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Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

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Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN


Taipei, Taiwan
CNN
 — 

Taiwan has seen a gap in its protection plans that’s steadily getting greater. And it’s not one simply plugged by boosting the finances or shopping for extra weapons.

The island democracy of 23.5 million is going through an growing problem in recruiting sufficient younger males to satisfy its navy targets and its Inside Ministry has urged the issue is – at the least partially – resulting from its stubbornly low beginning price.

Taiwan’s inhabitants fell for the primary time in 2020, in accordance with the ministry, which warned earlier this yr that the 2022 navy consumption can be the bottom in a decade and {that a} continued drop within the youth inhabitants would pose a “enormous problem” for the long run.

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That’s dangerous information at a time when Taiwan is making an attempt to bolster its forces to discourage any potential invasion by China, whose ruling Communist Occasion has been making more and more belligerent noises about its willpower to “reunify” with the self-governed island – which it has by no means managed – by power if needed.

And the outlook has darkened additional with the discharge of a brand new report by Taiwan’s Nationwide Improvement Council projecting that by 2035 the island can anticipate roughly 20,000 fewer births per yr than the 153,820 it recorded in 2021. By 2035, Taiwan will even overtake South Korea because the jurisdiction with the world’s lowest beginning price, the report added.

Such projections are feeding right into a debate over whether or not the federal government ought to improve the interval of necessary navy service that eligible younger males should serve. At present, the island has an expert navy power made up of 162,000 (as of June this yr) – 7,000 fewer than the goal, in accordance with a report by the Legislative Yuan. Along with that quantity, all eligible males should serve 4 months of coaching as reservists.

Altering the necessary service requirement can be a serious U-turn for Taiwan, which had beforehand been making an attempt to chop down on conscription and shortened the necessary service from 12 months as lately as 2018. However on Wednesday, Taiwan’s Minister of Nationwide Defence Chiu Kuo-cheng stated such plans can be made public earlier than the tip of the yr.

That information has met with opposition amongst some younger college students in Taiwan, who’ve voiced their frustrations on PTT, Taiwan’s model of Reddit, even when there may be help for the transfer among the many wider public.

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A ballot by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Basis in March this yr discovered that almost all Taiwanese agreed with a proposal to elongate the service interval. It discovered that 75.9% of respondents thought it cheap to increase it to a yr; solely 17.8% have been opposed.

Many specialists argue there may be merely no different choice.

Su Tzu-yun, a director of Taiwan’s Institute for Nationwide Protection and Safety Analysis, stated that earlier than 2016, the pool of males eligible to affix the navy – both as profession troopers or as reservists – was about 110,000. Since then, he stated, the quantity had declined yearly and the pool would possible be as little as 74,000 by 2025.

And inside the subsequent decade, Su stated, the variety of younger adults accessible for recruitment by the Taiwanese navy might drop by as a lot as a 3rd.

“This can be a nationwide safety problem for us,” he stated. “The inhabitants pool is reducing, so we’re actively contemplating whether or not to renew conscription to satisfy our navy wants.

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“We are actually going through an growing menace (from China), and we have to have extra firepower and manpower.”

Taiwan’s low beginning price – 0.98 – is way under the two.1 wanted to keep up a steady inhabitants, however it’s no outlier in East Asia.

In November, South Korea broke its personal world report when its beginning price dropped to 0.79, whereas Japan’s fell to 1.3 and mainland China hit 1.15.

Even so, specialists say the pattern poses a novel downside for Taiwan’s navy, given the relative measurement of the island and the threats it faces.

China has been making more and more aggressive noises towards the island since August, when then-US Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taipei. Not lengthy after she landed in Taiwan, Beijing additionally launched a collection of unprecedented navy workout routines across the island.

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Since then, the temperature has remained excessive – significantly as Chinese language chief Xi Jinping advised a key Communist Occasion assembly in October that “reunification” was inevitable and that he reserves the choice of taking “all measures needed.”

Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air power, stated that whereas low beginning charges have been widespread throughout East Asia, “the state of affairs in Taiwan may be very completely different” because the island was going through “an increasing number of stress (from China) and the state of affairs will develop into extra acute.”

“The US has navy bases in Japan and South Korea, whereas Singapore doesn’t face an acute navy menace from its neighbors. Taiwan faces the best menace and declining beginning price will make the state of affairs much more critical,” he added.

