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Christianity’s Decline in U.S. Appears to Have Halted, Major Study Shows

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Christianity’s Decline in U.S. Appears to Have Halted, Major Study Shows

For decades, social scientists, demographers and Christians themselves have told a familiar story about the state of Christianity in the United States: The country was rapidly secularizing. The Christian population was shrinking, on its way to becoming a minority religion. America may have been some years behind Europe in the process, but its pews were emptying steadily and inexorably.

Now, that narrative may be changing.

After years of decline, the Christian population in the United States has been stable for several years, a shift fueled in part by young adults, according to a major new survey from the Pew Research Center. And the number of religiously unaffiliated Americans, which had grown steadily for years, has also leveled off.

“We’re entering a new era of the American religious landscape,” said Ryan Burge, a political scientist at Eastern Illinois University who was not involved in the Pew survey. The “nones” — those in the American population who tell researchers they have no religious affiliation — have been growing for decades. “Now that growth has either slowed or stopped completely,” Dr. Burge said, “and that’s big deal.”

The findings come from the Religious Landscape Survey, a survey of more than 35,000 randomly selected adults from across the country conducted in 2023 and 2024. The last survey was published in 2014, making the new edition’s release a major update in the understanding of American spiritual beliefs and practice.

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The survey finds that 62 percent of adults in the United States describe themselves as Christians, including 40 percent who identify as Protestant and 19 percent who are Catholic.

Overall, that represents a decline in the share of Christians since the survey was first published in 2007. As recently as the early 1990s, nine in 10 adults in the country identified as Christian. Almost 30 percent of adults participating in the new survey are religiously unaffiliated, and 7 percent identify with a religion other than Christianity.

“If you look to the long term, it’s a story of decline in American religion,” said Gregory Smith, a senior associate director of research at Pew. “But it’s a completely different story if you look at the short term, which is a story of stability over the last four or five years.”

The story of the steadying is complex, but one factor is the youngest cohort of adults in the survey. The survey’s first two editions have shown each age group becoming steadily less Christian than the previous. For example, 80 percent of those born in the 1940s or earlier now identify as Christian, compared with 75 percent of those born in the 1950s and 73 percent of those born in the 1960s.

People in the youngest age group in the new survey, born between 2000 and 2006, appear to defy that trend. They are still less likely than average to identify as Christian, and far less likely than the oldest Americans. But, intriguingly to researchers, they appear no less religious than survey participants in the second-youngest cohort, born in the 1990s.

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The youngest survey participants stood out in other ways, too. The gap in religiosity between men and women is far smaller than it is in older generations. Typically, women are more religious than men on a variety of measures. It’s a pattern so consistent across time, geography and culture that some scholars characterize it as a fact of human life. The pattern shows up in Pew’s oldest cohorts, where, for example, women are 20 points more likely than men to say they pray every day.

Among 18- to 24-year-olds in Pew’s survey, however, the gender gap is small or nonexistent in measures of whether they pray daily, identify with a particular religion and believe in God.

“It’s not quite a reversal, but the fact that it’s narrowing is significant,” said David Campbell, a political scientist at the University of Notre Dame who was not involved with the survey.

Dr. Campbell speculated that the cause of the convergence might be at least partly political. As the perception of Christianity in particular has become increasingly entangled with conservative political movements, identifying as a Christian has become a matter of conservative identity.

“If you’re a young white male these days and you think of yourself as conservative, then being religious is a part of that,” he said.

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The survey was conducted before President Trump’s re-election and the subsequent “vibe shift” detected by many religious conservatives, a rightward turn that includes celebrity conversions and a Silicon Valley backlash against progressivism. Still, people who are politically conservative and liberal are on dramatically different trajectories religiously, the Pew survey affirms. The share of self-described liberals who identify as Christian has dropped by 25 points since 2007. Just over a third of liberals now identify as Christian, and more than half say they have no religion.

Among conservatives, the decline in Christian identification has been much more subtle, to 82 percent from 89 percent.

The Census Bureau does not ask questions about religion, so Pew’s large and rigorous survey is a key resource for academics, journalists and the general public. The new survey is the largest of the three that have been conducted so far.

“It’s difficult to overstate the importance” of the survey to the understanding of American religion, Dr. Campbell said.

