MANCHESTER, N.H. — Something is missing in New Hampshire. If there is real competition here, few can sense it. On this final weekend before Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary election, a time when presidential candidates should be in a frenzied push to persuade voters, the state is unusually quiet.
New Hampshire
Analysis | Haley needs a New Hampshire jolt to stop Trump. But where’s the energy?
Veterans of past New Hampshire primaries are puzzled by what they have seen this week. They are especially curious about Haley’s overall strategy here and her decision not to participate in two scheduled debates, including one on WMUR-TV, the dominant channel in the state. That choice alone upended the traditional rhythm of the final week of campaigning and potentially robbed Haley of the opportunity to reach the unaffiliated voters she needs to win.
Strategists also question whether Haley has found a message to energize those voters. At a Friday night rally, she delivered her standard stump speech with little embellishment, rather than a full-throated closing message aimed at Trump and one that describes the real stakes if the party nominates him again. On Saturday, after Trump on Friday confused her with former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, she raised a question about his mental acuity, but her attacks remain limited.
“She says in her stump speech, ‘I’m going to give you hard truths,’ and then she gives you easy truths,” said Fergus Cullen, a past chairman of the state Republican Party.
It was left to New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Haley’s most prominent supporter, to provide the spark and energy when he introduced the former United Nations ambassador and former South Carolina governor at a rally Friday night. At this point, Haley is struggling to avoid another significant drubbing after finishing third and more than 30 percentage points behind Trump in Iowa.
Kathy Sullivan, a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair, contrasted Haley’s campaign efforts ahead of this weekend with those of Hillary Clinton in 2008. Clinton had run third to Barack Obama in Iowa and the then-Illinois senator appeared headed toward a second win in New Hampshire. Clinton threw herself into the campaign here and shocked Obama on primary day with a victory.
“She worked her butt off,” Sullivan said of Clinton. “She didn’t stop. Town halls all over the state. Doing the debates. That’s how she came back and won.” Sullivan said in a Friday interview that she felt that Haley had been “dialing it in.”
Haley’s pace picked up starting Friday, but whether she can narrow what has been a double-digit gap with Trump is questionable, especially without having done the WMUR-ABC News debate. Those debates often have been defining moments in primaries here. Ronald Reagan, after losing Iowa in 1980, used two debates to mount a successful comeback. Clinton gained in 2008 when Obama offered a tepid “you’re likable enough” comment after one of the moderators had asked her why voters did not seem to like her.
After Iowa, Haley and DeSantis appeared in televised town halls here hosted by CNN, but those are not the same as participating in a debate on the channel that more New Hampshire voters watch than any other.
“WMUR is like apple pie,” said Neil Levesque, the director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. “It’s not just a news station. The people on it are like our neighbors… I’m sure it was annoying [for Haley] to have to debate DeSantis again. For the rest of us, it’s 90 minutes of time where she was going to be in our living rooms.”
Beyond questions about Haley’s campaign, both Republicans and Democrats who have been involved in campaigns here lament that something more intangible has been lost. New Hampshire’s primary, they say, has fallen, victim to the lack of real competition in the Republican nomination battle, the absence of President Biden on the Democratic ballot, changes in campaign styles and practices, the dominance of super PACs and the nationalization of presidential politics.
“I’m not nostalgic about the past,” Cullen said. “[But] it’s a fact. There’s been fewer candidates, fewer events, less substance, less opportunity for engagement between average citizens and candidates. This campaign has really taken place on cable TV…. New Hampshire is the backdrop and voters are extras on a set.”
“It’s radically different,” said Mike Vlacich, who was Hillary Clinton’s state director here in 2016. “I hate to oversimplify, but we have two presumptive nominees already. Most people have already assumed this is kind of a race for second. Everything falls from there.”
New Hampshire, like Iowa, long has had its detractors, who see the mostly-White Granite State as unrepresentative of an increasingly diverse America and who believe that political leaders and ordinary citizens alike have an undeserved sense of privilege about its status as host of the first presidential primary.
In this campaign cycle, Democrats moved against the state. Biden, who finished fifth here four years ago, pushed the Democratic National Committee to redraw the nominating calendar, eliminating Iowa as one of the early contests, elevating South Carolina’s primary to first on the schedule and trying to force New Hampshire to hold its primary on the same day as Nevada.
Yet New Hampshire’s state law requires its primary to be ahead of all other similar events, and so Tuesday will see both a Republican and a Democratic contest. Deferring to the DNC rules, Biden did not file for the primary ballot, but his allies have organized a write-in effort to prevent him from being embarrassed by long shot challengers Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.) or Marianne Williamson, both of whom registered to appear on the ballot.
For all the criticism of the state by outsiders, New Hampshire’s citizens have been among the most politically engaged in the country over the long history of the primary. Secretary of State David Scanlan predicted Friday that Tuesday’s election will see record turnout in the Republican primary, saying he expects 322,000 people to cast ballots. In 2016, the last contested Republican primary, 287,000 people turned out to vote.
