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The Economic Mind of Tim Walz

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The Economic Mind of Tim Walz

Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally with Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, at the Liacouras Center at Temple University on Aug. 6, 2024 in Philadelphia.

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In recent weeks, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz burst from relative obscurity to co-headlining the Democratic presidential ticket. Walz’s career rocket launch was fueled by his cutting political rhetoric, folksy midwestern charm, jovial dad vibes, and progressive principles and accomplishments.

Before Walz was governor and a vice presidential candidate, he wore many hats. He was a congressman, a high school teacher, a union member, a command sergeant major in the Army National Guard, a state-championship-winning high school football coach. One hat he did not wear: lawyer. That makes him, according to The Economist, β€œthe first non-lawyer to be on the Democratic ticket since 1980.”

While in Congress, Walz represented a conservative district that had elected only one other Democratic representative in the previous century. The conservative makeup of that district might help explain why he took political positions that are rare for Democrats, including supporting gun rights (he had an β€œA” rating from the NRA) and the Keystone XL pipeline, which progressive lawmakers and environmentalists opposed because of its likely environmental impacts. Despite representing a conservative district, however, Walz was also an early supporter of same-sex marriage. He also has a long history of taking populist, progressive positions on a host of economic policies, from trade to corporate bailouts.

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While not as dramatic as the political transformation of his electoral counterpart JD Vance, Walz too had a political transformation over the last decade. As governor, Walz established a more progressive record than his time as a congressman, including on gun control and fighting climate change.

As governor, Walz prioritized economic issues β€” including greater government support for families and children β€” which have also been a top priority for Kamala Harris. It’s feasible that Walz’s selection could be a signal of the policies that Harris, if elected president, will try to implement during her administration.

A few weeks back, after Donald Trump picked Vance as his running mate, the Planet Money newsletter looked into Vance’s economic positions and record. Consider this newsletter the sequel. Today, we’re stepping inside the economic mind of Tim Walz.

Walzonomics

As governor, Walz prioritized increasing the economic security of kids. A couple years back in the Planet Money newsletter, we highlighted how America’s welfare system is pretty generous for the elderly but relatively stingy for kids. Comparing the United States to almost 40 other countries in the OECD, only Turkey spends less per child as a percentage of their GDP. It’s a significant reason why the US has a much higher rate of childhood poverty than other rich nations β€” and even a higher rate of childhood poverty than some not-so-rich countries.

As a senator, Kamala Harris co-sponsored legislation to increase the child tax credit. And, according to reporting from NPR’s Asma Khalid, Harris was β€œparticularly passionate” on this issue when she became vice president.

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During the pandemic, the Biden-Harris administration, as part of the American Rescue Plan, expanded and enhanced the childhood tax credit, helping lift millions of kids out of poverty. One study by scholars at Columbia University found it reduced childhood poverty by about 30%. But, the enhanced childhood tax credit was made only temporary, and because of politics in Washington, Congress didn’t end up renewing it.

Governor Walz wasn’t happy with that. So he implemented a state version of the childhood tax credit, which, according to the Tax Policy Center, is β€œone of the largest in the country.” Starting in tax year 2023, every Minnesotan taxpayer with kids can claim β€œ$1,750 per qualifying child, with no limit on the number of children claimed.” And because the credit is fully refundable, it means that even low-income Minnesotans who don’t pay much or anything in state taxes are eligible for it.

In addition to passing a generous tax credit for kids, Walz also created a program that gives Minnesotan K-12 students free school breakfasts and lunches.

Somewhat controversially, Walz made this meal program universal. It is not means-tested, so even rich kids can get free breakfasts and lunches. At a press conference after this program’s passage, Walz defended the universality of the program from Republican attacks that it was an unnecessary giveaway to parents who didn’t need it.

β€œYeah, isn’t that rich? Our Republican colleagues were concerned there would be a tax cut for the wealthiest. You can’t make some of this up if you tried,” Walz said. Walz argued that, because the food program is universal, there is less bureaucracy in administering it. State bureaucrats and schools don’t have to verify the income of kids’ parents. β€œWe know a lot of families β€” this is hard. They send you lots of paperwork… [The universality of the tax credit] was meant to make it as easy as possible, knowing it’s a benefit for all of them.”