Researchers caution that the data does not indicate an actual reversal in the decline of Christianity, or even that the plateau will last. Young adults are still significantly less religious than older adults, meaning they will pull down the average religiosity over time. It is unlikely that the current group of young adults will become more religious as they age.

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But some experts suggest that most people who were going to leave a religion have done so by now, raising the possibility that the data might offer a hint at the natural ceiling of nonreligiosity in the United States.

“The ‘nones’ have run through the easy parts of the market, and now they’re hitting the bedrock of committed evangelicals” and theological traditionalists in other faiths, said Dr. Burge, who was also pastor of an American Baptist church for 17 years. Going forward, “if you’re going to make advances, you have to make advances with conservatives.”

Regardless of how many Americans identify with specific religions — or no religion at all — in the future, the survey depicts a fundamentally spiritual population. More than 80 percent of survey participants believe humans “have a soul or spirit in addition to their physical body,” and believe in God or a universal spirit.

Most paths to religion are highly personal.

Justin Springhart, 32, began attending Orlando Grace Church in Florida, a nondenominational church, a few years ago after having drifted away from religion. When his brother died of a drug overdose, he found he was so closed off from his own emotions that he couldn’t cry at the funeral.

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When his personal trainer invited him to a church service, he felt at home as soon as he walked in the door.

“It just felt like this is where I need to be to grow as a man, to grow in Christ, to grow as a leader,” Mr. Springhart said. “As someone who couldn’t cry at his own brother’s funeral, I weep about how much my God loves me.”

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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

The bombing of an Iranian elementary school that killed some 165 people, many of them schoolgirls, included more targets near the school than has been initially reported, a review of commercial satellite imagery by NPR has found.

The images suggest that the school was hit on Saturday as part of a precision airstrike on a neighboring Iranian military complex — and that it may have been struck as a result of outdated targeting information.

The new images come from the company Planet and are of the city of Minab, located in southeastern Iran. They show that a health clinic and other buildings near the school were also struck. Three independent experts confirmed NPR’s analysis of the additional strike points.

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The strike points “look like pretty clean detonation centroids,” said Corey Scher, a postdoctoral researcher at the Conflict Ecology laboratory at Oregon State University.

“These certainly appear like detonation sites,” agreed Scher’s colleague, Oregon State associate professor Jamon Van Den Hoek.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury College who specializes in satellite imagery, said the imagery was consistent with a precision airstrike.

The images show “very precise targeting,” Lewis told NPR. “Almost all the buildings [in the compound] are hit.”

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4.

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4, several days after an airstrike destroyed a school on the edge of the compound. The image reveals that half a dozen other buildings in addition to the school were struck.

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Iranian state media said 165 people died in the bombing, which struck a girls’ school. The school was located within less than 100 yards of the perimeter of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval base, according to satellite images and publicly available information. The clinic was also located within the base perimeter, although both facilities had been walled off from the base.

Israel has denied involvement. “We are not aware at the moment of any IDF operation in that area,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told NPR on Monday. “I don’t know who’s responsible for the bombing.”

At a press conference Wednesday morning, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. is looking into what happened at the school. “All I know, all I can say, is that we’re investigating that,” Hegseth said. “We, of course, never target civilian targets.”

Given Minab’s location in the southeastern part of Iran, Lewis believes it’s more likely the U.S. would have conducted the strike than Israel. As one gets farther south and east in Iran, “a strike is much more likely to be a U.S. strike than an Israeli strike because of the type of munitions and the geographic location,” he said.

Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, called the strike “deliberate” and said that the U.S. and Israel bombed the school in part to tie up Iranian forces in the region with rescue efforts. “To call the attack on the girls school merely a ‘war crime’ does not capture the sheer evil and depravity of such a crime,” he said.

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But Lewis said it’s more likely that the strike was the result of an error. Satellite images show that the school and clinic buildings were both once part of the base. The school was separated from the base by a wall between 2013 and 2016. The clinic was walled off between 2022 and 2024.

Lewis believes it’s possible American military planners had not updated their target sets.

“There are thousands of targets across Iran, and so there will be teams in the United States and Israel that are responsible for tracking those targets and updating them,” he said. “It’s possible that the target didn’t get updated.”