Still, this final weekend lacks the intensity of cycles past. Mike Dennehy, a veteran Republican strategist, said he sees the emergence of super PACs as one cause of the sense of diminished activity. “Super PACs are running campaigns now, not people,” he said.
All the candidates depend on these super PACs, which can take in millions of dollars in ways a candidate’s official campaign cannot, due to federal election laws. That gives them undue influence, but at a cost.
Jim Merrill, who has been involved in multiple Republican presidential campaigns here, said something is lost. “It’s more difficult for the campaigns to connect [with voters], harder for them to set deeper roots,” he said. “You lose a sense of control and with that a loss of touch and feel. The PACs become the tail wagging the dog.”
Trump, who won the primary here in 2016 after losing Iowa, has his committed supporters but has never run a typical New Hampshire campaign. “Donald Trump in 2016 won without doing town halls, taking questions from voters, without even shaking hands with more than 100 people,” Merrill said. “People say maybe all that retail stuff is overrated… It’s hard to argue otherwise. Haley to her credit has made herself available.”
Haley has the help of Sununu, part of a dynastic Republican family in the state, and therefore connections that DeSantis, who is barely competing here, does not have. How much he can do for her in these last hours is the question.
New Hampshire has seen candidates surge in the final 72 hours. Clinton did that in 2008. Gary Hart did it in 1984 when he shocked Walter F. Mondale in the primary. In 2000, John McCain used a laserlike focus on New Hampshire and its independent-minded voters to upset heavily favored George W. Bush.
Haley will need to replicate some of that magic by Tuesday if she hopes to show momentum heading to her home state of South Carolina. At the start of the weekend, that has yet to happen.
The federal government has activated the New Hampshire National Guard’s 157th Air Refueling Wing in connection with the war with Iran.
“I’ve had a briefing myself, a classified briefing, but it’s really important on the messaging on this that we really coordinate with the Pentagon,” Gov. Kelly Ayotte told reporters during a press briefing following Wednesday’s Executive Council meeting.
Ayotte said she was unable to share additional details about the nature of the New Hampshire National Guard’s activity related to the conflict, including how many guard members have been activated or what role they are playing.
“We’re going to respect what messaging comes out of the Pentagon just to make sure that our men and women in uniform are fully protected and that we aren’t providing any information that could be used in a way that would be harmful to them,” Ayotte said.
In a statement Thursday, Ayotte said the unit had been deployed in late February to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in support of the operation.
Earlier this week, Pentagon officials confirmed that members of the Vermont National Guard were involved in attacks against Iran over the weekend, though our news partners at Vermont Public were not able to confirm additional details on the nature of the operation.
During the briefing with local reporters, Ayotte also stressed her support for servicemembers and those close to them.
“I have such respect for our men and women in uniform,” Ayotte said. “As you know, I come from a military family, and they have our full support, and we appreciate them and their families, and obviously anyone who is serving right now, and my thoughts and prayers go out to those who have lost someone that they love.”
By PAULA TRACY, InDepthNH.org
CONCORD – While Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said she opposes increasing highway toll rates across the state, the Senate voted Thursday to increase rates for out-of-state license plate holders.
It now goes to the House for consideration.
This would be a $1 increase for those who have out of state plates going through the tolls at Hooksett, Hampton and Bedford for out-of-state plates, a 75 cent hike for those taking Hampton’s Exit 2 and on the Spaulding turnpike at Rochester, and a 50 cent hike for those taking the exit off I-93 to Hooksett.
An analysis in the bill shows that this would increase toll revenue by $53.3 million in fiscal year 2027 and go up each year to generate $81.4 million a year in 2036.
Senate Bill 627 passed on a voice vote with two Republicans, Senators Regina Birdsell of Hampstead and William Gannon of Sandown opposing.
Senator Mark E. McConkey, R-Freedom, moved to take the bill off the table and offered an amendment.
He said the last time there was a systemwide increase to the turnpike toll was 19 years ago.
“I am sure we could all agree the cost of operations…has continued to escalate when revenue is not rising with it,” and he noted that with an enterprise fund, the state can only spend what it takes in.
The state has just completed a 10-year highway plan and there was a $400 million shortfall in projects that could not be paid for under the current income.
McConkey said the measure would not increase tolls for New Hampshire drivers with a state license plate.
“Why don’t we ask our neighbors,” to pay a toll increase. “We are getting the best of all worlds,” by passing the bill, he said, including “protecting our residents” and having resources for improvements to the turnpike system.
Sen. Gannon, R-Sandown, asked McConkey if there are any studies on impacts near the border on businesses.
If implemented, McConkey said the state will be the 27th lowest in per mile cost still. McConkey said the bill would also increase from seven to 14 days the amount of time for those with NH license plates to pay for a toll adding there are other states that also have different rates for out-of-state users.
The Hampton toll cost would go from $2 to $3, while Hooksett and Bedford would rise from $1 to $2 for out-of-state plates.
New Hampshire currently has the lowest rate per mile among states with tolls roads.
The governor said she does not support a toll increase.
“We are not going to put a burden on drivers for a toll increase,” Ayotte said. “Families are struggling.”
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