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How the Trump Rally Gunman Had an Edge Over the Countersnipers

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How the Trump Rally Gunman Had an Edge Over the Countersnipers

The would-be assassin who opened fire at Donald J. Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on July 13 was able to get a clear shot at the former president, as countersniper teams nearby failed to see him in time to thwart the shooting.

The New York Times used drone photography to build a 3-D model and recreate the lines of sight for both the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, and three teams of countersnipers — two federal and one local. The analysis shows that Mr. Crooks, 20, who appears to have flown a drone to survey the site the morning of the rally, exploited one of the few blind spots within a rifle’s range of Mr. Trump, raising questions about serious lapses in security planning for the event.

At a contentious hearing on Capitol Hill on Monday, Kimberly A. Cheatle, the Secret Service director, offered few specifics to lawmakers’ repeated questions about sightlines and security breakdowns.

What Secret Service Countersnipers on the North Barn Saw

This is the line of sight that one of two Secret Service teams most likely had just minutes before Mr. Crooks opened fire.

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The gunman was largely concealed by two trees and the slope of a warehouse building roof, which he used as his perch. The warehouse complex, owned by AGR International, was outside the Secret Service’s designated security perimeter, the agency later said.

Stationed on the northernmost barn behind Mr. Trump, one of the Secret Service teams had been facing the gunman’s direction for 30 minutes before violence erupted, according to videos posted on social media and verified by The Times. At one point, team members can be seen standing up and looking in the gunman’s direction with binoculars.

The Times captured its own drone footage three days after the shooting. This footage provides a glimpse into how much the trees might have impaired the countersnipers’ view of the gunman.

The New York Times

Note: This video was captured about seven feet above the roof where a countersniper team was positioned atop the northern barn. The location of the gunman was identified by a cone that is visible between the tree branches, where it was placed by investigators after the shooting.

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The Times used a spatial technique called viewshed analysis to calculate what areas would have been visible from the northern countersniper team’s position, taking into account obstructions like trees and buildings. The analysis confirmed that Mr. Crooks chose a prime spot that allowed him to stay largely out of sight — even from a countersniper team that had been facing his direction for a length of time — as he prepared for the first shot.

What Secret Service Countersnipers on the South Barn Saw

A second Secret Service countersniper team was positioned on the roof of a barn farther to the south and west. It had been monitoring a different area — initially facing away from the gunman, videos posted to social media show.

Video footage shows the countersnipers later turning toward the gunman’s direction one minute and 35 seconds before the first shot was fired. This is the view they would have had when they turned around.

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But the slope of the warehouse roof that the gunman had chosen would have also made it difficult for the south countersniper team to see him as he crawled upward, a Times analysis shows. Only the very top of Mr. Crooks’s head would have been visible in either Secret Service countersniper team’s line of sight, and only while the gunman was hunkered behind the highest point on the roof.

Note: Diagram represents a conservative size of the gunman’s prone body.

Forty-two seconds after the shooting began, Secret Service agents can be heard saying “Shooter down” in video footage. Mr. Crooks was fatally shot by a Secret Service countersniper, the agency later confirmed. It’s likely the shot came from the countersnipers on the south barn, who would have been one of the best positioned.

What Local Law Enforcement Countersnipers Saw

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A third group of three law enforcement countersnipers was stationed in the same warehouse complex as the gunman, but in an adjacent building, according to a local law enforcement official, who was not authorized to comment.

The building that the countersnipers were in did have windows facing the side of the roof of the building that Mr. Crooks climbed up. But it is not known whether they were assigned to any of those windows that day.

The law enforcement official said the countersnipers, who were tasked with watching over the crowds, were positioned on the other side of the building, at the second-floor windows further from the gunman. Here is what the view of one countersniper — facing those attending the rally — might have looked like.

From this view inside the building, the gunman would have been out of the countersnipers’ lines of sight.

Videos and photos reviewed by The Times show what was most likely a fourth countersniper team from a local law enforcement agency roughly 1,000 feet from Mr. Crooks’s position on the roof. The team was visible several times in the hours and minutes before Mr. Trump began his speech. The Times could not confirm whether the team fired at any point during the shooting.

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What the Gunman Saw

The gunman’s spot on a warehouse roof — less than 500 feet from Mr. Trump — provided him with a clear, elevated line of sight.

As he crawled up toward the peak of the roof, its slight slope would have concealed him from the Secret Service countersnipers for a majority of the time. And, once he reached the top, the two trees would have provided some cover from the north countersniper team.

