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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll

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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll

The race for president has shifted in Donald Trump’s direction following the first 2024 presidential debate.  Trump now has a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally.

A big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now. 

Perhaps befitting a race with two well-known candidates and a heavily partisan electorate, over 90% of both Mr. Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say they would never even consider the other candidate, as was the case before the debate, which helps explain why the race has been fairly stable for months. Recall that Mr. Biden had gained a bit back in June, after Trump was convicted of felonies in New York, but that didn’t dramatically alter the race either. 

That said, the preference contest today does imply an Electoral College advantage for Trump. 

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Meanwhile, half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters don’t think he should be running this year — and when they don’t think so, they are less likely to say they’ll turn out in 2024, and also more likely to pick someone else, either Trump or a third-party candidate.

Trump, for his part, finds most Republicans feeling bolstered after the debate, saying it made them more likely to vote. And independents remain tightly contested, with Trump narrowly edging up with them now.

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Nationwide, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024. And Republicans currently have a similarly sized turnout advantage across the battleground states, undergirding Trump’s edge with likely voters there.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national ballot test, Trump’s national edge over Mr. Biden expands to four points. Kennedy draws roughly equally from both candidates, but Mr. Biden cedes a little more to Stein and West, bringing down his overall percentage. 

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For many voters, both candidates’ ages are a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. When people see an equivalence there, Mr. Biden benefits: he leads Trump among those who say both.

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The trouble for Mr. Biden is that he trails badly among those for whom only his age is a factor. 

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Immediately following the debate, CBS News’ polling showed increasing numbers of voters believing Mr. Biden did not have the cognitive health for the job and that he should not be running. A large seven in 10 still say he should not be running. (It’s three points fewer now than immediately after the debate, perhaps because the Biden campaign pushed back on the idea, but remains the dominant view among voters, and of a sizable four-in-10 share of Democrats.)

Mr. Biden did not gain any ground on Trump on a number of personal qualities: Trump leads Mr. Biden on being seen as competent, tough, and focused. The president continues to be seen as more compassionate.

CBS News considers the battlegrounds as the states most likely to decide the election in the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide interviewed between June 28-July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battlegrounds are  AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI. 

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Trump’s crypto embrace overshadows new EU digital assets rules

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Trump’s crypto embrace overshadows new EU digital assets rules

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Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies risks undermining Europe’s incoming rules on digital assets as companies overlook the continent in favour of a friendlier US market, industry executives have warned.

Companies such as Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, have indicated they will look to refocus their attention on the US after Trump promised to make the country “the crypto capital of the planet”.

Top executives and analysts say a crypto-friendly White House will exert a strong pull that compares favourably to the European Union’s new landmark rules, which come into force from December 30.

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The bloc’s rules, known as the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), will set guardrails for the public following the collapse of companies like exchange FTX and lenders including Genesis and Celsius. The standards have in the past been praised by the industry as a potential benchmark for global crypto asset regulation.

“In the previous US administration . . . MiCA certainly seemed like it was a good way of trying to think about the crypto industry without completely killing off innovation,” said Eswar Prasad, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. 

But in the wake of Trump’s win, “we’re going to see a migration of crypto-related activities away from Europe in any form because things are going to be much easier in the US,” he added. “[MiCA] is going to be seen as very stringent.”

Trump’s victory has helped propel bitcoin to a record high of $108,000 this year, more than double its price a year ago. Retail and institutional investors have warmed to Trump’s pledge that he will end the US’s tough regulatory crackdown of recent years.

He has also nominated Paul Atkins, a crypto advocate, to head the Securities and Exchange Commission, and appointed David Sacks, a venture capitalist, to advise the president on crypto and AI policy. “We’re going to do something great with crypto,” he said last week.

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The EU’s MiCA rules will regulate the issuance of crypto coins including stablecoins, as well as digital asset services like custody and trading by demanding that companies providing those services are authorised in the EU.

Yulia Makarova, special counsel at law firm Cooley, said complying with MiCA “increases the costs for start-up firms” in particular. “Ongoing compliance costs can be such that the business gets to the brink of viability,” she added, warning that crypto start-ups may choose to launch in the US rather than the EU.

Some companies, such as US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and Circle, operator of the stablecoin USDC, have secured their EU licences. However others, such as Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin, will not be compliant with the new rules and are being delisted by local regulated exchanges.

“The new administration might take a bit of shine and a bit of edge off MiCA,” said Denzel Walters, head of Luxembourg at market maker B2C2. “But I still think MiCA here presents a really great opportunity for the digital assets market,” he added.

