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As Trump forces NATO to pay up, alliance races to close military gap with US
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This is part one of a series examining the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.
NATO has become a “bloated architecture” too dependent on American military power, former senior national security advisor Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital.
As President Donald Trump pressures NATO allies to spend more on defense — ordering the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany and signaling possible cuts in Spain and Italy — a deeper concern is emerging inside the alliance: despite years of rising European defense budgets, NATO still depends heavily on American military power, from missile defense and intelligence to logistics and nuclear deterrence.
The growing gap between political commitments and real military capability is now fueling calls for structural changes inside the alliance as NATO confronts mounting threats from Russia and instability in the Middle East.
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NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, “I told the president… maybe you ought to talk about a tiered relationship with NATO,” Kellogg described conversations with Trump in his first term about the alliance’s future. “…we need to develop a new, for lack of a better term, a new NATO a new defensive alignment with Europe.”
Kellogg added the alliance has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what he sees as a growing gap between commitments and real capability.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, President Donald Trump and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer pose during the NATO Heads of State and Government summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall/Pool/Reuters)
“You started with 12, and you went to 32, and in the process, I think you diluted the impact,” he argued, calling today’s NATO “a very bloated architecture.”
“They haven’t put the money into defense. Their defense industry and defense forces have atrophied. When you look at the Brits right now, they could barely deploy forces: they have two aircraft carriers, both under maintenance. Their brigades are like one out of six that work. And you just look at the capability, it’s just not there. So I think we need to realize that and say, well, we need something different,” Kellogg, who is the co-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.
But not everyone agrees the alliance is losing relevance.
“It has never been more relevant,” said John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains central to U.S. national security.
“The reason for that is twofold,” he said. “One, it’s our comparative advantage versus the Chinese and the Russians… they don’t have anything like this.”
“And the second reason… NATO underwrites the security and stability of our most important trade and investment relationship,” he added, referring to economic ties between North America and Europe.
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NATO chiefs of defense hold a meeting in Brussels on Aug. 20, 2025, with screens displaying allied leaders joining remotely to discuss Ukraine. (Fox News)
Dependence: Design or Weakness?
By around 2010, the United States accounted for roughly 65% to 70% of NATO defense spending, according to analysis provided by Barak Seener from the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
“They’ve always been dependent on the U.S.,” Kellogg said of the European allies.
“The allies overall rely upon one another for deterrence and defense by design,” Deni said, explaining that alliances exist to “pool their resources” and “aggregate their individual strengths.”
Deni pointed to ground forces as a clear example of what the U.S. gains from the alliance, noting that “there are far more allied mechanized infantry forces on the ground than there are Americans.”
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Still, he acknowledged that reliance has at times gone too far.
“In the past… it was fair to say that the European allies were overly reliant upon the Americans for conventional defense,” he said, pointing to the 2000s.
That, he said, was partly driven by U.S. priorities — as Washington pushed European allies to focus on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq rather than territorial defense.
A Polish Army soldier sits in a tank as a NATO flag flies behind during the NATO Noble Jump VJTF exercises on June 18, 2015, in Zagan, Poland. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Seener describes NATO as “formally collective, but functionally asymmetric,” with the U.S. providing a disproportionate share of “high-end capabilities.”
That asymmetry is most visible in nuclear deterrence.
Seener said the U.S. provides the overwhelming majority of NATO’s nuclear arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategic bombers — meaning deterrence ultimately relies on the assumption of U.S. retaliation.
A NATO official told Fox News Digital that, “The U.S. nuclear deterrent cannot be replaced, but it is clear that Europe needs to step up. There’s no question. There needs to be a better balance when it comes to our defense and security. Both because we see the vital role the U.S. plays around the world and the resources that it demands, and also because it is only fair.”
“The good news,” the official added, “is that the Allies are doing exactly that. They are stepping up, working together — and with the U.S. — to ensure we collectively have what we need to deter and defend one billion people living across the Euro-Atlantic area.”
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Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters of the U.S. Army 12th Combat Aviation Brigade fly over a Lithuanian Vilkas infantry fighting vehicle during the Allied Spirit 25 military exercise near Hohenfels, Germany, on March 12, 2025.
