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Fox News Poll: Trump hits 50% in Wisconsin, edges Harris by just 1 point

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Fox News Poll: Trump hits 50% in Wisconsin, edges Harris by just 1 point


At this same point in the election cycle four years ago, Joe Biden was ahead of Donald Trump by 9 percentage points among Wisconsin voters in a two-way presidential matchup. Now, just days after the Republican National Convention ended in Milwaukee, a new Fox News survey shows Wisconsinites give the advantage to Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris — by 1 point. 

Harris receives 49% support to Trump’s 50%. In April, it was 48% each for Biden and Trump, and it was also tied in January (47% apiece).  In June 2020, Biden was at 49% to Trump’s 40%.

Trump’s edge is mainly due to an expanded 14-point lead among men, up from an 8-point lead over Biden in April. He is also favored over Harris among White men without a college degree (by 20 points), rural voters (+15), and White voters (+2).

Harris receives a bit more support among Democrats (96%) than Trump gets among Republicans (93%), but he makes up the difference by having a 4-point advantage among Independents. 

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HARRIS’ SHIFT FROM TOUGH-ON-CRIME PROSECUTOR TO SOCIAL JUSTICE ADVOCATE FACES SCRUTINY FROM CONSERVATIVE GROUP

Some of Harris’ best groups include urban voters (+19 over Trump), Whites with a college degree (+18), and suburban women (+13). Her numbers roughly match or are a bit higher than Biden’s were in April among Whites without a college degree (+5), Independents (+5), voters under 35 (+4), women (+3), Democrats (+1), Whites (+1), and those ages 65 and over (-1).

The biggest shift is among “double haters” (voters with unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden). Trump was ahead by 1 point in April, but they now favor Harris by 25 points. There are too few Harris-Trump double haters to breakout by vote preference. 

Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump is favored by 3 points among new voters (haven’t voted in four most recent general elections), and union households go for him by 2 points, which is different from what we see in a couple of other northern industrial states. Union voters prefer Harris by 6 points in Michigan and by 15 points in Minnesota. 

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Biden’s personal favorable rating was negative by 10 points in April and now he’s underwater by 12.  It’s the reverse for Trump, who went from being underwater by 10 points to negative 5 in the new survey. Harris is more popular than both at 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. JD Vance’s favorability is negative by 7 points, while 15% are unable to rate him. 

TRUMP TO RETURN TO PENNSYLVANIA FOR FIRST TIME SINCE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

Fifteen percent of Wisconsin voters say they are getting ahead financially, up from 11% six months ago. Still, most continue to feel they are holding steady (41%) or falling behind (43%). 

By far, the economy will be the deciding issue this fall.  It’s the top priority for 37%, trailed by abortion and immigration at 15% each. All other issues are in the single digits.

Majorities of those prioritizing the economy and immigration back Trump (by 38 and 81 points respectively), while those putting abortion as their top issue prefer Harris by 78 points.

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“This poll shows Harris in a slightly stronger position in Wisconsin than Biden based on personal favorability,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose company Beacon Research conducts Fox News surveys along with Republican Daron Shaw.  “However, with many voters feeling strained financially and union households breaking for Trump, she has work to do convincing voters they’ll be better off continuing with a Democrat in the White House.”

In a potential 5-way race, Harris and Trump tie at 46% each, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 5%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each.  Support for Kennedy was 9% in April.

Kennedy takes more support from Trump (6%) than Harris (2%), but it evens out because the other candidates also take from her (3%).

The large 75% approval of Biden withdrawing from the presidential race is widespread, as it includes 88% of Democrats and two-thirds of Republicans (65%) and Independents (69%).

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks following her meeting with Netanyahu on Thursday. (AP/Julia Nikhinson)

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That consensus disappears on the issue of Biden finishing his term: 92% of Democrats and 58% Independents think he should, while 57% of Republicans think he should resign.  Overall, two-thirds think he should stick around. 

In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes, less than one percentage point. Trump’s 2016 victory was also by less than a point (22,748 votes). 

Poll-pourri

In the senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads likely Republican challenger Eric Hovde by a 54-43% margin, running 5 points ahead of Harris’ support in the presidential race. (The Wisconsin primary is August 13.)

More Trump supporters are ticket splitters, as 83% of his backers favor Hovde, while 96% of Harris supporters go for Baldwin. 

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Overall, three-quarters of Wisconsin voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election, and they split 50% Harris vs. 49% Trump. That’s because slightly more Harris supporters (76%) than Trump supporters (73%) say they are extremely motivated.

Former US President Donald Trump arrives to the Republican National Convention (RNC) at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US, on Wednesday, July 17, 2024. The RNC chairman warned against complacency when his party concludes its official nominating jamboree this week with polls predicting ex-President Donald Trump prevailing over President Joe Biden in the November election.   (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Fully 84% of Wisconsin Democrats want Harris to replace Biden as their party’s nominee — no other candidate gets more than 2% support.  

CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND CROSSTABS

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Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,046 Wisconsin registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cellphones (649) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (270). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.



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Chilly Start To Easter but at least it is drying out in SE Wisconsin

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Chilly Start To Easter but at least it is drying out in SE Wisconsin


Chilly Start To Easter but at least it is drying out in SE Wisconsin

After a very wet start to the month, we are finally drying out in SE Wisconsin

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WE POSTED IT UNDER THE LINKS TAB ON THE 12 NEWS APP, AND YOU’RE GOING TO WANT TO DRESS WARMLY IF YOU’RE HEADED TO BRUNCH TOMORROW. CHURCH, YOU MIGHT NEED A JACKET. >> YEAH, WIND CHILLS ARE GOING TO BE IN THE 20S, SO IT’S NOT EXACTLY GOING TO BE WARM. IT GETS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AS THE DAY GOES ON, AND WE WILL GET SOME SUN TOMORROW. MORE THAN WHAT WE’VE HAD FOR TODAY. NOW SOME OF YOU GETTING A LITTLE GLIMPSE HERE AND THERE. THE SUN, IT HASN’T LASTED VERY LONG. BUT THE GOOD THING IS IT’S A DRY DAY. BUT THE CROWD. IF YOU’RE TRYING TO DO EASTER EGG HUNTS OUTSIDE, IT IS MUDDY, MUSHY. TAKE IT FROM A GUY WHO PLAYED GOLF TODAY. IT WAS VERY, VERY WET, COOLER, MORE SUNSHINE. AS THE DAY GOES ON, WHICH IS NICE. WE’LL GET MORE SUN, BUT WE’RE DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO AROUND 50. ALL RIGHT, LET’S TALK ABOUT NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CHILLY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY ESPECIALLY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. THAT’S NOT GOING TO BE VERY NICE. SHOWERS LIKELY. WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY. FRIDAY. SATURDAY. WE DON’T NEED THE RAIN BUT WE HAVE MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. WHEN I SAY WE DON’T NEED RAIN, THIS IS WHAT I MEAN. FOR THE MONTH, WE’VE ONLY HAD FOUR DAYS AND WE’VE HAD 3.5IN OF RAIN. WE ARE WAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH AND THAT HAS MADE US A PRETTY GOOD AMOUNT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE YEAR. AND IT’S ALL ABOUT THE LAST FOUR DAYS WHEN YOU PICKED UP SO MUCH RAIN. IT’S JUST BEEN ROUND AFTER ROUND. AND YES, MORE RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. CHECK OUT THE SATELLITE MAP. YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT OVER MINNEAPOLIS RIGHT NOW. THAT IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BRING THESE CLOUDS AROUND, BUT THERE’S GOING TO BE MORE BREAKS AS TIME GOES ON. I THINK TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE A DECENT DAY. THERE ARE A FEW. WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE LITTLE PASSING FLURRIES. AND THEN FOR TOMORROW MIGHT GET AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE LATER IN THE DAY. BUT IT’S IT’S NOT BAD. STILL WINDY THOUGH. NOT AS WINDY AS IT IS RIGHT NOW. ALL RIGHT. AGAIN, THIS IS KIND OF WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT WITH THESE PASSING FLURRIES. THIS IS MONDAY AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT’S THE SAME KIND OF STORY. IT’S NOT COMPLETELY SUNNY. IT’S NOT COMPLETELY CLOUDY. AGAIN, POSSIBLY SEEING A TINY FLURRY OR TWO. NOW NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK OUR WAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THAT’S WHEN THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BE COMING IN. OVERALL, YES, A SOGGY FORECAST STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. WE’RE NOT GOING TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME, BUT IT’S GOING TO BE ROUNDS OF RAIN. AND AGAIN, WE DON’T REALLY NEED IT LIVE. LOOK OUTSIDE. THAT. IT’S ACTUALLY PRETTY 43 DEGREES IN WAUKESHA AND WIND CHILLS ARE HANGING OUT AROUND. FREEZING. WON’T BE LONG. THEY’LL BE CARS BACK ON THE TRACKS. THERE WILL BE TONS OF PEOPLE ENJOYING ROAD AMERICA AND IT WON’T BE LONG. WE’LL SEE A LOT OF BOATS OUT HERE ON DELAVAN LAKE. TEMPERATURE 45 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW YOU CAN SEE THAT COOL AIR AND IT’S NOT GOING TO GO ANYWHERE. IT’S COOL AROUND HERE. RIGHT NOW, 46 IN MILWAUKEE IS THE WARMEST TEMP, 51 FOR TOMORROW. IT’S ABOUT EXACTLY NORMAL. BUT AGAIN, THE MORNING IS GOING TO BE CHILLY FOR SURE. MONDAY 46 ELECTION DAY A HIGH OF ONLY 38. BUT IT’S DRY AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY. SATURDAY. GREAT.

