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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say
US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.
Peter Zay | Anadolu | Getty Images
President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president has set the stage for a much tighter and uncertain race in November, according to some experts
Biden stepped down from the race Sunday as top Democrats pressured him to drop out following a disastrous debate performance and as Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading in the polls.
The Democrats had been headed for a “landslide defeat” in November, but now, they stand a chance, said Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group.
“They’ve turned [this race] around, and President Biden has given the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
Harris now finds herself on a glidepath to the Democratic nomination, though she will still need to win a majority of delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.
While some other contenders might throw their hat into the race, “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the prohibitive favorite to become the nominee,” Bremmer said.
If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer the Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“If the Democrats can be unified, come out of this convention, speaking with one voice, energized, excited, then they have a good chance to win in November,” he said.
Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a match-up with Trump.
He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.
Harris said in a post on social media platform X that she was looking to work to “earn and win” the nomination while uniting Democrats.
How Harris helps Democrats
According to experts that spoke to CNBC, Harris comes with a number of advantages in comparison to her former running mate.
While Republicans have been gaining ground on the economy, inflation, and immigration fronts, abortion is a salient issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues as the first women Vice President.
“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to be running and serving for another four years, and this is now the top vulnerability for Trump,” said Eurasia’s Bremmer.
A recent poll showed that some 85% of the population believed Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.
“You see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more vibrant, more energetic former prosecutor that could certainly perform extremely well on the debate stage,” Bremmer added.
Bremmer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. She “isn’t super likable as a retail politician … That’s been a vulnerability for her.” There are also some risks associated with running as a woman — a daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father — in today’s America, he added.
On the other hand, she may be better-positioned than Biden to drive out certain key demographics, including “women, young people and black voters, Charles Myers, Signum Global policy Founder and CEO, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“It’s a whole new race. There’s a new candidate with an enormous amount of unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.
Greater uncertainty for markets
Markets had increasingly been pricing in a Trump victory, with his presidency expected to bring in tax cuts and a stronger tariff policy.
However, according to Myers, the race has been thrown into “complete disarray” with Harris set to give Trump a “real run for his money.”
“I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory,” Myers said, adding that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be perceived as having short-term risk.
Trump has said that Harris would be easier to defeat compared to Biden.
By the Democratic Convention, Harris would have picked a running mate and likely wrapped up the nomination, at which point the momentum could see her pull ahead in the polls, Myers said.
According to Okun, two likely frontrunners for Harris’s running mate are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, as they come from key swing states and are seen as more moderate.
If the Democrats are unable to unify factions within the party such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to a Republican party that is completely unified around Trump, he added.
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
News
South Carolina Governor Plans Special Session to Redraw House Maps
Gov. Henry McMaster of South Carolina, a Republican, plans to call the state legislature back for a special session that will be focused on redrawing the state’s congressional maps, lawmakers said on Wednesday evening. The effort could eliminate the state’s sole Democratic district, held by Representative James E. Clyburn.
Mr. McMaster’s decision came one day after five Republican state senators voted with Democrats to block a resolution that would have brought the legislature back to the State Capitol to consider redistricting.
That vote had seemed to close the door on the matter. Republican lawmakers had considered an agreement to extend their session only when it became clear that Mr. McMaster would not immediately call a special session himself.
But Mr. McMaster, who cannot seek re-election because of term limits, now appears willing to thrust South Carolina into the redistricting battles that have reached fever intensity, particularly in the South, ever since the Supreme Court dealt a blow to the Voting Rights Act last month.
President Trump has been clear about his wish for a G.O.P. sweep of all seven of South Carolina’s congressional districts, pressing Republican officials to draw new district maps before the midterm elections.
Mr. McMaster’s office declined to comment on Wednesday. Recently, he had said that he would let the Republican-controlled General Assembly decide the matter.
If Mr. McMaster calls the special session, lawmakers would face a time crunch. South Carolina’s primaries are on June 9, but early voting begins in two weeks, so Republicans would have to pass new maps before May 26.
The South Carolina House has proposed moving the congressional primaries to August to accommodate new maps.
There are also legal hurdles to consider. Hundreds of overseas voters have already cast ballots, which could prompt lawsuits if their votes are discarded to account for a change of date in congressional elections.
It is still unclear if new maps would pass in a special session, although Republicans control the legislature and would need only a simple majority to approve them.
Davey Hiott, the Republican leader of the South Carolina House, told reporters that his chamber was ready to get things rolling on Friday morning and vote on a map as quickly as possible, ideally next week.
Shane Massey, the Republican leader of the State Senate, who drew national attention for his impassioned speech against redistricting, was much more apprehensive about moving fast. He said public input was important and continued to voice opposition to the redistricting effort.
“I haven’t heard anything that alleviates the concerns, not just for me but for other people that I’ve been talking to,” Mr. Massey said. “The concerns are there. If anything, they’re only heightened.”
He also noted that there were other pressing matters for the legislature to consider in the special session, such as finishing the budget.
Unlike their counterparts in states like Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana, some South Carolina Republicans have been much more lukewarm about the idea of mid-decade redistricting, mostly because they are skeptical that a new map would guarantee one more Republican-leaning congressional district. Instead, they fear that Democrats could be competitive in the newly created districts as Republican strength in some current districts is diluted.
Mr. Massey said in the chamber on Tuesday that changing the maps was “extremely risky” and could allow Democrats to pick up a seat.
“Very candidly, you’re going to motivate Black turnout, and there will be repercussions from that,” including on local races, he said in that speech.