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In a recent interview with the New York Times’ Ezra Klein, Walz further explained that making his school food program universal also helped eliminate divisions in school cafeterias. As a high school teacher for many years, Walz also served as a lunchroom monitor. In the past, Walz said, students who received free or subsidized lunch could be identified because they had different colored lunch tickets. He suggested that the universal nature of this program helped to eliminate class-based distinctions in schools and reduce stigma for poor kids who need assistance.

In addition, Walz told Klein, he got a lot of feedback from parents β€” and β€œespecially mothers because of the unequal distribution of domestic labor” β€” that revealed another benefit of free school breakfast and lunches. β€œThese were women who said, β€˜Look, we didn’t qualify before. We do now. It’s an absolute tax cut for us. But it’s an absolute lifesaver for me that I don’t have to get up in the morning and either make breakfast or send one to school… So it’s a double benefit for us. I have less work. My kids eat.’ So it was actually middle-class folks who were most jazzed about this.”

Walz supported a host of other measures that support kids, including increasing funding for K-12 schools by 10 percent (a $2.2 billion increase) and signing a bill that expanded funding for kids who grew up in foster care to attend college.

Walz signed legislation that gave Minnesotan workers up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave as well as paid sick leave. As we’ve reported before in the Planet Money newsletter, the United States is the only rich country without a national paid leave program. The federal government only guarantees up to 12 weeks of unpaid family and medical leave, and it doesn’t even do that for all workers.

As governor, Walz worked to change that at the state level, expanding the ability of workers in his state to take paid leave. He signed legislation that gave Minnesotans up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave. Even more, he made the program more generous for low-income workers. The program has a progressive replacement rate, so lower income Minnesotans get a higher percentage of their income replaced when they’re on leave. The leave program is supposed to launch in 2026.

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In addition, Walz provided Minnesotans with paid sick leave. Now, for every 30 hours Minnesotans work, they can earn at least one hour of sick leave up to β€œa maximum of 48 hours each year unless the employer agrees to a higher amount.”

Walz helped make Minnesota’s tax system one of the most progressive of any state in the country. Through a series of tax cuts, rebates, and credits for low and middle-income Minnesotans and moderate tax hikes on the rich, Walz has helped transform Minnesota’s tax system into one of the few in the nation that is β€œmoderately progressive,” according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Most other states, according to this think tank, tax the rich at lower rates and therefore have tax systems that aren’t progressive at all.

Walz has done a lot on the tax reform front. Facing a multibillion-dollar budget surplus, the governor was able to enact β€œthe largest tax cut in state history.” These tax cuts included the aforementioned child tax credit as well tax rebates of up to $1,300 for working class Minnesotans, which some dubbed β€œWalz checks.” Walz also cut taxes for recipients of Social Security in Minnesota.

To help pay for these cuts, Walz put a new tax on multinational corporations. He put a one percent surtax on investment income over $1 million a year. Walz also increased taxes on gas to help fund infrastructure.

Walz invested heavily in Minnesota’s infrastructure. Under Walz, the state has spent billions on improving roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects.

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Walz has earned a reputation as a β€œYIMBY” β€” or, someone who has prioritized the development of new housing to help solve affordability issues.Β As governor, Walz took a number of actions to increase the supply and affordability of housing in Minnesota, including a billion-dollar housing investment bill that amounted to the largest single investment in housing in Minnesota history. Walz called it β€œa generational investment in housing.”

Walz is a former union member and a big supporter of organized labor. As a teacher, Walz was a member of the American Federation of Teachers union. And, like his counterpart JD Vance, Walz walked a picket line with auto workers. Walz also abolished noncompete agreements, which limited workers’ ability to switch jobs within an industry. He also banned companies from requiring workers to attend anti-union briefings, boosted funding for workplace safety inspections and worked to enhance worker protections, including at Amazon warehouses.

After Harris selected Walz, a range of unions praised him. β€œTim Walz doesn’t just talk the talk, he walks the walk,” the United Auto Workers union wrote on X. β€œFrom delivering for working-class Americans to standing with the UAW on our picket line last year, we know which side he’s on.”

After intense, back-and-forth negotiations with Uber and Lyft, Governor Walz helped Minnesota becomeΒ the first state to establish a minimum wage for Uber and Lyft drivers. In 2023, the Minnesota legislature passed a bill that would have set minimum pay rates for rideshare drivers and increased protections for them against being fired. Uber was not happy. And, after they threatened they would largely pull out of the state if the bill passed, Walz ended up vetoing the bill β€” his first veto.

