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Will Ichiro Suzuki be the baseball Hall of Fame’s second unanimous selection?

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Will Ichiro Suzuki be the baseball Hall of Fame’s second unanimous selection?

Could Ichiro Suzuki become the second-ever player unanimously voted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum? Will Billy Wagner pick up the five votes he missed last year to gain entry in his final year of eligibility? Will CC Sabathia make it to Cooperstown on his first try?

Heading into the Jan. 21 announcement of the Hall of Fame voting results, all three scenarios are on the table.

The voting is conducted by the nearly 400 eligible voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America; all of the 151 ballots logged on Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame tracker as of Tuesday afternoon have the box next to Suzuki’s name checked.

To this point, only famed Yankee closer Mariano Rivera has been elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously — not Babe Ruth, not Hank Aaron, not Ken Griffey Jr. nor Derek Jeter, just Rivera. Could Suzuki be the second?

Thibodaux said he doesn’t expect an answer to that until after the results are official.

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“We haven’t seen him left off of any ballots yet and my guess is we won’t see one up until the results are announced,” Thibodaux said in a direct message on Bluesky earlier this week. “If anyone left him off, we likely won’t find out until after, if at all.”

Jeter was left off one ballot in 2020 and Griffey three in 2016.

Voters are not required to make their ballots public, but the Hall of Fame does allow voters to check a box on the ballot to release their selections following the announcement of the voting. Last year, a total of 385 ballots were returned, with 306 voters choosing to make their ballot public. Neither the voter who passed over Jeter in 2020 nor the three who left Griffey off their ballots in 2016 have been revealed.

Suzuki is not the only candidate trending towards induction. Sabathia is on 140, or 92.7 percent, which bodes well for the first-year nominee.

“I’ll admit to being a bit surprised at the strength of CC’s support so far. I had him eyeballed as perhaps a 75 percent bubble candidate, but he’s breezed along so far and has comfortably been in the low 90s for most of ballot season,” Thibodaux wrote. “Unless the late public and private voters have a wildly different evaluation of Sabathia’s credentials, it looks like he’ll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.”

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FanGraphs’s Jay Jaffe, author of “The Cooperstown Casebook,” said he’s been surprised by Sabathia’s showing in his first year on the ballot.

“I thought he was going to be somebody who would squeak in like (Joe) Mauer did last year,” said Jaffe, who created the Jaffe War Score system (JAWS) that is commonly referenced by Hall of Fame voters to help put candidates into historical perspective. “I don’t expect him to stay at 92 percent or even 90 percent, but I think something upwards of 80 percent is very likely.”

Wagner is on the ballot for the 10th and final time. After just missing the 75 percent mark a year ago, he’s trending steadily toward induction. As of Tuesday afternoon, he was at 84.1 percent on the public ballots.

It’s not just the raw numbers that are in Wagner’s favor; the trends are behind him, as well. After just missing out, he’s been added to eight ballots that didn’t include him last year and of the 141 public votes submitted, none who checked his name last year haven’t selected him this year. Another eight first-time voters have voted for Wagner, as well.

“There are still more first-time voters out there and he’ll need to maintain solid support from that group,” Thibodaux wrote. “There are also likely several dozen voters who aged out of the electorate this year. If he happened to have extremely strong support among them, then there still may be work to do to get him over the finish line.”

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Carlos Beltrán was at 79.5 percent of the vote as of Tuesday afternoon and Andruw Jones was just below the threshold at 74.2 percent. According to Thibodaux, last year those who made their ballots public before the announcement averaged 7.55 votes per ballot. Voters who waited until after the announcement averaged 6.77 votes per ballot and private ballots averaged 5.8 names. Thibodaux, who began tracking balloting in 2012, said those trends have been steady through the years.

The current voting totals are not encouraging for Beltrán or Jones in relation to their 2025 hopes, but it is a positive for eventual induction. Next year’s first-year eligible class doesn’t have any players who have a career bWAR of 60 or more, such as Suzuki (60) and Sabathia (62.3). The top first-year players on next year’s ballot are Cole Hamels (59 bWAR) and Ryan Braun (47.1 bWAR).

Jaffe said the strength of Sabathia’s support bodes well for the future of not just Sabathia, but also Andy Pettitte, Félix Hernández, Mark Buehrle and Hamels.

