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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA

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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA


New York City and Chicago Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Along with Inland California; South Still Faces Relatively Small Exposure;

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.

The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, IL, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.

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At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.

The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.

An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

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Significant differences in risk continue around the U.S. at a time when market forces could combine to push home values up even further or tamp them down.

Vulnerable housing markets clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan) and three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey).

Another 13 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment continue in most-at-risk markets
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the third quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.

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The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (108 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.2 percent); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.3 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (65.9 percent) and New York County (Manhattan), NY (65.1 percent).

At least 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (15 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (12.4 percent); Philadelphia County, PA (11.9 percent) and Marion County, FL (outside Gainesville) (11 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the third quarter of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Osceola County, FL (outside Orlando) (one in 473); Dorchester County, SC (outside Charleston) (one in 509); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 571) and Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 574).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Merced County, CA (9.1 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (8.7 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (8.2 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (7.7 percent) and Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.4 percent).

South has largest portion of counties least at risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.

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Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in the third quarter: They included Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), Bradley County (outside Chattanooga), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Wisconsin had seven. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Less-vulnerable counties aided by better market conditions
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 17 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 30 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Potter County (Amarillo), TX (19.1 percent); Oswego County, NY (outside Syracuse) (21.8 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (25.9 percent); Shawnee County (Topeka), KS (26.5 percent) and Madison County (Huntsville), AL (26.9 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only one of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.8 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Rockingham County (Portsmouth), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County (Richmond), VA (2 percent) and Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent).

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More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Yellowstone County (Billings), MT (one in 72,252 residential properties faced possible foreclosure); Missoula County, MT (one in 55,084); Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 25,646); Medina County, OH (outside Akron) (one in 18,785) and Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level of 4.2 percent in 48 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); La Crosse County, WI (2.2 percent); Outagamie County, WI (2.3 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.3 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s third-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus August 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the third-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with August 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloudbulk file licensesproperty data APIsreal estate market trendsproperty navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com

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Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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Chemistry Class | DEVILS NOW | New Jersey Devils

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Chemistry Class | DEVILS NOW | New Jersey Devils


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The first of Paramus’ three big mall makeovers is nearly complete

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The first of Paramus’ three big mall makeovers is nearly complete


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One of three massive redevelopment projects at Paramus’ biggest shopping malls will finish construction this summer. Another will have to wait until 2027.

The two projects will bring hundreds of apartments and thousands of feet of additional retail space to Bergen Town Center and Paramus Park Mall, two of Bergen County’s biggest retail destinations. Both projects are the work of Carlstadt-based Russo Development LLC, which is also building a new headquarters in the borough.

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The biggest mall redevelopment in town — a multiyear plan that could bring as many as 1,400 homes to Westfield Garden State Plaza — is also underway under the direction of a different developer. That project is expected to hold an official groundbreaking in the coming weeks.

The construction is “an opportunity for affordable housing to get built, which is certainly a big priority for almost every municipality in New Jersey right now,” Russo Development CEO Ed Russo said in a recent interview. He credited borough officials for making sure “there was additional investment and vibrance that was being added” to Paramus’ commercial center.

Paramus Park housing almost done

First in line for completion is Vermella Paramus, two mixed-use buildings with 360 one-, two- and three- bedroom apartments under construction next to the Paramus Park Mall, west of the Garden State Parkway.

The project will also have 8,000 square feet of onsite retail space. It will be built adjacent to the mall and the new Valley Hospital, according to a description on the company’s website.

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One of the buildings will be finished next month, while the second is scheduled to finish construction in June, Russo said last week.

Bergen Town Center project has new name, timeline

The developer, alongside KRE Group, also plans to build two five-story buildings with 426 units and 5,000 square feet of retail at Bergen Town Center, off of Route 4. The project will be called Bergen Chapters, Russo said.

The housing will include 147 one-bedroom apartments to be sold at market rate and another 12 reserved as affordable. The project will also have 1,572 parking spaces, including lots from other areas of the mall property and two parking garages.

A building on the east side of the Bergen Town Center property that currently contains a former Kirkland’s, Red Robin and Recreational Equipment Inc will be knocked down for the project. Recreational Equipment Inc. closed in late January, so the property has only become vacant in the last month, said Russo. He expects the work to finish in late 2027.

