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Four ways Trump can get to a 96% chance of winning

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The 2016 election hinged on 40,000 votes in key Midwest states. This time the margin of victory, or defeat, may be even more dramatic: 10,000 to 20,000 Pennsylvanians – or the student section at a Penn State football game.  

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According to election guru Nate Silver, if former President Donald Trump wins the Keystone State, his chances of winning the White House are 96%. We know Trump’s strengths with men – and his weaknesses with women. Thus, the entire race could hinge on his ability to persuade several thousand women in Pennsylvania to turn his way. 

Easier said than done, as this election poses new challenges. For the first time, abortion has surpassed the economy as the No. 1 issue for female voters under 45 years of age. For women overall, abortion is now neck-and-neck with the economy as the preeminent issue.  

HARRIS, TRUMP ENTER POST-DEBATE ‘HOMESTRETCH’ WITH DUELING RALLIES IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES

With this backdrop, some perspective and prudence are needed:  

Trump after ABC debate

Former President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up in the spin room following the debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. If he wants to get back into the White House, winning Pennsylvania makes it very likely. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

First, Trump should be given leeway by the right in his approach to abortion. For the past 50 years, Republicans have had the benefit of a single unifying message: overturn Roe vs Wade.  

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Now, the debate has changed, and even the most pro-life states and governors vary on their state-specific policies. And the political reality is that most Americans are somewhere in the middle on this difficult issue, like in Pennsylvania, where abortion is legal up to 24 weeks.  

Trump delivered on his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe and send the issue back to the states. It’s not the perfect solution, but it’s a solution for the hardest question in American political life. The right should give Trump the latitude to explain these positions and assure Pennsylvanians that the issue is now in their hands.  

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Second, remind parents of what is at stake. Suburban moms may have little regard for Trump’s style, personality and rough-and-ready approach to policy and people, but, when he was president, he fought to keep kids in the classroom during COVID-19 and nonsense out. Democrats, and their teachers union allies, have done the opposite.  

Despite what many view as his personality defects, Trump ran a good country and was on the side of parents and students. The question is not who we would rather have as a classroom teacher — Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris — but who’s more likely to wield government to interfere with our children, to try to shape them and their views in the things we do not believe or are none of their business. The answer, to us, seems obvious. 

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Third, expose Harris’s hypocrisy on fracking — a key industry for Pennsylvanians. Admittedly, it’s hard to know what Harris is running for – but it’s clear what she’s running from: her record.  

She previously said she would ban fracking. She said she would abolish the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal. She passed the deciding vote for the Inflation Reduction Act — arguably the largest “green” pork bill ever passed. On their first day in office, the Biden-Harris administration canceled the Keystone XL Pipeline, and they’ve blocked oil and gas leases on large swaths of federal lands.  

Trump delivered on his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe and send the issue back to the states. It’s not the perfect solution, but it’s a solution for the hardest question in American political life. The right should give Trump the latitude to explain these positions and assure Pennsylvanians that the issue is now in their hands.  

This is an administration beholden to radical environmentalists; she pays lip service to fracking because she knows the political stakes. Or as Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said recently, she’s “doing what she thinks is right in order to win the election.” 

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Finally, let us not forget Butler, Pennsylvania, ever. In that field north of Pittsburgh, Trump made his strongest case to date. As he rose defiantly in the face of death, he demonstrated his best quality: he’s a fighter for his country. Whether it’s the Russia collusion hoax, the bogus lawfare, or a near assassination, he doesn’t back down. That’s a quality that Pennsylvanians respect, and it could make the difference.  

Chris Beach is a former speechwriter to the U.S. Secretary of Defense.

WILLIAM BENNETT

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New York

Timberlake Pleads Guilty to Driving While Impaired in Hamptons Case

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Timberlake Pleads Guilty to Driving While Impaired in Hamptons Case

The singer Justin Timberlake pleaded guilty on Friday to driving while impaired, resolving a case that began with his June arrest on drunken-driving charges in the Hamptons.

As part of his plea, Mr. Timberlake agreed to pay a $500 fine and serve 25 hours of community service for a charity of his choosing. He also agreed to a 90-day suspension of his driver’s license in New York.

The singer, who was originally charged with the more serious crime of driving while intoxicated, entered the plea during an appearance at a 30-seat courthouse in the village of Sag Harbor. He wore a black cardigan and khaki slacks, with a double strand of pearls peeking out from beneath a dark T-shirt.

During the hearing, Mr. Timberlake looked on with his hands folded in front of him. His original plea agreement stipulated that he would make a public safety announcement discouraging drinking and driving. Justice Carl Irace, the village court judge overseeing the case, said on Friday that it would be more meaningful for the singer to commit himself to “a period of reflection and contemplation” through community service.

Mr. Timberlake agreed, and acknowledged that he had erred in driving rather than calling a taxi or getting a ride from a friend.

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“It was a clear misjudgment,” he said.

