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Who Are the Millions of Immigrants Trump Wants to Deport?

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Who Are the Millions of Immigrants Trump Wants to Deport?

President-elect Trump has promised to deport millions of people who are living in the United States without permission. This population is commonly referred to as “undocumented,” “unauthorized” or “illegal.” But these terms are not entirely accurate. A significant number are in the country with temporary permissions — though many are set to expire during Mr. Trump’s term.

For the last decade, the best estimates put this population at around 11 million. But the number of people crossing U.S. borders reached a record level in 2022 before falling last year. More recent estimates put the number of people without legal status or with temporary protection from deportation at almost 14 million in 2024.

Many of them have permission to be here, at least for now.

“It’s true that immigration is high, but it’s hard to sort out who is an undocumented immigrant,” said Robert Warren, a demographer and the former statistics director at what was then the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. “Most of the public looks at everyone as undocumented — asylum-seekers, T.P.S., DACA — but it’s important to really figure out who is included.”

The New York Times compared estimates from several research organizations and the federal government, as well as more recent administrative data, to better understand who these immigrants are, how they got here, and which of them may be most vulnerable to deportation under Mr. Trump.

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Those with permission fall under the protection of many different programs.

What is perhaps most surprising — or misleading — about terms like “undocumented” and “unauthorized” is that as many as 40 percent of the people in this group do have some current authorization to live or work legally in the United States, according to one estimate by FWD.us, an immigration advocacy group that hired a demographer to study the population.

In an effort to deter illegal crossings, the Biden administration created a way for migrants to make an appointment to cross the southern border through a smartphone app called CBP One. The administration also created special pathways for people fleeing humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Ukraine and Venezuela and extended temporary protection from deportation for people from certain countries through a program known as Temporary Protected Status.

Immigrants who enter the country through these programs are following the current rules, but Mr. Trump and other Republicans have attacked them and said the programs are illegal.

Millions more people have applied for asylum and are allowed to remain in the country while their cases wend through immigration court — though very few asylum claims are ultimately granted. An Obama-era program known as DACA protects from deportation about 540,000 undocumented people brought to the country as children.

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The Biden administration also deferred deportation for other groups of people, like those who have applied for protection because they were victims of or witnesses to a crime.

Trump has limited power to immediately remove these groups.

Many of the permissions offering humanitarian relief are set to expire during the Trump administration, including some that Mr. Biden recently extended. If the incoming administration were to try to end these protections sooner, it would likely face lawsuits.

Mr. Trump could immediately stop accepting new applications for humanitarian parole. It may be harder to cancel the status of those who are already here.

Nor can Mr. Trump easily deport the 2.6 million people who are awaiting a hearing or a decision on an asylum claim. He could try to hire more immigration judges to decide these cases, but even with a significant infusion of new funds, it would take years to work through the backlog.

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DACA is no longer accepting new applications, and the future of the program is uncertain because of a lawsuit filed by several Republican state attorneys general.

People can have more than one status, and many of these groups overlap.

Many people in the country with temporary permission fall under overlapping programs.

For example, the bulk of the people who arrived through one of the Biden-era humanitarian pathways were granted parole for two years. Many of them now also have Temporary Protected Status. Along with those who used the CBP One app to cross the southern border, they can also apply for asylum within the first year they are in the United States.

These immigrants come from all over the world.

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Note: Not all countries are shown. Data as of 2022. The growth shown for select countries is based on administrative data.

Source: Pew Research Center.

More than half of those who are in the United States without authorization have been here for 10 years or more.

Mexicans remain by far the largest group of people living in the country without authorization, but their share has declined significantly since the 1990s, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

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An influx of people fleeing humanitarian and economic crises came from Central America during Mr. Trump’s first term, and many of them are still in the country.

Mexican officials and other leaders in the region say they have not been able to meet with the incoming administration about its deportation plans.

Few immigrants can be swiftly removed. Even fewer are in custody.

Out of all those who are unauthorized, Mr. Trump has said the top priority for deportation will be criminals. There are around 655,000 noncitizens living in the U.S. with criminal convictions or pending charges, according to data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, though many of these charges are for minor offenses such as traffic violations.

There were about 39,000 immigrants in ICE custody at the end of December, near capacity for holding facilities.

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The Trump administration may also focus its enforcement efforts on the nearly 1.4 million people whom an immigration judge has already ordered to be removed from the country.