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for additional information about the strike.

NPR’s Arezou Rezvani and NPR’s RAD team contributed to this report.

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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, is being heavily tipped to succeed his father as supreme leader of Iran, which would pitch a hardliner into the task of steering the Islamic republic through the most turbulent period in its 48-year history and offer a powerful signal that, for now, it has no intention of changing course.

No official confirmation has been given and the announcement may be delayed until after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, which was on Wednesday postponed.

His son is believed to have been the choice of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Israeli defence minister, Gideon Saar, has warned he will be assassinated.

Ayatollah Seyed Khatani, a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the new supreme leader, said the assembly was close to selecting a leader.

Rigid in his anti-western views, Mojtaba Khamenei is not the candidate Donald Trump would have wanted. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said on Tuesday that Iran was run by “religious fanatic lunatics” – and Khamenei’s appointment is hardly likely to dispel that opinion.

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The choice of supreme leader is made by the 88-strong Assembly of Experts, who in this case are picking from a field of six possible candidates. His election would be a powerful if unsurprising symbol that the government is not looking to find an accommodation with America.

Trump has said the worst-case scenario would be if Khamenei’s successor was “as bad as the previous person”.

There has been speculation for more than a decade that he would be his father’s successor, which grew when Ebrahim Raisi, the elected president and favourite of Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash.

Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and studied theology after graduating from high school. At the age of 17, he went to serve in the Iran-Iraq war, but it was not until the late 1990s that he came to be recognised as a public figure in his own right.

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After the landslide defeat of Khamenei’s preferred candidate, Ali Akbar Nategh Nuri, in the 1997 presidential election, where he won only 25% of the final vote, various conservative Iranian groups realised the need to make changes to their structures and Mojtaba Khamenei was central to that project.

He was also seen as instrumental by reformists in suppressing the protests in 2009 that came after allegations the presidential election had been rigged, with his name chanted in the streets as one of those responsible. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of Iran’s reformist parties who was imprisoned after the vote, alleged that his and his wife, Fakhr al-Sadat Mohtashamipour’s, legal case was under the direct supervision of Mojtaba Khamenei.

In 2022 he was given the title of ayatollah – essential to his promotion. By then he was a regular figure by his father’s side at political meetings, as well as playing an influential role in the Islamic Republic’s Broadcasting Corporation, the government’s official media outlet often criticised for churning out dull political propaganda that many Iranians reject in favour of overseas satellite channels. He has also played a central role in the administration of his father’s substantial financial empire.

His closest political allies are Ahmad Vahidi, the newly appointed IRGC commander; Hossein Taeb, a former head of the IRGC’s intelligence organisation; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament.

His rumoured appointment and its hereditary nature has long been resisted by reformists. The former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the long history of rumours about Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as leader, wrote in 2022: “News of this conspiracy have been heard for 13 years. If they are not truly pursuing it, why don’t they deny such an intention once and for all?”

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The Assembly of Experts, in response, denounced “meaninglessness of doubts” and said the assembly would select only “the most qualified and the most suitable”.

Israel on Tuesday struck the building in the Iranian city of Qom, one of Shia Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly was scheduled, but the building was empty, according to IRGC-affiliated media.

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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

new video loaded: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

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Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

What we’ve seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem. A disaster. What we’ve seen is innocent people getting detained that turn out are American citizens. I could talk about the culture that’s been created here. After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, when I spoke to Alex’s parents, they told me that you calling him a domestic terrorist — this was directly from them — the day after he was killed, a nurse in our V.A., Alex — one of the most hurtful things they could ever imagine was said by you about their son. Do you have anything you want to say to Alex Pretti’s parents? Ma’am, I did not call him a domestic terrorist. I said It appeared to be an incident of — I think the parents saw it for what it was. In a hearing — recent hearing before the HSGAC committee, C.B.P. and ICE officials testified under oath that their agencies did not inform you that Pretti was a domestic terrorist — during that hearing, stated during that hearing, I was getting reports from the ground, from agents at the scene, and I would say that it was a chaotic scene. How did you think that calling them domestic terrorists at that scene was somehow going to calm the situation? The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, it’s going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.

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Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

By Christina Kelso and Jackeline Luna

March 3, 2026

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