β€œRideshare drivers deserve fair wages and safe working conditions. I am committed to finding solutions that balance the interests of all parties, including drivers and riders,” Walz said about his veto. β€œThis is not the right bill to achieve these goals. I have spent my career fighting for workers, and I will continue to work with drivers, riders, and rideshare companies to address the concerns that this bill sought to address.”

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Ultimately, however, Walz successfully surmounted the intense opposition from ride-share companies and implemented a version of this policy.

Governor Walz signed a so-called β€œTaylor Swift bill” that requires ticket sellers to fully disclose, up front, the real price β€” including all fees and surcharges β€” of tickets to concerts, games, and other live events. This bill was apparently sponsored by a legislator unhappy that they had trouble buying a ticket to a Taylor Swift concert in Minneapolis. The new law, among other measures, requires ticket sellers to disclose the full price of live events, including all fees, up front.

Governor Walz legalized marijuana. Both as a congressman and governor, Walz has been a long-time friend of weed smokers. In 2023, he signed a bill that legalized cannabis in Minnesota and created an β€œOffice of Cannabis Management” to oversee and regulate the new sector. The law also automatically expunged β€œcertain prior cannabis-related records” from the criminal histories of Minnesotans.

β€œWe’ve known for too long that prohibiting the use of cannabis hasn’t worked. By legalizing adult-use cannabis, we’re expanding our economy, creating jobs, and regulating the industry to keep Minnesotans safe,” said Governor Walz in a statement after signing the bill. β€œLegalizing adult-use cannabis and expunging or resentencing cannabis convictions will strengthen communities. This is the right move for Minnesota.”

Walz has a mixed record on environmental causes. As a congressman, Walz supported the creation of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which was broadly opposed by progressives and environmental groups for its potential contributions to climate change and other environmental impacts (the pipeline was ultimately scuttled).

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But, as a governor, Walz signed a litany of pro-environmental bills, including a law that requires Minnesota to get 100% of its electricity from clean, renewable sources by 2040.

At the same time, however, Walz supported various causes opposed by environmentalists, including β€œabout mining, oil pipelines, ag pollution and more,” according to The Star Tribune.

β€œWhat we have appreciated about Gov. Walz is he is very pragmatic,” Julie Lucas, executive director of MiningMinnesota, told Politico.

While serving in Congress, Walz opposed most free trade agreements he had the opportunity to vote for. Walz, for example, voted against free trade deals with Peru, Panama, and Colombia.

β€œTrade can be a powerful tool for good, but as we’ve seen in the past with agreements like NAFTA, sometimes these agreements work against the American worker,” then-Congressman Walz said in a 2015 statement.

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When opposing free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, Walz expressed opposition to how these countries were governed. β€œAlthough improvements have been made in recent years, Colombia still has one of the worst human rights records in the western hemisphere, especially when it comes to the rights of workers,” then-Congressman Walz said in a press release. β€œIn light of this record, I am opposed to any trade agreement with Colombia which does not make a dramatic and sustained improvement to human rights and the rule of law in Colombia. Additionally, I am concerned about the instability and corruption of Panama’s financial institutions and oppose that agreement without a tougher crackdown on those abuses.”

Walz, however, did vote for a free trade agreement with South Korea in 2011. β€œWhen done right, I firmly believe fair trade agreements have the potential to create jobs for American workers, greater demand for American products and growth for the US economy,” Walz said in a statement. β€œThat is exactly the kind of policy we need to pursue in times like these. In southern Minnesota, the Korea Free Trade Agreement is an exciting prospect for many of our farmers and I believe this deal is a net win for Minnesota.”

As a congressman, Walz voted against bailouts for financial and auto companies. And he voted for the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. β€œWall Street reform will help ensure that hard-working taxpayers are never again asked to bail out Wall Street for their reckless decisions,” then-Congressman Walz wrote in an op-ed after voting for Dodd-Frank. β€œI voted against President Bush’s original Wall Street bailout in 2008, and opposed President Obama’s attempts in 2009 to renew it because it was a raw deal for taxpayers. The next time a big bank’s mistakes threaten the economy, there won’t be a bailout, but an orderly liquidation process β€” and the CEOs will be the first to go.”

