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Opinion: Why Turkey is in a unique position to mediate

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Opinion: Why Turkey is in a unique position to mediate

Because the battle grinds on, a rising listing of nations are exploring the potential of mediating, stepping in to avert additional bloodshed and the battle spreading past Ukraine’s borders.

Earlier this month, Turkey hosted Ukrainian and Russian overseas ministers for a trilateral assembly in its southern metropolis of Antalya. Afterward, the Turkish overseas minister visited each Moscow and Kyiv. Likewise, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visited Moscow for a similar function. And China has signaled readiness for mediation. Probably different international locations, such because the United Arab Emirates, India or South Africa, would possibly get in line to dealer some type of decision.

Nearly all international locations which have vied for the mediation position have additionally engaged in a strategic balancing act between the West and Russia for a while. Serving an middleman position is a method for them to forestall additional disaster within the battle, and challenge worldwide stature. However it’s also a method for them to keep away from making tough decisions the battle would possibly pressure upon them, corresponding to selecting or tilting towards one facet extra clearly.

However the listing of fence-sitters within the Russia-Ukraine battle shouldn’t be confined to mediators. Many extra international locations have chosen to stay “impartial,” together with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Morocco. The rationale for abstaining differs between international locations, however some causes minimize throughout.

The worldwide system is altering. And the concept that the world is now not Western-centric, and more and more multipolar, is widespread within the non-Western world. It informs their insurance policies towards Russia, and towards China as properly.

So long as the dominant narrative of this battle is put in a West/NATO versus Russia dichotomy, it’s going to have little resonance within the non-Western world. Plus, the fence-sitting method can be a method of signaling discontent with the US/Western coverage.

It was illustrative that the rulers of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who rely on the US for his or her safety, shunned taking calls from President Joe Biden earlier this month. This snub was meant to convey their displeasure with the US for Washington’s inadequate assist for his or her botched Yemen marketing campaign.
From meals and vitality provides to geopolitical vulnerabilities, many different elements additionally outline their method. For example, regardless of its shut army ties with the US, Egypt relies upon closely on Moscow when it comes to its meals safety. It additionally carefully cooperates with Russia in Libya, with each supporting the warlord Khalifa Haftar. (Kyiv accuses Haftar of sending mercenaries to help Russia in Ukraine.)
Likewise India, regardless of needing the West as a countervailing pressure towards China, has lengthy maintained shut ties with Moscow; has bought the Russian-made S-400 missile techniques; and has pursued a coverage of balancing between Russia and the West.
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However of all these international locations sitting on the fence and making an attempt to mediate, Turkey has a novel profile and place. It’s a NATO member, a company for which Russia and beforehand the Soviet Union served as raison d’être or the foundational risk.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been more and more castigating the Western-centric worldwide system. However as a member of many Western establishments, Turkey can be a beneficiary, and in a way, a part of the geopolitical West.

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In the meantime, Turkey additionally has maritime borders with each Ukraine and Russia. Plus, Turkey is Russia’s largest commerce companion within the Center East and North Africa area. And it has competed and cooperated with Russia by way of battle zones in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh in recent times.

In comparison with different contenders for mediation, Turkey has the best stakes on this battle. The battle is essentially altering the geopolitics and stability of energy within the Black Sea area, and Turkey is a serious Black Sea energy.

Turkey will in all probability play a humanitarian position quickly, too, because the variety of refugees — already within the tens of millions — rises. French President Emanuel Macron’s announcement that France, Turkey and Greece will undertake a joint evacuation mission in Mariupol is a harbinger of a humanitarian position that may develop into extra salient in Erdogan’s coverage down the street.
Regardless of its coverage of not scary Russia, Turkey is concurrently not pursuing a coverage of equidistance. It sells armed drones to Ukraine, that are exacting important losses on Russian targets, and has closed the Turkish straits to warships.

Along with Russia dominating the Black Sea, it has a large Mediterranean presence the place it’s deeply concerned in conflicts spots in Syria and Libya. Turkey’s sea closure will put strain on Russian coverage in these battle zones if the battle is extended.