Investigators said that Mr. Crooks appears to have used a drone to survey the rally site before the shooting. The Secret Service did not seek to use drones to provide agents with aerial views of the rally, Ms. Cheatle testified on Monday.

Mr. Crooks was able to fire multiple shots — unimpeded — in Mr. Trump’s direction, injuring Mr. Trump’s right ear. A rally attendee sitting in the bleachers closest to the gunman was fatally shot in the head. Two others in the top row of bleachers to the south were also struck, though they survived.

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Other Security Missteps

Two rows of chain-link fencing divide the Butler Farm Show property from the warehouse complex. It’s unclear if the Secret Service used the fencing to delineate the security perimeters, but the agency later acknowledged that the AGR warehouses were excluded from the secure zone.

Source: Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access (PASDA)

The warehouse complex, which sits next to a state highway and a major road, is accessible to the public. In a video taken an hour before the shooting, Mr. Crooks can be seen in front of the warehouse building he would later use as his perch.

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On the ground, dozens of officers from multiple agencies were also present on the Butler Farm Show grounds, where the rally took place. Ms. Cheatle, the Secret Service director, said on Monday that the AGR building complex was being monitored at the time of shooting, but she did not specify by whom.

An F.B.I. investigation had found that a local SWAT team spotted Mr. Crooks on the roof of a warehouse approximately 18 minutes before Mr. Trump took the stage, Ms. Cheatle also said at Monday’s hearing. The Secret Service had been informed of a potential “suspicious” person through radio communication, but it did not stop Mr. Trump from taking the stage.

Methodology

The Times flew a drone on July 16 over the site of the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump in Butler, Pa., and used the imagery captured by the drone to create a 3-D model of the scene. The Times also used measurements collected on the ground, satellite imagery and references from photos and videos posted on social media to corroborate the dimensions in the model. The positions of the gunman, countersniper teams and the victims were based on sites The Times located from social media videos.

To determine the lines of sight of each countersniper team in the 3-D model, The Times conducted a viewshed analysis — a spatial technique used to calculate what areas would be visible from a specific location in 3-D, taking into account obstructions. The Times used a 1,000-foot radius from the position of the countersnipers for this analysis, which encompassed both the Butler Farm Show grounds and the AGR warehouse complex. The Times placed cameras in the 3-D model at the approximate locations of the gunman’s and the countersniper teams’ elevations to show what their views might have looked like from those vantage points. The gunman’s exact location in the renderings is based on the position where his body was found after he was shot. The specifics of the scopes used by the gunman or the countersnipers on their rifles are not known, and the 3-D renderings are approximate.

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U.S. launches strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State fighters after American deaths

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U.S. launches strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State fighters after American deaths

President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth salute as carry teams move the transfer cases with the remains of Iowa National Guard soldiers Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, of Marshalltown, Iowa, and Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, 25, of Des Moines, Iowa, and civilian interpreter Ayad Mansoor Sakat, who were killed in an attack in Syria, during a casualty return, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025 at Dover Air Force Base, Del.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP


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Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration launched military strikes Friday in Syria to “eliminate” Islamic State group fighters and weapons sites in retaliation for an ambush attack that killed two U.S. troops and an American civilian interpreter almost a week ago.

A U.S. official described it as “a large-scale” strike that hit 70 targets in areas across central Syria that had IS infrastructure and weapons. Another U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operations, said more strikes should be expected.

“This is not the beginning of a war — it is a declaration of vengeance. The United States of America, under President Trump’s leadership, will never hesitate and never relent to defend our people,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on social media.

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The new military operation in Syria comes even as the Trump administration has said it’s looking to focus closer to home in the Western Hemisphere, building up an armada in the Caribbean Sea as it targets alleged drug-smuggling boats and vowing to keep seizing sanctioned oil tankers as part of a pressure campaign on Venezuela’s leader. The U.S. has shifted significant resources away from the Middle East to further those goals: Its most advanced aircraft carrier arrived in South American waters last month from the Mediterranean Sea.

Trump vowed retaliation

President Donald Trump pledged “very serious retaliation” after the shooting in the Syrian desert, for which he blamed IS. Those killed were among hundreds of U.S. troops deployed in eastern Syria as part of a coalition fighting the militant group.

During a speech in North Carolina on Friday evening, the president hailed the operation as a “massive strike” that took out the “ISIS thugs in Syria who were trying to regroup.”

Earlier, in his social media post, he reiterated his backing for Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who Trump said was “fully in support” of the U.S. effort.

Trump also offered an all-caps threat, warning IS against attacking American personnel again.

