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Analysis: Japan’s tough talk on Russia is really about China

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Analysis: Japan’s tough talk on Russia is really about China

Within the first days of the invasion, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was fast to border the Ukraine disaster as a worldwide problem. “It is a very critical scenario which does not simply have an effect on Europe, but additionally Asia and the entire world order,” he advised reporters.

For Japan, help for Ukraine serves a twin function, in response to Yoko Iwama, a global relations and safety professional on the Nationwide Graduate Institute of Coverage Research.

“The aim of Japan’s response is to ship a message that we’ll be prepared and we are going to resist if there’s an invasion (of Japanese territory), that we’ll not permit the borders to be modified by pressure,” stated Iwama.

“We do not need an actual struggle, the target is political — that China is persuaded from an aggressive act just like the one which Putin has taken within the final a number of days and weeks.”

It is in opposition to that backdrop that Japan’s former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, raised a beforehand unthinkable suggestion throughout an interview three days after the Russian invasion.

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Abe, nonetheless an influential determine within the ruling Liberal Democratic Occasion, floated the concept of Japan coming into a NATO-like nuclear weapons sharing program — internet hosting US nuclear weapons on Japanese soil. It was a surprising proposal for nation that suffered the devastating impression of the 2 atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki throughout World Battle II — however one Abe says ought to now not be taboo.

Completely different instances, altering techniques

Japan’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine differs markedly to its actions after Moscow’s assault on Crimea in 2014.

Then, underneath Abe, Japan was referred to as out for being too sluggish to behave. Now its technique is completely different — and the urgency arguably better.

Again in 2014, Abe adopted the tactic of pulling Russia nearer to stop it tightening ties with China, stated James Brown, an affiliate professor of political science at Temple College in Tokyo.

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Russia had annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea by sending in armed forces to take over key services and foment a separatist riot that rumbled on for eight years.

Tokyo initially handled Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea area as a Western problem, in response to Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific research on the Council on International Relations.

“(The Japanese authorities) handled it a little bit bit like a problem for the Europeans and Individuals to cope with; that it wasn’t actually about Japan, however that they’d go together with it,” Smith stated.

She stated Abe harbored hopes that Russian chief Vladimir Putin would signal on to the normalization of Russia-Japan ties or a full peace treaty formally ending hostilities courting again to World Battle II.

However Japan’s softer stance in opposition to Russia drew worldwide criticism, and Tokyo finally joined its Western allies in imposing sanctions on Russia, together with diplomatic measures consisting of suspending talks associated to easing visa necessities, a journey ban and the freezing of sure people’ belongings.

Nevertheless, this 12 months the size and horror of the disaster unfolding in Ukraine has prompted Japan to push a constant message of unity with its G7 companions to indicate it is a “reliable associate,” in response to Brown, from Temple College.

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“You hear time and time once more, the federal government say — ‘and alongside our G7 and different worldwide companions, we are going to coordinate in taking a troublesome response on this problem’ — they do not wish to be seen as out of step,” Brown stated.

Japan wants G7 help — notably from the US — to include any transfer from Beijing on Taiwan, the island which China claims as its territory regardless of having by no means ruled it.

So final week, Japan added much more sanctions in opposition to Russia and Belarus — freezing the belongings of a further 32 Russian and Belarusian officers and oligarchs. And in a uncommon transfer, it additionally reviewed its tips on the switch of protection gear abroad, paving the way in which for the transport of bulletproof vests and helmets to Ukraine. Tokyo has additionally joined the push to chop Russia from the SWIFT banking system and has frozen Russian chief Vladimir Putin’s belongings.

Specialists says Japan needs to maintain in line with its worldwide allies within the face of the unfolding human tragedy and China’s rising army would possibly.

‘Sense of urgency’

For many years after World Battle II, Japan’s pacifist structure prevented it from build up its army energy. Article 9 of the doc stated that “land, sea and air forces, in addition to different struggle potential won’t ever be maintained.”
However lately, the nation has signaled a transfer in direction of better army spending, and final December Prime Minister Kishida introduced the federal government was exploring choices to provide it the aptitude to strike enemy bases.

China is taken into account a significant risk, however the mixed energy of Russia and China has put Japan underneath appreciable stress.

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Final 12 months, the 2 nations carried out what was billed as the primary joint China-Russia naval patrol within the western Pacific. Vessels sailed via the Tsugaru Strait that separates Japan’s principal island and its northern island of Hokkaido, earlier than heading down the nation’s japanese coast after which again towards China via the Osumi Strait off the southern Japanese island of Kyushu.