“Andy Pettitte and Félix Hernández are almost diametrically opposed in terms of how they’ve gotten to this point, Pettitte with a very workmanlike career and a huge volume of postseason work that was very important in helping teams get to and win the World Series,” Jaffe said. “Félix had a very high peak and a lack of longevity, early burnout and no postseason experience.”

Pettitte, on the ballot for the seventh time, was at 31.8 percent as of Tuesday afternoon. Last year, Pettitte received 52 (13.5 percent) votes and this year he is already marked on 48 ballots, indicating a significant jump. Hernández, in his first year on the ballot, was on 25.2 percent of the votes revealed by Tuesday afternoon.

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While the focus on voting is always on the 75 percent line needed for induction, the other marker to watch is the 5 percent needed to stay on the ballot.

Of the 14 names on the ballot for the first time, seven had not received a public vote as of Tuesday morning. Of the remaining seven first-year eligible players, only Suzuki, Sabathia, Hernández and Dustin Pedroia (12.6 percent) have received the necessary five percent to stay on the ballot.

That means 10 players are in danger of falling off the ballot, including a pair of catchers in Russell Martin (4.6 percent) and Brian McCann (4 percent) who would fall off the ballot after just their first year. Also facing the possibility of not receiving 5 percent are Torii Hunter (1.3 percent), who is on the ballot for the fifth time, and Francisco Rodríguez (7.9 percent), who is on the ballot for the third year. Mark Buehrle, on his fifth ballot, has 19 votes as of Tuesday morning, which will be enough to keep him on the ballot another year as long as no more than 380 ballots are returned. One more vote for Buehrle between Tuesday afternoon and next week’s announcement would guarantee the longtime Chicago White Sox starter a spot on next year’s ballot.

(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

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Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas


Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.

Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.

Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.

At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.

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Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.

Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.

But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.

Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)

Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.

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Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.

And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.

The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.

Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.

And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.

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Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35

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Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child

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Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child

We often think of the past as if it were another world — and in some ways, it is. The politics, religion and social customs of other eras can be vastly different from our own. But one thing historians and historical fiction writers alike often notice is the constancy of human emotion. The righteous anger of a customer complaining about a Mesopotamian copper merchant in 1750 B.C. feels familiar. Tributes to beloved household pets from ancient Romans and Egyptians make us smile. And we are captivated by stories of love, betrayal and sacrifice from Homer to Shakespeare and beyond.

In literature, letters, tablets and even on coins, we find overwhelming evidence that people in the past felt the same emotions we do. Love, hate, fear, grief, joy: These feelings were as much a part of their lives as they are of our own. And they resonate especially acutely in the bond between mother and child. Here are eight historical novels that explore the meaning of motherhood across the centuries.

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How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life

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How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life

Sometime in the 2000s, the producer Lindsay Doran asked her doctor for a book recommendation. “I’m reading that book everybody’s reading,” the doctor replied. “You know, the one about the shepherd who’s murdered and the sheep solve the crime.”

Doran had not heard of the book, “Three Bags Full,” a best-selling novel by a German graduate student (“No one’s reading it,” she recalls responding, inaccurately), but she was struck by what sounded like an irresistible elevator pitch. “Everything came together for me in that one sentence,” she said. “The fact that it was sheep rather than some other animal felt so resonant.”

Doran spent years trying to extricate the book from a complicated rights situation, and years more turning it into a movie. The result, opening Friday, is “The Sheep Detectives,” which features Nicholas Braun and Emma Thompson as humans, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Patrick Stewart and others giving voice to C.G.I. sheep stirred from their customary ruminations by the death of their shepherd, George (Hugh Jackman).

The film, rated PG, is an Agatha Christie-lite mystery with eccentric suspects, a comically bumbling cop (Braun) and a passel of ovine investigators. It’s also a coming-of-age story about growing up and losing your innocence that might have a “Bambi”-like resonance for children. The movie’s sheep have a way of erasing unpleasant things from their minds — they believe, for instance, that instead of dying, they just turn into clouds — but learn that death is an inextricable part of life.

“In some ways, the most important character is Mopple, the sheep played by Chris O’Dowd,” the screenwriter, Craig Mazin, said in a video interview. “He has a defect — he does not know how to forget — and he’s been carrying his memories all alone.”

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“Three Bags Full” is an adult novel that includes grown-up themes like drugs and suicide. In adapting it for a younger audience, Mazin toned down its darker elements, changed its ending, and — for help in writing about death — consulted a book by Fred Rogers, TV’s Mister Rogers, about how to talk to children about difficult subjects.

