News
How the Trump Rally Gunman Had an Edge Over the Countersnipers
The would-be assassin who opened fire at Donald J. Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on July 13 was able to get a clear shot at the former president, as countersniper teams nearby failed to see him in time to thwart the shooting.
The New York Times used drone photography to build a 3-D model and recreate the lines of sight for both the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, and three teams of countersnipers — two federal and one local. The analysis shows that Mr. Crooks, 20, who appears to have flown a drone to survey the site the morning of the rally, exploited one of the few blind spots within a rifle’s range of Mr. Trump, raising questions about serious lapses in security planning for the event.
At a contentious hearing on Capitol Hill on Monday, Kimberly A. Cheatle, the Secret Service director, offered few specifics to lawmakers’ repeated questions about sightlines and security breakdowns.
What Secret Service Countersnipers on the North Barn Saw
This is the line of sight that one of two Secret Service teams most likely had just minutes before Mr. Crooks opened fire.
The gunman was largely concealed by two trees and the slope of a warehouse building roof, which he used as his perch. The warehouse complex, owned by AGR International, was outside the Secret Service’s designated security perimeter, the agency later said.
Stationed on the northernmost barn behind Mr. Trump, one of the Secret Service teams had been facing the gunman’s direction for 30 minutes before violence erupted, according to videos posted on social media and verified by The Times. At one point, team members can be seen standing up and looking in the gunman’s direction with binoculars.
The Times captured its own drone footage three days after the shooting. This footage provides a glimpse into how much the trees might have impaired the countersnipers’ view of the gunman.
The New York Times
Note: This video was captured about seven feet above the roof where a countersniper team was positioned atop the northern barn. The location of the gunman was identified by a cone that is visible between the tree branches, where it was placed by investigators after the shooting.
The Times used a spatial technique called viewshed analysis to calculate what areas would have been visible from the northern countersniper team’s position, taking into account obstructions like trees and buildings. The analysis confirmed that Mr. Crooks chose a prime spot that allowed him to stay largely out of sight — even from a countersniper team that had been facing his direction for a length of time — as he prepared for the first shot.
What Secret Service Countersnipers on the South Barn Saw
A second Secret Service countersniper team was positioned on the roof of a barn farther to the south and west. It had been monitoring a different area — initially facing away from the gunman, videos posted to social media show.
Video footage shows the countersnipers later turning toward the gunman’s direction one minute and 35 seconds before the first shot was fired. This is the view they would have had when they turned around.
But the slope of the warehouse roof that the gunman had chosen would have also made it difficult for the south countersniper team to see him as he crawled upward, a Times analysis shows. Only the very top of Mr. Crooks’s head would have been visible in either Secret Service countersniper team’s line of sight, and only while the gunman was hunkered behind the highest point on the roof.
Note: Diagram represents a conservative size of the gunman’s prone body.
Forty-two seconds after the shooting began, Secret Service agents can be heard saying “Shooter down” in video footage. Mr. Crooks was fatally shot by a Secret Service countersniper, the agency later confirmed. It’s likely the shot came from the countersnipers on the south barn, who would have been one of the best positioned.
What Local Law Enforcement Countersnipers Saw
A third group of three law enforcement countersnipers was stationed in the same warehouse complex as the gunman, but in an adjacent building, according to a local law enforcement official, who was not authorized to comment.
The building that the countersnipers were in did have windows facing the side of the roof of the building that Mr. Crooks climbed up. But it is not known whether they were assigned to any of those windows that day.
The law enforcement official said the countersnipers, who were tasked with watching over the crowds, were positioned on the other side of the building, at the second-floor windows further from the gunman. Here is what the view of one countersniper — facing those attending the rally — might have looked like.
From this view inside the building, the gunman would have been out of the countersnipers’ lines of sight.
Videos and photos reviewed by The Times show what was most likely a fourth countersniper team from a local law enforcement agency roughly 1,000 feet from Mr. Crooks’s position on the roof. The team was visible several times in the hours and minutes before Mr. Trump began his speech. The Times could not confirm whether the team fired at any point during the shooting.
What the Gunman Saw
The gunman’s spot on a warehouse roof — less than 500 feet from Mr. Trump — provided him with a clear, elevated line of sight.
As he crawled up toward the peak of the roof, its slight slope would have concealed him from the Secret Service countersnipers for a majority of the time. And, once he reached the top, the two trees would have provided some cover from the north countersniper team.
Investigators said that Mr. Crooks appears to have used a drone to survey the rally site before the shooting. The Secret Service did not seek to use drones to provide agents with aerial views of the rally, Ms. Cheatle testified on Monday.
