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As Trump forces NATO to pay up, alliance races to close military gap with US
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This is part one of a series examining the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.
NATO has become a “bloated architecture” too dependent on American military power, former senior national security advisor Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital.
As President Donald Trump pressures NATO allies to spend more on defense — ordering the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany and signaling possible cuts in Spain and Italy — a deeper concern is emerging inside the alliance: despite years of rising European defense budgets, NATO still depends heavily on American military power, from missile defense and intelligence to logistics and nuclear deterrence.
The growing gap between political commitments and real military capability is now fueling calls for structural changes inside the alliance as NATO confronts mounting threats from Russia and instability in the Middle East.
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NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, “I told the president… maybe you ought to talk about a tiered relationship with NATO,” Kellogg described conversations with Trump in his first term about the alliance’s future. “…we need to develop a new, for lack of a better term, a new NATO a new defensive alignment with Europe.”
Kellogg added the alliance has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what he sees as a growing gap between commitments and real capability.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, President Donald Trump and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer pose during the NATO Heads of State and Government summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall/Pool/Reuters)
“You started with 12, and you went to 32, and in the process, I think you diluted the impact,” he argued, calling today’s NATO “a very bloated architecture.”
“They haven’t put the money into defense. Their defense industry and defense forces have atrophied. When you look at the Brits right now, they could barely deploy forces: they have two aircraft carriers, both under maintenance. Their brigades are like one out of six that work. And you just look at the capability, it’s just not there. So I think we need to realize that and say, well, we need something different,” Kellogg, who is the co-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.
But not everyone agrees the alliance is losing relevance.
“It has never been more relevant,” said John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains central to U.S. national security.
“The reason for that is twofold,” he said. “One, it’s our comparative advantage versus the Chinese and the Russians… they don’t have anything like this.”
“And the second reason… NATO underwrites the security and stability of our most important trade and investment relationship,” he added, referring to economic ties between North America and Europe.
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NATO chiefs of defense hold a meeting in Brussels on Aug. 20, 2025, with screens displaying allied leaders joining remotely to discuss Ukraine. (Fox News)
Dependence: Design or Weakness?
By around 2010, the United States accounted for roughly 65% to 70% of NATO defense spending, according to analysis provided by Barak Seener from the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
“They’ve always been dependent on the U.S.,” Kellogg said of the European allies.
“The allies overall rely upon one another for deterrence and defense by design,” Deni said, explaining that alliances exist to “pool their resources” and “aggregate their individual strengths.”
Deni pointed to ground forces as a clear example of what the U.S. gains from the alliance, noting that “there are far more allied mechanized infantry forces on the ground than there are Americans.”
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Still, he acknowledged that reliance has at times gone too far.
“In the past… it was fair to say that the European allies were overly reliant upon the Americans for conventional defense,” he said, pointing to the 2000s.
That, he said, was partly driven by U.S. priorities — as Washington pushed European allies to focus on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq rather than territorial defense.
A Polish Army soldier sits in a tank as a NATO flag flies behind during the NATO Noble Jump VJTF exercises on June 18, 2015, in Zagan, Poland. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Seener describes NATO as “formally collective, but functionally asymmetric,” with the U.S. providing a disproportionate share of “high-end capabilities.”
That asymmetry is most visible in nuclear deterrence.
Seener said the U.S. provides the overwhelming majority of NATO’s nuclear arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategic bombers — meaning deterrence ultimately relies on the assumption of U.S. retaliation.
A NATO official told Fox News Digital that, “The U.S. nuclear deterrent cannot be replaced, but it is clear that Europe needs to step up. There’s no question. There needs to be a better balance when it comes to our defense and security. Both because we see the vital role the U.S. plays around the world and the resources that it demands, and also because it is only fair.”
“The good news,” the official added, “is that the Allies are doing exactly that. They are stepping up, working together — and with the U.S. — to ensure we collectively have what we need to deter and defend one billion people living across the Euro-Atlantic area.”
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Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters of the U.S. Army 12th Combat Aviation Brigade fly over a Lithuanian Vilkas infantry fighting vehicle during the Allied Spirit 25 military exercise near Hohenfels, Germany, on March 12, 2025.
The Systems NATO Cannot Replace
Beyond nuclear weapons, the dependence runs through the alliance’s operational backbone.
Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — as well as logistics and command systems — as essential to NATO operations.
“Without U.S. intelligence and surveillance, NATO loses situational awareness and early warning capabilities,” Seener said, adding, “So that means that Russia, for example, can attack Europe. And theoretically, if there’s no NATO and the U.S. is not involved, Europe would not be aware, or it would take it too long to be able to defend itself.”
Kellogg also says that much of Europe’s military capability falls short of top-tier systems.
