Science
Why AI is better than humans at talking people out of their conspiracy theory beliefs
Roughly half of Americans subscribe to to some sort of conspiracy theory, and their fellow humans haven’t had much success coaxing them out of their rabbit holes.
Perhaps they could learn a thing or two from an AI-powered chatbot.
In a series of experiments, the artificial chatbot was able to make more than a quarter of people feel uncertain about their most cherished conspiracy belief. The average conversation lasted less than 8½ minutes.
The results were reported Thursday in the journal Science.
The failure of facts to convince people that we really did land on the moon, that Al Qaeda really was responsible for the 9/11 attacks, and that President Biden really did win the 2020 election, among other things, has fueled anxiety about a post-truth era that favors personal beliefs over objective evidence.
“People who believe in conspiracy theories rarely, if ever, change their mind,” said study leader Thomas Costello, a psychologist at American University who investigates political and social beliefs. “In some sense, it feels better to believe that there’s a secret society controlling everything than believing that entropy and chaos rule.”
But the study suggests the problem isn’t with the persuasive power of facts — it’s our inability to marshal the right combination of facts to counter someone’s specific reasons for skepticism.
Costello and his colleagues attributed the chatbot’s success to the detailed, customized arguments it prepared for each of the 2,190 study participants it engaged with.
For instance, a person who doubted that the twin towers could have been brought down by airplanes because jet fuel doesn’t burn hot enough to melt steel was informed that the fuel reaches temperatures as high as 1,832 degrees, enough for steel to lose its structural integrity and trigger a collapse.
A person who didn’t believe Lee Harvey Oswald had the skills to assassinate President John F. Kennedy was told that Oswald had been a sharpshooter in the Marines and wouldn’t have had much trouble firing an accurate shot from about 90 yards away.
And a person who believed Princess Diana was killed so Prince Charles could remarry was reminded of the 8-year gap between Diana’s fatal car accident and the future king’s second wedding, undermining the argument that the two events were related.
The findings suggest that “any type of belief that people hold that is not based in good evidence could be shifted,” said study co-author Gordon Pennycook, a cognitive psychologist at Cornell University.
“It’s really validating to know that evidence does matter,” he said.
The researchers began by asking Americans to rate the degree to which they subscribed to 15 common conspiracy theories, including that the virus responsible for COVID-19 was created by the Chinese government and that the U.S. military has been hiding evidence of a UFO landing in Roswell, N.M. After performing an unrelated task, participants were asked to describe a conspiracy theory they found particularly compelling and explain why they believed it.
The request prompted 72% of them to share their feelings about a conspiracy theory. Among this group, 60% were randomly assigned to discuss it with the large language model GPT-4 Turbo.
A screenshot of the chatbot used by researchers to test whether AI could help change people’s minds about conspiracy theories.
(Thomas H. Costello)
The conversations began with the chatbot summarizing the human’s description of the conspiracy theory. Then the human rated the degree to which he or she agreed with the summary on a scale from 0 to 100.
From there, the chatbot set about making the case that there was nothing fishy going on. To make sure it wasn’t stretching the truth in order to be more persuasive, the researchers hired a professional fact-checker to evaluate 128 of the bot’s claims about a variety of conspiracies. One was judged to be misleading, and the rest were true.
The bot also turned up the charm. In one case, it praised a participant for “critically examining historical events” while reminding them that “it’s vital to distinguish between what could theoretically be possible and what is supported by evidence.”
Each conversation included three rounds of evidence from the chatbot, followed by a response from the human. (You can try it yourself here.) Afterward, the participants revisited their summarized conspiracy statements. Their ratings of agreement dropped by an average of 21%.
In 27% of cases, the drop was large enough for the researchers to say the person “became uncertain of their conspiracy belief.”
Meanwhile, the 40% of participants who served as controls also got summaries of their preferred conspiracy theory and scored them on the 0-to-100 scale. Then they talked with the chatbot about neutral topics, like the U.S. medical system or the relative merits of cats and dogs. When these people were asked to reconsider their conspiracy theory summaries, their ratings fell by just 1%, on average.
The researchers checked in with people 10 days and 2 months later to see if the effects had worn off. They hadn’t.
The team repeated the experiment with another group and asked people about their conspiracy-theory beliefs in a more roundabout way. This time, discussing their chosen theory with the bot prompted a 19.4% decrease in their rating, compared with a 2.9% decrease for those who chatted about something else.
The conversations “really fundamentally changed people’s minds,” said co-author David Rand, a computational social scientist at MIT who studies how people make decisions.
“The effect didn’t vary significantly based on which conspiracy was named and discussed,” Rand said. “It worked for classic conspiracies like the JFK assassination and moon landing hoaxes and Illuminati, stuff like that. And it also worked for modern, more politicized conspiracies like those involving 2020 election fraud or COVID-19.”