The Systems NATO Cannot Replace
Beyond nuclear weapons, the dependence runs through the alliance’s operational backbone.
Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — as well as logistics and command systems — as essential to NATO operations.
“Without U.S. intelligence and surveillance, NATO loses situational awareness and early warning capabilities,” Seener said, adding, “So that means that Russia, for example, can attack Europe. And theoretically, if there’s no NATO and the U.S. is not involved, Europe would not be aware, or it would take it too long to be able to defend itself.”
Kellogg also says that much of Europe’s military capability falls short of top-tier systems.
“For the most part, their equipment, if you had to grade it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re kind of like B players or C players,” he said. “It’s not the first line of work.”
He pointed to air and missile defense as a key gap, noting that while European countries rely on U.S.-made systems such as Patriot and THAAD, “they don’t have a system that’s comparable.”
Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defense industries “have atrophied,” adding that the United States is also now “relearning that as well.”
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President Donald Trump and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda talk during a working lunch at the NATO leaders summit in Watford, Britain, on Dec. 4, 2019. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
Deni said the picture today is more mixed.
“Alliance defense spending has been up… and has spiked far more after 2022,” he said, pointing to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as a turning point.
But he cautioned that capability gains take time, noting that many improvements are still years away from full deployment.
Deni pointed to recent European purchases of U.S. systems as evidence of growing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring the F-35 fighter jet from the U.S.
“You can’t build an F-35 overnight,” he said, adding that many of these improvements will take years to fully materialize.
A NATO official told Fox News Digital the alliance “needs to move further and faster” to meet growing threats, pointing to new capability targets agreed by defense ministers in June 2025.
Keith Kellogg speaks during the Warsaw Security Forum on Sept. 30, 2025, in Poland. (Marek Antoni Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The official said priorities include air and missile defense, long-range weapons, logistics and large land forces, noting that while details remain classified, plans call for a fivefold increase in air and missile defense, “thousands more” armored vehicles and tanks, and “millions more” artillery shells. NATO also aims to double key enabling capabilities such as logistics, transportation and medical support.
The official added that allies are increasing investments in warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, as well as space and cyber capabilities, while boosting readiness and modernizing command and control.
“These targets are now included in national plans,” the official said, adding that allies must demonstrate how they will meet them through sustained defense spending and capability development.
The NATO official also noted that European allies lead multinational forces across Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. and Canada serve as framework nations in Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing air policing missions and NATO’s KFOR operation in Kosovo.
A Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft takes off from southern Sweden on April 2, 2011. (AP Photo/Scanpix/Patric Soderstrom, File)
What happens if the U.S. is stretched?
Kellogg’s warning is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends on U.S. presence.
“The one you always have to worry about… is Russia,” Kellogg, who was Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia in 2025, said.
If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could face serious strain — particularly in areas like intelligence and logistics.
For Kellogg, the danger is delay. “We won’t know until it happens,” he said. “And then you won’t be able to respond to it.”
Deni, however, said the alliance remains a strategic asset — not a liability.
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A NATO military force stands guard outside the World Forum in The Hague ahead of the two-day NATO summit on June 22, 2025. (Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP)
The question, he suggests, is not whether NATO still works. It is whether allies can adapt fast enough to keep it working.
Published on •Updated
Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama reposted an AI video of himself wearing a leather mini skirt and bra on his Instagram profile in an apparent swipe against influencers.
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“Whoever made this, well done,” he wrote in the post accompanying the video.
The video refers to remarks Rama made during a public event on 7 June, where he mocked bloggers and influencers who supported ongoing protests against a controversial luxury development linked to Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kusher, part of which is due to be built in a conservation area.
In that speech, Rama argued that many influencers make money by promoting themselves on social media while paying no taxes to the state.
Rama said that “bloggers should challenge each other, one dressed as a flamingo and another dressed as me and see who wins.”
Protesters have carried cardboard cut-outs of pink flamingos, one of the protected migratory bird species, at rallies in the capital Tirana.