“For the most part, their equipment, if you had to grade it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re kind of like B players or C players,” he said. “It’s not the first line of work.”
He pointed to air and missile defense as a key gap, noting that while European countries rely on U.S.-made systems such as Patriot and THAAD, “they don’t have a system that’s comparable.”
Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defense industries “have atrophied,” adding that the United States is also now “relearning that as well.”
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President Donald Trump and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda talk during a working lunch at the NATO leaders summit in Watford, Britain, on Dec. 4, 2019. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
Deni said the picture today is more mixed.
“Alliance defense spending has been up… and has spiked far more after 2022,” he said, pointing to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as a turning point.
But he cautioned that capability gains take time, noting that many improvements are still years away from full deployment.
Deni pointed to recent European purchases of U.S. systems as evidence of growing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring the F-35 fighter jet from the U.S.
“You can’t build an F-35 overnight,” he said, adding that many of these improvements will take years to fully materialize.
A NATO official told Fox News Digital the alliance “needs to move further and faster” to meet growing threats, pointing to new capability targets agreed by defense ministers in June 2025.
Keith Kellogg speaks during the Warsaw Security Forum on Sept. 30, 2025, in Poland. (Marek Antoni Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The official said priorities include air and missile defense, long-range weapons, logistics and large land forces, noting that while details remain classified, plans call for a fivefold increase in air and missile defense, “thousands more” armored vehicles and tanks, and “millions more” artillery shells. NATO also aims to double key enabling capabilities such as logistics, transportation and medical support.
The official added that allies are increasing investments in warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, as well as space and cyber capabilities, while boosting readiness and modernizing command and control.
“These targets are now included in national plans,” the official said, adding that allies must demonstrate how they will meet them through sustained defense spending and capability development.
The NATO official also noted that European allies lead multinational forces across Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. and Canada serve as framework nations in Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing air policing missions and NATO’s KFOR operation in Kosovo.
A Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft takes off from southern Sweden on April 2, 2011. (AP Photo/Scanpix/Patric Soderstrom, File)
What happens if the U.S. is stretched?
Kellogg’s warning is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends on U.S. presence.
“The one you always have to worry about… is Russia,” Kellogg, who was Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia in 2025, said.
If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could face serious strain — particularly in areas like intelligence and logistics.
For Kellogg, the danger is delay. “We won’t know until it happens,” he said. “And then you won’t be able to respond to it.”
Deni, however, said the alliance remains a strategic asset — not a liability.
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A NATO military force stands guard outside the World Forum in The Hague ahead of the two-day NATO summit on June 22, 2025. (Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP)
The question, he suggests, is not whether NATO still works. It is whether allies can adapt fast enough to keep it working.
-U43648517271Shc-1440x752@IlSole24Ore-Web.jpg?r=1170x507&ssl=1 "War breaking news. Trump postpones decision: nothing after two hours in Situation Room")
Iran, Trump shares draft agreement with Israel and other allies
US President Donald Trump has circulated the draft peace agreement for the war with Iran among allies, including Israel, while attempts are underway to prevent new ceasefire violations from escalating and derailing any agreement. Meanwhile, in an effort to accelerate negotiations, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, will be in Washington today to meet with his US counterpart, Marco Rubio.
Yesterday, Tehran targeted a US air base in Kuwait after Washington struck what it called an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the fragility of the situation as both negotiating parties refuse to give in on the final points of disagreement. On Wednesday, Trump’s cabinet was scheduled to discuss the deal, but Axios – which reported on the terms of the deal reached – reported that the US president needed a few more days to reflect on the eventual go-ahead.
Direct military negotiations between Israel and Lebanon start today at the Pentagon
The first direct meeting between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations opens today at the Pentagon as part of the negotiations promoted by the United States after the truce that came into effect, at least on paper, in mid-April. The talks take place while Israel intensifies raids and bombardments in Lebanon, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Jewish state has issued several forced displacement orders to Israeli civilians in Nabatiye and Tyre, the two main Lebanese cities in the south of the country. Beirut’s armed forces come to the table with a position defined by President Joseph Aoun, who is considered close to the United States: a complete ceasefire, an end to Israeli operations, withdrawal from the occupied areas in the south, and increased army deployment along the border. Beirut also demands the release of Lebanese prisoners, the return of displaced persons, and international support for reconstruction. The meeting follows two previous negotiating sessions held in Washington on 14 and 15 May, which led to the extension of the ‘truce’ for 45 days. The United States, engaged in large-scale negotiations with Hezbollah supporter Iran, is aiming to strengthen direct military coordination between the two sides. In this sense, a new political round at the State Department is scheduled for 2 and 3 June. However, the most delicate knot remains on the table: Israel claims the right to conduct preventive operations against threats considered imminent, a formula contested by Beirut and at the centre of internal Lebanese tensions. At the same time, Washington continues to exert pressure on the Hezbollah disarmament dossier, while the Shiite movement reiterates its rejection of direct negotiations and continues its operations against the Israeli occupation forces in southern Lebanon. According to data gathered from Lebanese sources, more than 4,500 Israeli violations, more than 5,500 homes destroyed, and direct or indirect Israeli military control over more than 65 locations in South Lebanon have been recorded since the start of the mid-April ‘truce’.