International vessels are permitted to sail via the Osumi and Tsugaru straits — each worldwide waters — however Japan intently monitored the maneuvers, which the nation’s Protection Division referred to as “uncommon.”

Japan’s Ministry of Protection stated on Friday that 10 Russian Navy vessels, together with a frigate, had sailed via the Tsugaru Strait the day prior to this, towards the Sea of ​​Japan.

Japan has territorial disputes with each China and Russia. Final 12 months, Japanese Protection Minister Nobuo Kishi advised CNN the Senkaku Islands, often called the Diaoyu Islands in China, are unquestionably Japanese territory and could be defended as such. Japan additionally contests Russia’s declare to the Kuril Islands, an island chain off Hokkaido.

After which there’s Taiwan, which sits to the south in waters used to ferry 90% of Japan oil provides.

Final 12 months, Japan authorised a document protection price range for 2022 of 5.4 trillion yen ($47.2 billion), which exceeded 1 p.c of its GDP.

Some say the Ukraine disaster on prime of native safety concerns exhibits it must commit much more.

Breaking down taboos

However additional protection funding is only one facet of Japan’s armor in opposition to an escalation of regional tensions.

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Final month, Abe has used his place as former chief to boost one other much more controversial prospect — the concept of internet hosting US nuclear weapons in Japan.

“Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has its three non-nuclear ideas, nevertheless it’s important to grasp how the world’s safety is maintained, and we should not deal with these discussions as a taboo,” Abe advised Fuji Tv.

Kishida instantly dismissed the suggestion, calling it “unacceptable,” whereas anti-nuclear activists had been predictably outraged.

Japan falls inside the US nuclear umbrella however has lengthy dominated out internet hosting nuclear weapons resulting from devastation wrought by atomic bombs dropped throughout World Battle II.

When requested about Abe’s feedback in a daily press briefing, China’s International Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stated Japanese politicians had made “wild feedback” that “brazenly violate its personal Three Non-Nuclear Ideas and the obligations of a celebration to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).”

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“By elevating nuclear sharing with the US, Japan has totally uncovered the damaging tendency of lingering militarism within the nation,” he added.

Within the interview, Abe additionally referred to as for the US to take a extra specific place on the protection of Taiwan over whether or not or not it might defend the self-ruled island if Beijing had been to assault.

Final 12 months, US President Joe Biden stated the US would defend Taiwan if it had been to return underneath assault from China, a remark that appeared incongruous with America’s acknowledged coverage of “strategic ambiguity.”

Nevertheless, later a authorities official stated the US was not saying any change to its coverage on Taiwan — underneath the “One China” Coverage, the US acknowledges China’s declare of sovereignty over Taiwan.

One factor is evident: Russia’s assault on Ukraine has rattled the Japanese and has compelled them to face questions some would possibly in any other case keep away from.

“Individuals are asking, ‘Will the USA actually are available in if the Chinese language assault? Will the USA go to struggle with China?’” stated Smith, from the Council on International Relations.

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“These are all current questions which have been effervescent up underneath the floor, based mostly on the capabilities first of North Korea, but additionally China. And I believe that is additionally being laid naked as Putin makes use of nuclear threats,” she added.

Journalist Yuki Kurihara contributed to this report from Tokyo.

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Trump Calls Officials Handling Los Angeles Wildfires ‘Incompetent’

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Trump Calls Officials Handling Los Angeles Wildfires ‘Incompetent’

President-elect Donald J. Trump offered fresh criticism early Sunday of the officials in charge of fighting the Los Angeles wildfires, calling them “incompetent” and asking why the blazes were not yet extinguished.

“The fires are still raging in L.A.,” Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social site. “The incompetent pols have no idea how to put them out.”

Mr. Trump’s comments indicated that the fires, and officials’ response to them, will likely occupy a prominent place on his domestic political agenda when he takes office on Jan. 20. He has renewed a longstanding feud with California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, who in turn has accused Mr. Trump of politicizing the fires.

California politicians have faced criticism over the fires since they broke out on Tuesday, including questions over how local and state authorities had prepared for them and how they have grown so quickly into huge blazes.

Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles had to contend with questions about whether there was adequate warning about the likelihood of devastating fires, and why there was a shortage of water and firefighters during the initial response. At a news conference on Thursday, she avoided a question about her absence from the city when the fires began — she was in Ghana on a previously scheduled official visit — and said that any evaluation of mistakes or failures by “any body, department, individual” would come later.

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Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, has also fended off criticism from Mr. Trump, who blamed him for the failure to contain fires and claimed he had blocked an infusion of water to Southern California over concerns about how it would affect a threatened fish species.

Mr. Newsom’s press office responded by saying in a statement that the “water restoration declaration” that Mr. Trump had accused him of not signing did not exist. “The governor is focused on protecting people, not playing politics, and making sure firefighters have all the resources they need,” the statement said.

Mr. Newsom and Kathryn Barger, the chair of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, have invited Mr. Trump to tour fire damage in the city. He has not responded publicly to those invitations.

At least 16 people had died as a result of the fires as of Sunday morning, and at least 12,000 structures had been destroyed, officials said. Mr. Trump alluded to that devastation in his post on Sunday.

“Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost,” he wrote. “There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our Country. They just can’t put out the fires. What’s wrong with them?”

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His post did not mention any officials by name.

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Russia’s war economy is a house of cards

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Russia’s war economy is a house of cards

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The most important thing Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to impress on Ukraine’s western friends is that he has time on his side, so the only way to end the war is to accommodate his wishes. The apparent resilience of Russia’s economy, and the resulting scepticism in some corners that western sanctions have had an effect, is a central part of this information warfare. 

The reality is that the financial underpinnings of Russia’s war economy increasingly look like a house of cards — so much so that senior members of the governing elite are publicly expressing concern. They include Sergei Chemezov, chief executive of state defence giant Rostec, who warned that expensive credit was killing his weapons export business, and Elvira Nabiullina, head of the central bank. 

This pair know better than many people in the west, who have been taken in by numbers indicating steady growth, low unemployment and rising wages. But any economy on a full mobilisation footing can produce such outcomes: this is basic Keynesianism. The real test is how already employed resources — rather than idle ones — are being shifted away from their previous uses and into the needs of war. 

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A state has three methods to achieve this: borrowing, inflation and expropriation. It must choose the most effective and painless mix. Putin’s conceit — towards both the west and his own public — has been that he can fund this war without financial instability or significant material sacrifices. But this is an illusion. If Chemezov’s and Nabiullina’s frustrations are spilling into public view, it means the illusion is flickering.

A new report by Russia analyst and former banker Craig Kennedy highlights the huge growth in Russian corporate debt. It has soared by 71 per cent since 2022 and dwarfs new household and government borrowing.

Notionally private, this lending is in reality a creature of the state. Putin has commandeered the Russian banking system, with banks required to lend to companies designated by the government at chosen, preferential terms. The result has been a flood of below-market-rate credit to favoured economic actors.

In essence, Russia is engaged in massive money printing, outsourced so that it does not show up on the public balance sheet. Kennedy estimates the total at about 20 per cent of Russia’s 2023 national output, comparable to the cumulative on-budget allocations for the full-scale war.

We can tell from the Kremlin’s actions that it sees two things as anathema: visibly weak public finances and runaway inflation.

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The government eschews a significant budget deficit, despite growing war-related spending. The central bank remains free to raise interest rates, currently at 21 per cent. Not enough to beat down inflation driven by state-decreed subsidised credit, but enough to keep price growth within bounds.

The upshot is that Chemezov’s and Nabiullina’s problems are not an error that can be fixed but inherent to Putin’s choice to flatter public finances and keep a (high) lid on inflation. Something else has to give, and that something else includes businesses that cannot operate profitably when borrowing costs exceed 20 per cent.

Putin’s privatised credit scheme, meanwhile, is storing up a credit crisis as the loans go bad. The state may bail out the banks — if they don’t collapse first. Given Russians’ experience of suddenly worthless deposits, fears of a repeat could easily trigger self-fulfilling runs. That would destroy not just banks’ but the government’s legitimacy.

Putin, in short, does not have time on his side. He sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making. The key for Ukraine’s friends is to deny him the one thing that would defuse it: greater access to external funds.

The west has blocked Moscow’s access to some $300bn in reserves, put spanners in the works of its oil trade and hit its ability to import a range of goods. Combined, these prevent Russia from spending all its foreign earnings to relieve resource constraints at home. Intensifying sanctions and finally transferring reserves to Ukraine as a down payment on reparations would intensify those constraints.

