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Analysis: Japan’s tough talk on Russia is really about China

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Within the first days of the invasion, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was fast to border the Ukraine disaster as a worldwide problem. “It is a very critical scenario which does not simply have an effect on Europe, but additionally Asia and the entire world order,” he advised reporters.

For Japan, help for Ukraine serves a twin function, in response to Yoko Iwama, a global relations and safety professional on the Nationwide Graduate Institute of Coverage Research.

“The aim of Japan’s response is to ship a message that we’ll be prepared and we are going to resist if there’s an invasion (of Japanese territory), that we’ll not permit the borders to be modified by pressure,” stated Iwama.

“We do not need an actual struggle, the target is political — that China is persuaded from an aggressive act just like the one which Putin has taken within the final a number of days and weeks.”

It is in opposition to that backdrop that Japan’s former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, raised a beforehand unthinkable suggestion throughout an interview three days after the Russian invasion.

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Abe, nonetheless an influential determine within the ruling Liberal Democratic Occasion, floated the concept of Japan coming into a NATO-like nuclear weapons sharing program — internet hosting US nuclear weapons on Japanese soil. It was a surprising proposal for nation that suffered the devastating impression of the 2 atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki throughout World Battle II — however one Abe says ought to now not be taboo.

Completely different instances, altering techniques

Japan’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine differs markedly to its actions after Moscow’s assault on Crimea in 2014.

Then, underneath Abe, Japan was referred to as out for being too sluggish to behave. Now its technique is completely different — and the urgency arguably better.

Again in 2014, Abe adopted the tactic of pulling Russia nearer to stop it tightening ties with China, stated James Brown, an affiliate professor of political science at Temple College in Tokyo.

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Russia had annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea by sending in armed forces to take over key services and foment a separatist riot that rumbled on for eight years.

Tokyo initially handled Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea area as a Western problem, in response to Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific research on the Council on International Relations.

“(The Japanese authorities) handled it a little bit bit like a problem for the Europeans and Individuals to cope with; that it wasn’t actually about Japan, however that they’d go together with it,” Smith stated.

She stated Abe harbored hopes that Russian chief Vladimir Putin would signal on to the normalization of Russia-Japan ties or a full peace treaty formally ending hostilities courting again to World Battle II.

However Japan’s softer stance in opposition to Russia drew worldwide criticism, and Tokyo finally joined its Western allies in imposing sanctions on Russia, together with diplomatic measures consisting of suspending talks associated to easing visa necessities, a journey ban and the freezing of sure people’ belongings.

Nevertheless, this 12 months the size and horror of the disaster unfolding in Ukraine has prompted Japan to push a constant message of unity with its G7 companions to indicate it is a “reliable associate,” in response to Brown, from Temple College.

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“You hear time and time once more, the federal government say — ‘and alongside our G7 and different worldwide companions, we are going to coordinate in taking a troublesome response on this problem’ — they do not wish to be seen as out of step,” Brown stated.

Japan wants G7 help — notably from the US — to include any transfer from Beijing on Taiwan, the island which China claims as its territory regardless of having by no means ruled it.

So final week, Japan added much more sanctions in opposition to Russia and Belarus — freezing the belongings of a further 32 Russian and Belarusian officers and oligarchs. And in a uncommon transfer, it additionally reviewed its tips on the switch of protection gear abroad, paving the way in which for the transport of bulletproof vests and helmets to Ukraine. Tokyo has additionally joined the push to chop Russia from the SWIFT banking system and has frozen Russian chief Vladimir Putin’s belongings.

Specialists says Japan needs to maintain in line with its worldwide allies within the face of the unfolding human tragedy and China’s rising army would possibly.

‘Sense of urgency’

For many years after World Battle II, Japan’s pacifist structure prevented it from build up its army energy. Article 9 of the doc stated that “land, sea and air forces, in addition to different struggle potential won’t ever be maintained.”
However lately, the nation has signaled a transfer in direction of better army spending, and final December Prime Minister Kishida introduced the federal government was exploring choices to provide it the aptitude to strike enemy bases.

China is taken into account a significant risk, however the mixed energy of Russia and China has put Japan underneath appreciable stress.

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Final 12 months, the 2 nations carried out what was billed as the primary joint China-Russia naval patrol within the western Pacific. Vessels sailed via the Tsugaru Strait that separates Japan’s principal island and its northern island of Hokkaido, earlier than heading down the nation’s japanese coast after which again towards China via the Osumi Strait off the southern Japanese island of Kyushu.

