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Opinion: Why Turkey is in a unique position to mediate

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Opinion: Why Turkey is in a unique position to mediate

Because the battle grinds on, a rising listing of nations are exploring the potential of mediating, stepping in to avert additional bloodshed and the battle spreading past Ukraine’s borders.

Earlier this month, Turkey hosted Ukrainian and Russian overseas ministers for a trilateral assembly in its southern metropolis of Antalya. Afterward, the Turkish overseas minister visited each Moscow and Kyiv. Likewise, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visited Moscow for a similar function. And China has signaled readiness for mediation. Probably different international locations, such because the United Arab Emirates, India or South Africa, would possibly get in line to dealer some type of decision.

Nearly all international locations which have vied for the mediation position have additionally engaged in a strategic balancing act between the West and Russia for a while. Serving an middleman position is a method for them to forestall additional disaster within the battle, and challenge worldwide stature. However it’s also a method for them to keep away from making tough decisions the battle would possibly pressure upon them, corresponding to selecting or tilting towards one facet extra clearly.

However the listing of fence-sitters within the Russia-Ukraine battle shouldn’t be confined to mediators. Many extra international locations have chosen to stay “impartial,” together with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Morocco. The rationale for abstaining differs between international locations, however some causes minimize throughout.

The worldwide system is altering. And the concept that the world is now not Western-centric, and more and more multipolar, is widespread within the non-Western world. It informs their insurance policies towards Russia, and towards China as properly.

So long as the dominant narrative of this battle is put in a West/NATO versus Russia dichotomy, it’s going to have little resonance within the non-Western world. Plus, the fence-sitting method can be a method of signaling discontent with the US/Western coverage.

It was illustrative that the rulers of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who rely on the US for his or her safety, shunned taking calls from President Joe Biden earlier this month. This snub was meant to convey their displeasure with the US for Washington’s inadequate assist for his or her botched Yemen marketing campaign.
From meals and vitality provides to geopolitical vulnerabilities, many different elements additionally outline their method. For example, regardless of its shut army ties with the US, Egypt relies upon closely on Moscow when it comes to its meals safety. It additionally carefully cooperates with Russia in Libya, with each supporting the warlord Khalifa Haftar. (Kyiv accuses Haftar of sending mercenaries to help Russia in Ukraine.)
Likewise India, regardless of needing the West as a countervailing pressure towards China, has lengthy maintained shut ties with Moscow; has bought the Russian-made S-400 missile techniques; and has pursued a coverage of balancing between Russia and the West.
Biden's declaration that Putin 'cannot remain in power' was not a gaffe

However of all these international locations sitting on the fence and making an attempt to mediate, Turkey has a novel profile and place. It’s a NATO member, a company for which Russia and beforehand the Soviet Union served as raison d’être or the foundational risk.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been more and more castigating the Western-centric worldwide system. However as a member of many Western establishments, Turkey can be a beneficiary, and in a way, a part of the geopolitical West.

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In the meantime, Turkey additionally has maritime borders with each Ukraine and Russia. Plus, Turkey is Russia’s largest commerce companion within the Center East and North Africa area. And it has competed and cooperated with Russia by way of battle zones in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh in recent times.

In comparison with different contenders for mediation, Turkey has the best stakes on this battle. The battle is essentially altering the geopolitics and stability of energy within the Black Sea area, and Turkey is a serious Black Sea energy.

Turkey will in all probability play a humanitarian position quickly, too, because the variety of refugees — already within the tens of millions — rises. French President Emanuel Macron’s announcement that France, Turkey and Greece will undertake a joint evacuation mission in Mariupol is a harbinger of a humanitarian position that may develop into extra salient in Erdogan’s coverage down the street.
Regardless of its coverage of not scary Russia, Turkey is concurrently not pursuing a coverage of equidistance. It sells armed drones to Ukraine, that are exacting important losses on Russian targets, and has closed the Turkish straits to warships.

Along with Russia dominating the Black Sea, it has a large Mediterranean presence the place it’s deeply concerned in conflicts spots in Syria and Libya. Turkey’s sea closure will put strain on Russian coverage in these battle zones if the battle is extended.