What’s more, being challenged by the AI chatbot about one conspiracy theory prompted people to become more skeptical about others. After their conversations, their affinity for the 15 common theories fell significantly more than it did for people in the control group.
“It was making people less generally conspiratorial,” Rand said. “It also increased their intentions to do things like ignore or block social media accounts sharing conspiracies, or, you know, argue with people who are espousing those conspiracy theories.”
In another encouraging sign, the bot was unable to talk people out of beliefs in conspiracies that were actually true, such as the CIA’s covert MK-Ultra project that used unwitting subjects to test whether drugs, torture or brainwashing could enhance interrogations. In some cases, the chatbot discussions made people believe these conspiracies even more.
“It wasn’t like mind control, just, you know, making people do whatever it wants,” Rand said. “It was essentially following facts.”
Researchers who weren’t involved in the study called it a welcome advance.
In an essay that accompanied the study, psychologist Bence Bago of Tilberg University in the Netherlands and cognitive psychologist Jean-Francois Bonnefon of the Toulouse School of Economics in France said the experiments show that “a scalable intervention to recalibrate misinformed beliefs may be within reach.”
But they also raised several concerns, including whether it would work on a conspiracy theory that’s so new there aren’t many facts for an AI bot to draw from.
The researchers took a first pass at testing this the week after the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Trump. After helping the AI program find credible information about the attack, they found that talking with the chatbot reduced people’s belief in assassination-related conspiracy theories by 6 or 7 percentage points, which Costello called “a noticeable effect.”
Bago and Bonnefon also questioned whether conspiracy theorists would be willing to engage with a bot. Rand said he didn’t think that would be an insurmountable problem.
“One thing that’s an advantage here is that conspiracy theorists often aren’t embarrassed about their beliefs,” he said. “You could imagine just going to conspiracy forums and inviting people to do their own research by talking to the chatbot.”
Rand also suggested buying ads on search engines so that when someone types a query about, say, the “deep state,” they’ll see an invitation to discuss it with an AI chatbot.
Robbie Sutton, a social psychologist at the University of Kent in England who studies why people embrace conspiracy beliefs, called the new work “an important step forward.” But he noted that most people in the study persisted in their beliefs despite receiving “high-quality, factual rebuttals” from a “highly competent and respectful chatbot.”
“Seen this way, there is more resistance than there is open-mindedness,” he said.
Sutton added that the findings don’t shed much light on what draws people to conspiracy theories in the first place.
“Interventions like this are essentially an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff,” he said. “We need to focus more of our efforts on what happens at the top of the cliff.”
Science
July Fourth fireworks may bring ‘hazardous’ air quality to Southern California. What you need to know
L.A.’s love of fireworks makes for a colorful Fourth of July, with dozens of official celebrations and countless illicit explosions expected for the holiday.
But as each sparkler, Roman candle, palm and peony dissipates, it leaves behind a cloud of noxious gases, soot and finely ground toxic metals — some of which ends up in the lungs of revelers and passersby below.
Hazardous levels of air pollution are expected across central and southern Los Angeles County, northern Orange County, and Riverside and San Bernardino counties from 5 p.m. Saturday evening through 3 p.m. Sunday, according to the South Coast Air Quality Management District. Unhealthy air quality is also expected in northern Los Angeles County and southern Orange County.
Pollution levels are expected to build from dusk onward Saturday, as light winds and increased firework activity lead to an increase in smoke, a South Coast AQMD advisory said. Soot and particulates will likely linger through Sunday afternoon before being dispersed by the wind.
Firework-related pollution can trigger coughs, breathing problems, asthma flares and heart attacks, according to Los Angeles County Public Health, and anyone experiencing severe or worsening cardiovascular symptoms like chest pain or difficulty breathing should seek medical attention immediately.
Pyrotechnics set off at home are even more likely to trigger cardiovascular problems, the American Lung Assn. says, as the burst of pollutants takes place closer to the ground.
July 4 and 5 are traditionally two of the worst days of the year for the region’s air quality, according to South Coast AQMD. This year’s celebration comes on the heels of a late June warehouse fire in Boyle Heights that released extraordinary amounts of soot and smoke across the county, on par with pollution generated by the previous year’s wildfires.
To limit negative health effects, the L.A. County public health department recommends avoiding strenuous physical activity and keeping doors and windows closed. As whole house fans and swamp coolers can suck additional pollutants inside, the department recommends using air purifiers or air conditioners as alternatives when possible.
Science
Contributor: Alcohol should be stigmatized like smoking
Few substances are as deeply woven into everyday life as alcohol. It is a fixture at holiday celebrations, work-related social gatherings, sporting events, airports, and brunch or dinner tables. All demonstrate how deeply alcohol has become embedded in social customs and cultural traditions.