International vessels are permitted to sail via the Osumi and Tsugaru straits — each worldwide waters — however Japan intently monitored the maneuvers, which the nation’s Protection Division referred to as “uncommon.”

Japan’s Ministry of Protection stated on Friday that 10 Russian Navy vessels, together with a frigate, had sailed via the Tsugaru Strait the day prior to this, towards the Sea of ​​Japan.

Japan has territorial disputes with each China and Russia. Final 12 months, Japanese Protection Minister Nobuo Kishi advised CNN the Senkaku Islands, often called the Diaoyu Islands in China, are unquestionably Japanese territory and could be defended as such. Japan additionally contests Russia’s declare to the Kuril Islands, an island chain off Hokkaido.

After which there’s Taiwan, which sits to the south in waters used to ferry 90% of Japan oil provides.

Final 12 months, Japan authorised a document protection price range for 2022 of 5.4 trillion yen ($47.2 billion), which exceeded 1 p.c of its GDP.

Some say the Ukraine disaster on prime of native safety concerns exhibits it must commit much more.

Breaking down taboos

However additional protection funding is only one facet of Japan’s armor in opposition to an escalation of regional tensions.

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Final month, Abe has used his place as former chief to boost one other much more controversial prospect — the concept of internet hosting US nuclear weapons in Japan.

“Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has its three non-nuclear ideas, nevertheless it’s important to grasp how the world’s safety is maintained, and we should not deal with these discussions as a taboo,” Abe advised Fuji Tv.

Kishida instantly dismissed the suggestion, calling it “unacceptable,” whereas anti-nuclear activists had been predictably outraged.

Japan falls inside the US nuclear umbrella however has lengthy dominated out internet hosting nuclear weapons resulting from devastation wrought by atomic bombs dropped throughout World Battle II.

When requested about Abe’s feedback in a daily press briefing, China’s International Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stated Japanese politicians had made “wild feedback” that “brazenly violate its personal Three Non-Nuclear Ideas and the obligations of a celebration to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).”

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“By elevating nuclear sharing with the US, Japan has totally uncovered the damaging tendency of lingering militarism within the nation,” he added.

Within the interview, Abe additionally referred to as for the US to take a extra specific place on the protection of Taiwan over whether or not or not it might defend the self-ruled island if Beijing had been to assault.

Final 12 months, US President Joe Biden stated the US would defend Taiwan if it had been to return underneath assault from China, a remark that appeared incongruous with America’s acknowledged coverage of “strategic ambiguity.”

Nevertheless, later a authorities official stated the US was not saying any change to its coverage on Taiwan — underneath the “One China” Coverage, the US acknowledges China’s declare of sovereignty over Taiwan.

One factor is evident: Russia’s assault on Ukraine has rattled the Japanese and has compelled them to face questions some would possibly in any other case keep away from.

“Individuals are asking, ‘Will the USA actually are available in if the Chinese language assault? Will the USA go to struggle with China?’” stated Smith, from the Council on International Relations.

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“These are all current questions which have been effervescent up underneath the floor, based mostly on the capabilities first of North Korea, but additionally China. And I believe that is additionally being laid naked as Putin makes use of nuclear threats,” she added.

Journalist Yuki Kurihara contributed to this report from Tokyo.

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Keir Starmer attacks Tory plan to revive national service

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Keir Starmer attacks Tory plan to revive national service

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has ridiculed Rishi Sunak’s “teenage ‘Dad’s Army’” plan to revive national service, as a Tory minister distanced himself from the policy and a Conservative peer hit out at the UK prime minister.

In Starmer’s first major speech of the campaign on Monday, he sought to reassure voters that his party could be trusted with Britain’s security while claiming Sunak was engaged in political stunts.

Starmer attacked the “desperation” of Sunak’s £2.5bn-a-year plan to revive compulsory national service — which was abolished in 1960 — with 18-year-olds having to do work in the community or with the military.

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He said it amounted to “a teenage ‘Dad’s Army’ paid for by cancelling levelling-up funding and money from tax avoidance that we would use to invest in our NHS”.

Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister in Sunak’s government, also signalled doubts about the national service plan, which has been criticised in a region of the UK where serving with the British army is a highly political issue.

Baker posted on X that it was a Tory policy, not a government one.

“A government policy would have been developed by ministers on the advice of officials and collectively agreed. I would have had a say on behalf of NI [Northern Ireland],” he wrote.

“But this proposal was developed by a political adviser or advisers and sprung on candidates, some of whom are relevant ministers.”