Emir Qatar hears Trump, ‘priority to political and diplomatic solutions’
Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has asked US President Donald Trump to “prioritise political and diplomatic solutions” in the Middle East, in the context of negotiations between Washington and Tehran for a possible agreement. The request came during a phone call between the two leaders, during which international efforts to reduce tensions in the region were addressed. This was reported by the Qatari state agency Qna. Al Thani emphasised ‘the need to prioritise political and diplomatic solutions, as well as dialogue between all parties, to consolidate regional security and stability and avoid further tensions and escalation’. Washington meanwhile confirmed an agreement in principle with Iran to extend the 60-day truce and guarantee shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but the understanding remains pending Trump’s approval and has not yet been confirmed by Tehran.
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Israeli and Lebanese military delegations opened Pentagon-mediated talks Friday morning in Washington, launching a new U.S.-brokered security coordination track aimed at preventing renewed escalation along the Israel–Lebanon border and shoring up a fragile ceasefire reached in mid-April.
A State Department official told Fox News Digital that, “As we have continuously stated, the only path to lasting peace is through direct negotiations between the two sovereign governments.”
The discussions mark a shift from diplomatic negotiations into direct military coordination, with talks expected to focus on ceasefire enforcement, border stability, Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces in containing Hezbollah.
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Michael Needham, counselor for the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 14, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)
The talks come weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire first reached during the broader regional conflict tied to the U.S.–Iran war. While large-scale fighting has eased, Israeli forces continue operating inside parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah maintains drone and rocket capabilities, keeping tensions high along the border.
The ceasefire was extended on May 15 for another 45 days, creating pressure on both sides to show progress before the current arrangement expires.
But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.
“This will be the first meeting between representatives of the militaries since the start of the negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel,” Ahmed Sharawi, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told Fox News Digital.
Representing Lebanon in the talks is Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, who previously served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence. Hezbollah is the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization.
“What we should expect is talks regarding de-confliction and what the expectations are for the LAF in terms of the broader disarmament plan against Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said.
Sharawi said the chances of a broader breakthrough remain limited so long as Hezbollah remains heavily armed and politically entrenched inside Lebanon.
“The biggest obstacle here is that the Lebanese state is yet to present a feasible plan to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.
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But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse. (Ibrahim AMRO / AFP via Getty Images)
He pointed to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which placed responsibility for disarming Hezbollah on the Lebanese state.
“We are yet to see the confiscation of one single bullet from Hezbollah,” Sharawi said.
He also warned that Hezbollah’s deep support among Lebanon’s Shiite population complicates any attempt to move toward normalization with Israel.
“There’s a fear of a civil war,” he said. “That also accounts for the Lebanese state’s unwillingness to disarm Hezbollah.”
The talks opened as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel intends to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah despite the negotiations.
Sharawi argued the Trump administration nevertheless appears determined to push the process forward as part of a broader effort to weaken Iranian influence in the region.
“The reason behind these meetings is that President Trump is really trying to push for a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon,” he said. “Peace between these two countries could really undermine Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon.”
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Churches in the southern Lebanese town of Rmeish remained standing throughout the conflict, as residents say the community resisted Hezbollah attempts to launch rockets from the area. (Jusoor News)
Israeli analysts similarly described the talks less as a breakthrough and more as a strategic signal aimed at Hezbollah.
“The war between us and Hezbollah is continuing,” Yossi Kuperwasser, senior project manager at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, told Fox News Digital.
“There is no doubt the Lebanese government does not have a monopoly on the use of force in Lebanon,” he said.
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IDF troops discovered a Hezbollah weapons cache near a UNIFIL post in southern Lebanon in 2024. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)
Kuperwasser said expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough should remain low, but argued the talks themselves send an important political message.
“The purpose of these talks is first and foremost to send a message to Hezbollah and also to the Americans,” he said. “Both sides are prepared to sit together against Hezbollah and signal that they are moving, even if slowly, toward normalization between Israel and Lebanon.”
He argued Hezbollah has been weakened politically and militarily by the ongoing conflict and by growing frustration among Lebanese civilians displaced by the fighting.