Many of the rest have been living in the country for years and have developed ties to their communities, including having children born in the United States. It would require a significant amount of time and resources to locate and remove them.

Methodology and sources

There is no direct measure of the population living in the United States without authorization, as no major government survey collects information on immigration status.

In order to estimate the size of the unauthorized population, most researchers rely on a method that starts with survey data from the Census Bureau and then adjusts it using administrative records and other data to subtract the number of immigrants who are legally in the country from the total number of foreign-born residents.

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Recent estimates of the unauthorized population

The number of people waiting for an asylum claim comes from the Pew Research Center as of 2023. The number of people with Temporary Protected Status comes from the Congressional Research Service as of September 2024. The number of DACA recipients comes from U.S.C.I.S. as of September 2024. Figures for the number of people who have entered through humanitarian parole from specific countries and through a CBP One appointment at the southern border are from C.B.P as of December 2024. Many people may be counted in more than one of these groups.

Figures for the number of ICE cases pending and paused are for the national docket and come from the agency’s annual report as of September 2024. The number of noncitizens with a criminal charge or conviction comes from ICE, as of Jan. 8.

All numbers are rounded.

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A minor, 2.3-magnitude earthquake struck about 12 miles north of New York City on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 10:17 a.m. Eastern in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., data from the agency shows.

The Westchester County emergency services department said in a statement that it had not received any reports of damage.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 2:18 p.m. Eastern.

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Ed Martin, outspoken Justice Department lawyer, is formally accused of ethical violations | CNN Politics

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Ed Martin, outspoken Justice Department lawyer, is formally accused of ethical violations | CNN Politics

Ed Martin, an outspoken Trump administration official, is facing attorney discipline proceedings in Washington, DC, for a letter he sent to Georgetown Law about its diversity programs, the district’s professional conduct investigator announced on Tuesday.

Martin is formally accused of violating his ethical codes as an attorney for telling Georgetown Law’s dean last year that his Justice Department office wouldn’t hire students because of the school’s diversity, inclusion and equity initiatives programs, according to the filing from Hamilton Fox, the disciplinary counsel for DC who acts as a quasi-prosecutor on attorney discipline matters.

Unlike unsolicited complaints, Fox’s formal disciplinary complaint kicks off professional conduct proceedings for Martin in which he will need to respond and could be sanctioned or ultimately lose his law license.

Fox’s announcement on Tuesday marks the first major bar discipline proceeding against a high-profile administration official or attorney supporting President Donald Trump during Trump’s second term. Several Trump lawyers faced disciplinary proceedings after the efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, including Rudy Giuliani, who lost his law license.

“Acting in his official capacity and speaking on behalf of the government, he used coercion to punish or suppress a disfavored viewpoint, the teaching and promotion of ‘DEI,’” Fox wrote in the complaint. “He demanded that Georgetown Law relinquish its free speech and religious rights in order to continue to obtain a benefit, employment opportunities for its students.”

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Martin was removed from the top prosecutor job in DC after senators made clear he would not be confirmed to the role, but has remained at the Justice Department in several roles, including as pardon attorney.

“Mr. Martin knew or should have known that, as a government official, his conduct violated the First and Fifth Amendments to the Constitution of the United States,” Fox wrote.

Martin is being represented by a Justice Department attorney, a source told CNN.

A spokesperson for DOJ attacked Fox’s complaint. “The DC bar’s attempt to target and punish those serving President Trump while refusing to investigate or act against actual ethical violations that were committed by Biden and Obama administration attorneys is a clear indication of this partisan organization’s agenda,” DOJ said.

Martin had sent the letter to Georgetown Law while serving temporarily as US attorney for DC, a prominent Justice Department position, and told the school his federal prosecutors’ office wouldn’t hire Georgetown’s law school students. It came at a time when the Trump administration was beginning to crack down on universities for their DEI efforts.

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In his letter, Martin claimed a whistleblower told him that the school was teaching and promoting DEI.

Martin also violated attorney ethics rules by contacting judges of the DC court directly, Fox alleged, rather than going through official channels, once he was informed he was under investigation for his professional conduct. The DC Court of Appeals ultimately signs off on attorney discipline findings.

Early last year, Fox’s office had formally asked Martin to respond to a complaint it received by a retired judge regarding the Georgetown letter.

Martin instead wrote to the judges on the DC court complaining about Fox.

“In that letter, he stated that he would not be responding to Disciplinary Counsel’s inquiry, complained about Disciplinary Counsel’s ‘uneven behavior,’ and requested a ‘face-to-face meeting with all of you to discuss this matter and find a way forward,’” Fox wrote.