On his opposition to the bailout of American automakers, Walz explained in a statement, β€œI voted against the auto industry bailout for the same reason I voted against the Wall Street bailout: because it doesn’t do enough to protect the taxpayers who are footing the bill. Nothing in this bill will prevent the auto manufacturers and their suppliers from continuing to move jobs overseas. And we have no guarantee that spending $15 billion in taxpayers’ money will actually solve the Big Three’s problems. We must preserve and create jobs in America but this isn’t the way to do it.”

***

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As is clear from the above, Walz has established a lengthy track record. And not everyone loves it. After Harris selected Walz, conservatives attacked his economic record. Former Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, for example, characterized Walz as a β€œtax-and-spend liberal” and even an β€œavowed socialist,” pointing to a recent comment Walz had made. β€œDon’t ever shy away from our progressive values,” Walz said recently on a β€œWhite Dudes For Kamala” call. β€œOne person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness.”

Love him or hate him, the vice presidency is often just a ceremonial role that doesn’t have much power. However, Harris’s selection of Walz may say something about her commitment to progressive policy goals, like greater government support for kids and families, and perhaps a less cozy relationship with big corporations than some past Democratic administrations.

We will be closely monitoring the economic policy issues and proposals of this presidential election. Follow along with us at Planet Money, on our short daily podcast The Indicator or here at our newsletter.

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Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation

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Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation

WASHINGTON (AP) β€” President Donald Trump returned from the spectacle of a Chinese state visit to a less than welcoming U.S. economy β€” with the military band and garden tour in Beijing giving way to pressure over how to fix America’s escalating inflation rate.

Consumer inflation in the United States increased to 3.8% annually in April, higher than what he inherited as the Iran war and the Republican president’s own tariffs have pushed up prices. Inflation is now outpacing wage gains and effectively making workers poorer. The Cleveland Federal Reserve estimates that annual inflation could reach 4.2% in May as the war has kept oil and gasoline prices high.

Trump’s time with Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears unlikely to help the U.S. economy much, despite Trump’s claims of coming trade deals. The trip occurred as many people are voting in primaries leading into the November general election while having to absorb the rising costs of gasoline, groceries, utility bills, jewelry, women’s clothing, airplane tickets and delivery services. Democrats see the moment as a political opportunity.

β€œHe’s returning to a dumpster fire,” said Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal think tank focused on economic issues. β€œThe president will not have the faith and confidence of the American people β€” the economy is their top issue and the president is saying, β€˜You’re on your own.’”

The president’s trip to Beijing and his recent comments that indicated a tone-deafness to voters’ concerns about rising prices have suggested his focus is not on the American public and have undermined Republicans who had intended to campaign on last year’s tax cuts as helping families.

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Trump described the trip as a victory, saying on social media that Xi β€œcongratulated me on so many tremendous successes,” as the U.S. president has praised their relationship.

Trump told reporters that Boeing would be selling 200 aircraft β€” and maybe even 750 β€œif they do a good job” β€” to the Chinese. He said American farmers would be β€œvery happy” because China would be β€œbuying billions of dollars of soybeans.”

β€œWe had an amazing time,” Trump said as he flew home on Air Force One, and told Fox News’ Bret Baier in an interview that gasoline prices were just some β€œshort-term pain” and would β€œdrop like a rock” once the war ends.

Inflationary pain is not a factor in how Trump handles Iran

Trump departed from the White House for China by saying the negotiations over the Iran war depended on stopping Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. β€œI don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.

That remark prompted blowback because it suggested to some that Trump cared more about challenging Iran than fighting inflation at home. Trump defended his words, telling Fox News: β€œThat’s a perfect statement. I’d make it again.”

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The White House has since stressed that Trump is focused on inflation.

Asked later about the president’s words, Vice President JD Vance said there had been a β€œmisrepresentation” of the remarks. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the β€œadministration remains laser-focused on delivering growth and affordability on the homefront” while indicating actions would be taken on grocery prices.

But as Trump appeared alongside Xi, new reports back home showed inflation rising for businesses and interest rates climbing on U.S. government debt.

His comments that Boeing would sell 200 jets to China caused the company’s stock price to fall because investors had expected a larger number. There was little concrete information offered about any trade agreements reached during the summit, including Chinese purchases of U.S. exports such as liquefied natural gas and beef.