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Story continues after gallery.

Living at the mall

Paramus’ three big projects fueled speculation that other shopping centers in North Jersey would follow the example, as mall owners looked for ways to survive the rise of online retail.

But there hasn’t been a tremendous amount of mall redevelopment in New Jersey, Russo said.

Paramus’ situation is unique, he noted, with “three good size malls” all within the same town. Spurred in part by state affordable housing mandates, the borough council adopted zoning in 2016 that allowed for mixed-use development along its highway corridor. That was the impetus for the three mall makeovers, Russo said.

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Other factors also made the borough’s commercial corridor especially suited for this type of hybrid development, he added.

“Paramus has always been considered, for many decades, as a shopping mecca between the malls, Route 17, Route 4 and the proximity to New York City,” said Russo. “It’s really been a vibrant retail community for many years.”

In addition to fulfilling affordable housing obligations, the zoning helped the borough attract new investment around the malls, boosting their long-term success, he added.

“The retail market has been affected in a larger part of New Jersey over the last number of years,” said Russo. “I think Paramus was very forward-thinking in the zoning that they did years ago.”

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New Jersey to Use AI to Score Standardized Writing Tests

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New Jersey to Use AI to Score Standardized Writing Tests


(TNS) — Artificial intelligence will be used to score most of the writing New Jersey students do on the new statewide standardized tests set to debut this spring, state education officials said.

The AI system will be used to grade student essays and short answers on the English Language Arts section of the statewide exams, according to a state-approved testing proposal. The “artificial intelligence” will be trained using scores generated by human scorers on practice tests that were given to students in October and November.

New Jersey is debuting a new type of state tests — called the New Jersey Student Learning Assessments-Adaptive — this spring. It will be given to students in grades 3 through 10 to test their knowledge of English, math and science.


There will also be a new version of the state’s high school exit exam for high school juniors, now called the New Jersey Graduation Proficiency Assessment-Adaptive.

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Like the previous version of the test, known as the NJSLA, the exams will be given via computer. But the new version will be “adaptive,” meaning students will get different questions based on their previous answers on the exam — a practice that is supposed to make scoring the tests more precise.

The AI system will be used to score the essays and written questions, but there will still be some human scorers, state Department of Education Spokesperson Michael Yaple said.

If a student’s written response is identified as “unusual” or “borderline” it will be “flagged for human review,” Yaple said.

“The system regularly conducts quality assurance checks to ensure that the scores assigned by the automated scoring engine match human scores through strict quality controls,” he added.

Cambium, the company overseeing the new tests, does not use generative AI — the version of artificial intelligence used in ChatGPT-type platforms that can create something new and are known to sometimes hallucinate false or inaccurate information, Yaple said.

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Instead, the automated scoring system will have strict parameters “with proven consistency, and human scoring remains the foundation of the process, validating accuracy at multiple checkpoints throughout the scoring workflow,” state education officials said in a statement.

Computerized scoring of New Jersey’s state tests is nothing new. Last year, about 90 percent of student essays on the NJSLA and the state high school exit exams were scored solely by an automated scoring system, Yaple said.

But some educators have concerns about the extensive use of AI to grade the new version of the tests that will eventually be taken by nearly all of New Jersey’s 1.3 million public school students.

Using a version of AI to score student writing is risky, said Steve Beatty, president of the New Jersey Education Association, the state’s largest teachers union.

He said he would hate to see “some student fail on a computer-graded test only to find out later on that there was some sort of error.”

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The NJEA is against high stakes testing in general, Beatty said. But if the tests are going to continue “then we want trained educators — humans — doing” the scoring.

If a student fails the AI-scored sections of the exams, there should be a plan to have the writing reassessed by a human, he said.

“They should go back to a person to be verified,” Beatty said.

NEW TESTING CONTRACT

New Jersey students will begin taking the new NJSLA-Adaptive exams during a month-long testing window between April 27 and May 29. The tests are usually given over several consecutive days.

The testing window for the new NJGPA-Adaptive high school exit exam for high school juniors will be from March 16 to April 1, according to a state Department of Education testing schedule.

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The new statewide NJSLA and NJGPA tests were developed by Cambium Assessment, a company that won a $58.7 million, two-year contract with the state.