Mr. Massey and Mr. Hiott did agree that the redistricting debates were about to get even messier in Columbia, the capital.
“It’ll be like nothing we’ve ever seen,” Mr. Hiott said. “It’ll be long. It’ll be tedious. At times, hopefully, it’ll be respectful.”
He laughed when asked what he made of the governor’s change of heart on redistricting, adding, “I never thought it was out of the realm of possibility.”
Mr. Massey said Mr. McMaster had argued in a private meeting that calling the legislature back didn’t mean he was telling them what to do.
“My position on that is, if you’re calling us back, you’re telling everybody what you want us to do,” Mr. Massey said.
Mr. Massey described their redistricting dilemma as “a box within a box,” a “maze,” something he didn’t know how to escape. Sooner or later, he added, they would have to vote on new maps.
The debate over redistricting comes in the waning weeks of a crowded Republican primary battle for governor. All of the leading candidates have expressed their support for redistricting to increase Republicans’ chances of retaining control of Congress. Some of the candidates, including Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Alan Wilson, the state attorney general, have showed up at committee hearings, urging lawmakers to move ahead.
Mr. Trump has not yet endorsed anyone in the governor’s race.
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Denise Powell wins Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district
Denise Powell, candidate for the Democratic nomination to the House of Representatives in Nebraska’s second district, right, hugs pollster Madeline Conway during an election night watch party Wednesday in Omaha, Neb.
Rebecca S. Gratz/AP
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Rebecca S. Gratz/AP
Political organizer Denise Powell has defeated State Sen. John Cavanaugh to win the Democratic primary in the race for Nebraska’s second congressional district, according to a race call by the Associated Press on Wednesday.
With the race too close to call as polls closed Tuesday night, Powell ultimately defeated Cavanaugh by about 2 percentage points with 89 percent of votes counted so far, according to estimates from the AP Wednesday evening. That margin could change as the remaining ballots in the race are counted.
Powell will go on to face the Republican nominee Brinker Harding who is endorsed by President Trump.
The race for the state’s second congressional district is closely watched because the ultimate winner could help decide which party controls the narrowly divided U.S. House after this year’s midterm elections.
The Democratic primary attracted more than $5.6 million in outside ad spending, according to a review of Federal Election Commission filings by Nebraska Public Media.
The second district, which includes the Omaha area, is known as the “blue dot” because it was the lone Nebraska district to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024 and Joe Biden in 2020. It is currently represented by Republican Don Bacon, who is retiring. Democrats see the seat as a prime pickup opportunity.

Powell’s win helps avoid a scenario that some Nebraska Democrats had been dreading. Had Cavanaugh won, the state’s Republican governor would have been able to appoint a replacement to finish his term, which ends in 2028.
Republicans already hold a supermajority in the Nebraska legislature, but some Democrats worried that losing a seat in a reliable district would have helped the GOP change how the state awards its electoral votes for president.
Nebraska is one of two states, the other being Maine, that does not use a winner-take-all approach when awarding electoral votes. Rather, it awards an Electoral College vote to the winning presidential candidate in each individual congressional district. In a close race, many Democrats fear the loss of the blue dot could prove pivotal.
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Stephen Cloobeck, Former California Governor Candidate, Arrested in Los Angeles County
Stephen Cloobeck, a wealthy real estate developer who briefly ran for governor of California last year, was arrested on Tuesday in West Hollywood, Calif., and charged with intimidating victims in a case against his fiancée, a former Penthouse model accused of wooing rich men online and stealing from them.
Mr. Cloobeck, 64, was arrested and charged with attempting to prevent or dissuade a victim from testifying, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department. A warrant had been issued for Mr. Cloobeck’s arrest, and he surrendered at the West Hollywood station on Tuesday morning.
The charge could potentially be a felony, and is related to a criminal case against Mr. Cloobeck’s fiancée, Adva Lavie, a social media influencer and model who is known online as Mia Ventura. She has been charged with multiple felonies and is accused of using dating apps to meet older, wealthy men and then burglarizing their homes, according to the Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office.
According to the complaint against Mr. Cloobeck that was released on Wednesday, he is being charged with three felony counts for attempting to dissuade — “by force or threat,” according to the complaint — three of Ms. Lavie’s victims from testifying against her. He is charged with an additional misdemeanor for allegedly making “annoying telephone calls” to an additional person connected to Ms. Lavie’s case.
Mr. Cloobeck was booked at 11:19 a.m. on Tuesday and released in the early afternoon after posting a $300,000 bond, according to jail records. His lawyer did not immediately return a call for comment, and Mr. Cloobeck did not respond to a text message.
Mr. Cloobeck, the founder of the timeshare company Diamond Resorts International, had put up millions of his own money to run for governor of California last year before withdrawing from the race in November. Upon his exit, he endorsed Eric Swalwell, the former congressman who had become a Democratic front-runner before he was accused of sexual abuse and had to abandon his campaign in April.
In ending his own campaign, Mr. Cloobeck said in November, “If Eric weren’t in this race, I’d still be in it. But I am leaving this race because the most qualified person in the state is now running for governor.”
Mr. Cloobeck described an unusually close relationship with Mr. Swalwell in an interview this year with Politico. He likened Mr. Swalwell to a “little brother,” and said the former congressman had stayed at his Malibu home several times in the prior eight years.
After the sex abuse allegations emerged, Mr. Swalwell stayed with Mr. Cloobeck again, according to NBC Los Angeles. But the real estate magnate told the station that he had cut ties with the former congressman days later.
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