Mr. Crooks was able to fire multiple shots — unimpeded — in Mr. Trump’s direction, injuring Mr. Trump’s right ear. A rally attendee sitting in the bleachers closest to the gunman was fatally shot in the head. Two others in the top row of bleachers to the south were also struck, though they survived.
Other Security Missteps
Two rows of chain-link fencing divide the Butler Farm Show property from the warehouse complex. It’s unclear if the Secret Service used the fencing to delineate the security perimeters, but the agency later acknowledged that the AGR warehouses were excluded from the secure zone.
Source: Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access (PASDA)
The warehouse complex, which sits next to a state highway and a major road, is accessible to the public. In a video taken an hour before the shooting, Mr. Crooks can be seen in front of the warehouse building he would later use as his perch.
On the ground, dozens of officers from multiple agencies were also present on the Butler Farm Show grounds, where the rally took place. Ms. Cheatle, the Secret Service director, said on Monday that the AGR building complex was being monitored at the time of shooting, but she did not specify by whom.
An F.B.I. investigation had found that a local SWAT team spotted Mr. Crooks on the roof of a warehouse approximately 18 minutes before Mr. Trump took the stage, Ms. Cheatle also said at Monday’s hearing. The Secret Service had been informed of a potential “suspicious” person through radio communication, but it did not stop Mr. Trump from taking the stage.
Methodology
The Times flew a drone on July 16 over the site of the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump in Butler, Pa., and used the imagery captured by the drone to create a 3-D model of the scene. The Times also used measurements collected on the ground, satellite imagery and references from photos and videos posted on social media to corroborate the dimensions in the model. The positions of the gunman, countersniper teams and the victims were based on sites The Times located from social media videos.
To determine the lines of sight of each countersniper team in the 3-D model, The Times conducted a viewshed analysis — a spatial technique used to calculate what areas would be visible from a specific location in 3-D, taking into account obstructions. The Times used a 1,000-foot radius from the position of the countersnipers for this analysis, which encompassed both the Butler Farm Show grounds and the AGR warehouse complex. The Times placed cameras in the 3-D model at the approximate locations of the gunman’s and the countersniper teams’ elevations to show what their views might have looked like from those vantage points. The gunman’s exact location in the renderings is based on the position where his body was found after he was shot. The specifics of the scopes used by the gunman or the countersnipers on their rifles are not known, and the 3-D renderings are approximate.
One observer of the current Senate race in Louisiana noted that Sen. Bill Cassidy could lose his reelection bid.
Annie Flanagan for NPR
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Annie Flanagan for NPR
Sen. Bill Cassidy lost Saturday’s Louisiana Republican primary according to a race call by the Associated Press.
Cassidy, who served two terms in the Senate, was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict President Trump after the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol. That vote put him at odds with Trump and his MAGA coalition, ultimately leading Trump to push Rep. Julia Letlow to run against Cassidy.
Cassidy’s bid for a third term was viewed as a test of Trump’s grip on the party–and of what voters want from their representatives in Washington. The primary pitted Cassidy, a veteran lawmaker, former physician and chair of the powerful Senate health committee, against Letlow, a political newcomer and a millennial MAGA loyalist.
A detailed view of a hat that reads, Run Julia Run, is seen at a campaign event for Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) on May 6, 2026 in Franklinton, Louisiana.
Tyler Kaufman/Getty Images
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A former college administrator, Letlow won a special election in 2021 for the House seat her late husband, Luke, was set to assume before he died from COVID in 2020.
In Congress, Letlow sponsored a bill to collect oral histories from the pandemic and has focused on education and children. She introduced the “Parents Bill of Rights Act,” which would allow parents to review classroom materials like library books and require schools to notify parents if their child requests different pronouns, locker rooms or sports teams.
She also serves on the powerful appropriations committee and has embraced Trump’s agenda.
Letlow, who came first in Saturday’s primary, will face Louisiana state Treasurer John Fleming in the runoff on June 27. Cassidy came in third.
The election result is a victory for President Trump who has put Republican loyalty to the test on the ballot so far this year in Indiana state senate primaries and in Cassidy’s race.
Another major test of Trump’s influence comes in Kentucky’s primary on Tuesday when Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, who has found himself at odds with the president, faces a challenger endorsed by Trump.
News
Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump returned from the spectacle of a Chinese state visit to a less than welcoming U.S. economy — with the military band and garden tour in Beijing giving way to pressure over how to fix America’s escalating inflation rate.
Consumer inflation in the United States increased to 3.8% annually in April, higher than what he inherited as the Iran war and the Republican president’s own tariffs have pushed up prices. Inflation is now outpacing wage gains and effectively making workers poorer. The Cleveland Federal Reserve estimates that annual inflation could reach 4.2% in May as the war has kept oil and gasoline prices high.
