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The downfall of Joe Biden

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The downfall of Joe Biden

“It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,” Nancy Pelosi told MSNBC on July 10, smiling past Joe Biden’s insistence a day earlier that he would not be dropping his re-election bid unless the “Lord Almighty” ordered it.

Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House, never publicly called for Biden to end his candidacy and make way for a new generation after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump in late June. 

But for someone with the San Francisco Democrat’s heft in the party it was the equivalent of telling America’s commander-in-chief: think again.

When one of Pelosi’s closest political allies, California representative Adam Schiff, last week called for the president to step aside, it was all but over. “Mama bear has sent her message,” a senior Democrat in Washington said.

Protesters outside a school where Joe Biden held a rally on July 5 in Madison, Wisconsin © Jim Vondruska/Getty Images

Biden’s downfall, an unprecedented political geronticide, played out over 24 days, with the president and his inner circle fighting to cling on to power as a growing band of Democrats — elected officials, donors and activists — undertook the ugly work of toppling him. They did so with misgivings but ultimately convinced that his candidacy would doom the nation to a Trump restoration in November and all that might accompany it.

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The ending was unceremonious. On Sunday, at 1.46pm, Biden posted a one-page statement on social media from his holiday home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, where he has been recuperating from Covid.

Almost instantaneously, he was showered with accolades — including from those who had worked to oust him. “He will undoubtedly go down in the history books as a true American patriot,” said Virginia Senator Mark Warner. Barack Obama called him “one of America’s most consequential presidents, as well as a dear friend”.

Having buried Biden, it was now time for the Democrats to praise him.

On one level, his fall is an epic event that may reverberate from the battlefields of Ukraine to the fight against climate change and American women’s freedom to make their own reproductive decisions. 

Yet it is also eminently relatable: the everyday story of a family attempting to persuade a beloved but declining patriarch to step aside. Or, as one Democratic operative in Washington described it: “The hardest case of taking away the keys from dad. Ever.”

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It began in a television studio on CNN’s Atlanta campus that the cable network converted into a red-white-and-blue debate stage for the Trump-Biden match-up. It was Biden who requested the early June 27 debate — hoping to jolt a campaign that was trailing Trump in polls by a small but persistent margin.

In the event, it backfired. A rasping, rambling Biden ended up crystallising the worries about his age and fitness, rather than dispelling them.

“I was wishing that someone would jump out and stop it the way they do in a boxing match when an ageing champ is getting brutally beaten,” said Frank Aquila, a corporate lawyer at Sullivan & Cromwell and Democratic fundraiser, who was watching with his wife in their Manhattan apartment.

They began frantically texting with family and friends. “They were all in shock,” he said.

The internet would soon be ablaze with clips of Biden stumbling and losing his train of thought — claiming at one point to have “finally beaten Medicare”.

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“We are in Fuck City,” Ari Emanuel, the chief executive of the Endeavor talent agency, declared at the Aspen Ideas Festival the next morning, capturing Democrats’ sense of dread.

On Wall Street, a top rainmaker had his secretary clear his schedule as soon as the debate ended — including a meeting with the chief executive of a S&P 500 company in the middle of a takeover bid. “I immediately called up a bunch of my closest pals and we started co-ordinating our efforts,” this person recalled.

Over the coming days they would play a pivotal role, leveraging contacts in Washington, and delivering a stark message: no more money would be going to Biden.

The Biden team entered damage control mode. Before sheltering with his family at Camp David that weekend, the president tried to reassure wealthy donors at fundraisers in the Hamptons, the ultra-wealthy Long Island playground, and at New Jersey governor Phil Murphy’s estate overlooking the Navesink River.

Guests traded looks of disbelief that Biden relied on a teleprompter to deliver remarks to donors. “You can’t run the country with a teleprompter,” one adviser to a big Biden donor said.

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The shock at Biden’s debate performance was fast turning to anger. Donors complained that they had been misled by the president’s inner circle about the extent of his decline. They were referring to a tight-knit group who had served him for decades, including Anita Dunn, Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti and Ted Kaufman.

