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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.

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President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president has set the stage for a much tighter and uncertain race in November, according to some experts

Biden stepped down from the race Sunday as top Democrats pressured him to drop out following a disastrous debate performance and as Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading in the polls.

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The Democrats had been headed for a “landslide defeat” in November, but now, they stand a chance, said Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group.

“They’ve turned [this race] around, and President Biden has given the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

Harris now finds herself on a glidepath to the Democratic nomination, though she will still need to win a majority of delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. 

While some other contenders might throw their hat into the race, “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the prohibitive favorite to become the nominee,” Bremmer said. 

If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer the Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“If the Democrats can be unified, come out of this convention, speaking with one voice, energized, excited, then they have a good chance to win in November,” he said.

Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a match-up with Trump.

He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.

Harris said in a post on social media platform X that she was looking to work to “earn and win” the nomination while uniting Democrats.

How Harris helps Democrats

According to experts that spoke to CNBC, Harris comes with a number of advantages in comparison to her former running mate. 

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While Republicans have been gaining ground on the economy, inflation, and immigration fronts, abortion is a salient issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues as the first women Vice President.

“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to be running and serving for another four years, and this is now the top vulnerability for Trump,” said Eurasia’s Bremmer.  

A recent poll showed that some 85% of the population believed Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.

Democrats have good chance of winning if they're united and speak with one voice: McLarty Associates

“You see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more vibrant, more energetic former prosecutor that could certainly perform extremely well on the debate stage,” Bremmer added. 

Bremmer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. She “isn’t super likable as a retail politician … That’s been a vulnerability for her.”  There are also some risks associated with running as a woman — a daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father — in today’s America, he added.

On the other hand, she may be better-positioned than Biden to drive out certain key demographics, including “women, young people and black voters, Charles Myers, Signum Global policy Founder and CEO, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“It’s a whole new race. There’s a new candidate with an enormous amount of unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.

Greater uncertainty for markets 

Markets had increasingly been pricing in a Trump victory, with his presidency expected to bring in tax cuts and a stronger tariff policy. 

However, according to Myers, the race has been thrown into “complete disarray” with Harris set to give Trump a “real run for his money.”

“I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory,” Myers said, adding that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be perceived as having short-term risk. 

Kamala Harris might be better for business and M&A than Biden, says Jim Cramer

Trump has said that Harris would be easier to defeat compared to Biden. 

By the Democratic Convention, Harris would have picked a running mate and likely wrapped up the nomination, at which point the momentum could see her pull ahead in the polls, Myers said. 

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According to Okun, two likely frontrunners for Harris’s running mate are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, as they come from key swing states and are seen as more moderate.

If the Democrats are unable to unify factions within the party such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to a Republican party that is completely unified around Trump, he added.

CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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Tehran says ‘no plans’ for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship

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Tehran says ‘no plans’ for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship

US negotiators to head to Pakistan and Iranian cargo ship seized – a recappublished at 00:37 BST 20 April

Image source, Reuters
Image caption,

Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday

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Here’s a recap of the latest developments.

US negotiators will head to Pakistan on Monday with the intention of holding further talks on ending the war, Trump says – but Iranian state media cites unnamed officials as saying Tehran has “no plans for now to participate”.

The prospect of further high-level negotiations – a White House official says Vice-President JD Vance will attend – comes amid reports of fresh attacks on commercial vessels.

Trump says the navy intercepted and took “custody” of an Iranian tanker attempting to pass through the US blockade, “blowing a hole” in the ship’s engine room in the process.

Earlier, in the same post announcing his representatives would travel for more talks, Trump renewed his threat to destroy Iranian energy sites and bridges if no deal is reached.

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Reports in Iranian media over the weekend suggest Iran is continuing to work on plans to potentially apply a toll to ships passing through the strait – although it’s unclear if such a move will be implemented.

Iranian state TV cites unnamed officials as saying that “continuation of the so-called naval blockade, violation of the ceasefire and threatening US rhetoric” are slowing progress in reaching an agreement.

Trump also accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, saying more commercial ships have been attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

A UK maritime agency reported two commercial ships came under fire in the strait on Saturday.

Iran’s foreign minister had said on Friday that the strait would be opened – which was shortly followed by Trump saying the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until a deal is reached. Iran has since said the strait is closed again.

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Video: 8 Children Killed in Louisiana Shooting, Police Say

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Video: 8 Children Killed in Louisiana Shooting, Police Say

new video loaded: 8 Children Killed in Louisiana Shooting, Police Say

A gunman shot 10 people, killing eight children, in a domestic violence shooting at multiple locations in Shreveport, La., the police said. The victims ranged in age from 1 to 14. The gunman was later fatally shot by officers.

By Christina Kelso

April 19, 2026

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Communities launch cleanup after severe weather and tornadoes churn across Midwest

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Communities launch cleanup after severe weather and tornadoes churn across Midwest

An aerial view shows damage from a tornado, on Saturday in Lena, Ill.

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Communities across the Upper Midwest are cleaning up after tornadoes and severe weather impacted the region over the weekend, damaging and destroying dozens of homes and knocking out power for tens of thousands.

“Numerous” severe storms were tracked across parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri on Friday, according to the National Weather Service. At least 66 tornado reports were submitted in multiple states including Oklahoma, Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin and Iowa, the NWS Quad Cities IA/IL office said Sunday.

No deaths have been reported from the severe weather and tornado outbreak.

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In Marion Township in Minnesota, about 30 homes were damaged and a dozen have significant damage because of a tornado, according to the Olmsted County Sheriff’s Office. The tornado also damaged at least 20 homes in Stewartville and there is a temporary shelter in Rochester for people displaced by the storms, according to MPR News.

“Tornado disaster recovery continues to occur at full speed,” the Olmsted County Sheriff’s Office said on Saturday.

In Illinois, McClean County officials declared a disaster emergency because of severe storms in Bloomington. “At this time, no injuries have been reported, and emergency response agencies remain actively engaged to ensure public safety and continuity of essential services,” officials said in a statement.

But further north in the village of Lena, an EF-2 tornado caused the “most significant damage” where “many homes and outbuildings were damaged, trees uprooted, and power lines downed,” the NWS said. Numerous roads have also been blocked by debris, the Stephenson County Sheriff’s Office also said.

People continue to clean up following tornado on April 18, 2026 in Lena, Illinois.

People continue to clean up following a tornado, on Saturday in Lena, Ill.

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There have been no fatalities and no reports of serious injuries associated with the storm, Chief Deputy Andy Schroeder from the Stephenson County Sheriff’s Office told NPR on Sunday.

More than 43,000 customers lost power in Illinois but power was restored to almost all of them by Saturday night, according to electric utility ComEd.

Several tornadoes also occurred across Wisconsin, according to the NWS office in La Crosse. Twenty-six tornado warnings were issued by the office on Friday, the most in one day since the weather service office was built in 1995.

In one Marathon County town, 75 homes were destroyed by a tornado, according to Ringle Fire Chief Chris Kielman.

“It took out a whole residential area,” Kielman said, according to Wisconsin Public Radio.

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The American Red Cross of Wisconsin said volunteers are helping those impacted by the storm with meals, shelter and support.

Parts of the state are still dealing with multiple rounds of severe weather and tornadoes from earlier in the week that brought flooding to some communities.

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