The journey from book to film has been long and circuitous. “Three Bags Full” was written by Leonie Swann, then a 20-something German doctoral student studying English literature. Distracting herself from her unwritten dissertation, on the topic of “the animal point of view in fiction,” she began a short story “playing around with the idea of sheep detectives,” she said. “And I realized it was more like a novel, and it wasn’t the worst novel I’d ever seen.”

Why sheep? “I wasn’t someone who was thinking about sheep all the time,” Swann, who lives in the English countryside and has a dog named Ezra Hound, said in a video interview. Yet they have always hovered on the periphery of her life.

There was a friendly sheep that she used to see on her way to school. There was an irate ram that once chased her through the streets of a Bavarian village. And there were thousands and thousands of sheep in the fields of Ireland, where she lived for a time. “There were so many of them, and you could tell there was a lot of personality behind them,” she said.

A book in which sheep are stirred to action had to be a mystery, she said, to motivate the main characters. “In a lot of other stories, you would have trouble making a sheep realize there’s a story there,” she said. “They would just keep grazing. But murder is an existential problem that speaks to sheep as well as humans.”

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Swann (the name is a pseudonym; she has never publicly disclosed her real name) found a literary agent, Astrid Poppenhusen, who brought her manuscript to market. Published in 2005, the book was translated into 30 languages and ended up spending three and a half years on German best-seller lists. (The German title is “Glennkill,” after the village in which it takes place.) Other novels followed, including a sheep-centric sequel, “Big Bad Wool,” but Swann never finished her dissertation.

Doran, the producer, read the book — now published in the United States by Soho Press, along with four other Swann novels — soon after hearing about it. She was determined to make it into a movie. Whenever she told anyone about the idea, she said, she had them at “sheep.”

The director, Kyle Balda (whose credits include “Minions”), was so excited when he first read the script, in 2022, that “I immediately drove out to a sheep farm” near his house in Oregon, he said in a video interview. “Very instantly I could see the behavior of the sheep, their different personalities. I learned very quickly that there are more varieties of sheep than dogs.”

How to make the sheep look realistic, and how to strike the proper balance between their inherent sheep-iness and their human-esque emotions were important questions the filmmakers grappled with.

It was essential that “the sheep in this world are sheep” rather than humans in sheep’s clothing, Balda said. “It’s not the kind of story where they are partnered with humans and talking to each other.”

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That means that like real sheep, the movie sheep have short attention spans. They’re afraid to cross the road. “They don’t drive cars; they don’t wear pants; they’re not joke characters saying things like, ‘This grass would taste better with a little ranch dressing,’” Doran said.

And whenever they speak, their words register to humans as bleating, the way the adult speech in “Peanuts” cartoons sounds like trombone-y gibberish to Charlie Brown and his friends.

Lily, the leader of the flock, is played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. It is not her first time voicing an animal in a movie: She has played, among other creatures, an ant in “A Bug’s Life” and a horse in “Animal Farm.” “When I read the script, I thought, ‘Wow, this is so weird,’” she said in a video interview. “It’s not derivative of anything else.”

Lily is unquestionably not a person; among other things, like a real sheep, she has a relatively immobile face set off by lively ears. “But her journey is a human journey where she realizes certain things about life she didn’t understand,” Louis-Dreyfus said. “There’s also the question of being a leader, and how to do that when you’re questioning your own point of view.”

Nicholas Braun took easily to the role of Officer Tim, the inept constable charged with solving the shepherd’s murder.

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“The part was a little Greg-adjacent in the beginning, and I don’t really want to play too many Gregs,” Braun said via video, referring to Cousin Greg, his hapless punching bag of a character in the TV drama “Succession.”

“I’m post-Greg,” he said.

It takes Officer Tim some time to notice that the neighborhood sheep might be actively helping him tackle the case. But Braun said that unlike Greg, who is stuck in perpetual ineptitude, Tim gets to grow into a braver and more assertive person, a take-charge romantic hero — much the way the sheep are forced into action from their default position of “just forgetting about it and moving on and going back to eating grass,” he said.

Braun mused for a bit about other potential animal detectives — horses, say, or cows — but concluded that the sheep in the film were just right for the job. He predicted that the movie would change people’s perception of sheep, much the way “Toy Story” made them “look at their toys, or their kids’ toys, differently.”

“I don’t think people are going to be eating as much lamb after this,” he said.,

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