Biden, centre right, and first lady Jill Biden, right, arrive on Marine One with granddaughters Natalie Biden, from left, and Finnegan Biden, at East Hampton Airport, Saturday, June 29 2024, in East Hampton, New York
Biden and first lady Jill Biden arrive on Marine One at East Hampton Airport, New York, on June 29 © Evan Vucci/AP

The first lady Jill Biden was also a target. The president’s wife of 47 years and closest confidante was widely admired for her down-to-earth persona. Now she was being recast as Lady MacBiden, too enamoured with the trappings of the White House to discourage her husband’s worst instincts.

In Hollywood, the fury was aimed at Biden’s chief fundraiser Jeffrey Katzenberg, the co-founder of the DreamWorks film studio who some felt was peddling political make-believe.

“[Katzenberg] would say, ‘He’s fine, I was just with him,’” a Hollywood veteran and longtime Democratic donor recalled. “He had this famous quote for everybody, which was ‘I’m happy to put you in a room with him and you’ll see for yourself.’ But nobody did it.”


For those who cared to see it, evidence of Biden’s frailty abounded. Trump had been harping on it for years. There was the ever-present teleprompter. There was the way his wife and others formed a protective wall on stage, limiting the public’s view of his ginger steps. There was the regular adventure of the president attempting to mount the stairs to Air Force One.

More recently, there were the freezing episodes — both at a Juneteenth celebration at the White House and at a Los Angeles fundraiser, when Obama guided his former vice-president offstage by the arm.

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Daniel Faraci, a Republican strategist, said there would inevitably be a “convenient blame game”. “But who can say they were really hoodwinked?” he asked.


On Friday, July 5 — eight days after the debate and three days after the first Democrat lawmaker had called for him to leave the race — Biden bowed to pressure and made a rare media appearance, sitting down with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in a Wisconsin school.

The 22-minute interview was mostly notable for the many ways Stephanopoulos asked the president the same question: was he too old for the job?

Biden performed better than he had during the debate — but not so well as to erase the doubts. As one Democratic consultant remarked: “He could do 400 interviews with George Stephanopoulos and it wouldn’t make a difference.”

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In private meetings, including a Sunday evening conference call convened by Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries, representatives in competitive districts warned that Biden would drag them down. The party was now in danger of losing both House and Senate. Trump would be unbound in a second term.

But the next morning, instead of relenting, Biden fought. Borrowing a page from Trump, he blamed “elites” and the news media for turning against him. In a defiant letter to Congress he ordered legislators to “turn the page”.

“He’s a brutally stubborn man,” a Biden fundraiser said of a blue-collar politician who prided himself on never giving up — overcoming his childhood stutter, the death of his first wife and young daughter and his humiliating exit from the 1987 Democratic primary.

Democrats were now adrift. Some acknowledged Biden’s weaknesses but believed it was suicidal to make a change just four months before an election.

If the party did switch horses, the cleanest solution would be to pass the nomination to vice-president Kamala Harris, who would inherit the campaign’s $230mn war chest. But many donors believed she would fare no better against Trump.

Yet passing over Harris, who is of Black and south Asian descent, risked inflaming a core Democratic constituency — especially if the job went to a white candidate instead. The party was already riven between centrists and progressives, urban elites and the working class, and its rivalrous Clinton, Biden and Obama factions.

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Kamala Harris, right, arrives to speak from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on Monday July 22 2024
Kamala Harris arrives to speak from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on Monday, July 22 © Alex Brandon/AP

“Everybody is terrified by a Trump presidency and everybody wants to do anything and everything possible to prevent that,” said Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive star who represents the Bronx borough of New York City. But nobody could seem to agree on the way forward.

She too railed against the elites trying to topple Biden. “Many of these people are the same people who closed ranks around anybody who wanted to raise this conversation a year ago,” Ocasio-Cortez said.

By Tuesday, July 9, Biden appeared to be gaining the upper hand. Democrats who had voiced concerns about the president in private were now giving him their public backing.