But not like different NATO members, Turkey has neither joined the Western sanctions towards Moscow nor closed its airspace to Russia. Doing so would have in all probability triggered a Russian veto towards Turkey’s quest for mediating the battle. And there are an growing variety of anti-war Russian activists and pro-Kremlin figures heading to Turkey.

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Turkey is principally making an attempt to be pro-Ukraine with out turning into too aggressively anti-Russia. Its capital metropolis, Ankara, is simply too deeply uncovered to Russia each economically and geopolitically. Russia is Turkey’s largest supply of vacationers, grain imports and gasoline.

In any case, at this stage, there’s not but any signal of the West pushing Turkey extra strongly in becoming a member of the sanction regime towards Moscow. And regardless of Turkey’s efforts, the battle shouldn’t be ripe for mediation but, as a result of Moscow nonetheless seems to be hellbent on the army possibility. This doesn’t imply that efforts or talks will stop on this battle; on the contrary, we’re more likely to see extra.

Russia desires to present the impression it’s fascinated with diplomacy to purchase time and stop additional Western sanctions, however to no avail. No breakthrough ought to be anticipated anytime quickly. Regardless of this, protecting the thought of a diplomatic course of alive continues to be essential. Plus, the mediation serves Turkey’s pursuits properly. It boosts its worldwide stature; turns Turkey into one of many main facilities of diplomacy on this battle; and delays among the tough selections that it would face down the street.

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That stated, because the battle drags on, Turkey’s earlier strategic juggling act could now not be possible, significantly as Russia is now extra brazenly handled as an enemy of NATO and European safety.

From imperial Ottoman instances to the current, Turkey and Russia have fought one another 13 instances, however they’ve additionally cooperated. Up to now, grievances vis-à-vis the West, and even anti-Westernism, have normally pushed them nearer to one another. Now, Russia’s geopolitical revisionism and Putin’s dramatic shift in post-Soviet ambitions will certainly drive an uneasy Turkey nearer towards the West.
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The Lyrid meteor shower is expected to dazzle the night sky beginning this week

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The Lyrid meteor shower is expected to dazzle the night sky beginning this week

(EDITORS NOTE: Multiple exposures were combined to produce this image.) Startrails are seen during the Lyrid meteor shower over Michaelskapelle on April 21, 2020 in Niederhollabrunn, Austria.

Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images Europe


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Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images Europe

The Lyrid meteor shower, one of the oldest annual meteor showers known to humankind, will once again grace Earth’s sky beginning this week.

This year, the meteors are expected to come into view on Wednesday night and last through April 25.

What exactly are the Lyrids?

The Lyrids, like all meteor showers, are the flying trails of debris left behind by comets, according to Bill Cooke, the lead of NASA’s Meteoroid Environments Office. This shower is the litter of Comet Thatcher, first documented in 1861 by A.E. Thatcher.

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“Thatcher left a debris trail that the Earth runs into the third week in April of every year, and that causes the shower when these bits of debris enter our atmosphere and burn up,” Cooke told NPR.

Amateur stargazers have come to know those pieces of incinerated detritus as shooting stars, darting meteors and fireballs.

Earthlings have been observing the Lyrids’ sky show for thousands of years, with the first recorded sighting in 687 B.C.

Thatcher is a relatively little-known comet that takes more than 400 years to orbit the sun, Cooke said. The last time it was in Earth’s line of sight was right around the start of the Civil War.

The comet itself will not enter Earth’s view again until the late 23rd century.

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Coincidentally, the Lyrids will coincide with another shower, the Eta Aquariids, which is expected to begin on Friday and last through May 28th. That shower is expected to peak on May 5 and 6, according to the American Meteor Society.

How can I watch the meteor shower?

The peak of the Lyrid shower this year is expected around April 21 and 22, when the tail is at its peak.

Luckily, no special equipment is required to observe the shower’s brilliant lights. The main requirement is a clear, dark sky.

“You’re not going to see meteors from downtown Manhattan or Central Park,” Cooke said. “You need to find the darkest sky you can, you need to lay flat on your back and look away from the moon.”

Give yourself 30 to 45 minutes for your eyes to adjust to the dark, Cooke said — and from there, simply enjoy the show.