Roy Lee, a deputy government director at Taiwan’s Chung-hua Establishment for Financial Analysis, agreed that the safety threats going through Taiwan have been higher than these in the remainder of the area.

“The state of affairs is tougher for Taiwan, as a result of our inhabitants base is smaller than different nations going through comparable issues,” he added.

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Taiwan’s inhabitants is 23.5 million, in comparison with South Korea’s 52 million, Japan’s 126 million and China’s 1.4 billion.

Apart from the shrinking recruitment pool, the decline within the youth inhabitants might additionally threaten the long-term efficiency of Taiwan’s economic system – which is itself a pillar of the island’s protection.

Taiwan is the world’s twenty first largest economic system, in accordance with the London-based Centre for Economics and Enterprise Analysis, and had a GDP of $668.51 billion final yr.

A lot of its financial heft comes from its main function within the provide of semiconductor chips, which play an indispensable function in all the pieces from smartphones to computer systems.

Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor big TSMC is perceived as being so invaluable to the worldwide economic system – in addition to to China – that it’s generally known as forming a part of a “silicon defend” towards a possible navy invasion by Beijing, as its presence would give a powerful incentive to the West to intervene.

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Lee famous that inhabitants ranges are intently intertwined with gross home product, a broad measure of financial exercise. A inhabitants decline of 200,000 folks might end in a 0.4% decline in GDP, all else being equal, he stated.

“It is extremely tough to extend GDP by 0.4%, and would require a variety of effort. So the truth that a declining inhabitants can take away that a lot development is large,” he stated.

Taiwan’s authorities has introduced in a collection of measures aimed toward encouraging folks to have infants, however with restricted success.

It pays dad and mom a month-to-month stipend of 5,000 Taiwan {dollars} (US$161) for his or her first child, and a better quantity for every extra one.

Since final yr, pregnant ladies have been eligible for seven days of depart for obstetrics checks previous to giving beginning.

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Outdoors the navy, within the wider economic system, the island has been encouraging migrant staff to fill job vacancies.

Statistics from the Nationwide Improvement Council confirmed that about 670,000 migrant staff have been in Taiwan on the finish of final yr – comprising about 3% of the inhabitants.

Many of the migrant staff are employed within the manufacturing sector, the council stated, the overwhelming majority of them from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Lee stated in the long run the Taiwanese authorities would possible must reform its immigration insurance policies to herald extra migrant staff.

Nonetheless, there are those that say Taiwan’s low beginning price isn’t any motive to panic, simply but.

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Alice Cheng, an affiliate professor in sociology at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, cautioned towards studying an excessive amount of into inhabitants traits as they have been affected by so many elements.

She identified that just some a long time in the past, many demographers have been warning of meals shortages brought on by a inhabitants explosion.

And even when the low beginning price endured, that may be no dangerous factor if it have been a mirrored image of an enchancment in ladies’s rights, she stated.

“The academic enlargement that occurred within the 70s and 80s in East Asia dramatically modified ladies’s standing. It actually pushed ladies out of their houses as a result of that they had data, training and profession prospects,” she stated.

“The subsequent factor you see globally is that after ladies’s training stage improved, fertility charges began declining.”

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“All these East Asian nations are actually scratching their head and making an attempt to consider insurance policies and interventions to spice up fertility charges,” she added.

“But when that’s one thing that basically, (ladies) don’t need, are you able to push them to do this?”

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Far-right minister threatens to quit Israeli government over Gaza ceasefire deal

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Far-right minister threatens to quit Israeli government over Gaza ceasefire deal

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Israel’s far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said on Thursday evening he would pull his Jewish Power party out of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government if it implemented the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Mediators said on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had agreed a multiphase deal to halt the 15-month-old war and free the 98 hostages still held in Gaza.

However Ben-Gvir and his ultranationalist ally, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, have repeatedly threatened to leave Netanyahu’s government if it accepts an agreement that ends the war.

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Ben-Gvir repeated that threat on Thursday, but said his party could return to the government if it subsequently resumed the war.

Netanyahu’s cabinet will gather on Friday to discuss approval of the Gaza ceasefire deal, according to an Israeli official, after the premier previously delayed the meeting, accusing Hamas of backtracking on the agreement.

The departure of Jewish Power would leave Netanyahu’s coalition with a two-seat majority in Israel’s parliament.