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“He copied the White House Counsel ‘for informational purposes because of the importance of getting this issue addressed,’” Fox said.

The top judge in the DC courts told Martin the court wouldn’t meet with him about the disciplinary matter and that he would need to follow procedure.

With Fox’s complaint, there will now be several steps ahead of bar discipline authorities looking at Martin’s action, and Fox didn’t specify how Martin should be reprimanded or punished if the discipline boards and the court ultimately determine he violated his ethical codes.

Spokespeople for the Justice Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday morning.

In recent days, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her office would have a more powerful role in reviewing attorney discipline complaints against Justice Department attorneys, potentially setting up an approach that could keep the department at odds with the bar on behalf of DOJ attorneys facing their own individual disciplinary proceedings.

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CNN’s Paula Reid contributed to this report.

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Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply

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Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply

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Asian and European buyers are battling to source liquefied natural gas after the war in the Middle East choked off shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a fifth of global supplies.

In an indication of the intensifying contest for LNG since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, a handful of gas carriers have abruptly changed course while sailing to Europe and swung towards Asia instead, according to ship monitoring data analysed by the FT.

Countries across Asia are highly dependent on oil and gas sent through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway where shipping has slowed to a near standstill.

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Most of the LNG produced in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is ordinarily shipped through the strait to Asia, and Asian LNG prices surged almost immediately after war broke out, creating an incentive to divert US gas to the region.

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Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are among the countries that need to source LNG to make up for supplies they will not receive from the Gulf, said Massimo Di Odoardo, head of gas and LNG analysis at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Taiwan relied on Qatar for more than 30 per cent of its gas consumption in 2025, according to Citigroup, while for South Korea and Japan the figures were 15 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Asia typically uses more gas than Europe in the hotter summer months because of more air-conditioning use, creating urgency for Asian utilities to secure cargoes.

The vast majority of LNG is sold under long-term contracts rather than on the spot market, but some buyers are able to change the final destination of their purchases and some sellers are willing to break contracts if prices rise high enough.

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By Thursday, surging European gas prices and rocketing shipping rates had swung the balance back against diversion of US LNG to Asia, according to data company Spark Commodities.

The decision on where to send gas carriers can depend on the relative levels of the European gas price, Asia’s JKM benchmark for LNG and shipping rates.

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For European buyers, the battle with Asia for LNG supplies is eerily familiar to the situation four years ago after Russia slashed pipeline natural gas flows to the continent following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Competition for spare cargoes then pushed prices to record levels.

On Monday, European gas prices reached as high as €69.50 per megawatt hour, more than double their level before the Iran conflict began. Even so, prices are still far from the €342 per megawatt hour reached in 2022.

JKM gas prices also more than doubled since the start of the war to $24.80 per 1mn British thermal units by Monday, equivalent to €73.10/MWh.

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European buyers have learnt from their experience in 2022. “Europe has more weapons at its disposal in this extreme price scenario to try and fight,” said Alex Kerr, a partner at law firm Baker Botts.

Buyers had started putting clauses in contracts to say that suppliers would face much higher penalties if they diverted cargoes for commercial gain, Kerr said.

There is also much more LNG on the market now that is not committed to set destinations, largely because of new projects starting in the US.

While producers such as Qatar impose strict rules on where its LNG can be sent, almost all US exports are allowed to sail wherever buyers want. Several analysts said there had also been an increase in the willingness of some producers to break contracts for financial advantage.

This makes diversions more likely, while the reluctance of some European buyers to sign long-term supply contracts before the outbreak of war this month could prove costly.

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Expectations of a global supply glut convinced some European buyers that it would be cheaper to wait until later in the year to sign supply deals.

Wood Mackenzie’s Di Odoardo said the buyers had also held off on LNG purchases because new EU legislation on methane emissions made it unclear whether they could incur penalties in the future.

The risk of prices rising as Europe and Asia fight for available cargoes is increasing every day the Strait of Hormuz stays almost closed.

Gas is more difficult to store and to carry in tankers than oil, making its markets more vulnerable to shortages and price shocks.

“The longer the Strait remains shut, the greater the risk that the shipping disruption turns into a genuine gas shortage, as tankers cannot load and facilities have limited storage,” said consultancy Oxford Economics in a research note.

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Additional reporting by Harry Dempsey in Tokyo. Data visualisation by Jana Tauschinski

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