Yet alcohol contributes to millions of deaths globally each year and is linked to cancer, liver disease, unintentional accidents, violence and, importantly, dependence and addiction. Despite this, the disconnect between alcohol’s cultural role and its serious health burden is striking. An estimated 2.3 billion people worldwide consume alcohol.
As a physician working in addiction medicine, I regularly care for patients whose alcohol use affects nearly every organ system. It is often not until these patients end up admitted to the hospital that they learn the effects of alcohol on various parts of their body besides their liver.
Newer evidence challenges assumptions about what was long considered “safe drinking.” Even moderate drinking carries risk and is not as harmless as people, including experts, once thought.
Many people associate alcohol risk primarily with addiction or dangerous behaviors such as driving while intoxicated. However, its effects extend far beyond this, into nearly every aspect of a person’s well-being.
While alcohol may transiently improve mood and ease social anxiety, long-term alcohol use can lead to a worsening of mood, cognition and sleep, which can further compound use.
A 2021 literature review found that consuming approximately two standard drinks roughly doubles the odds of sustaining injuries — with or without a vehicle involved. The review also found that heavy episodic (binge) drinking can increase the risk of injury by 50-fold, depending on the amount of alcohol consumed and the type of injury. While alcohol’s effects on the liver are well known, it can also lead to gastrointestinal complications and heart disease
The World Health Organization estimates that 2.6 million deaths each year are attributable to alcohol, accounting for nearly 1 in every 20 deaths worldwide.
While many people recognize the risks of alcohol addiction, people are generally much less aware of the links between alcohol use and cancer risk.
The World Health Organization classifies alcohol as a Group 1 carcinogen — the same category as tobacco and asbestos. In 2025, the U.S. surgeon general emphasized that alcohol increases the risk of at least seven cancers, including cancers of the breast, colorectal, liver, oral, esophagus and larynx. An advisory called for updated warning labels.
Yet fewer than half of Americans recognize alcohol as a risk factor for cancer, particularly for cancers such as breast cancer that are not commonly associated with alcohol use.
Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, observational studies suggested that moderate alcohol consumption might offer cardiovascular benefits. Over the past decade, however, higher-quality studies have challenged these findings, suggesting that much of the apparent benefit may have reflected differences in the health and lifestyles of moderate drinkers rather than a protective effect of alcohol itself.
Current evidence increasingly suggests that even low levels of alcohol may increase cancer risk.
Federal guidelines acknowledge that adults should “consume less alcohol for better overall health.” However, the most recent version of the “Dietary Guidelines for Americans,” updated in January, removed the previous recommendation to limit intake to no more than one drink per day for women and two for men. It also omitted explicit discussion of alcohol’s links to cancer.
These changes have drawn criticism from public health experts, who argue that the revised language plays down the growing evidence of alcohol-related harms and provides less specific guidance to consumers. The current administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services characterized alcohol as a “social lubricant” that brings people together, rather than emphasizing its well-established health risks.
This may be true physiologically, at least temporarily, but obscures the fact that relying on it as a social lubricant can lead to chemical and psychological dependency. In my view, statements to that effect are shortsighted, prioritizing short-term social effects over more insidious and long-term issues, including addiction.
While many dangerous mind-altering substances are hidden from public perception, alcohol is often placed at the center of it – a trend that shows no sign of changing imminently.
Further, large companies often profit from ads that appeal to young people.
Looking back at the history of tobacco smoking provides some helpful insights. In 1965, 42.4% of the U.S. population smoked. By 2022, that figure had dropped to 11.6%.
This steep decline did not happen because of a single intervention, but through decades of accumulating scientific evidence, public education campaigns, warning labels, restrictions on advertising, smoke-free policies, higher tobacco taxes and shifts in social norms. Together, these efforts transformed smoking from a widely accepted social behavior into one broadly recognized as a major health risk and correspondingly, less socially accepted.
Although alcohol consumption has modestly declined in recent years, it remains deeply embedded in social life in ways cigarette smoking no longer is.
People often assume that if a substance is legal, common and widely socially accepted — even encouraged — it must also be safe. But public health history suggests those assumptions can and should change.
Emma Fenske is an addiction medicine fellow and internal medicine physician at Oregon Health & Science University. This article was produced in partnership with the Conversation.
Science
Boyle Heights blaze choked L.A. with astronomical soot pollution
The air near the Lineage refrigerated warehouse fire in Boyle Heights carried astronomically high levels of smoke and soot, surpassing some of the worst air pollution during the Los Angeles County fires in January 2025, according to preliminary data from air officials.
The fire spewed thick black smoke for days. From downtown Los Angeles to the San Gabriel Valley, tens of thousands were enveloped in unhealthful levels of smoke, even as some local officials told residents that the air posed no danger.
