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UK recession could turn into a ‘lost decade’ | CNN Business

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UK recession could turn into a ‘lost decade’ | CNN Business


London
CNN Enterprise
 — 

The UK faces a “misplaced decade” of progress if motion isn’t taken to handle slumping enterprise funding and employee shortages, a number one enterprise foyer group has warned.

In a bleak financial forecast printed on Monday, the Confederation of British Business (CBI) mentioned that three quarters of corporations are struggling to seek out the abilities and staff they want. It urged modifications in authorities coverage, together with a extra versatile immigration system and tax breaks to spice up funding.

“Britain is in stagflation — with rocketing inflation, unfavorable progress, falling productiveness and enterprise funding. Companies see potential progress alternatives however an absence of ‘causes to imagine’ within the face of headwinds are inflicting them to pause investing in 2023,” CBI director common Tony Danker mentioned in a press release.

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“We are going to see a misplaced decade of progress if motion isn’t taken. GDP is an easy multiplier of two elements: individuals and their productiveness. However we don’t have individuals we want, nor the productiveness,” Danker added.

The UK is the one G7 financial system that also hasn’t recovered absolutely from the pandemic. Hovering vitality and meals prices drove inflation to a 41-year excessive in October. Widespread strikes have develop into the norm in latest months as staff really feel the sting of a worsening cost-of-living disaster.

UK staff suffered the largest drop of their spending energy in additional than 20 years between April and June as common actual wages — which take inflation under consideration — fell by 3%. The drop in actual wages was much less extreme within the third quarter however was nonetheless one of many largest since official data started in 2001.

In an indication of how disruptive strike motion has develop into, Conservative Occasion chairman Nadim Zahawi mentioned Sunday that the federal government is taking a look at bringing within the army to maintain public providers operating.

The outlook for the UK financial system subsequent yr is among the many weakest of the superior nations coated by the CBI forecast, with solely German GDP set to fall at a barely sooner tempo. Germany has felt the complete power of the vitality disaster unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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The CBI expects the UK financial system to shrink by 0.4% in 2023 — a major downgrade from the expansion of 1% it predicted in June. The financial system is forecast to recuperate to its pre-Covid measurement solely within the second quarter of 2024.

Inflation ought to fall step by step over the approaching yr, however it can stay considerably above the Financial institution of England’s 2% goal over 2023 and result in a year-long decline in shopper spending, the CBI forecast.

The group expects enterprise funding to fall from the center of subsequent yr, leaving it 9% under its pre-pandemic stage on the finish of 2024. Output per employee is predicted to stay 2% under its “already weak” pre-Covid development by that point, the CBI mentioned.

“Whereas it’s some comfort that the upcoming recession can be shallow, it’s regarding that longer-term weak point in productiveness and enterprise funding seems to be bedding in,” the CBI’s lead economist, Alpesh Paleja, mentioned in a press release. “It doesn’t bode effectively for dwelling requirements and the financial system’s capability to develop over the longer-term.”

The group mentioned the federal government ought to handle funding shortfalls with everlasting tax incentives, which it estimates will unlock an additional £50 billion ($61.4 billion) in capital funding per yr by the tip of the last decade.

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“We can’t afford to have one other decade the place each [investment and productivity] are stagnant,” Danker mentioned.

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Stick-Wielding Man Kills 2 Homeless People in Miami and Injures 2 Others

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Stick-Wielding Man Kills 2 Homeless People in Miami and Injures 2 Others

A man with a stick attacked four homeless people in downtown Miami early Thursday morning, killing two and injuring two others in what the police called a horrible “display of unprovoked violence.”

The man was seen attacking the people with a stick at 6 a.m., the Miami Police Department said in a statement. The police responded soon after calls came in and saw a man who matched the description that had been given. He ran off but was arrested after a brief foot chase, the police said.

Two of the homeless people died at the scene of the attack. The two people who were injured were taken to a nearby trauma center for treatment, the police said. Their conditions were not available.

The authorities did not immediately release the name of the man who was arrested, who is in his 30s. They said that they would disclose his identity and the charges he faces once the charges had been confirmed. The motive for the attack was not immediately clear, the police said.

The suspect does not have an arrest history in Miami, but he has had “minor criminal run-ins with the police” in New York, Manuel A. Morales, the chief of police for the Miami Police Department, said at a news conference on Thursday. The man’s place of residence was not immediately clear.

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“This is a horrible incident,” Chief Morales said.

The Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust, the county’s leading homeless outreach group, said in a statement that it was grieving the “senseless loss of these lives.” and thanked the police for their swift response.

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks about combining their businesses

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks about combining their businesses

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks last year about combining part or all of their businesses, in an indication of how the push by mining companies to secure metals needed for the energy transition has focused executives on large-scale deals.

The London-listed companies engaged in early-stage talks as recently as October, according to people familiar with the matter, but the discussions did not progress to a deal.

A full-blown merger between Rio and Glencore — which have market capitalisations of $103bn and $55bn, respectively — would rank among the largest-ever transactions in the mining industry.

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The talks between the two companies followed BHP’s failed £39bn bid for Anglo American last year, which prompted rivals to review strategic options.

BHP was interested in Anglo’s copper mines, among other assets, because the metal is used in renewable energy projects and electric vehicles.