It would also pile pressure on Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party to pull out of Netanyahu’s government, a move that would be likely to cost the veteran premier his majority.

This is a developing story

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‘Criminal, you belong to ICJ’: Antony Blinken heckled by journalists on Gaza policy during his last conference

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‘Criminal, you belong to ICJ’: Antony Blinken heckled by journalists on Gaza policy during his last conference

Outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday found himself at the centre of stark criticism from journalists and critics who vehemently slammed the Biden administration’s foreign policy on the Gaza conflict. Blinken was delivering his final press conference.

After Husseini’s outburst, security personnel quickly intervened and took him away from the room.(AP)

“Criminal! You belong in The Hague,” shouted Sam Husseini while condemning Blinken’s handling of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Reuters reported.

Husseini’s outburst referred to The Hague, where lies the International Criminal Court. This is where Israel is facing accusations of genocide and war crimes for its military offensive in Gaza.

After Husseini’s outburst, security personnel quickly intervened and took him away from the room as he continued his protest.

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The extraordinary scene unfolded at the State Department where several journalists were repeatedly interrupting Blinken’s final press conference as he sought to defend his handling of Israel’s 15-month war with Hamas.

“Why did you keep the bombs flowing when we had a deal in May?” Max Blumenthal, editor of the Grayzone, an outlet that strongly criticized many aspects of US foreign policy, called out to Blinken before he was escorted out.

Antony Blinken’s reaction

Blinken, who is set to leave office on January 20 after Trump’s inauguration has been under tight scrutiny for providing Israel with weapons and diplomatic support since the onset of the Hamas conflict.

Blinken has been frequently heckled at appearances in Washington since the Gaza conflict began. Demonstrators camped outside his Virginia home for months and repeatedly threw red paint – resembling blood – on cars carrying Blinken and his family.

Today, he calmly asked for quiet while he delivered his remarks, and later took questions from reporters.

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“I’d also point out that in Israel itself, there are hundreds of cases being investigated,” Blinken added, referring to internal Israeli inquiries into potential violations of international law.

“They have a process, they have procedures, they have rule of law… That’s the hallmark of any democracy.”

Asked during the press conference if he would change anything about his dealings with Israel, Blinken said the Israeli government had carried out policies that “were supported by an overwhelming majority of Israelis after the trauma of October 7” and said that had to be factored into the US response.

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As Governor, Burgum Promised to Manage Conflicts. They Still Cropped Up.

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As Governor, Burgum Promised to Manage Conflicts. They Still Cropped Up.

On the day after Doug Burgum became governor of North Dakota in 2016, he addressed questions about what he would do about all of his wealthy investments.

They included extensive real estate developments benefiting from state programs that he was suddenly in a position to oversee. His answer was that he would “manage” his conflicts of interest, but he would not divest from his holdings in the state.

“The issue here is to make sure that I have no conflict of interest relative to many state programs and decisions,” he said at the time in an interview with a local newspaper.

Since then, however, his range of holdings, which include extensive urban real estate development in the state, tens of millions in technology investments as well as oil and gas leases, intersected with his policy decisions as governor, a New York Times review has found.

That is particularly true for extensive development efforts in downtown Fargo that have been the beneficiaries of targeted state and federal tax benefits. But at the time, he did not disclose the specifics of any potential conflicts or how he managed them.

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Now, as Donald J. Trump’s pick for secretary of the interior, Mr. Burgum could face questions about how he plans to avoid conflicts in leading an agency with vast influence over the use of public lands in ways that reverberate for landholders, energy producers and others.

Rob Lockwood, a spokesman for Mr. Burgum, said in an email to The New York Times: “Everyone who knows Doug Burgum knows that he is a man of outstanding character and ethics who complied with all guidelines as governor.”

Mr. Burgum, whose confirmation hearing is scheduled for Thursday, said in an agreement with the Office of Government Ethics that he would divest from a few holdings that include oil and gas and mineral leases that could pose conflicts.

But he also said he would hold on to other investments that he had been advised might be financially affected by particular matters that could come before the interior secretary. These investments include a range of venture capital funds and some of his Fargo real estate developments, though he will resign from managerial duties in his companies. In those cases, he said, the ethics office had determined that he would be able to recuse himself from decisions that had an impact on those entities or get a waiver.