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“All terrorists who are evil enough to attack Americans are hereby warned — YOU WILL BE HIT HARDER THAN YOU HAVE EVER BEEN HIT BEFORE IF YOU, IN ANY WAY, ATTACK OR THREATEN THE U.S.A.,” the president added.

The attack was conducted using F-15 Eagle jets, A-10 Thunderbolt ground attack aircraft and AH-64 Apache helicopters, the U.S. officials said. F-16 fighter jets from Jordan and HIMARS rocket artillery also were used, one official added.

U.S. Central Command, which oversees the region, said in a social media post that American jets, helicopters and artillery employed more than 100 precision munitions on Syrian targets.

How Syria has responded

The attack was a major test for the warming ties between the United States and Syria since the ouster of autocratic leader Bashar Assad a year ago. Trump has stressed that Syria was fighting alongside U.S. troops and said al-Sharaa was “extremely angry and disturbed by this attack,” which came as the U.S. military is expanding its cooperation with Syrian security forces.

Syria’s foreign ministry in a statement on X following the launch of U.S. strikes said that last week’s attack “underscores the urgent necessity of strengthening international cooperation to combat terrorism in all its forms” and that Syria is committed “to fighting ISIS and ensuring that it has no safe havens on Syrian territory and will continue to intensify military operations against it wherever it poses a threat.”

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Syrian state television reported that the U.S. strikes hit targets in rural areas of Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa provinces and in the Jabal al-Amour area near the historic city of Palmyra. It said they targeted “weapons storage sites and headquarters used by ISIS as launching points for its operations in the region.”

IS has not said it carried out the attack on the U.S. service members, but the group has claimed responsibility for two attacks on Syrian security forces since, one of which killed four Syrian soldiers in Idlib province. The group in its statements described al-Sharaa’s government and army as “apostates.” While al-Sharaa once led a group affiliated with al-Qaida, he has had a long-running enmity with IS.

The Americans who were killed

Trump this week met privately with the families of the slain Americans at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware before he joined top military officials and other dignitaries on the tarmac for the dignified transfer, a solemn and largely silent ritual honoring U.S. service members killed in action.

The guardsmen killed in Syria last Saturday were Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, 25, of Des Moines, and Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, of Marshalltown. Ayad Mansoor Sakat, of Macomb, Michigan, a U.S. civilian working as an interpreter, also was killed.

The shooting near Palmyra also wounded three other U.S. troops as well as members of Syria’s security forces, and the gunman was killed. The assailant had joined Syria’s internal security forces as a base security guard two months ago and recently was reassigned because of suspicions that he might be affiliated with IS, Interior Ministry spokesperson Nour al-Din al-Baba has said.

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The man stormed a meeting between U.S. and Syrian security officials who were having lunch together and opened fire after clashing with Syrian guards.

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Trump’s push to end transgender care for young people opposed by pediatricians

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Trump’s push to end transgender care for young people opposed by pediatricians

A display at the Gender Health Program of Children’s Minnesota hospital. Under a proposed rule announced Thursday, a hospital will lose all its Medicaid and Medicare funding if it continues to provide gender-affirming care for trans people under age 18.

Selena Simmons-Duffin/NPR


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Dr. Kade Goepferd watched the Trump administration’s moves on Thursday to ban gender-affirming care for transgender youth with “a mix of sadness and frustration.”

Goepferd, who is the founder of Children’s Minnesota Gender Health Program, says that for the medical community, nothing has changed about the evidence supporting gender-affirming care that could justify the government’s actions.

“There’s a massive propaganda and disinformation campaign that is selectively targeting this small population of already vulnerable kids and their families,” Goepferd says.

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“Men are men”

Federal health officials said many times at Thursday’s announcement that their actions were driven by science and evidence, not politics or ideology. They frequently praised a report published by the Department of Health and Human Services in November. It concluded that clinicians who provide medical care to help youth transition have failed their patients and emphasized the benefits of psychotherapy as an alternative.

At times, health officials cast doubt on the idea that a person could be transgender at all.

“Men are men. Men can never become women. Women are women. Women can never become men,” said Acting CDC Director Jim O’Neill. He added that “the blurring of the lines between sexes” represented a “hatred for nature as God designed it.”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said doctors and medical groups had “peddled the lie” that these treatments could be good for children, and that those youth were “conditioned to believe that sex can be changed.”

Doctor groups disagree

The American Academy of Pediatrics, the medical group that represents 67,000 pediatricians across the country, pushed back forcefully on those characterizations.

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“These policies and proposals misconstrue the current medical consensus and fail to reflect the realities of pediatric care and the needs of children and families,” said AAP President Dr. Susan J. Kressly in a statement. “These rules help no one, do nothing to address health care costs, and unfairly stigmatize a population of young people.”

