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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Get out your glad rags because it’s time for the rich and powerful to show off in front of the cameras. Yes, New York is hosting the annual Met Gala and the theme is Sleeping Beauties: Reawakening Fashion. Will Elon Musk turn up again looking like an awkward teenager in his white tie and tails? For more details, read the excellent Fashion Matters newsletter. FT subscribers can sign up here.

China’s President Xi Jinping may well be hoping that a bit of French fashion chic will rub off on him as he arrives in Paris for the first of several European state visits this week. Monday will be the key meeting with both French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen. Xi will then travel to Serbia and Hungary.

This week’s newsworthy rate setters are the Bank of England and, to a lesser extent, the Reserve Bank of Australia. Neither is expected to move rates, but watch out for signals that cuts are coming soon. UK watchers will be looking out for the first stab at first-quarter GDP numbers on Friday, expected to confirm the general perception of an economy at best only able to produce sluggish growth. Elsewhere, China looks to trade and Germany to factory orders.

It’s a delayed start to the week for the financial markets in London, Tokyo and Seoul due to the May Day and Children’s Day public holidays, but still a fairly busy week for corporate news. Media is a strong theme for this week’s results, with Disney, Fox, Warner Bros Discovery and (big for the UK) ITV all reporting. Also, on Tuesday, BP reports first-quarter numbers, with analysts expecting strong growth in gas trading but weaker fuel margins. Will there be any more changes to the senior management team in the wake of the Bernard Looney scandal?

One more thing . . . 

This is a bumper week for British anniversaries. Monday not only marks a year since King Charles III was crowned at Westminster Abbey (and he now has a pretty scroll to prove it), but is the 30th anniversary of the Channel Tunnel’s formal opening and the 70th of Roger Bannister breaking the four-minute mile.

Before the week is out, it will also be another significant anniversary (at least to me): my birth. This will be celebrated by my finally getting to see Nye at London’s National Theatre (as endorsed by my employer) with supper at the (equally eagerly anticipated) theatre restaurant Lasdun. If you don’t believe me on that last point, read this persuasive review from the world’s most eloquent food critic (IMHO) Tim Hayward.

How do you intend to spend the week ahead, and what are your priorities? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China, EU, France, Germany, India: Caixin/HCOB/HSBC April services purchasing managers’ survey (PMI) data

• Japan/South Korea: Children’s Day. Financial markets closed

• UK/Ireland: May Day bank holiday. Financial markets closed

• Results: BioNTech Q1, Tyson Foods Q2, Westpac HY

Tuesday

• Apple hosts a product launch event called Let Loose with the usual secrecy around the device being unveiled, though many expect a new iPad tablet

• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision

• Germany: March industrial orders and foreign trade figures

• Japan: April services PMI data

• UK: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor and Halifax House Price index

• Results: Adecco Q1, ANZ HY, Bouygues Q1, BP Q1, Deutsche Post Q1, Electronic Arts Q4, Geberit Q1, Heidelberg Materials Q1, IAC Q1, Infineon Technologies Q2, IWG Q1, Kenvue Q1, Lyft Q1, Nintendo FY, Reddit Q1, Ricoh FY, Saudi Aramco Q1, UBS Q1, UniCredit Q1, Walt Disney Co Q2

Wednesday

• US Federal Reserve’s Exploring Careers in Economics event in Washington. Speakers include Fed board vice-chair Philip Jefferson

• Brazil: Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) rate-setting decision announced

• Germany: March industrial production

• Results: Ahold Delhaize Q1, Airbnb Q1, Alliance Pharma FY, Alstom FY, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q1, Bertelsmann Q1, Boohoo FY, BMW Q1, Continental Q1, Fox Corp Q3, Henkel Q1, Itochu FY, Match Q1, OSB Q1 trading update, Puma Q1, Renishaw trading update, Skanska Q1, Toyota FY, Tripadvisor Q1, Uber Q1, Wetherspoon trading update

Thursday

• China: April trade balance figures

• Russia: Victory Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision. Later, the bank will host a virtual Q&A with its chief economist Huw Pill on its latest Monetary Policy Report. Register here. Also, Rics Residential Market Survey and REC-KPMG Jobs Report

