put only nine jail systems in receivership, not counting Tuesday’s Rikers order.

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The ruling was another blow for Mr. Adams, who is fighting for his political life after the Trump administration dropped corruption charges against him so that he could assist with its deportation efforts. Many of his confidants have also faced investigations, he is on his fourth police commissioner and his approval ratings have hit historic lows.

Now, the mayor, a former police captain, has lost most control of an institution that employs about 5,000 people represented by the Correction Officers’ Benevolent Association, a union that has been a bastion of political support.

On Tuesday, even as prisoners rights organizations and some of Mr. Adams’s campaign opponents celebrated, the mayor disputed whether Judge Swain’s order constituted a receivership and painted it as a benefit.

“The problems at Rikers are decades in the making,” he said. “We finally got stability.”

In a statement, Benny Boscio, president of the correction officers’ union, said that Judge Swain’s order had preserved the right to representation and collective bargaining, and he made clear that the guards must be reckoned with.

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“The city’s jails cannot operate without us,” he said. “And no matter what the new management of our jails looks like, the path toward a safer jail system begins with supporting the essential men and women who help run the jails every day.”

New York City has spent more than $500,000 per inmate annually in recent years, according to city data, well beyond what other large cities have spent, and yet detainees still sometimes go without food or proper medical care.

A New York Times investigation in 2021 found that guards are often stationed in inefficient ways that fail to protect detainees. And although the jail system has consistently been the most well-staffed in the United States — there is roughly one uniformed officer for each inmate at Rikers, according to city data — an unlimited sick leave policy and other uses of leave have meant that there are too few guards present to keep inmates safe.

The class-action lawsuit that led to the takeover, known as Nunez v. City of New York, was settled in June 2015 and required that the jails be overseen by a court-appointed monitor who would issue regular reports on conditions there but would wield no direct power to effect change.

Through those reports, Judge Swain was given an extensive history of the cyclical nature of the jail system’s problems. Through the administration of two mayors and several correction commissioners, the jails continued to devolve, according to prisoners’ rights advocates and the monitor’s reports. In November, the judge found the city in contempt for failing to stem violence and excessive force at the facility, which is currently run by Correction Commissioner Lynelle Maginley-Liddie.

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Over the years, the city has argued that the Department of Correction has made progress, even as Judge Swain issued remedial orders and the monitor and prisoners’ advocates pointed to backsliding.

In 2023, Damian Williams, then Manhattan’s top prosecutor, joined calls for the appointment of an outside authority to take control of Rikers, saying that the city had been “unable or unwilling” to make reforms under two mayors and four correction commissioners.

On Tuesday, Jay Clayton, whom President Trump appointed last month as interim U.S. attorney, said Judge Swain’s decision was a “welcomed and much needed milestone.”

In a 65-page opinion last year, Judge Swain said that the city and the Department of Correction had violated the constitutional rights of prisoners and staff members by exposing them to danger, and had intentionally ignored her orders for years. Officials had fallen into an “unfortunate cycle” in which initiatives were abandoned and then restarted under new administrations, she wrote.

An inability to operate independently of politics is what has kept Rikers from turning around, said Elizabeth Glazer, the founder of Vital City and a former criminal justice adviser under Mayor Bill de Blasio.

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“Every new administration, there’s a reset,” she said. “Every new crisis, there’s a reset.”

Last year, Judge Swain ordered city leaders to meet with lawyers for prisoners to create a plan for an “outside person,” known as a receiver, who could run the system.

The parties met in recent months to try to reach an agreement, in deliberations overseen by the federal monitor, Steve J. Martin. He told the court that the parties and his team had been “actively engaged” in discussions.

In the end, the sides submitted dueling proposals.

The Legal Aid Society and a private law firm representing incarcerated people argued that the court should strip the city of control and install a receiver who would answer only to the court. The receiver should be given broad power to make changes, they proposed, including with regard to staffing and union contracts that govern it.

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The receiver, they said, could “review, investigate and take disciplinary or other corrective or remedial actions with respect to violations of D.O.C. policies, procedures and protocols” related to the court order.

In its plan, the city offered to give Ms. Maginley-Liddie dual roles by adding the title of “compliance director” to her responsibilities. The city proposed that she answer to the court on issues related to the consent decree, such as safety and staffing shortages, while answering to the mayor on everything else.

However, the city has had a “a multitude of opportunities” to improve its management of the jails and has “proven unable or unwilling to take advantage of those opportunities,” said Hernandez D. Stroud, a senior fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law.

“Judge Swain was left no other choice,” he said.

Emma G. Fitzsimmons contributed reporting.