AAP’s official position on this medical care is that it is safe and effective for the young people who need it. That view is shared by the American Medical Association, the Endocrine Society, among other medical organizations.

In a statement Thursday, the American Psychological Association wrote: “APA is deeply concerned about recent federal actions that not only challenge the scientific understanding of gender identity but also potentially jeopardize the human rights, psychological health, and well-being of transgender and nonbinary individuals.”

The most significant proposal released by HHS would withhold all Medicare and Medicaid funding from hospitals — a big portion of their budgets — if they provided gender-affirming care to those under age 18.

The Children’s Hospital Association said that rule — if finalized — would set a dangerous precedent. “Today’s proposed conditions make it possible for all kinds of specialized health care treatments to be withheld based on government-mandated rules,” wrote CEO Matthew Cook. “Millions of families could lose access to the care they need.”

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After a 60-day comment period, the rules could be finalized and then take effect.

Attorneys general in New York and California have said they will fight these rules and protect the rights of trans people to get care in their states. The ACLU has vowed to sue, and more legal challenges are expected.

“I don’t want to be lost”

According to a CDC survey, about 3% of teenagers aged 13-17 identify as transgender, approximately 700,000 people. A poll from health research organization KFF found that less than a third of transgender people took medication related to their identity and 16% had had surgery.

For young people, medical options most commonly include puberty blockers and hormones. Surgery is very rare for minors. “This is health care that evolves over time, is individualized, tailored to a patient’s needs, often after years of relationship with a trusted health care team,” says Goepferd.

NPR spoke to a transgender 15-year old in California this week about the moves Trump administration officials were making to restrict care. “They think what I’m feeling is a phase and that my family should just wait it out and that it’s better I’m unhappy and never receive care,” he says. NPR agreed not to name him because of fears for his safety.

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He says it can be difficult for those who are not transgender to understand that experience, but that, as far as he can tell, these health officials “are not interested in understanding trans people.”

He describes the long and deliberate process he made with his parents and doctors before he began taking testosterone. “The decision to not start gender-affirming care is often just as permanent as a decision to start it,” he says. “Not starting [hormone therapy], for some people, it feels like ruining our body, because there are certain changes we can never have.”

Now, after six months on testosterone, he feels like he’s on the right path, and is worried about the prospect of losing access to his medication if HHS’s efforts to shut down care nationally succeed. “It feels like someone’s throwing me into the bush just off the path I’m on, and that’s kind of terrifying,” he says. “I don’t want to be lost. I want to keep going where I’m going.”

“Deep moral distress”

More than half of states already ban gender-affirming care for young people after a frenzy of laws passed since 2021 in Republican-led states. This week, Republicans in the House led efforts to pass two federal bills that would restrict access to care, including one that could put doctors who provide the care in prison for up to ten years. It’s unclear if the bills will be voted on in the Senate.

Although nothing has officially changed in states where the care is still legal, these efforts to enact national restrictions have doctors and health systems in those states bracing for the possibility that their clinics will have to close down.

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Dr. Kade Goepferd is standing in an exam room at Children's Minnesota hospital.

Dr. Kade Goepferd takes care of transgender and gender diverse young people at Children’s Minnesota hospital.
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“There’s a deep moral distress when you know that there is care that you can provide to young people that will measurably improve their health and the quality of their life, and you’re being restricted from doing that,” Goepferd of Children’s Minnesota says. “And there’s a moral distress in feeling like — as a hospital or a health care system — you have to restrict care that you’re providing to one population to remain financially viable to provide health care for other kids.”

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Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle

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Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle

Is there such a thing as an “off year” for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year’s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year’s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections and two highly anticipated governor’s races.

Many of the elections were seen as early tests of how lasting President Trump’s 2024 gains might be and as a preview of what might happen in 2026.

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Here are five takeaways from the 2025 election cycle.

In Elections Seen as Referendums on Trump, Democrats Won Big

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Democrats did well in nearly all of this year’s elections, continuing a pattern that has played out across off-year elections for the last two decades: The party that wins the White House routinely loses ground in the next round of elections.

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Virginia and New Jersey have historically swung away from the president’s party in governor’s races

The change in the final margin from the presidential election to the next election for governor

Sources: Virginia Department of Elections, N.J. Division of Elections, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections. The New York Times

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Elections in these years are often viewed as referendums on the president’s performance. And Mr. Trump’s approval ratings, after months of holding steady, took a dip in November.

A notable shift came in New Jersey, where the majority-Hispanic townships that swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2025 governor’s race. That contributed significantly to the victory of Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, over Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican.