Earlier, Rama claimed that influencers joined the protests mainly for attention and lacked a real understanding of the situation.
The government says the development on the Adriatic coast would be transformational for the former communist nation as it seeks to enter the high-end tourism market and pushes for European Union membership.
But the venture, spanning a protected island and a nearby stretch of seafront on Albania’s southern coast, has drawn opposition from environmental campaigners and critics of long-time Socialist Prime Minister Edi Rama.
The luxury project has two components: a coastal development in the Narta Lagoon area, which is a wildlife reserve, and a smaller resort on the nearby uninhabited island of Sazan, a communist-era military base.
The planned development of hotels, apartments, villas and a marina is linked to Kushner and Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump.
An investment firm linked to Kushner has been granted special investor status by Albanian authorities.
Albania has 450 kilometres of coast that remained largely underdeveloped during decades of communist rule.
Protest groups fear the sections of that pristine coastline could be snapped up by powerful investors. And public anger grew after video showed an activist being dragged by a private security guard while demonstrating at the site.
The development is planned within a nature reserve and one of Albania’s most valuable biodiversity areas, a key stopover for migratory birds along the Adriatic coast.
Since late May, excavators and other heavy machinery have entered the area, opening access routes, digging into the sand, clearing land among pine trees and installing fencing.
Environmental groups from Albania and elsewhere in Europe condemned the work, with one prominent local group charging that long-protected habitats are being “irreversibly destroyed.”
Additional sources • AP
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EXCLUSIVE: Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said Ukraine has gained new leverage against Russia, arguing that Moscow’s renewed talk of negotiations comes as Kyiv has strengthened itself militarily, politically and diplomatically.
Valtonen’s comments carry particular weight because Finland is one of NATO’s newest members and now sits on the alliance’s longest border with Russia. Finland joined NATO in April 2023 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ending decades of military nonalignment and transforming the country into a frontline state in Europe’s security posture.
“Ukraine certainly is now holding the cards,” Valtonen told Fox News Digital Monday in an interview at the United Nations headquarters in New York. “They have strengthened themselves immensely over the course of the past three, four months, both militarily and politically, diplomatically. And I think this opens a great window of opportunity for actually advancing the peace talks.”
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Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen at the United Nations headquarters in New York, June 8, 2026. (Efrat Lachter/ Fox News Digital)
Her assessment comes as Reuters reported that Ukraine’s top military commander said Ukrainian forces had recaptured more than 600 square kilometers, or roughly 230 square miles, of territory so far in 2026, a shift after years of slow Russian gains. It also follows renewed diplomatic activity, including Zelenskyy’s stated willingness to halt fighting along current lines as a path to talks and Putin’s public rejection of a direct meeting for now.
Finland shares a roughly 820-mile border with Russia, making it one of the alliance’s most strategically exposed members.
Valtonen said Moscow has shown little willingness to make concessions and argued that the responsibility for ending the war remains with the Kremlin.
“So far, Russia hasn’t been willing to make any concessions, and essentially Russia could end the war today if they wanted to, because it was their war in the first place,” she said. “So I’m hopeful that this could be the right time to relaunch those talks.”
Peace efforts remain stalled over the same core divide that has shaped the war for years: Ukraine has called for a ceasefire and negotiations without surrendering territory, while Russia has continued to demand control over occupied Ukrainian regions. Putin said in early June there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy for now and repeated Moscow’s broader war aims.
Asked about U.S.-led efforts to negotiate an end to the war, Valtonen praised Washington’s role but stressed that Ukraine alone must decide whether to accept any concessions, including on territory.
“I think the U.S. involvement in this entire process has been a very good one, and it’s important that the U.S. stays engaged, because at the end of the day, it’s about freedom, it’s the future of not only Europe, but also of global peace,” she said.
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte prepare to depart after a group photo at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 18, 2025. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Valtonen said Europe also needs to be part of the process because Russia’s war directly affects the continent’s security architecture.
She said any serious negotiations would require Russia to accept a full ceasefire.
“First and foremost, we would need Russia at the table willing to end the war,” Valtonen said. “And that would need to happen through a full ceasefire, because only that would open the possibility for true negotiations.”