According to the Cambium proposal, Measurement Incorporated, a company located in Durham, North Carolina, will be responsible for providing and training the people who will do the human “handscoring” when AI-generated essay and written response scores are flagged for review.

In its proposal to the state, Cambium said the company assumes “25 percent of the overall responses will be routed for trained handscoring.”

New Jersey officials said AI was not used to create test items on the new version of the tests and artificial intelligence will not be used to determine which questions students see on the adaptive assessments.

Jeffrey Hauger, who served as director of assessments for the state Department of Education from 2010 to 2018, said New Jersey has a long history of using computers to help score the written portion of state tests. He later worked as an adviser to Pearson, the company that previously had the contract to provide the state NJSLA tests.

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Around 2016, Hauger said the state started implementing a system that used one human and one automated scorer to assess each piece of student writing.

If a large discrepancy between the two scores was found, the essay would be read by a second human, he said.

“It was a tool for efficiency, but the human was always involved throughout the process back then,” Hauger said.

AI scoring is now more sophisticated, he said.

“Technology has improved. And so, it’s not as big of a leap now as maybe people think it is,” Hauger said.

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During Gov. Phil Murphy’s time in office, the department started relying more on automated scoring and moving away from having each piece of writing evaluated by both a machine and a human, he said.

FLAGGING PROBLEMS

AI scoring has been controversial in other states.

In Massachusetts, AI grading errors were blamed for 1,400 incorrect scores on the state’s Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System, known as the MCAS, last year.

In Texas, several districts questioned whether AI grading was fair on its statewide tests in recent years.

The Dallas Independent School District has challenged thousands of AI generated essay scores on Texas’ statewide STAAR standardized tests over the past two years.

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Cambium and Pearson, the companies involved in New Jersey’s testing, both contributed to Texas’ standardized testing system.

In 2024, the Dallas school district asked the state to rescore 4,600 tests, sending them to the state to be rescored by humans.

About 44 percent of the rescored tests came back with higher scores after a human read them, said Jacob Cortez, Dallas’ assistant superintendent in charge of evaluation and assessment.

The district also sent thousands of AI-scored tests for rescoring last year and nearly 40 percent came back with higher scores from humans, the district said.

The accuracy rate for the AI-scored third grade tests was the most troubling, with 85 percent of those sent back showing an improved score when humans read the students’ work.

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“That is not okay,” Cortez said.

The Dallas school district, which serves about 139,000 students, limited the number of tests it sent back for rescoring because it had to pay $50 for each test that did not receive an improved score, local officials said.

Cambium officials did not respond to requests for comment about the Dallas accuracy issues or the company’s AI scoring practices.

New Jersey officials declined to comment on questions about AI scoring accuracy in other states.

“New Jersey cannot comment on another state’s assessment and scoring process,” Yaple said.

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Lily Laux, New Jersey’s new commissioner of education, also did not respond to a request to comment. In her previous job as Texas’ deputy commissioner of school programs, she helped design the state’s standardized testing system, according to her LinkedIn profile.

The problems with AI scoring in Dallas raise questions about the system, said Scott Marion, principal learning associate at the Center for Assessment, a nonprofit, nonpartisan consulting firm.

“Is it not being trained well? Is it not being trained on a diverse enough population?” Marion asked.

AI scoring makes financial sense but states also need to be careful not to overly rely on it, he said. He’s comfortable with about 80 percent AI-scored writing because systems still need human backups.

“We’ve been doing this for so long,” he said referring to the use of AI to score student writing.

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Many students, teachers and parents may be surprised to know how much of writing in school is already scored by AI, education advocates said.

Many “parents have no idea this is a thing,” said Julie Borst, executive director of community organizing for Save Our Schools New Jersey, a statewide advocacy group.

She is concerned that students with unique writing styles might end up with lower scores on tests because AI is looking for specific words and phrases or a standard number of sentences for top scores.

Borst, whose organization has long-opposed high stakes standardized testing, said in the end, it will still be up to teachers to know where students are doing well and where they are struggling.

“The teacher is going to know where those weaknesses are. They’re going to know where those strengths lie,” she said. “You cannot tell that — at the student level — from a standardized test.”

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©2026 Advance Local Media LLC. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.





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