Executives are betting that Trump, as well as a new cohort of pro-crypto politicians in Washington, will also make headway with new legislation for crypto assets, which will in turn pave the way for traditional financial institutions to plough money into crypto.

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Already, crypto companies that dropped US services for fear of being hit by regulators, or were banned, are planning to return. “We are closer than ever to restoring US dollar services and our plan is to achieve this important milestone in early 2025,” said Norman Reed, interim chief executive of crypto exchange Binance US. “It is not a matter of if, but when,” he added.

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Bird flu has killed 20 big cats including cougars at a U.S. wildlife sanctuary

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Bird flu has killed 20 big cats including cougars at a U.S. wildlife sanctuary

A cougar is seen in a forest in autumn. The Wild Felid Advocacy Center of Washington says bird flu has killed 20 of its big cats, including cougars, in the past month.

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An animal sanctuary in Shelton, Wash., is under quarantine after a bird flu outbreak killed 20 big cats at the facility over the past month.

The Wild Felid Advocacy Center of Washington called the deaths “heartbreaking,” confirming the virus has claimed more than half its animals, including four cougars and a half-Bengal tiger, since late November.

“Our sanctuary is under quarantine to protect our remaining animals and prevent further spread,” the center said in a statement, adding it will remain closed to the public until further notice.

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The sanctuary said the outbreak may have been caused by respiratory secretions passed from infected birds to the cats or by contaminated meat fed to the cats. It said bird flu poses a serious risk to felines, often progressing from mild symptoms to fatal pneumonia within 24 hours.

The first cat, a cougar, died on Nov. 23 after showing signs of the illness. The virus then quickly sickened many other animals across the sanctuary. While some of the cats shared a wall between their habitats, they did not have direct contact.

The sanctuary’s 17 surviving animals — cougars, bobcats, servals, and tigers — remain under close observation.

In response, the sanctuary removed 8,000 pounds of food from storage and began deep cleaning, but the nonprofit says the measures have strained its finances. “The mounting medical costs, even at discounted rates, are significant,” it said, appealing for donations to cover expenses.

The outbreak comes amid rising concerns over bird flu in the U.S.

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Earlier this month, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency due to its spread among dairy cattle, and outbreaks have been reported in wild and domestic bird populations across multiple states.

A brand of cat food also said it was recalling a line of its products after authorities linked the death of a cat to a batch of feed contaminated with bird flu.

The brand, Northwest Naturals, said it was advising people to throw out two-pound bags of its Feline Turkey Recipe that have a best-by date between May 21, 2026, and June 23, 2026, after the bags tested positive for virulent bird flu.

Experts warn that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is becoming more prevalent, driven by migratory bird patterns.

While the virus primarily affects birds, it has shown the capacity to infect mammals, including domestic pets and wildlife, under certain conditions.

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Earlier this month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first severe human case of bird flu in the U.S. — a Louisiana resident who was hospitalized after being exposed to backyard flocks.

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India’s former prime minister Manmohan Singh dies

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India’s former prime minister Manmohan Singh dies

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India’s former prime minister Manmohan Singh, who liberalised the economy and then led the country through a period of strong economic growth, has died.

Singh, 92, was being treated for age-related medical conditions, the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi said, as it announced his death on Thursday.

The Oxford university-educated economist set India on a path to becoming a fast-growing economy as finance minister from 1991 to 1996, when he opened up the country to more foreign trade and private investment.

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Considered a political lightweight by some in India at that time, Singh was a surprise choice by the Congress party to be prime minister after it won parliamentary elections in 2004.

Alongside a growth rate of almost 7 per cent, Singh’s decade as premier was marred by allegations of widespread corruption against his party’s leaders, although his personal integrity was rarely questioned.

Singh was accused of inaction and opposition parties claimed he was subservient to Congress’s chief at that time, Sonia Gandhi.

Shortly before Congress lost elections to Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party in 2014, Singh said in a speech to parliament that “history would be kinder to me than the contemporary media, or for that matter opposition parties”.

Prime Minister Modi on Thursday described Singh as one of India’s most distinguished leaders, saying he left a “strong imprint on our economic policy over the years” and had “made extensive efforts to improve people’s lives” as premier.

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Rahul Gandhi, a senior member of the Congress party, paid tribute to Singh, saying he had lost a “mentor and guide” whose “humility and deep understanding of economics inspired the nation”.

A member of parliament for more than three decades, Singh retired from active politics earlier this year.

The mild-mannered Singh, who belonged to India’s minority Sikh community, was born to a humble family in 1932 in a village in India’s Punjab prior to the country’s independence, which is now part of Pakistan.

Singh rose to become one of India’s most successful economists, serving the government in various capacities, including as head of the country’s central bank in the 1980s.

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