The Interior Department has long been susceptible to ethical concerns. It has influence over how vast tracts of mineral-rich federal land can be used. During Mr. Trump’s first term, the department became a center of allegations and investigations about conflicts of interest involving high-ranking officials, including the two men who served as its secretary.

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Federal law has much stricter disclosure and recusal standards than Mr. Burgum operated under as North Dakota’s governor. It also has criminal prohibitions against officials becoming involved in decisions that could personally benefit themselves or family members.

Mr. Burgum previously disclosed his detailed financial assets for the first time in 2023 as a presidential candidate. An updated version he submitted recently was released by the government ethics office on Wednesday ahead of his hearing, showing a range of assets that could puts his net worth well over $100 million.

While Mr. Burgum was governor, his policies included expanding a state tax program targeted narrowly at real estate development firms like his own that were seeking to revitalize aging downtowns.

His firm, called Kilbourne after his mother’s maiden name, was one of a handful of developers in the state relying in a significant way on such tax breaks and by far the largest in Fargo, according to local officials. He also gave final approval to the zones that benefited from a federal tax credit program, which included areas with his company’s projects in them.

Mr. Burgum was not paid a salary by Kilbourne and “had zero operational authority,” Mr. Lockwood said.

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Still, Mr. Burgum continued to have investments in the company’s projects and maintained formal positions in their entities, financial disclosure forms show.

While Mr. Burgum was in office, questions about other ethical choices emerged, including his use of a luxury box at the Super Bowl provided by a regional electricity utility.

After the tickets were reported by The Associated Press, Mr. Burgum said he accepted them to have “quality time” with company executives and he repaid the utility $37,000.

The controversy prompted the governor’s office to enact an ethics policy stating that office officials should “take great care to avoid conflicts of interest or even the perception of a conflict of interest,” including in cases of overseeing policies that involve personal business interests. But the guidelines did not state what actions should be taken when an appearance of a conflict arose.

More enforceable state ethics rules requiring disclosures of potential conflicts of interest did not go into effect until 2022, the result of a 2018 ballot initiative.

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Ethics experts in North Dakota and outside the state say that under generally understood norms, Mr. Burgum probably should have made more disclosures about potential conflicts and how he would mitigate them.

“Even a small appearance is enough to trigger an obligation to be open to the public,” said Kedric Payne, a government ethics expert with the Campaign Legal Center.

In his first State of the State address, in 2017, Mr. Burgum laid out an unusual plan for a state that was one of the most sparsely populated in the country: Go urban.

“It takes safe, healthy cities with vibrant, walkable main streets and downtowns to attract and retain a skilled work force,” he said.

In Mr. Burgum’s vision — built upon his mother’s reverence for historic buildings — North Dakota towns would grow upward rather than outward.

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His dream also aligned with his business strategy.

For more than a decade, he had been focusing his development interests in downtown Fargo, eventually becoming one of the state’s biggest urban developers. He also became one of the most reliant on a government tax incentive program called Renaissance Zones.

The program gave state tax incentives for companies that invested in neglected neighborhoods. Mr. Burgum quickly made use of them as well as other similar tax break programs, through acquiring and renovating a turn-of-the-century manufacturing building that was scheduled for demolition, and then turning it over to the local university.

The program allows for state income tax exemption for five years, offering investors in big projects to save up to hundreds of thousands of dollars a year per project in property tax savings.

Twenty Kilbourne projects worth about $300 million have received the Renaissance designation, Jim Gilmour, the city’s director of strategic planning and research, said in an interview. Each of the Kilbourne Renaissance projects was approved individually by a number of city and county entities, with the state’s Commerce Department overseeing the program.

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As governor, Mr. Burgum eventually made an expansion of the program a plank in his economic agenda. In his State of the State speech in 2023, he proposed a “Renaissance Zone 2.0.” Among the changes, which were enacted by the Legislature and signed by Mr. Burgum, was a provision to allow for the tax benefits to last an extra three years.

(Kilbourne has not added any new Renaissance Zone projects since then, and Fargo’s county government so far has not agreed to adopt the expansion in benefits.)

Dustin Gawrylow, a longtime Republican critic of the program who unsuccessfully lobbied against the bill, said the perception of a conflict from Mr. Burgum’s status as a top Renaissance developer who could potentially benefit from the expansion was sometimes discussed behind closed doors around the State Capitol.