“I’m with Joe,” Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, would say to reporters time and again, his smile a shield. With the party’s mid-August convention approaching, time was on Biden’s side — even if age was not.

Then Pelosi emerged. Steely and skilful at 84, she well understood the agony of ageing out of an office. Two years earlier, when the Democrats lost control of the House, she relinquished her leadership role to make way for the younger Jeffries. The grace with which she did so only seemed to elevate her stature in the party.

“Nancy is the most important voice, and she’s furious,” a prominent Democratic donor explained.  

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Pelosi’s studious non-endorsement of the president that Wednesday morning coincided with the publication of a stinging op-ed penned by George Clooney, the Hollywood star who had co-hosted a bonanza fundraiser a month earlier that bagged $30mn for Biden.

“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe “big F-ing deal” Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate,” Clooney wrote.

Inside the Biden campaign, the mood turned to despair. Some staffers confided to friends that they believed the cause was lost. Others worried that they might face legal repercussions for misleading the public about the president’s condition.


It was a bright summer’s day when the president’s motorcade rolled into Detroit on Friday, July 12. The previous evening he had muddled through another make-or-break encounter with the media, holding a press conference at the conclusion of the Nato summit in Washington. Biden managed to both flub names — referring to his “vice-president Trump” — and also display deep knowledge of global affairs.

Detroit felt like a spiritual homecoming if not a literal one. The capital of the US car industry had been left for dead but managed to claw its way back. Biden had played no small part in its salvation, overseeing the emergency loans that kept General Motors afloat after the 2008 financial crisis. Now Biden needed its grit.

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The venue at Renaissance High School gymnasium felt intimate compared with the tens-of-thousands of attendees that packed some Trump rallies. Many of the Biden supporters wore T-shirts advertising their union membership. Many were Black, a constituency that led Biden to a commanding victory in a crowded Democratic primary four years earlier. Conspicuously absent was Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor who had been touted as possible replacement for Biden.

Biden gestures during his remarks at Renaissance High School during a Friday, July 12 campaign event in Detroit, Michigan
Biden gestures during his remarks at Renaissance High School on Friday, July 12 in Detroit © Carlos Osorio/AP

“He’s not perfect but he’s not cruel,” said Nola Pankoff, 67, who had come to her first Biden rally that day with her husband, Steve, so they could lay eyes on the president themselves, without the filter of the media.

The Biden on offer that day was uneven. He confused names. He sometimes appeared to struggle reading the teleprompter. Stiff though he appeared, there was still a sparkle when he smiled at a well-wisher.

At one point, early on, a lone voice cried out: “We love you!” It seemed to lift Biden, and the rote routine of a 35-minute stump speech was transformed into something more.

“He needed that,” one woman said, visibly relieved, as she left.

That rally now feels like a swan song for an ageing politician. The next day, in Butler, Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old man would fire a volley of bullets from a nearby rooftop at Trump, injuring his ear and killing a retired fireman sitting in the front row. In an image that instantly became iconic, a bloodied Trump rose to his feet, waved his fist in the air, and exhorted his supporters to “fight!”.

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The contrast was unmistakable: one candidate struggling to walk while the other dodged an assassin’s bullet. To make matters worse, Biden would soon be diagnosed with Covid.

As Biden took to his sick bed in Delaware, the campaign against him in Washington shifted into high gear. Party elders stood silent as each day brought fresh defectors publicly calling for the president to step aside.

The ugliness of the denouement brought to mind an old observation by Andrew Card, George W Bush’s chief of staff: “If anybody tells you they’re leaving the White House voluntarily, they’re probably lying.”

By Saturday evening, Biden was coming around to the inevitable, according to people familiar with the matter. The next day, he called Harris, his chief of staff, Jeff Zients, and Jen O’Malley Dillon, his campaign chair, to relay his decision.

In the aftermath, Democrats like Frank Aquila, the corporate lawyer, seemed as much stricken as relieved. “We all loved Biden because he was a pragmatist capable of keeping the different souls of the party . . . united,” he said. “That’s why it was so hard to accept that he wasn’t fit any longer to be our candidate.”