Justice Irace, satisfied with Mr. Timberlake’s contrition, commended him for his sincerity. The judge also asked about drug and alcohol counseling for the singer, calling its absence from the plea deal “concerning,” but did not impose it.

Speaking in front of a throng of reporters and cameras outside Sag Harbor Police Headquarters after the hearing, Mr. Timberlake urged people following the case to learn from his mistake.

“Many of you have probably been covering me for a lot of my life, and as you may know, I try to hold myself to a very high standard, for myself, and this was not that,” he said.

The arrest occurred in the early hours of June 18, when a Sag Harbor police officer pulled over a new-model BMW that was driving erratically.

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Mr. Timberlake, glassy-eyed and smelling of alcohol, was at the wheel, according to an arrest report. After stepping out of the car, he struggled to complete several sobriety tests, the report said. He was placed in custody and held overnight.

The singer told the police that he was on his way home after having had “one martini.” His lawyer, Edward Burke Jr., insisted to reporters that his client was not drunk when he was arrested. (Mr. Burke’s statements about the charges outside court prompted Justice Irace to scold him at an August hearing.)

The guilty plea concludes a summer of embarrassment for Mr. Timberlake. His arrest inspired a flood of mocking memes and tabloid attention. And even the court dates he did not attend in person drew crowds of reporters and film crews to Sag Harbor’s downtown, where the municipal building is surrounded by clothing boutiques, upscale galleries and the American Hotel. Mr. Timberlake had been seen there imbibing on the night of his arrest.

The legal woes have not interrupted his Forget Tomorrow world tour. He has continued playing stadium concerts, and even cracked a joke about the charges at a show in Boston in June. Justice Irace, acknowledging the demands of Mr. Timberlake’s tour schedule, made the unusual decision to allow the singer to attend the August hearing via video conference from an undisclosed location in Europe.

Mr. Timberlake is scheduled to perform at the Prudential Center in Newark at the end of September as part of a charity show that will benefit a suicide-prevention nonprofit.

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Although social media users had a laugh or two at Mr. Timberlake’s expense, some prominent people with ties to the Hamptons sympathized with his public relations headache. In a recent New Yorker profile, the celebrity chef Ina Garten said she felt bad for “poor Justin Timberlake.”

Asked about Mr. Timberlake’s arrest in June, Billy Joel, a Sag Harbor resident who crashed his car three times on Long Island in the early 2000s, advised a local news reporter to “judge not, lest ye be judged.”

On Friday, Sag Harbor’s lesser-known residents were unsympathetic.

Interviewed on Main Street, Helen Hernandez, an accountant with homes in Sag Harbor and Westchester County, said she thought prosecutors should not have agreed to let Mr. Timberlake plead guilty to a less severe charge. Ms. Hernandez said a member of her family had spent $10,000 in legal fees to fight a similar charge in Westchester.

“I’m not a big fan of his,” she said.

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Lawrence Rich, a real estate broker who splits his time between Sag Harbor and New York City, said he thought Mr. Timberlake’s celebrity status might have helped his case.

“Rich and famous people get away with things,” he said. “Somebody who’s not rich and famous would be in jail.”

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Boston, MA

Boston Mayor Wu rescinds Summer Street bus lane that wasn’t working ‘as intended’ in bustling Seaport

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Boston Mayor Wu rescinds Summer Street bus lane that wasn’t working ‘as intended’ in bustling Seaport


The Wu administration plans to remove a bus lane on Summer Street that runs through South Boston, citing data from a six-month pilot that showed it wasn’t working as intended, largely because cars were illegally using it more than buses. 

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Pittsburg, PA

Steelers Avoid Major Injury Scare

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Steelers Avoid Major Injury Scare


The Pittsburgh Steelers have released their final injury report before they take off for Denver and take on the Broncos in Week 2.

After appearing on Thursday’s report for the first time all season with a groin injury that forced him to miss practice, starting inside linebacker Patrick Queen did not receive a designation for Sunday’s contest and should be good to go as he was a full participant on Friday.

Queen signed a three-year deal worth $41 million with Pittsburgh in free agency after spending the first four years of his career with the Baltimore Ravens.

In the Steelers’ Week 1 win over the Atlanta Falcons, he played 56 snaps and made two tackles. Queen has never missed a regular season game.

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Quarterback Russell Wilson was a limited participant once again and was listed as questionable on the report.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has told reporters throughout the week that he expects Justin Fields to start against Denver after Wilson has not progressed in his recovery from a calf injury that held him out of Week 1.

Rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson was also listed as questionable with an ankle injury. He was downgraded from a full participant on Thursday to a limited participant on Friday. He initially suffered his injury at the beginning of training camp and did not appear in any of Pittsburgh’s three preseason contests.

Left guard Isaac Seumalo, who was characterized as being “week-to-week” to start the regular season, was ruled out. He suffered a pectoral injury during practice on Aug. 28.

Cornerback Darius Rush (concussion), tackle Dan Moore Jr. (ankle), defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi (knee) and defensive lineman Cameron Heyward (rest) all were full participants on Friday and did not receive a designation on the final report.

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