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‘A World-Wise Waitress Came to the Table and Scoped Out the Group’

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‘A World-Wise Waitress Came to the Table and Scoped Out the Group’

Dear Diary:

It was the early 2000s. I had been resisting my friends’ invitations to join them in a night of dancing at one of those only-in-New-York, late-night parties held in the kind of dark, crowded clubs that were tucked into quiet streets along the Hudson River at the time.

Intense, sweat-soaked group experiences like that didn’t appeal to me.

At some point, I gave in and spent six hours one night dancing as hard as I possibly could. It was magic. I had found my tribe.

As the early spring morning broke over Manhattan, seven of us left the club together, footsore, sweaty, exhilarated and exhausted, and then settled in for breakfast at a nearby diner.

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I felt as if I had been initiated, let into the heavy rites of a secret fraternity. I was now one of those guys.

A world-wise waitress came to the table and scoped out the group.

“Oh, puppy!” she said. “Puppy! What happened to you? Did you get off the porch and play with the big dogs?”

I nodded.

“Don’t say a word,” she said. “I know just what you need.”

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She took the other six orders and went to the kitchen. She returned a few minutes later, bringing me a mound of scrambled eggs, several strips of bacon, a toasted bagel and a big glass of cranberry juice.

It was best breakfast of my life.

— Gary Clinton


Dear Diary:

He slid the oval dish toward us, a perfectly clean column of cream waiting at the edge of the plate, an arrow made of ladyfingers and mascarpone pointed directly at our hearts.

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Befuddled, we looked at him, then at the bartender’s face, which evolved from confusion to adoration.

“Here,” said the stranger I had been shoulder to shoulder with as we ate an Italian supper on a Saturday night in Carroll Gardens. He gestured toward his plate of tiramisu (well, our plate of tiramisu). “You try it.”

Just a few minutes before, I had gestured toward the plate with my eyes while craving it under my breath to my friend.

The two of us had shared a regretful, longing glance: We should have gotten dessert. Now, we were being offered the last bite of someone else’s.

I was almost afraid to ask the bartender for a spoon. Was this kind of sharing allowed?

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Before I could think too hard, shiny silver spoons were resting on the counter, then caressed in our hands, then sinking into the custard with an Olympic diver’s grace, and then, satisfyingly, into our open mouths.

It turned out the owner’s father came into the place every morning and made the tiramisu by hand.

— Jordana Hope Bornstein


Dear Diary:

Marilyn, you’re dead, but I am alive
Standing on a subway grate
Your subway grate
On the southwest corner
Of 52nd and Lexington
There are no signs of any sort
No indication of commemoration
Drip, Drip, Drip, raindrops
Zoom, Zoom, Hustle & Bustle
New York’s in motion
While I stand soaked, remembering
The poems you used to write
I loved the one about the bridges
I’ve read it at gigs
It always gets a big response
Marilyn, you’re dead, but I’m alive
Issuing a reminder
So you can remember
You are not going alone

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— Danny Klecko


Dear Diary:

It was spring 1975. I was 23 and had been in New York for less than six months. I was working as a secretary at Artkraft Strauss, and “The Sunshine Boys” was filming around the corner.

During one lunch hour, Walter Matthau appeared in a shabby overcoat. Gathering all of my courage, I asked him for an autograph.

Almost smiling, he asked my name.

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I panicked. Should I ask for two autographs? Would that be too much? I decided not to risk it.

“Oh, it’s not for me,” I said. “It’s for my mother, Ruth.”

Giving his best scowl, he scribbled a line and stomped off.

My mother still had that autograph when she died 13 years ago. I have it now.

— Amanda Sherwin

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Dear Diary:

My husband and I were in New York to see “Good Night and Good Luck,” and I had gotten done up for the occasion: dress, hair, makeup, jewelry, a stunning but impractical white coat and an infrequently worn pair of kitten heels.

As we walked to the theater, the promise of spring was in the air, and I was feeling upbeat. I was gliding along. The next thing I knew, I was tumbling in slow motion onto the dirty pavement at Broadway and 44th Street.

My coat and my ego were a bit tarnished as my husband rushed to help me up. To my surprise, two young men also stopped to help.

As I turned to thank them, one of them smiled.

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“Hon,” he said, “it was totally worth it! Those shoes are fabulous.”

— Suzanne Schneck

Read all recent entries and our submissions guidelines. Reach us via email diary@nytimes.com or follow @NYTMetro on Twitter.

Illustrations by Agnes Lee

Do you have a tale of a memorable experience that involved a New York City restaurant? Please submit it below or share it in the comments. While you’re there, join the conversation.

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