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Donald Trump has donated to Kamala Harris twice, but she didn't keep the money

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Donald Trump has donated to Kamala Harris twice, but she didn't keep the money

Trump supported Harris’ reelection bid when she was serving as attorney general of California, one of many political donations he gave to Democrats over the years.

Chris duMond/Getty Images North America


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Chris duMond/Getty Images North America

For more on Biden’s decision and the now open 2024 race, head to the NPR Network’s live updates page.

Former President Donald Trump donated not once but twice to re-elect Kamala Harris as the attorney general of California.

California records show that Trump contributed $5,000 in September 2011 toward Harris’ 2014 reelection campaign, and followed up with another $1,000 in February 2013. His daughter Ivanka Trump also donated to the campaign, contributing $2,000 in 2014.

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Harris was elected attorney general in 2011 and reelected in 2014. She served until 2017, when she was sworn into the U.S. Senate.

But Harris did not keep the $6,000 from Trump. A spokesperson told the Sacramento Bee in 2020 that she donated the money to a “nonprofit that advocates for civil and human rights for Central Americans” in 2015, by which point she had been reelected and was launching her bid for the Senate.

News of Trump’s contribution surfaced after Biden picked Harris as his running mate in 2020 and again this week after he endorsed her for president.

On Sunday, Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., tweeted out an image of Trump’s 2011 check to Harris’ campaign, calling it “a wise investment.”

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Trump has financially supported plenty of Democrats in his lifetime — in fact, as NPR has reported, most of his political donations went to Democrats until around 2010.

He acknowledged that history on the campaign trail in 2016, saying at one rally, “I’ve got to give to them, because when I want something, I get it. When I call, they kiss my a**.”

“I was looking at the ones I’m running against. I’ve contributed to most of them — can you believe it?” he said. “I contribute to everybody. I’ve given to Democrats. I’ve given to Hillary. I’ve given to everybody, because that was my job.”

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Treasuries gain as markets reassess ‘Trump trades’ after Biden withdraws

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Treasuries gain as markets reassess ‘Trump trades’ after Biden withdraws

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The dollar and Treasury yields edged lower on Monday following Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the US presidential race, as investors reassessed the “Trump trade” positions they have built in recent weeks.

As markets opened to news that Biden would not be seeking re-election, the dollar traded 0.1 per cent lower against a basket of rival currencies. US Treasuries gained, pulling the 10-year yield 0.01 percentage points lower to 4.23 per cent, reflecting what traders said were new unknowns in the run-up to the November presidential vote.

“In the next couple of weeks, I think there’s going to be more noise than signal for markets in what comes out on the political side,” said Ray Attrill, global co-head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney. “Does that mean that economics will dominate? I don’t know. I think it all probably plays to a bit more indecision in the markets than has been the case in the last month or so.”

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Growing confidence in a win for former president Donald Trump, which Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman said would likely lead to “deregulation, tax cuts and increased fiscal spending”, had in recent weeks boosted haven assets including gold and bitcoin as traders priced in a higher chance of crypto-friendly policies, rising geopolitical tensions and stronger US inflation.

Yet small moves early on Monday in the price of both assets — bitcoin advanced 0.4 per cent while gold rose 0.1 per cent to $2,402 per troy ounce — as well as in Treasury yields and the dollar, suggest that investors remained cautious about unwinding their recently built positions, said Koopman, whose “base case” remained a Trump win in November.

Prediction markets showed Trump’s victory odds declined slightly on Sunday as Biden officially endorsed vice-president Kamala Harris.

Long-dated Treasuries had been hit in recent weeks as investors priced in a growing chance of a second Trump presidency, betting his tax-cutting policies would be inflationary and bad for bonds. However, the impact had been muddied by increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut as US inflation fell.

In a note to clients, Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity trading strategy at Citigroup, said Biden’s decision to step aside would be a “headwind for Trump trades” and “add an uncertainty premium to the [Democratic National Convention] dates in August and shift odds back closer to our 50/50 base case” for the election outcome.