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Putin’s obsession is the sudden collapse of power. That, as he must be realising, is the risk his war economics has set in motion. Making it recede, by increasing access to external resources through sanctions relief, will be his goal in any diplomacy. The west must convince him that this will not happen. That, and only that, will force Putin to choose between his assault on Ukraine and his grip on power at home.

martin.sandbu@ft.com

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates
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LOS ANGELES − Fire crews on Sunday were racing to gain an upper hand against infernos that have ignited across the Los Angeles area amid ominous new wind warnings as flames threatened additional Southern California communities.

Aircraft unloaded water and fire retardant on hills where the Palisades Fire − the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles − ballooned another 1,000 acres to a total of 23,654, destroying more homes. The expansion of the fire, which was 11% contained, to the north and east spurred officials to issue more mandatory evacuations to the west of the 405 freeway as the blaze put parts of Encino and Brentwood in peril.

Cal Fire official Todd Hopkins said the Palisades Fire had spread into the Mandeville Canyon neighborhood and threatened to jump into the upscale Brentwood community and the San Fernando Valley.

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The Palisades Fire is one of six blazes that have erupted since Tuesday, leaving at least 16 people dead. Four of the six fires remained active on Sunday.

Santa Ana winds that have fueled the blazes for the past week were expected to strengthen Sunday morning in Los Angeles and Ventura counties and again late Monday through Tuesday morning. Sustained winds could reach 30 mph, with gusts up to 70 mph possible , forecasters said.

“Critical fire-weather conditions will unfortunately ramp up again … for southern California and last through at least early next week as periodic enhancements of off-shore winds continue,” the National Weather Service said. “This may lead to the spread of ongoing fires as well as the development of new ones.”

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Developments:

∎ About12,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed from the wildfires, which have consumed about 38,000 acres of land total, according to CalFire.

∎ Evacuation orders throughout the Los Angeles area now cover 153,000 residents. Another 166,000 residents have been warned that they may have to evacuate, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna, said.

∎ Gov. Gavin Newsom announced an investigation into water supply issues that may have impeded firefighters’ efforts.

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At least 16 people have died between the Eaton and Palisades fires, the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Saturday.

The Palisades Fire had at least five deaths, according to medical examiner records, and 11 people have died in the Eaton Fire.

Of the 16 total deaths in both fires, the only victim identified by officials was Victor Shaw, 66, who died Wednesday protecting his home in Altadena. Another victim was man in his 80s, but authorities did not release his name, pending notification of next of kin.

To the northeast, the Eaton Fire stood at 14,117 acres and was 15% contained after ripping through parts of Altadena and Pasadena. More than 7,000 structures were damaged or destroyed,  Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said.

In Altadena, California official Don Fregulia said managing the Eaton Fire and its impact will be a “huge, Herculean task” that he said will take “many weeks of work.”

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Progress was reported Saturday in bringing electrical power back to some Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Southern California Edison CEO Steven Powell said there are now about 48,000 customers without power, “down from over half a million just a couple days ago.”

Yes fire officials warned public safety power shutoffs were again likely to prevent new fires being ignited.

“They help save lives,” Marrone said. “Yes, they’re a challenge to deal with, but it’s certainly better than having another fire start.”

Richard and Cathryn Conn evacuated from the Pacific Palisades neighborhood earlier this week, only to find out that much of their neighborhood had been decimated. But they still aren’t sure about their four-bedroom house where they’d lived for over a quarter-century.

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“You can visualize every room,’’ Richard Conn, 75, said, “and then you know there’s a 50% chance it doesn’t exist anymore.”

“If you have ever wondered what it was like living in Dresden after the World War II firebombing, you should come to the Palisades,” he said.

They also don’t know what’s going to happen next as dangerous weather conditions have made it difficult to contain the fires, and more brush fires seem to keep popping up all over the county.

“I feel like people are panicking,” said Gary Baseman, 64. Read more.

As California fire officials are still getting to the bottom of what sparked the wildfires raging across Los Angeles, and politicians point fingers at one another, climate change is helping drive an increase in large wildfires in the U.S.

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“Climate change is leading to larger and more severe wildfires in the western United States,” the latest National Climate Assessment previously reported. These fires have “significant public health, socioeconomic, and ecological implications for the nation.”

But is climate change the main factor in California? It’s not quite that simple. Reporters from the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, dive into this topic. Read more here

Contributing: Jeanine Santucci, Eduardo Cuevas; Reuters

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