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Video: How the White House Press Briefing Is Changing

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Video: How the White House Press Briefing Is Changing

The Trump administration is considering taking control of the seating in the White House press briefing room from the independent White House Correspondents’ Association. Ashley Wu, a graphics reporter for The New York Times, explains why this matters and notes how questions at the briefings have already started to change.

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Nvidia to take $5.5bn hit as US clamps down on exports of AI chips to China

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Nvidia to take .5bn hit as US clamps down on exports of AI chips to China

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Donald Trump’s administration is clamping down on Nvidia’s ability to sell artificial intelligence chips to China, sending the Silicon Valley giant’s shares sliding in pre-market trading and hitting Wall Street tech stocks.

Nvidia revealed new US controls on American chipmakers’ sales to China in a late-night regulatory filing on Tuesday, in which it said it expected to take a $5.5bn earnings hit as a result.

The curbs were subsequently confirmed by the commerce department, marking another escalation in Donald Trump’s trade war with Beijing.

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The chipmaker said its H20 chip, which is already tailored to comply with Joe Biden-era export controls that prevent the sale of its most powerful chips in China, would now require a special licence to be sold to Chinese customers.

It is still unclear how many such licences will be granted, but Nvidia said it would take a $5.5bn charge in the quarter to April 27 related to H20 chips for “inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves”.

Analysts estimate Nvidia will generate about $17bn in sales to Chinese customers in the current financial year.

Nvidia’s shares fell 7 per cent in pre-market trading on Wednesday, while futures tracking the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 index were down more than 2 per cent.

Shares in Dutch chipmaking equipment company ASML sank 6 per cent after orders of its machines fell short of expectations. Shares in US semiconductor group AMD also fell almost 6 per cent in pre-market trading.

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Stocks in Hong Kong also fell, led by leading AI chip buyers Alibaba, down almost 4 per cent, Baidu and Tencent, which both fell about 2 per cent.

The new US chip controls mark the latest salvo in a spiralling trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Earlier this month, the Trump administration imposed additional tariffs of 145 per cent on China, with a reprieve for some consumer electronics. Beijing matched the additional duties in retaliation.

The shortage of domestic chip suppliers in China able to build products to rival those of Nvidia had meant its tech companies were flocking to buy H20s, even in the face of Beijing’s steep import duties.

But that could change under the new US controls. Since the H20 chip is less powerful than those Nvidia can sell outside China, customers in the rest of the world may also be unwilling to buy up stock that cannot be sold there.

Bernstein analysts on Tuesday said the H20 accounted for about $12bn of Nvidia’s $17bn revenues in China over the past year. They added that there was still a lack of clarity on whether licences might be granted, or whether it amounted to a full “wipeout” of the product line.

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Nvidia said it was notified of the new controls on April 9 and was told on Monday that the licence requirement for H20 and any similar chips “will be in effect for the indefinite future”.

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt urged China to cut a new trade deal with the US, saying, “the ball is in China’s court”.

The US commerce department later confirmed it was issuing new export licensing requirements for the H20, as well as AMD’s MI308 and equivalent chips. It said it was “acting on the president’s directive to safeguard our national and economic security”.

The US move underscores Nvidia’s exposure to geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing. The chip designer has been at the heart of the AI boom, and briefly last year became the world’s most valuable company.

On Monday, the Trump administration launched a national security probe that could lead to new tariffs on semiconductors, as it holds off from immediately applying steeper levies on chips.

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Nvidia’s chips are manufactured in Taiwan, so they could be subject to import duties when sold to US-based customers.

The company said on Monday it would spend up to half a trillion dollars on US AI infrastructure over the next four years through partnerships with companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Foxconn. The Financial Times had first reported on its investment plans.

Nvidia introduced its China-focused H20 processors last year after the Biden administration imposed export controls on its chips. They are less powerful than its top range of graphics processing units, or GPUs, coveted by Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta and Amazon.

Despite its reduced performance, the H20 has still seen solid demand in China. But Beijing has taken steps to encourage local tech companies to use homegrown chips from companies such as Huawei, and could freeze out Nvidia’s products with new energy efficiency rules.

Video: Nvidia’s rise in the age of AI | FT Film
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