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New Jersey’s majority-Hispanic towns snapped back left in 2025

Each line is a township whose width is sized to the number of votes cast in 2025

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Note: Includes townships where more than 500 votes were cast in 2025. Sources: N.J. county clerks, N.J. Division of Elections, U.S. Census Bureau. The New York Times

The leftward swing was viewed by many political commentators as a reaction to Mr. Trump. If that is the case, it remains to be seen how much of it will carry over into 2026.

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Progressive and Moderate Democrats Are Both Claiming Victories

Democratic strategists continue to debate whether the party should embrace progressive candidates or more moderate ones. And in 2025, the election results had both sides feeling emboldened.

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In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who struggled to garner support from the Democratic Party, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points. A similar story played out in Jersey City, where James Solomon, a progressive, crushed former Gov. James McGreevey of New Jersey in a mayoral runoff. Progressives also prevailed in cities like Detroit and Seattle.

Centrist Democrats, meanwhile, came away with arguably the two biggest wins of the year against Trump-endorsed Republicans. Abigail Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, both Democrats, outperformed their polling estimates and decisively won the high-profile governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.

The debate will continue among Democrats as several 2026 primaries have prominent progressive and moderate candidates going head to head.

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In Texas, Representative Jasmine Crockett, a progressive, entered the primary race for a U.S. Senate seat against the more moderate James Talarico. A similar situation has developed in Maine, where Graham Platner has pitched himself as a more progressive alternative to Janet Mills in the party’s attempt to unseat Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. Other progressives, like Julie Gonzales in Colorado and Brad Lander in New York, are challenging incumbent Democrats in primary races.

A Record 14 Women Will Serve as Governors in 2026

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Virginians elected Ms. Spanberger as their first female governor. In New Jersey, Ms. Sherrill became the second woman to secure the position. Both women significantly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins from the 2024 presidential race, improving on her results by almost 10 points.

Female candidates also did well down the ballot. Eileen Higgins will be the first female mayor in Miami after defeating Emilio González, who had the support of Mr. Trump. And, in Seattle, Katie Wilson defeated the incumbent mayor, Bruce Harrell.

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States that will have female governors in 2026

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Source: Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. The New York Times

Come 2026, a record 14 women — 10 Democrats and four Republicans — will serve as governors, with six of them expected to run for re-election next year. (More than a dozen states have yet to elect a female governor.)

In New York, it is likely that both candidates will be women: Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, began a campaign last month against the incumbent, Kathy Hochul.

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Special Elections Are Still Very Special (for Democrats)

Despite not flipping any House seats, Democrats outperformed Ms. Harris’s 2024 results in every House special election this cycle. Their wins, however, offer limited insight into what might happen in 2026.

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Special elections, which happen outside of regular election cycles to fill vacated seats, draw fewer voters than those in midterm or presidential years. Special election voters tend to be older and highly engaged politically, and they are more likely to be college educated. That has given Democrats a distinct advantage in recent years, and 2025 was no exception.

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Democrats did well in the 2025 special elections

Democratic candidates in this year’s special congressional elections outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins.

Sources: Special election results are from The Associated Press, and 2024 presidential margins by congressional district are estimates from The New York Times. The New York Times

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Democratic strength in special elections extended to lower-profile races held this year. In Virginia, Democrats secured 64 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In Georgia, Democrats won two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, the first time the party won a non-federal statewide office since 2006. Pennsylvania Democrats swept the major Bucks County contests, electing a Democratic district attorney for the first time. And, in Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the State Senate.

Odd-Numbered Years Are Still Very Odd (for Election Polls)

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Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it’s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.

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Polls missed in opposite directions in 2021 and 2025

Each dot is a poll from the relevant governor’s election, positioned according to its polling error in the election.

Notes: Chart includes polls fielded in October or November of the election cycle. Polling error refers to the difference between the actual result margin and the poll margin. Sources: Polls from 2025 were collected by The New York Times, and polls from 2021 were collected by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and 538. The New York Times

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Polling misses don’t necessarily carry over from cycle to cycle: Despite the leftward bias of the polls in 2021, they performed very well in 2022. After each election, pollsters look at the result and evaluate their performance, and then note where they went wrong. Analysis from groups like the American Association for Public Opinion Research frequently indicates that errors come from an incorrect sense of who shows up to vote. Pollsters then try to adjust for this error in the next election cycle.

The errors of 2025 may prove largely irrelevant, however, as the midterm elections will feature a larger, very different pool of voters with a new set of races, and a new host of lessons for pollsters to learn.

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Off years are weird, and the polling errors they produce often are as well.

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