As the days wore on, worst off were communities nearest the blaze. On June 19, three days after the facility ignited, a temporary air quality monitoring station at Eastman Elementary in unincorporated East Los Angeles measured an extremely hazardous 755 micrograms per cubic meter of fine particles for more than an hour, according to the South Coast Air Quality Management District.
For comparison, a Caltech air monitor in Pasadena recorded about 650 micrograms per cubic meter during the Eaton fire.
These high levels of fine particles, known as PM 2.5, probably resulted in the surge of residents into local emergency rooms during the fire, according to local health officials. But even now with the smoke gone, people still have not been told what chemicals they were breathing in during the weeklong ordeal.
Michael Jerrett, an environmental health professor at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said his concern is the composition of materials emitted when the building burned.
“These contain many particularly toxic components,” Jerrett said, “and we know little about how these mixtures affect health.”
There is no completely safe level of fine particulate pollution, he noted, meaning higher concentrations are always worse.
During the 2025 L.A. County fires, local air officials announced that several monitors downwind had detected elevated levels of brain-damaging lead and cancer-causing arsenic from toxic paint and construction materials used in older homes.
The Lineage warehouse, built in 2018, is likely to contain different materials of concern. Thick insulation foam required for a massive refrigeration operation, solar panels and refrigerants were burned, leaving many residents on edge.
Even though three public agencies conducted air monitoring, the picture is still murky.
“[Public officials] are speaking with a lot of confidence but not a lot of information,” said mark! Lopez, a community organizer with East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice. “We’ve gotten in the room with folks to discuss where the gaps lie and where assumptions are being made. And I think they are realizing these agencies supposed to protect our air and our health aren’t as reliable as they thought they were.”
In response to the Boyle Heights fire, the South Coast air district deployed a mobile monitoring vehicle to screen for toxic substances in the community near the fire, according to Nahal Mogharabi, a spokesperson for the air district. It found increased levels of bromine, a chemical commonly found in fire retardant, and chlorine, often released from burning plastic. Both were below short-term health-based exposure thresholds.
Toxic metals, including lead and arsenic, were not elevated, according to air district data.
“That was the reassuring piece, that they were not picking up any of the metals,” said Dr. Nichole Quick, chief medical advisor for the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. “But … that smoke is unhealthy. “You don’t want to be breathing it, regardless.”
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency set up air monitors around the perimeter of the facility to test for toxic air contaminants, has the results and has not made them public. Julia Giarmoleo, an EPA spokesperson, said the monitors did not detect elevated metals, but would not provide a copy of the data without a federal records request.
The Los Angeles Fire Department’s hazardous material team also tested for ammonia, which is used in refrigeration, and hydrogen fluoride, a toxic chemical that could be released by burning lithium-ion batteries and solar panels.
Fire officials previously said they measured low levels of hydrogen fluoride on the second day of the fire. But the department would not answer questions about its air monitoring. It also told a reporter to submit a public records request.
It remains unclear whether any agency has tested for hydrogen cyanide or isocyanates, highly toxic gases that could be released from burning chemical-laden insulating foam inside the building.
“The real issue is what monitoring has not been done to protect the fence-line community from the air toxics,” said Jane Williams, executive director of California Communities Against Toxics.
Without the EPA or LAFD data, what is known of the smoke’s toxicity rests on the air district’s mobile monitoring.
Jerrett, the UCLA researcher, said that is not ideal for understanding the kind of plume released by the Boyle Heights fire, which rapidly changed direction with the wind.
“This can in some instances lead to levels that look low, but they are resulting from a mismatch between the location of the vehicle and the plume,” he said.
The Boyle Heights blaze, similar to the Eaton and Palisades fires, has revealed the region’s air monitoring can’t always tell people what they’ve been exposed to in a disaster.
“We do need a better monitoring system in place,” he said.
Local officials are now shifting their focus to the rancid odors from millions of pounds of rotting food in the ruined wing of the warehouse. Decomposing food can release hydrogen sulfide, a toxic gas synonymous with landfills and garbage. Lineage hired contractors who are measuring this noxious gas and other pollution. Their data indicate they have not detected hydrogen sulfide.
As Lineage workers haul the rotting food to local landfills, they are using deodorizing mist and have discussed using shrink wrapping to suppress the stench and minimize issues for nearby homes.
At this point, the odors are believed to be an inconvenience rather than a public health threat, according to Quick, the county medical advisor. She said running air purifiers may help to reduce odors indoors.
“It’s very important for folks to understand that the odors themselves do not indicate any dangerous levels of toxins, mold, bacteria, and so forth,” Quick said. “But the odors are a public nuisance.”
The air district is still encouraging residents to report odors to its online complaint system or by calling (800) 288-7664.
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