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Wall Street slashes stock market forecasts amid Trump tariff fears

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Wall Street slashes stock market forecasts amid Trump tariff fears

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Wall Street banks have slashed their targets for the main US share gauge over the past fortnight, as fears grow over the potential economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade war.

At least 10 banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Evercore ISI, have cut their estimates for the S&P 500 index in the weeks since Trump’s decision to impose a baseline duty of 10 per cent on most US imports and higher “reciprocal tariffs” sent shockwaves through financial markets.

The S&P 500 has fallen more than 7 per cent in highly volatile trading since the initial levies were announced on April 2, and 14 per cent since touching a record high on February 19. Trump has since paused the reciprocal tariffs and created a carve-out for smartphones and some other electronics.

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But economists say the uncertainty caused by rapid U-turns in trade policy could still slow economic growth, or even trigger a recession — something that would hit the earnings of listed US companies.

“The goldilocks sentiment in place entering this year has given way to abject uncertainty,” said Citigroup analyst Scott Chronert in a note.

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Wall Street’s average end of year S&P 500 target now stands at 6,012 — compared with 6,539 at the end of last year. The S&P 500 finished this week at 5,283.

The new forecasts mean that, despite growing worries about slowing economic growth, strategists nevertheless expect the index to rise 14 per cent over the coming months. It would mark a gain of just 2 per cent for 2025, a major slowdown from the back-to-back rallies of more than 20 per cent in 2023 and 2024.

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The Banks’ newly cautious tone marks a humbling reversal since the start of the year, when many market participants had expected lower taxes and lighter regulation under a Republican administration to boost corporate profits.

Citigroup on Friday said it expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 5,800, down from a previous call of 6,500. The bank also lowered its 2025 earnings per share estimate to $255 from $270, just below the average forecast of $262, Bloomberg data shows.

Chronert said the recent sharp fall for US equities may become “the first bear market specifically triggered by US presidential actions”.

Line chart of S&P 500 showing US stocks have fallen sharply over the past two months

JPMorgan lowered its “base case” target on April 7 to 5,200 from 6,500, assuming “partial” relief on tariffs. “Even though we do not believe US exceptionalism is over,” the bank wrote at the time, “this [liberation day] shock came at a time when valuation was rich, positioning was crowded and leadership was particularly narrow.”

Peter Berezin at BCA Research, who has the lowest 2025 price target for the S&P 500 among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, said in mid-February that he expects the index to close out this year at about 4,450, implying a drop of 15 per cent from current levels. In early March he said a US recession was likely to begin within the next three months.

“There’s a lot of groupthink on Wall Street,” said Berezin.

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Man Charged With Posting Bomb Instructions Used in New Orleans Attack

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Man Charged With Posting Bomb Instructions Used in New Orleans Attack

Federal prosecutors have filed charges against a former Army serviceman they accused of distributing instructions on how to build explosives that were used by a man who conducted a deadly attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day last year.

The former serviceman, Jordan A. Derrick, a 40-year-old from Missouri, was charged with one count of engaging in the business of manufacturing explosive materials without a license; one count of unlawful possession of an unregistered destructive device; and one count of distributing information relating to manufacturing explosives, according to a criminal complaint unsealed on Wednesday. The three charges together carry a maximum sentence of 40 years in federal prison.

Starting in September 2023, the authorities said, Mr. Derrick was using various social media sites to share videos of himself making explosive materials, including detonators. His videos provided step-by-step instructions, and he often engaged with viewers in comments, sometimes answering their questions about the chemistry behind the explosives.

The authorities said that Mr. Derrick’s videos were downloaded by Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar, 42, who was accused of ramming a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans on Jan. 1, 2025, in a terrorist attack that killed 14 people and injured dozens. Mr. Jabbar was killed in a shootout with the police. Before the attack, Mr. Jabbar had placed two explosives on Bourbon Street, the authorities said, but they did not detonate.

The authorities later recovered two laptops and a USB drive in a house that Mr. Jabbar had rented. The USB drive contained several videos created by Mr. Derrick that provided instructions on making explosives. The authorities said the explosives they recovered were consistent with the ones Mr. Derrick had posted about.