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In a further indication of Conservative disarray, Lord Zac Goldsmith said on X that the prime minister had “damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month”.

The Conservative peer added that “the hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild”.

Tory headquarters also acknowledged it had “in error” sent Conservative MPs an email that blamed them for failing to “get behind” the campaign and disclosed personal information, according to a report in the Times.

Sunak’s manifesto pledge to make all 18-year-olds take part in a year-long military placement or to carry out 25 days of compulsory “volunteering” in the community is his biggest policy statement to date.

But Starmer attempted to draw a distinction between his offer of “stability” and Sunak’s approach to government, which he said amounted to “a new plan every week, a new strategy every month”.

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Speaking in West Sussex, he vowed to put “country first, party second”, in an attempt to reassure floating voters that he had buried the legacy of left-wing former leader Jeremy Corbyn.

He acknowledged that voters still had questions about Labour and whether his party had changed enough for voters to trust him with their money and with the country’s borders and security.

“My answer is yes, you can, because I have changed my party permanently,” he said.

The Labour leader’s speech was an attempt to establish himself in the minds of voters, many of whom have reservations about him: Starmer is less popular than his party.

YouGov polling last week found that 34 per cent of people had a favourable view of the Labour leader compared with 53 per cent holding a negative view.

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Starmer told his audience he grew up in Oxted, a village on the Surrey/Kent border that was “about as English as it gets” but that his family experienced real hardship growing up.

He said that in the 1970s, when inflation was out of control, his family had the phone disconnected because they could not pay all their bills, adding that this informed his belief in the need for economic stability.

Conservatives have focused on Starmer’s record of ditching policies, including many of the left-wing ones he espoused in 2020 when running to succeed Corbyn as Labour leader.

Richard Holden, Conservative party chair, said: “Once again Keir Starmer stood up to tell the country absolutely nothing. In this wearisome and rambling speech there was no policy, no substance, and no plan.”

Starmer, asked whether he stood by the promise he made to axe student tuition fees, said that was still “an option” and there was “a powerful case for change” to the ways students and universities were funded.

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But he said a Labour government would face difficult choices and his priority would be the NHS.

Starmer also defended Labour’s plan to end the VAT tax break for private schools, but said the money raised would be used to appoint 6,500 more teachers to state secondary schools.

“I understand the aspirations of those who work and save to send their children to private schools,” he said, before adding that he also understood the aspirations of those, like himself, who sent their children to state schools.

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Nebraska activists seek to put opposing abortion questions on the ballot

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Nebraska activists seek to put opposing abortion questions on the ballot

Demonstrators came to the Nebraska Capitol in Lincoln last year to protest plans to revive an abortion ban last year. They were prompted by the sentencing of an 18-year-old woman to 90 days in jail for burning and burying a fetus after she took medication given to her by her mother to end her pregnancy.

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Margery Beck/AP

OMAHA, Nebraska — At a farmers’ market in midtown Omaha, abortion politics are playing out near the produce stands, flower vendors and a brass band.

Petitioners for two opposing ballot measures have set up folding tables near each other, competing for signatures from registered voters. One initiative would put an amendment in the state’s constitution allowing abortion until fetal viability – usually about 24 weeks. That would replace the current ban on most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy currently in state law.

Samantha Weatherington stopped to sign the fetal viability proposal. To her, the state’s current ban is too restrictive.

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“It’s terrifying to think that we can’t even make choices of our own bodies again, it’s like going back to the ‘40s and ’50s,” she said. “I don’t want to see people’s daughters using a coat hanger as a last resort.”

Less than 20 feet away is another table where petitioners solicit signatures for a different ballot question. This would ask voters to put the current 12-week ban into the constitution.

Andrew Shradar planned to sign that petition.

“I believe that it’s a human being at conception,” he said. “Protecting the unborn is what needs to be done no matter what, and for the two petitions that are being held right now, that’s the one I’m going to sign.”

At a farmers’ market in midtown Omaha, Richard Riscol solicits signatures for a petition to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would limit abortion at 12 weeks of pregnancy.

At a farmers’ market in midtown Omaha, Richard Riscol solicits signatures for a petition to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would limit abortion at 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Elizabeth Rembert/Nebraska Public Media

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Since The Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion in 2022, the issue has been fought out state by state. It is already on the ballot in Colorado, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota and there are efforts underway in six more states.

The opposing groups have to get on the ballot and then compete

In several, like Arizona and Missouri, abortion rights supporters are going to the voters to get around Republican-led legislatures that have passed laws restricting abortion.