Glencore and Rio declined to comment. Bloomberg first reported the companies had discussed combining their businesses.

Rio has been looking to boost its exposure to commodities including lithium and copper to offset weakness in the iron ore market as demand from China slows.

Glencore owns stakes in two significant copper mines — Collahuasi in Chile and Antamina in Peru — that would boost its production of the metal by almost 1mn tonnes a year and offer substantial expansion capacity, according to analysts.

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A potential deal with Glencore would be complicated by the Swiss-based company’s heavy exposure to thermal coal, a commodity Rio has abandoned in recent years.

Matthew Haupt, a portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management, which owns shares in Rio, said the deal “didn’t make a lot of sense” given Rio’s efforts to get out of coal and invest in renewable energy to power its operations.

Glencore, which has a large commodity trading business and mining operations, has been debating the future of its coal business.

The company said in 2023 it would spin out its coal mines into a separate listed business but changed its mind last year and decided to retain them. 

Glyn Lawcock, an analyst with investment bank Barrenjoey, said coal assets could be spun out as a separate company as part of any agreement. He added there was little overlap between the two companies, meaning there were few synergy benefits from a merger and a deal would need to be justified by asset diversification and creating more scale.

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Ray David, a portfolio manager at Blackwattle Investment Partners, which owns Rio’s UK-listed shares, said Rio could fund an acquisition of Glencore by issuing shares in Australia, which would rebalance Rio’s share structure and close the value gap between its Australian and London listings.

Activist investors, including Blackwattle, have urged Rio to move its primary listing to Sydney — where its stock trades at a premium — to simplify share-based deals.

Rio’s Australia-quoted shares fell 1.8 per cent in early trading in Sydney on Friday, before climbing back to be down 0.5 per cent.

Demand for commodities required to decarbonise the global economy — such as copper, lithium and aluminium — has triggered a flurry of dealmaking activity in the mining industry over the past year.

Rio last year announced a $7bn deal to acquire Arcadium Lithium to increases its presence in metals used in batteries for electric vehicles. People close to the company said it was still digesting that transaction. 

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Rio previously rejected a takeover bid by Glencore in 2014.

Lawcock said the reaction from some Rio investors in Australia was one of unease given Glencore’s reputation for smart dealmaking.

“Shareholders have said I don’t want any of my companies sitting across the table from Glencore,” he said.

Blackwattle’s David said the fact talks had ended showed Rio remained cautious in a consolidating market.

“I suspect Glencore wants a high premium,” he said. “It is a positive sign [that talks ceased] as it shows Rio is being disciplined and aware of not destroying shareholder value. It would be easy to panic.”

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ICE estimates it would need $26.9 billion to enforce GOP deportation bill

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ICE estimates it would need .9 billion to enforce GOP deportation bill

Detainees do a virtual visit with their attorneys or asylum officers at the Port Isabel Detention Center hosted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Harlingen Enforcement and Removal Operations center on June 10, 2024 in Los Fresnos, Texas.

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The Homeland Security Department is warning lawmakers in Congress that a proposed immigration enforcement bill would cost $26.9 billion to implement in its first year and “would be impossible for [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to execute within existing resources.”

The Senate is currently weighing amendments on the Laken Riley Act, which would direct federal immigration enforcement to detain and deport anyone in the U.S. without legal status if they have been charged, arrested or convicted of burglary, theft, larceny or shoplifting.

The bill passed the House last week with more Democratic support than the previous time the body voted on it. The bill has been broadly seen as a marker emphasizing Washington’s focus on immigration and border security as President-elect Donald Trump is about to be inaugurated.

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Some Senate Democrats are giving the measure a chance. This week, a bipartisan set of procedural votes opened up the measure to further debate and changes.

But the agency in charge of carrying out the potential new law warns that it may physically not be able to.

New estimates from an internal ICE document obtained and verified by NPR show that the agency would need 110,000 more detention beds and over 10,000 enforcement and removal operations personnel to increase apprehensions, detentions and removals. More than 7,000 additional attorneys and support personnel would also be needed to handle immigration proceedings, according to the estimates.

The document notes that a figure of $3.2 billion “has been shared widely as a cost estimate,” but calls that number incorrect because it “does not represent the full cost of implementation.” The document says the previous estimate — outlined in a three-page memo from ICE sent in response to questions from one of the bill’s House sponsors — was based “on only 60,000 beds.”

Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who introduced the measure in the Senate, did not respond to a request for comment. The measure that passed in the House does not include funding for additional ICE staff or resources. ICE declined to comment on its ability to enforce the bill.

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Senate Democrats and Republicans are working through several proposed amendments to the measure. There is not a timeline yet for a final floor vote.

The bill is named after a Georgia nursing student who was killed last year by a Venezuelan man who was in the U.S. without legal status. Her death became a rallying cry for Republicans, who criticized the Biden administration’s approach to border security. Her assailant, Jose Ibarra, was convicted in November and sentenced to life in prison without parole. Ibarra had previously been charged with shoplifting in New York, leading Republicans to argue that if the law had been in place, Riley may still be alive.

The bill’s critics have said it could lead to innocent people being thrown into detention without due process, and note that research shows that immigrants commit less crimes than those born in the U.S.

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