But not like different NATO members, Turkey has neither joined the Western sanctions towards Moscow nor closed its airspace to Russia. Doing so would have in all probability triggered a Russian veto towards Turkey’s quest for mediating the battle. And there are an growing variety of anti-war Russian activists and pro-Kremlin figures heading to Turkey.

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Turkey is principally making an attempt to be pro-Ukraine with out turning into too aggressively anti-Russia. Its capital metropolis, Ankara, is simply too deeply uncovered to Russia each economically and geopolitically. Russia is Turkey’s largest supply of vacationers, grain imports and gasoline.

In any case, at this stage, there’s not but any signal of the West pushing Turkey extra strongly in becoming a member of the sanction regime towards Moscow. And regardless of Turkey’s efforts, the battle shouldn’t be ripe for mediation but, as a result of Moscow nonetheless seems to be hellbent on the army possibility. This doesn’t imply that efforts or talks will stop on this battle; on the contrary, we’re more likely to see extra.

Russia desires to present the impression it’s fascinated with diplomacy to purchase time and stop additional Western sanctions, however to no avail. No breakthrough ought to be anticipated anytime quickly. Regardless of this, protecting the thought of a diplomatic course of alive continues to be essential. Plus, the mediation serves Turkey’s pursuits properly. It boosts its worldwide stature; turns Turkey into one of many main facilities of diplomacy on this battle; and delays among the tough selections that it would face down the street.

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That stated, because the battle drags on, Turkey’s earlier strategic juggling act could now not be possible, significantly as Russia is now extra brazenly handled as an enemy of NATO and European safety.

From imperial Ottoman instances to the current, Turkey and Russia have fought one another 13 instances, however they’ve additionally cooperated. Up to now, grievances vis-à-vis the West, and even anti-Westernism, have normally pushed them nearer to one another. Now, Russia’s geopolitical revisionism and Putin’s dramatic shift in post-Soviet ambitions will certainly drive an uneasy Turkey nearer towards the West.
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A storm will bring heavy snow and dangerous ice from the Plains to the East Coast

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A storm will bring heavy snow and dangerous ice from the Plains to the East Coast

The National Weather Service’s Winter Storm Severity Index shows areas predicted to be impacted by the storm.

NWS Weather Prediction Center/Screenshot by NPR


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NWS Weather Prediction Center/Screenshot by NPR

The first weekend of 2025 is having the coldest air of the season, according to the National Weather Service. The first significant winter storm of the year will impact 62 million people through the weekend and into Monday.

Heavy snow, ice, rain and severe thunderstorms will be unleashed from the Plains to the East Coast. While snow and ice has been limited to the northern states this winter, the upcoming storm will impact areas less prone to winter weather.

“The major winter storm will bring significant disruptions to the Central Plains by late Saturday, spreading to the Ohio Valley on Sunday,” the NWS said.

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Travel delays are likely as the storm is forecast to reach the mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Severe thunderstorms are expected in areas with warmer temperatures. The storm could also impact Texas and Mississippi, which are still recovering from last month’s deadly storms.

States are gearing up for heavy snowfall and hazardous conditions 

A nasty mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain is expected to disrupt travel and daily life in the central United States, according to the NWS Winter Storm Severity Index.

The storm will begin with a deep surge of moist air moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico, which will spread rain and snow over the Plains. As it strengthens and expands, it will track east and spread into the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest on Sunday morning, and reach the East Coast by Sunday night and Monday morning.

Officials have already begun preparing for the worst. On Friday, Missouri Gov. Mike Parson put the National Guard on standby, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia declared a state of emergency. Youngkin has urged people to avoid traveling on Sunday.

“I’m encouraging all Virginians, visitors, and travelers to stay alert, monitor the weather forecast, and prepare now for any potential impacts,” Youngkin said in a statement.

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States of emergency have also been declared in Kentucky and Arkansas. In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear said in a press conference that emergency warming centers will open on Sunday and people should stay off the roads.

Major cities such as Chicago, St. Louis and Washington, D.C., have also begun pretreating their roads and preparing warming centers.

For those needing to rebook flights due to the storms, American Airlines, Delta, Southwest and United all said they were waiving certain change fees at some locations.