Valtonen also credited President Donald Trump with pushing European allies to increase defense spending, saying the pressure had moved the continent in the right direction after years of imbalance inside NATO.
Finland has moved aggressively to increase defense spending. Helsinki plans to raise defense spending to 3.2% of GDP by 2030, up from 2.5% in 2025, Reuters reported in April.
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Senior border guard officer Juho Pellinen looks at a fence marking the boundary between Finland and Russia near the Pelkola border crossing in Imatra, Finland, on Nov. 18, 2022. (Alessandro Rampazzo/AFP)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also praised Finland and Sweden Tuesday during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, saying the two newest NATO members had strengthened the alliance by bringing “their own defense industry” and “advanced technologies.”
He called them “a great partner” and “an extraordinary partner.”
Valtonen said Finland’s approach is shaped by its own history with Moscow.
“Finland obviously has taken the Russian threat extremely seriously because we have the longest border with them,” she said. “We certainly worship our status as the happiest country in the world, i.e. democracy, the rule of law and human rights, which we hold dear as values over anything that Russia could offer.”
She also pointed to Finland’s experience in World War II, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland, as a reminder of why deterrence matters.
“The last time the Soviet Union, i.e. Russia, tried to invade us was during the Second World War,” Valtonen said. “Happily, we were able to fend them off, but of course at the massive cost to the society.”
“For us, it has been clear that if we invest in our deterrence, then that’s a signal to Russia — do not come here,” she added.
On Iran, Valtonen said Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s March comments, reported by The Guardian, that the conflict was not a NATO matter should not be understood as Europe washing its hands of the crisis.
“I don’t think our president meant that this has nothing to do with European countries or NATO allies,” Valtonen said. “I think what he probably meant more is that NATO obviously is not directly involved as an organization, which is true.”
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Swedish soldiers participate in the military exercise Aurora 23 at Berga naval base outside Stockholm on April 28, 2023. A Swedish parliamentary committee recommended on April 26, 2024, that Sweden increase its military budget by nearly $5 billion through 2030 to strengthen air defense and expand conscription after joining NATO. (Anders Wiklund/TT News Agency)
Her comments came after another weekend escalation in the Iran war, with Tehran launching missiles at Israel and Israel striking military targets in western and central Iran overnight. The flare-up unfolded as the U.S. and its allies continue efforts to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state and keep pressure on Tehran over threats to Israel and regional shipping.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy choke point, has become a central focus for Western governments after Iranian threats and restrictions on maritime traffic. Reuters reported Monday that the European Union sanctioned Iranian-linked individuals and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy unit over threats to shipping in the strait.
“We as individual member states in Europe have definitely been helping the U.S. effort,” Valtonen said. “We don’t want to see Iran as a nuclear state. We know what kind of a threat Iran has projected towards the region, especially toward Israel.”
Valtonen added Finland has also joined efforts led by France and the United Kingdom to keep the Strait of Hormuz open once conditions allow for safe operations in the area.
“It’s so important that such straits are not weaponized by any country around the world,” Valtonen said.
Asked whether European countries had refused U.S. requests to use bases during the Iran crisis, Valtonen said Finland has no U.S. bases to shut down but argued that most European allies have supported Washington’s requests.
“Finland has been helping the U.S. through so many ways,” she said. “We don’t have any U.S. bases in Finland, so there’s nothing we can shut down.”
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Commander of the Finnish Army Lieutenant General Pasi Valimaki addresses Finnish conscript soldiers after a military exercise at Pori Brigade in Niinisalo, Finland, Dec. 9, 2025. (Anne Kauranen/Reuters)
“But having said this, the vast majority of European countries have said yes to everything that the U.S. has asked during the past couple of months when this war effort has been ongoing, independent of the fact that, of course, we are not directly involved as countries in the war,” she added.
Valtonen said that support demonstrated NATO allies’ willingness to help Washington even when the alliance itself is not formally involved.
“I think that really shows the engagement by NATO allies in this and our willingness to help when the U.S. really needs some assistance,” she said.
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