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S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2 per cent ahead of the Wall Street open. European stocks rebounded from a string of losses last week, with the Stoxx Europe 600 0.6 per cent higher in early trade.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.3 per cent. Traders said similar falls of 1.4 per cent in South Korea’s Kospi and 0.7 per cent in Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 were likely to be the effect of funds trimming positions built in recent weeks around expectations of a clear Trump victory. The yen traded in a tight range at about ¥157.5 to the dollar.

In Japan, defence industry stocks such as Mitsubishi Heavy, IHI and Japan Steel Works have recently soared to multiyear highs on a bet that a Trump victory and an era of US isolationism would force allies such as Tokyo to spend more on military equipment. Those same stocks dropped sharply on Monday, with shipbuilder IHI leading declines with a 3.7 per cent fall.

Trump’s frequent calls for tariffs to protect US manufacturers have prompted some investor concerns about companies likely to be affected but also provided a tailwind for Asian groups with strong manufacturing bases in the US.

“The bigger picture is that investors probably still see Trump with an advantage, so in market terms, this isn’t a huge change in the narrative. Asian markets are certainly going to be taking a lot of their direction on this from the ‘mother market’ in the US,” said Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA Securities in Tokyo.

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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.

Peter Zay | Anadolu | Getty Images

President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president has set the stage for a much tighter and uncertain race in November, according to some experts

Biden stepped down from the race Sunday as top Democrats pressured him to drop out following a disastrous debate performance and as Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading in the polls.

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The Democrats had been headed for a “landslide defeat” in November, but now, they stand a chance, said Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group.

“They’ve turned [this race] around, and President Biden has given the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

Harris now finds herself on a glidepath to the Democratic nomination, though she will still need to win a majority of delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. 

While some other contenders might throw their hat into the race, “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the prohibitive favorite to become the nominee,” Bremmer said. 

If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer the Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“If the Democrats can be unified, come out of this convention, speaking with one voice, energized, excited, then they have a good chance to win in November,” he said.

Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a match-up with Trump.

He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.

Harris said in a post on social media platform X that she was looking to work to “earn and win” the nomination while uniting Democrats.

How Harris helps Democrats

According to experts that spoke to CNBC, Harris comes with a number of advantages in comparison to her former running mate. 

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While Republicans have been gaining ground on the economy, inflation, and immigration fronts, abortion is a salient issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues as the first women Vice President.

“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to be running and serving for another four years, and this is now the top vulnerability for Trump,” said Eurasia’s Bremmer.  

A recent poll showed that some 85% of the population believed Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.

Democrats have good chance of winning if they're united and speak with one voice: McLarty Associates

“You see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more vibrant, more energetic former prosecutor that could certainly perform extremely well on the debate stage,” Bremmer added. 

Bremmer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. She “isn’t super likable as a retail politician … That’s been a vulnerability for her.”  There are also some risks associated with running as a woman — a daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father — in today’s America, he added.

On the other hand, she may be better-positioned than Biden to drive out certain key demographics, including “women, young people and black voters, Charles Myers, Signum Global policy Founder and CEO, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“It’s a whole new race. There’s a new candidate with an enormous amount of unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.

Greater uncertainty for markets 

Markets had increasingly been pricing in a Trump victory, with his presidency expected to bring in tax cuts and a stronger tariff policy. 

However, according to Myers, the race has been thrown into “complete disarray” with Harris set to give Trump a “real run for his money.”

“I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory,” Myers said, adding that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be perceived as having short-term risk. 

Kamala Harris might be better for business and M&A than Biden, says Jim Cramer

Trump has said that Harris would be easier to defeat compared to Biden. 

By the Democratic Convention, Harris would have picked a running mate and likely wrapped up the nomination, at which point the momentum could see her pull ahead in the polls, Myers said. 

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According to Okun, two likely frontrunners for Harris’s running mate are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, as they come from key swing states and are seen as more moderate.

If the Democrats are unable to unify factions within the party such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to a Republican party that is completely unified around Trump, he added.

CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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