Trump’s time with Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears unlikely to help the U.S. economy much, despite Trump’s claims of coming trade deals. The trip occurred as many people are voting in primaries leading into the November general election while having to absorb the rising costs of gasoline, groceries, utility bills, jewelry, women’s clothing, airplane tickets and delivery services. Democrats see the moment as a political opportunity.
“He’s returning to a dumpster fire,” said Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal think tank focused on economic issues. “The president will not have the faith and confidence of the American people — the economy is their top issue and the president is saying, ‘You’re on your own.’”
The president’s trip to Beijing and his recent comments that indicated a tone-deafness to voters’ concerns about rising prices have suggested his focus is not on the American public and have undermined Republicans who had intended to campaign on last year’s tax cuts as helping families.
Trump described the trip as a victory, saying on social media that Xi “congratulated me on so many tremendous successes,” as the U.S. president has praised their relationship.
Trump told reporters that Boeing would be selling 200 aircraft — and maybe even 750 “if they do a good job” — to the Chinese. He said American farmers would be “very happy” because China would be “buying billions of dollars of soybeans.”
“We had an amazing time,” Trump said as he flew home on Air Force One, and told Fox News’ Bret Baier in an interview that gasoline prices were just some “short-term pain” and would “drop like a rock” once the war ends.
Inflationary pain is not a factor in how Trump handles Iran
Trump departed from the White House for China by saying the negotiations over the Iran war depended on stopping Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
That remark prompted blowback because it suggested to some that Trump cared more about challenging Iran than fighting inflation at home. Trump defended his words, telling Fox News: “That’s a perfect statement. I’d make it again.”
The White House has since stressed that Trump is focused on inflation.
Asked later about the president’s words, Vice President JD Vance said there had been a “misrepresentation” of the remarks. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the “administration remains laser-focused on delivering growth and affordability on the homefront” while indicating actions would be taken on grocery prices.
But as Trump appeared alongside Xi, new reports back home showed inflation rising for businesses and interest rates climbing on U.S. government debt.
His comments that Boeing would sell 200 jets to China caused the company’s stock price to fall because investors had expected a larger number. There was little concrete information offered about any trade agreements reached during the summit, including Chinese purchases of U.S. exports such as liquefied natural gas and beef.
“Foreign policy wins can matter politically, but only if voters feel stability and affordability in their daily lives,” said Brittany Martinez, a former Republican congressional aide who is the executive director of Principles First, a center-right advocacy group focused on democracy issues.
“Midterms are almost always a referendum on cost of living and public frustration, and Republicans are not immune from the same inflation and affordability pressures that hurt Democrats in recent cycles,” she added.
Democrats see Trump as vulnerable
Democratic lawmakers are seizing on Trump’s comments before his trip as proof of his indifference to lowering costs. There is potential staying power of his remarks as Americans head into Memorial Day weekend facing rising prices for the hamburgers and hot dogs to be grilled.
“What Americans do not see is any sympathy, any support, or any plan from Trump and congressional Republicans to lower costs – in fact, they see the opposite,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Thursday.
Vance faulted the Biden administration for the inflation problem even though the inflation rate is now higher than it was when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a specific mandate to fix it.
“The inflation number last month was not great,” Vance said Wednesday, but he then stressed, “We’re not seeing anything like what we saw under the Biden administration.”
Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, a Democrat. By the time Trump took the oath of office, it was a far more modest 3%.
Trump’s inflation challenge could get harder
The data tells a different story as higher inflation is spreading into the cost of servicing the national debt.
Over the past week, the interest rate charged on 10-year U.S. government debt jumped from 4.36% to 4.6%, an increase that implies higher costs for auto loans and mortgages.
“My fear is that the layers of supply shocks that are affecting the U.S. economy will only further feed into inflationary pressures,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
Daco noted that last year’s tariff increases were now translating into higher clothing prices. With the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s ability to impose tariffs by declaring an economic emergency, his administration is preparing a new set of import taxes for this summer.
Daco stressed that there have been a series of supply shocks. First, tariffs cut into the supply of imports. In addition, Trump’s immigration crackdown cut into the supply of foreign-born workers. Now, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the vital waterway used to ship 20% of global oil supplies.
“We’re seeing an erosion of growth,” Daco said.
Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.
She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agency’s decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White House’s requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.
Dr. Hoeg’s hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agency’s most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedy’s decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.
But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she “stuck with the science.”
“I am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,” Dr. Hoeg said, adding, “I’m glad that we didn’t give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasn’t appropriate.”
As the director of the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agency’s liaison to an influential vaccine committee.
She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.
The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.
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