• Results: 3i FY, Asahi Kasei FY, Balfour Beatty AGM trading update, Enel Q1, Ferrovial Q1, ITV Q1 trading update, Nikon FY, Nippon Steel FY, Nissan FY, Panasonic FY, Telefónica Q1, Warner Bros Discovery Q1, Wood Q1 trading update and AGM

Friday

• Indonesia: Ascension of Jesus Christ holiday. Financial markets closed

• Eurozone: European Central Bank publishes its last monetary policy meeting minutes

• Japan: March trade balance figures

• UK: preliminary Q1 GDP estimate

• US: University of Michigan May consumer sentiment survey

• Results: CRH Q1, Honda FY, KDDI FY, IAG Q1, Iveco Q1, Mazda FY, NTT FY, Tata Motors FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Chad: presidential election first round, with a run-off vote on June 22 if required, the result of constitutional changes approved in a referendum last year

• France: Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Paris where he will meet French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen for a state visit

• Israel: Holocaust Martyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day aka Yom HaShoah.

• Panama: winner in the presidential election expected to be announced, after one of the most unusual campaigns since democracy was restored after a US invasion in 1989

• UK: deadline for candidates to register in the Scottish National party’s leadership contest following the chaotic departure of Humza Yousaf

• US: 108th annual Pulitzer Prize winners and nominated finalists announced online for prizes in journalism, drama, letters and music. Separately, the Costume Institute Benefit, aka the Met Gala, is held in New York. Here are what attendees wore last year to the fashion industry’s big night out

Tuesday

Wednesday

• North Macedonia: parliamentary elections and presidential election run-off

• UK: Prince Harry attends the Invictus Games 10th anniversary service at St Paul’s Cathedral in London

Thursday

• EU: Europe Day, marking the 1960 declaration issued by Robert Schuman proposing a European continent united in solidarity

• Russia: military parade in Red Square, Moscow, to mark the second world war victory day

• UK: City of London Corporation’s Easter Banquet for the Diplomatic Corps, with a speech by foreign secretary Lord David Cameron

Friday

• Iran: parliamentary election run-off

• UK: Christopher Berry and Christopher Cash appear in court in London accused of spying for China

Saturday

• Sweden: Eurovision Song Contest, hosted by last year’s winning nation

• US: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stages a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey

Sunday

• Lithuania: presidential election

• Spain: Catalonia regional parliamentary elections

• UK: Bafta TV Awards held at London’s Royal Festival Hall

The family of a 26-year-old Louisiana man who has brain damage after a friend allegedly pushed him into a lake despite him being unable to swim is calling on authorities to deliver them justice.

Christopher Gilbert’s family’s pleas came after he nearly drowned on 14 April while at a lakefront restaurant by Lake D’Arbonne in the northern Louisiana town of Farmerville.

Speaking to the local news station KSLA, Gilbert’s mother Yolanda George said: “A friend of his called. She was hysterical, crying on the phone. She told me that Chris had [fallen] into the lake, and he had been underwater for 20 minutes or so.”

George said her son – an aspiring medical doctor – was rescued and taken to a nearby hospital. She added: “The doctor called us in and told me that at that time, he was brain-dead, pretty much, and the rest of his organs were starting to fail, and that we had 72 hours on” life support, though Gilbert later regained consciousness and the ability to eat on his own.

An attorney for Gilbert’s family, Claudia Payne, told KSLA that the friend group initially told police that he had fallen into the lake. But further investigation, he said, found that a female friend had pushed him into the water.

“She actually admitted to [Gilbert’s] mom – as well as the police officers – that she pushed him into the lake,” Payne said. “In the legal field, we categorize things the way we see fit, so of course they are saying horseplay. We are saying that it was a criminal intentional push into the lake.”

She added that one of the friends from the group attempted to pull Gilbert out, but it was ultimately a restaurant customer who rescued him.

Describing her reaction upon seeing her son for the first time at the hospital, George said: “I was devastated. I felt like my life had ended in that moment.

“My son is aspiring to be a medical doctor – my son is going to be a medical doctor. He got his master’s last year in biological science. He’s preparing for medical school so for this to have happened to him … I was just devastated.”