“For years Hezbollah portrayed itself as the defender of Lebanon,” Kuperwasser said. “Now many Lebanese see Hezbollah as responsible for the suffering Lebanon is experiencing.”
Kuperwasser added that while Israel supports strengthening the Lebanese army, Beirut fears direct confrontation with Hezbollah could ignite another civil war.
“The Lebanese government fears military action against Hezbollah would lead to civil war,” he said. “That fear shapes everything.”
The talks also come amid mounting domestic pressure inside Israel, where critics of Netanyahu have accused the government of pursuing containment rather than decisive military victory against Hezbollah.
Speaking Friday during a visit to Israel’s northern front, Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and were operating across multiple parts of Lebanon.
“We are operating in Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, across the entire front and striking Hezbollah hard,” Netanyahu said.
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A woman holds her dog as she walks past burned cars a day after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on April 9, 2026. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leadership is attempting to balance growing American pressure with fears of internal instability and renewed sectarian conflict.
Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Lebanese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment. The Pentagon did not have anything to add when asked to comment.
The United Nations has confirmed it placed Israel on a blacklist of countries suspected of committing sexual violence against civilians, and pushed back on accusations made by Israel regarding its inclusion.
The list, part of a “conflict-related sexual violence” report released on Friday, prompted Israel’s foreign ministry to say it would sever all ties with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
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Last August, the UN cited “credible information” regarding sexual violence committed by Israeli security forces against Palestinian detainees in prisons and other detention centres, and said UN inspectors had been denied access to the facilities.
“We invited the representative of the UN to come to Israel to check those ridiculous allegations. They chose not to come,” Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon posted on X on Thursday.
“I never received an iota of information on measures taken by the government of Israel on implementation of the preventive measures,” Pramila Patten, the UN official who authored the report, told reporters on Friday at a briefing at the UN’s New York headquarters.
“I have made several requests in writing, and sometimes during meetings, for details about initial steps, including the issuance of orders of command information on access and information on accountability measures, but I did not get any response on the substantive aspect of the preventive measures,” she added.
Patten did confirm that there had been an invitation from Israel, but referred also to disagreements about the scope of the visit and related issues of access and cooperation, and said it ultimately had to be suspended due to Israel’s war on Gaza.
‘Multiple incidents’ in Gaza and occupied West Bank
This year’s report said that in 2025 “the United Nations verified multiple incidents of conflict-related sexual violence, including as a form of torture, inflicted against 14 men, seven women, nine boys and one girl from the Gaza Strip and the [occupied] West Bank.”
It said 13 of the attacks happened last year, and 18 in 2023 and 2024.
“Violations consisted of rape, including with objects, gang rape, attempted rape, physical violence to the genitals, instances of targeted shooting of the genitals, touching of breasts and genitals, strip and cavity searches conducted without apparent security justification, forced nudity and threats of rape,” it said.
“Rape and gang rape, in some cases repeated, were perpetrated against nine victims, the majority Palestinians from Gaza,” it said, adding that perpetrators included Israeli armed and security forces. The assaults occurred primarily during detention and interrogation in several sites, including military camps, at checkpoints and during Israeli military operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
It said survivors included journalists and human rights defenders and in some cases, the violations were filmed or photographed, including one case of rape.
The report added that sexual violence against female detainees included mostly threats of rape, forced nudity, unwanted touching, and humiliating or degrading strip searches without justification, while men and boys were targeted with rape, attempted rape and violence to the genitals.
This resulted in five male victims suffering severe rectal bleeding or swelling for multiple days or weeks, it added.
Russia added to list alongside Israel
The latest UN report also contains harrowing descriptions of abuses at the hands of Russia’s military after “findings of continued patterns of sexual violence documented”.
The UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine had verified 310 cases of conflict-related sexual violence perpetrated by Russian armed and security forces.
It said the cases, including rape, gang rape, genital mutilation, electric shocks and beatings to the genitals, injured 280 men, 26 women and four girls.
The report’s annex lists 77 parties deemed responsible for patterns of conflict-related sexual violence, including 62 non-state actors.
New additions include three non-state armed groups operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Nearly 10,000 cases of conflict-related sexual violence were recorded worldwide last year – more than double the previous year’s figure, the report said.
Being added to the list does not automatically carry specific punitive measures such as sanctions, although public naming and shaming can cause significant reputational damage for the states involved, and those repeatedly listed are barred from UN peacekeeping operations.
Patten said the increase in cases of conflict-related sexual violence verified by the United Nations marks a very disturbing trend that was still only the “very tip of the iceberg”.
“This number can be attributed to the fact that we are going through a time when we have a record number of extremely violent conflicts, and the fact that perpetrators are feeling emboldened by a context of impunity, where this crime is almost cost-free,” she said.
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