Near-blizzard conditions are expected in the Central Plains 

Heavy snowfall and wind gusts of over 40 mph could create blizzard conditions in the Central Plains by Sunday morning. The region from central Kansas to Indiana may get at least 8 inches of snow, with potential lingering snow showers on Monday.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center said that the most extreme conditions will likely be in places running along the Interstate 70 Corridor, which passes through St. Louis and Indianapolis.

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There is also “significant icing potential” mainly in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky this weekend, according to forecasters. Icing is when rain freezes on contact with the ground. It can also affect cars and car windows — essentially any surface outside.

A thin layer of ice can cause dangerous road conditions for vehicles and pedestrians. Thicker layers of ice can cause power outages and make roads impassable. In 2023, a January ice storm stretching from Texas to Tennessee left hundreds of thousands without power.

Thunderstorms expected in warmer climates

States too warm for snow will also experience extreme weather. Severe thunderstorms are likely on Sunday in parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

The Southeast is expected to see the heaviest rainfall, and the storm could cause flooding. There is also an enhanced risk of thunderstorms in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

This storm is expected to pass by late Monday. It will exit the East Coast on Monday night and fully diminish its impact overnight. But temperatures are expected to plunge on Tuesday. The eastern two-thirds of the U.S. will see temperatures 30 degrees below normal, and the frigid air could last until mid-January.

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New Orleans Releases Most Names of Victims Killed in Attack

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New Orleans Releases Most Names of Victims Killed in Attack

Things had been looking up for Elliot Wilkinson, a 40-year-old man who was among the 14 people killed in New Orleans this week in what federal authorities were investigating as a terrorist attack.

Mr. Wilkinson had been released from prison and was homeless, but he had started searching for an apartment, according to a local homeless outreach group, Unity of Greater New Orleans. And he was back in one of his favorite places, according to his brother, Cecil Wilkinson.

“That’s where he wanted to go, when he got out, so that’s where he went,” the brother said. “He loved that city.”

Elliot WilkinsonCredit…via Cecil Wilkinson

In the early hours of New Year’s Day, a Texas man drove a pickup into the city’s French Quarter, where crowds of people had gathered along Bourbon Street to celebrate. Fourteen people were killed, and dozens more injured, including two police officers hurt during a shootout that killed the driver.

Bourbon Street’s bars, live music and crowds draw a lively but diverse mix of people, including tourists, buskers and homeless people down on their luck. On a holiday night, it drew a youthful crowd. Many of the victims were in their teens and twenties.

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On Friday evening, the city released the names of 12 of the 14 victims. All had died of blunt force injuries, according to the emailed release. A thirteenth victim was identified by the Metropolitan Police in London as a British citizen: Edward Pettifer, aged 31. One person had not yet been identified.

As their names were revealed this week, friends and families mourned the promising futures cut short. Some had just started college or new jobs. On Friday, people gathered near flowers and candles arranged along the path that the truck had taken. President Biden was planning to visit on Monday and meet with the victims’ families and others affected.

Among the victims was Drew Dauphin, 26, who had come to the city from Alabama with his little brother, Matthew. They had gotten separated after going to a concert and getting some pizza. Hubert Gauthreaux, 21, had planned to watch the fireworks along the river, he told his family. That morning they checked his phone’s location, and saw it had moved to Bourbon Street.

Matthew Tenedorio, 25, had gone out with friends after eating dinner with his parents. He was remembered for his childhood high jinks with his cousins, playing pranks and fighting with Nerf guns.

Kareem Badawi and Ni’Kyra Cheyenne Dedeaux were just 18. Mr. Badawi had recently finished his first semester at the University of Alabama, where he majored in mechanical engineering, according to his father.

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Ni’Kyra Cheyenne DedeauxCredit…Jennifer Smith

Ms. Dedeaux was from Gulfport, Miss. She had just graduated from high school in the spring and was enrolling in college in New Orleans with plans to become a nurse.

The violence tore apart families and friends. Nicole Perez, 27, had just gotten a promotion at the deli where she worked. She left behind a 4-year-old son. Two cousins, Reggie Hunter, 37, and Kevin Curry, 38, came to the city to celebrate the new year together. Mr. Hunter died, and Mr. Curry was hospitalized with a broken leg.

Nicole PerezCredit…Emily Elliott

Tiger Bech, a former college football player who died, was remembered by his little brother, Jack, in a post on social media: “Love you always brother!”