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Mr. Derrick’s lawyers did not respond to requests for comment.

Mr. Derrick was a combat engineer in the Army, where he provided personnel and vehicle support, the authorities said. He also helped supervise safety personnel during demolitions and various operations. He was honorably discharged in February 2013.

The authorities did not say whether Mr. Derrick had any communication with Mr. Jabbar, or whether the men had known each other. In some of Mr. Derrick’s videos and comments, he indicated that he was aware that his videos could be misused.

“There are a plethora of uh, moral, you know, entanglements with topics, any topic of teaching explosives, right?” he asked in one video, according to the affidavit. “Of course, the wrong people could get it.”

The authorities also said that an explosion occurred at a private residence in Odessa, Mo., on May 4, and the occupant of the residence told investigators that he had manufactured explosives after watching online tutorials from Mr. Derrick.

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Mr. Derrick’s YouTube account had more than 15,000 subscribers and 20 published videos, the affidavit said. He had also posted content on other platforms, including Odysee and Patreon. Some videos were accessible to the public for free, while others required a paid subscription to view.

“My responsibility to my countrymen is to make sure that I serve the function of the Second Amendment to strengthen it,” Mr. Derrick said in one of his videos, according to the affidavit. “This is how I serve my country for real.”

Outside of the income he received through content creation, Mr. Derrick did not have any known employment. He did receive a monthly disability check from Veterans Affairs, the affidavit stated.

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The Girls: “This isn’t ringing alarms to y’all?” : Embedded

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The Girls: “This isn’t ringing alarms to y’all?” : Embedded
Allegations pile up, but Child Protective Services declines to investigate and the school district continues to promote Ronnie Stoner. We include an update at the end of the episode. “The Girls” is a 4-part series from the Louisville Public Media’s investigative podcast, Dig.
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Chud the Builder, Known for Racist Confrontations, Charged With Attempted Murder

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Chud the Builder, Known for Racist Confrontations, Charged With Attempted Murder

A streamer known for hurling racist slurs in public settings under the nickname “Chud the Builder” was charged with attempted murder after a shooting outside a Tennessee courthouse on Wednesday, the authorities said.

The streamer, Dalton Eatherly, 28, was involved in a confrontation with an unidentified man that escalated to gunfire outside the Montgomery County Court in Clarksville, about 50 miles northwest of Nashville, the Montgomery County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement. Both men sustained gunshot wounds and were in stable condition, the office said.

In addition to attempted murder, Mr. Eatherly was charged with employing a firearm during dangerous felony, aggravated assault and reckless endangerment with a deadly weapon, the sheriff’s office said.

Mr. Eatherly, who is white, has accumulated an online audience by livestreaming confrontations in which he uses racist language toward Black people in public.

Law enforcement did not provide any details about the second man involved in Wednesday’s shooting. Mr. Eatherly posted an audio recording online of paramedics treating his wounds in which he claims he shot the man in self-defense.

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A video posted by the website Clarksville Now shows Mr. Eatherly on a stretcher with a microphone attached to his lapel.

Mr. Eatherly is being held at the Montgomery County Jail, pending arraignment, the sheriff’s office said.

According to court records, Mr. Eatherly was scheduled to appear for a court hearing on Wednesday morning in an unrelated case brought by Midland Credit Management, a collections agency.

A lawyer listed in court records from a separate harassment case in which Mr. Eatherly was a defendant in November did not respond to a request for comment.

On Sunday, three days before the shooting in Clarksville, Mr. Eatherly was arrested in Nashville. According to a police affidavit, Mr. Eatherly live streamed his meal at a restaurant, Bob’s Steak and Chop House, on Saturday even though the restaurant had asked him ahead of time not to do so.

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When he was confronted, Mr. Eatherly “became disruptive and started making racial statements, yelling, screaming and otherwise creating a scene,” according to the affidavit.

He then refused to pay for his $370 meal. Mr. Eatherly was charged with theft of services, disorderly conduct and resisting arrest. He was released on $5,000 bond.

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