That’s the case in Nebraska too, but with the added twist of the competing campaigns. Four months after the abortion rights groups got going on the fetal viability proposal, activists opposing abortion started the drive for the 12-week ban.

To get on the ballot, the campaigns have until July 3 to collect signatures from 10% of the state’s registered voters – about 123,000 people. That has to include signatures from 5% of voters in at least 38 of Nebraska’s 93 counties. To pass, the ballot proposals require majority approval, with votes from at least 35% of those casting ballots in the November election.

There’s a chance they could both get on the ballot. “This is where the conflict arises,” said Sec. of State Bob Evnen in an interview. “You have two conflicting initiatives proposing an amendment to the Nebraska constitution. That conflict has to be resolved.”

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And while it’s up to the governor – after the vote – to rule officially that two amendments are in conflict, he says he thinks these do. “They are wholly in conflict with each other,” he said. “There’s nothing to reconcile.”

Evnen says that would test for the first time a law established in 1912 that says that if they both pass, then whichever proposal gets more approving votes will be adopted in the state’s constitution.

“It’s possible that one of the proposals could get approved and not be adopted,” Evnen said. “It’ll come down to, whichever one receives the most votes is the one that would go into Nebraska’s constitution.”

Voter education will be key

That could all lead to confusing choices for Nebraska voters. Rachel Rebouché, a reproductive and family law expert and dean of Temple University’s law school, said that twist will make outreach even more important for each campaign.

“Having to choose between 12 weeks and fetal viability is going to slice voters up in different ways,” she said. “Each side has a stable group of supporters. But how are they going to reach people who have abortion ambivalence and convince them that their stance is the best option?”

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For now, both campaigns said they’re focusing on getting their proposal onto the November ballot. Once that’s cleared, they said they’ll turn to educating and turning out voters, since a majority might not be enough to win.

“Decisions about pregnancy are personal, and they should be made between medical providers and the patient,” said Allie Berry, campaign manager for Protect Our Rights, which backs the fetal viability amendment. “A lot of people agree with that and are excited to sign.”

Brenna Grasz, treasurer for Protect Women & Children, is confident in the 12-week ban petition drive. “We believe that Nebraska voters are majority pro-life, and the vote in November will reflect that.”

One of her allies, Nebraska Right to Life President Sandy Danek, says she supports the 12-week amendment in part because it will allow for tighter abortion limits in law later. “It does give us an ability to go back to the Nebraska legislature and seek further protections,” she said. “I can’t tell you when the body will be in a place to do that, but this initiative does give us that liberty.”

Elizabeth Rembert reports for Nebraska Public Media.

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Chinese industrial profits return to growth

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Chinese industrial profits return to growth

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Profits at China’s industrial companies returned to growth in April, highlighting Beijing’s efforts to boost manufacturing as other areas of the world’s second-largest economy struggle to regain momentum.

Industrial profits at businesses with more than Rmb20mn ($2.8mn) in turnover increased 4 per cent year on year in April after a decline of 3.5 per cent in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. So far this year, their profits are up 4.3 per cent, unchanged compared with the rate in the first quarter after a large jump at the start of the year.

The improved April data follows a rise in Chinese exports in the same month after a push from Xi Jinping’s government to boost “high-quality development” in manufacturing, which prompted complaints from western leaders over perceived overcapacity.

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The EU is carrying out a probe into state support for Chinese electric vehicle production, while US President Joe Biden this month introduced 100 per cent tariffs on EV imports from China, where intense domestic competition has spurred a price war.

Recent economic data in China is being closely watched for further evidence of the government’s strategy as it grapples with a historic property sector slowdown and weak consumption. Exports in April grew 1.5 per cent year on year in dollar terms, while industrial production jumped 6.7 per cent.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted strong increases in profits across equipment manufacturing in the first four months, with profits in electronics and transportation equipment growing by 76 per cent and 41 per cent, respectively.

Yu Weining, statistician for the National Bureau of Statistics, also emphasised the contribution of equipment manufacturing and said market demand picked up in April, citing the impact of “macroeconomic policies”.

But Yu added that domestic demand remained “insufficient” and that the development of new productive forces — a widely used term in China for its recent focus on manufacturing — still needed to be “accelerated”.

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State-owned companies’ profits dropped 2.8 per cent year on year in the first four months of 2024, the data showed, while profits at private groups rose 6.4 per cent and those at foreign businesses grew 16.7 per cent.

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