Some victims, like Mr. Wilkinson, had longstanding ties to New Orleans. Terrence Kennedy, 63, was a lifelong resident of the city and one of nine siblings, according to one of his nieces, Monisha James. With no children of his own, he was always ready to look after family members’ kids, she said. At family parties, he kept an eye out for plates to clear and drinks to refill.

Terrence KennedyCredit…via Monisha James

Though many locals avoid the area except to work or perform, Mr. Kennedy loved to people watch and hang out outside of a shop on Bourbon Street, Ms. James. The family believes that is what drew him to the street on New Year’s Eve.

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“He died doing something he liked to do,” she said.

Brandon Taylor, 43, was a restaurant cook and rapper. He regularly drove more than an hour from his home just south of New Orleans to see his fiancée, Heather Genusa, who lives near Baton Rouge. Ms. Genusa, 38, recalled that they talked on the phone for about six months before meeting in person in early 2023.

Brandon TaylorCredit…via Heather Genusa

“I said once we meet, all the stars were going to align,” she said. “And they did. They really did.”

The couple were planning to move in together next month.

According to the city’s coroner, William Dimaio, 25, from New Jersey, was also among those killed.

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Cecil Wilkinson said he had hoped to introduce his daughter to Elliot, but had not yet had the chance.

“We loved each other,” he said. “We always looked out for each other when we was younger.”

Some of the dozens of people injured in the attack were still hospitalized Saturday. Others had returned home but were still wrestling with what they had been through. Alexis Scott-Windham, 23, of Mobile, Ala., who had gone to New Orleans with friends to celebrate New Year’s, said the attacker’s truck had hit her right ankle as she rushed from its path. The impact tore skin from the back of her leg and fractured her ankle in multiple places. She was also shot in the foot.

She’s not ready to return to New Orleans just yet, but in a month or so she wants to visit the memorial on Bourbon Street.

“It could have been me,” she said.

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Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs contributed reporting. Kirsten Noyes and Jack Begg contributed research.

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Biden plans $8bn arms sale to Israel

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Biden plans bn arms sale to Israel

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Joe Biden’s administration has provisionally approved $8bn in new weapons for Israel in a last-minute show of support for the US president’s close ally after more than a year of war in Gaza. 

The State Department disclosed the sale to Congress late on Friday in what is known as an informal notification, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Such a notification comes before the public announcement of a deal, which will require the approval of the Senate and House Foreign Relations Committees before it can go through.

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Axios first reported on the planned sale, which includes $6.75bn in precision guided missiles and small bombs, $300mn in 155mm artillery shells, $600mn in Hellfire missiles and $300mn in Amraam air-to-air missiles, according to one of the people familiar with the matter.

A second person said some of the weapons would come directly from US stocks but many would take a year or more to deliver. 

Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed more than 45,000 people in the enclave, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel launched the offensive in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials.

Biden administration officials have vowed to continue to pursue efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza until the end of their term on January 20, but the talks have been stalled for months.

The administration has repeatedly raised concerns with Israel about the humanitarian situation in Gaza but has largely not followed through on threats to withhold weapons.

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In November the State Department withdrew a threat to withhold military assistance even after aid deliveries into Gaza fell to record lows, saying it was satisfied that Israel had taken steps to improve the humanitarian situation. 

US officials say aid deliveries have improved since then but continue to be insufficient. Aid groups have repeatedly warned that Israel’s offensive has fuelled a humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave, and called for far greater quantities of aid to be delivered.

Biden has said that he supports Israel’s right to defend itself and vowed to supply it with weapons as part of efforts to deter Iran and its proxies.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has frequently accused the US of delaying weapons and munitions deliveries, a charge the Biden administration denies. 

In November Netanyahu said he had agreed to a ceasefire with Hizbollah in Lebanon in part to help Israeli forces replenish their stocks.

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That month the Biden administration informally notified Congress that it planned to give Israel $680mn in precision weapons.

That announcement came after some Democrats in Congress tried and failed to block a $20bn weapons sale to Israel last summer.

Congress approved $26bn in additional wartime aid for Israel in April. That came in addition to the $3.8bn in security assistance the US provides to Israel annually.

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