George recalled the conversation she had with the friend who pushed Gilbert into the lake. She remembered asking, “Why would you push my son in the lake, knowing he couldn’t swim?”

In response, the friend reportedly said: “Well ma’am, I didn’t know that man couldn’t swim.”

Gilbert replied: “Who is ‘that man?’ This is supposed to be amongst a group of friends. Who is ‘that man?’ Chris? Everybody knows he can’t swim.

“Even when we went to the restaurant, the owner of the restaurant even stated, ‘Everybody knows Chris can’t swim.’ He’s been coming here for two years. He’s always joking about it.”

According to Payne, Gilbert’s family wants police to arrest the person who allegedly pushed him into the lake. They are also seeking for the restaurant owner to be held liable for not keeping Chris safe as a patron of the establishment.

A change.org supporting the Gilbert family’s wishes had collected more than 2,600 signatures as of Sunday.

Gilbert had woken up as of Friday, was able to eat on his own and had been temporarily taken off life support, KNOE reported.

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Donald Trump has a small polling lead over Joe Biden in the critical swing states with six months to go before US voters elect their next president on November 5.

It marks a stunning reversal for Trump, who exited the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 per cent after a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6 in a bid to overturn his electoral loss.

More registered voters now view Biden’s presidency to be a failure compared with Trump’s, according to a recent CNN poll — 55 per cent of US respondents said Trump’s presidency was a success compared with 39 per cent for Biden.

Biden’s approval rating has dropped by 19 percentage points since the start of his presidency, to 35 per cent in April, according to Pew Research.

Still, the 2024 election looks to be an exceptionally close rematch of the 2020 race, when just 43,000 votes out of 155mn cast delivered victory for Biden. 

With six months to go, here is where the race stands.

What are the polls saying right now?

National polling has been tight. Trump and Biden are both polling just above 40 per cent, with Trump currently holding a slender edge of 0.8 percentage points, well within bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. The independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr has been polling at about 10 per cent, though support for such candidates tends to be higher in pre-election polling than in actual elections.

But US presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Rather they are decided by winner-takes-all contests in the 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. Whichever candidate secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

In seven crucial “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump leads Biden by between one and six points.

What are the issues that will decide the election — and who’s leading on them?

The top priority for US voters remains the economy — an issue that has boosted Trump against Biden. 

Overall, 41 per cent of voters trust Trump with the economy, compared with just 35 per cent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.

A recent CNN poll found that 65 per cent of registered voters called the economy “extremely” important to their vote — higher than any other issue — and near levels not seen since October 2008.

While inflation has certainly hurt Biden, political views of the economy also play a role. Of those who said the economy was “poor”, 41 per cent said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37 per cent said lower inflation and 14 per cent said better personal finances.

Other top issues include immigration — where polling suggests voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — and protecting democracy, preserving abortion rights and lowering healthcare costs. Biden is stronger on the last three.

Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the US is spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polling. This could help Trump.

Though Trump has not said that he will cut funding for either country, the former president has made clear that he expects other countries in Europe to step up their defence spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.

Perhaps even more important than the issues is how voters view Biden and Trump as people. 

A majority of voters say Trump, 77, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62 per cent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden is mentally up to the job, compared with 59 per cent who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.

Trump is facing four criminal indictments, including federal and state charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. A majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in the four cases, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll. And 24 per cent of registered voters who support Trump say that if the former president is convicted, they might reconsider, according to a CNN poll.

Who’s got more money and where is it being spent?

Biden has massively outraised Trump in the money race, leaving Biden groups with $66mn more on hand than Trump groups by the end of March.

Trump’s coffers have been drained by his legal fees. His donors have paid $76mn on Trump’s lawyers since January 2023 — 26 per cent of the total raised for the ex-president.

Biden’s campaign has already spent more than $39mn on ads this year, according to AdImpact, compared with $25mn for Trump. But much of Trump’s ad spend went towards the presidential primary, as he fought off well-funded Republican challengers, including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Future Forward Pac, a pro-Biden super Pac that can raise unlimited sums, has already booked $130mn in ads beginning in September, targeting the seven swing states and Nebraska’s one electoral vote in Omaha.