β€œForeign policy wins can matter politically, but only if voters feel stability and affordability in their daily lives,” said Brittany Martinez, a former Republican congressional aide who is the executive director of Principles First, a center-right advocacy group focused on democracy issues.

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β€œMidterms are almost always a referendum on cost of living and public frustration, and Republicans are not immune from the same inflation and affordability pressures that hurt Democrats in recent cycles,” she added.

Democrats see Trump as vulnerable

Democratic lawmakers are seizing on Trump’s comments before his trip as proof of his indifference to lowering costs. There is potential staying power of his remarks as Americans head into Memorial Day weekend facing rising prices for the hamburgers and hot dogs to be grilled.

β€œWhat Americans do not see is any sympathy, any support, or any plan from Trump and congressional Republicans to lower costs – in fact, they see the opposite,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Thursday.

Vance faulted the Biden administration for the inflation problem even though the inflation rate is now higher than it was when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a specific mandate to fix it.

β€œThe inflation number last month was not great,” Vance said Wednesday, but he then stressed, β€œWe’re not seeing anything like what we saw under the Biden administration.”

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Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, a Democrat. By the time Trump took the oath of office, it was a far more modest 3%.

Trump’s inflation challenge could get harder

The data tells a different story as higher inflation is spreading into the cost of servicing the national debt.

Over the past week, the interest rate charged on 10-year U.S. government debt jumped from 4.36% to 4.6%, an increase that implies higher costs for auto loans and mortgages.

β€œMy fear is that the layers of supply shocks that are affecting the U.S. economy will only further feed into inflationary pressures,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

Daco noted that last year’s tariff increases were now translating into higher clothing prices. With the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s ability to impose tariffs by declaring an economic emergency, his administration is preparing a new set of import taxes for this summer.

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Daco stressed that there have been a series of supply shocks. First, tariffs cut into the supply of imports. In addition, Trump’s immigration crackdown cut into the supply of foreign-born workers. Now, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the vital waterway used to ship 20% of global oil supplies.

β€œWe’re seeing an erosion of growth,” Daco said.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.

She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agency’s decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White House’s requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.

Dr. Hoeg’s hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agency’s most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedy’s decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.

But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she β€œstuck with the science.”

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β€œI am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,” Dr. Hoeg said, adding, β€œI’m glad that we didn’t give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasn’t appropriate.”

As the director of the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agency’s liaison to an influential vaccine committee.

She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.

The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.

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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps

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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The U.S. Supreme Court refused Friday to allow Virginia to use a new congressional map that favored Democrats in all but one of the state’s U.S. House seats. The map was a key part of Democrats’ effort to counter the Republican redistricting wave set off by President Trump.

The new map was drawn by Democrats and approved by Virginia voters in an April referendum. But on May 8, the Supreme Court of Virginia in a 4-to-3 vote declared the referendum, and by extension the new map, null and void because lawmakers failed to follow the proper procedures to get the issue on the ballot, violating the state constitution.

Virginia Democrats and the state’s attorney general then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, seeking to put into effect the map approved by the voters, which yields four more likely Democratic congressional seats. In their emergency application, they argued the Virginia Supreme Court was “deeply mistaken” in its decision on “critical issues of federal law with profound practical importance to the Nation.” Further, they asserted the decision “overrode the will of the people” by ordering Virginia to “conduct its election with the congressional districts that the people rejected.”

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Republican legislators countered that it would be improper for the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into a purely state law controversy β€” especially since the Democrats had not raised any federal claims in the lower court.

Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republicans without explanation leaving in place the state court ruling that voided the Democratic-friendly maps.

The court’s decision not to intervene was its latest in emergency requests for intervention on redistricting issues. In December, the high court OK’d Texas using a gerrymandered map that could help the GOP win five more seats in the U.S. House. In February, the court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map, adopted to offset Texas’s map. Then in March, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of a New York map expected to flip a Republican congressional district Democratic.

And perhaps most importantly, in April, the high court ruled that a Louisiana congressional map was a racial gerrymander and must be redrawn. That decision immediately set off a flurry of redistricting efforts, particularly in the South, where Republican legislators immediately began redrawing congressional maps to eliminate long established majority Black and Hispanic districts.

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