“It was brought up, but nobody really cared,” Mr. Gawrylow said.

Mr. Lockwood said that “local leaders, the media, and Fargoans are very aware of Doug’s decades-long efforts to revitalize the city.”

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While Mr. Burgum was running for governor in 2016, a different state tax break program he used became a subject of discussion on the campaign trail.

Mr. Burgum had founded in 2008 a firm called Arthur Ventures with his nephew, James Burgum, that had invested about $65 million in technology startups up to that point. The firm had taken advantage of a state angel investment tax break program, which provided benefits for certain funds that put money into small startups.

Two funds managed by Arthur Ventures earned investors $800,000 in tax benefits. But the program came under fire from Republican lawmakers for sending a large portion of the investments into out of state startups.

In March 2016, while Mr. Burgum was campaigning, James Burgum testified before the Legislature to try to help save the program that was under attack. The campaign of Doug Burgum’s Republican opponent called him the “poster child” for the problems with the program.

Mr. Lockwood said in his statement to The Times that “job creators being attacked by career-politician opponents for using a law designed to encourage economic investment, innovation and entrepreneurship in North Dakota was a ‘water is wet’ moment.”

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Later in the campaign, after Mr. Burgum’s Democratic opponent raised concerns about his ability to manage conflicts of interest, Mr. Burgum said he would “take all the appropriate steps to assure North Dakotans that I’m fully focused on serving them with integrity and transparency.”

After taking office, he explained that meant that he gave up his day-to-day management positions while maintaining his investments under the leadership of others.

But the federal disclosure Mr. Burgum filed to run for president in 2023 revealed that he did not entirely step away. He was listed in various positions ranging from manager and president for various Kilbourne-affiliated limited liability companies and maintained investments of around $15 million to $60 million in several dozen Kilbourne-related entities and funds.

Kilbourne’s managers downplayed his role in the firm, even as they highlighted his affiliation as helping to attract other investors. In an interview with a local publication, Lauris Molbert, Kilbourne’s executive chairman of the board, said the governor’s hefty investments were an important signal to other investors to get on board.

“He personally put his balance sheet to work,” Mr. Molbert said.

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In the spring of 2018, a state news release announced that Mr. Burgum had designated 25 neighborhoods in North Dakota to be opportunity zones.

Their designation was part of a new federal program similar to Renaissance Zones but devised to limit federal tax liability in order to help direct investment into struggling neighborhoods.

The idea, Mr. Burgum said, was to “help revitalize our low-income areas in North Dakota.”

Left unsaid, however, was that two of the neighborhoods chosen were ones where his firm owned properties it was hoping to develop. In the years that followed, Kilbourne developed five projects in those areas through two investment funds that offered the tax breaks, with Mr. Burgum’s stake valued between $2 million and $10 million, according to his 2023 financial disclosure.

The structure for the opportunity zones was enacted under the Trump administration, and governors were given leeway in selecting the zones as long as they met certain criteria.

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Under the system set up in North Dakota, the city and county of Fargo applied to the state’s Commerce Department for opportunity zone status for 11 areas, including the two containing the Kilbourne properties. Of those, Mr. Burgum designated the two with his properties and three others in the region.

Brett Theodos, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute who has studied the federal opportunity zone program, said he had never heard of such a prominent official tasked with designating the areas having a stake in the zones selected.

“A lot of the country qualified, so there were a lot of options for governors to choose from,” he said. “The whole trust-us approach is problematic.”

Tim Mahoney, Fargo’s mayor, said in an interview that initially he had concerns about whether Kilbourne might get favored in its extensive dealings with the city, but he has concluded that the treatment was aboveboard.

The city relies extensively on the approval of state loans and other sources of funding that are under the governor’s purview.

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Mr. Mahoney said he had not spoken to Mr. Burgum directly about any of Kilbourne’s business. But, he said, the governor had met with the planning department and pressured him and other city officials repeatedly to make downtown development a major priority, arguing that added properties build a tax base that supports schools, water, the police and city streets.

That fits with Mr. Burgum’s general evangelism for urbanism — and with where he has invested his money.

“The governor was very clear on what his bias was,” Mr. Mahoney said. “His bias is downtown places will make more in taxes for everybody.”

Russ Buettner contributed reporting.

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