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Chilly Start To Easter but at least it is drying out in SE Wisconsin

After a very wet start to the month, we are finally drying out in SE Wisconsin

Updated: 5:57 PM CDT Apr 4, 2026

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After a very wet start to the month, we are finally drying out in SE Wisconsin

After a very wet start to the month, we are finally drying out in SE Wisconsin

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AMBER ALERT: Police say eight-year-old Wisconsin girl is missing

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AMBER ALERT: Police say eight-year-old Wisconsin girl is missing


Police believe she is in a vehicle last seen driving Friday afternoon in Monroe County.

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AMBER ALERT: Police say eight-year-old Wisconsin girl is missing

Police believe she is in a vehicle last seen driving Friday afternoon in Monroe County.

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Updated: 6:01 AM CDT Apr 4, 2026

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An AMBER Alert is out for a Wisconsin girl.Police say eight-year-old Irene Lentz from Wautoma may be with Joseph Nicpon Jr. and Betty Lentz.Authorities believe Irene is in a 2005 Blue Buick Terraza with the license plate number BCU3028. Police say the vehicle was last seen at approximately 12:55 p.m. Friday driving westbound on I-90 in Monroe County near Sparta.If anybody knows where Irene may be, they are asked to immediately call the Wautoma Police Department at (920) 787-3321.

An AMBER Alert is out for a Wisconsin girl.

Police say eight-year-old Irene Lentz from Wautoma may be with Joseph Nicpon Jr. and Betty Lentz.

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Wisconsin Crime Network

Police believe Irene Lentz is in this 2005 Blue Buick Terraza with the license plate number BCU3028. Authorities say the vehicle was last seen at approximately 12:55 p.m. Friday driving westbound on I-90 in Monroe County near Sparta.

Authorities believe Irene is in a 2005 Blue Buick Terraza with the license plate number BCU3028. Police say the vehicle was last seen at approximately 12:55 p.m. Friday driving westbound on I-90 in Monroe County near Sparta.

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If anybody knows where Irene may be, they are asked to immediately call the Wautoma Police Department at (920) 787-3321.

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Storms Friday night but a dry weekend ahead in SE Wisconsin

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Storms Friday night but a dry weekend ahead in SE Wisconsin


Storms Friday night but a dry weekend ahead in SE Wisconsin

More storms are likely Friday night before our weather quiets down for Easter weekend in SE Wisconsin

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RIGHT AFTER WORLD NEWS WITH DAVID MUIR AT 530. THANK YOU DIANA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING IN, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. THAT’S GOOD NEWS, MARK. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. IT IS VERY GOOD BECAUSE NO, I WOULDN’T WANT TO HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. THANKFULLY, WE’RE NOT GOING TO DO THAT. WE DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS ROLLING IN. IT’S A ROUND OF EVENING SHOWERS, BUT A LOT OF THIS IS FALLING APART. I THINK IT’S MAINLY GOING TO BE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES BY THE TIME IT GETS TO MILWAUKEE. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. YES. RAIN MOVES OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF SATURDAY IS DRY. IT GETS BREEZY. TEMPERATURES. NOT BAD THOUGH. WE’LL MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. ALL RIGHT. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT YOUR SEVERE THREAT LEVEL ONE AGAIN. LAST NIGHT WE ARE LEVEL THREE ON THE SEVERE THREAT INDEX. WE’RE NOT THERE. ANY KIND OF THREAT WOULD BE HAIL. THAT’S THAT’S OUR ONLY WORRY. I’M NOT WORRIED ABOUT TORNADOES. ANYTHING LIKE THAT. SO A LOW CHANCE OF SOME HAIL. ANY OF THE THREATS ARE VERY LOW. VERY LOW THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY WAY SOUTH. VERY, VERY, VERY, VERY LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES. I’M ALWAYS SCARED TO PUT ZERO THREAT OF TORNADOES, BUT IT’S CLOSE TO ZERO FLOODING. WELL, YOU KNOW WHAT? WE ARE WATERLOGGED. AND SO IT’S NOT GOING TO TAKE THAT MUCH RAIN. WE COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN AND THAT WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES. NOTICE HOW THIS CONTINUES TO FALL APART. IT’S A STEADY RAIN THOUGH IN WESTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY. IT’S STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CITY OF WAUKESHA AND INTO PEWAUKEE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS BACK OUT TO THE WEST OF US. THE SEVERE THREAT REALLY, I THINK IS WELL, SOUTH. THAT’S WHERE THE WARMER AIR IS LOCATED. IT’S NOT HERE. SO AS WE HEAD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, THAT MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, WE BRING IN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, MAYBE A LITTLE SMALL HAIL IN THERE AS WELL. THE COLDER AIR STARTS WRAPPING BACK IN AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MAYBE EVEN ENOUGH TO GET A PASSING FLURRY JUST IN TIME FOR EASTER MORNING. BUT THAT’S NOT GOING TO LAST LONG. EASTER IS OKAY. I WOULDN’T SAY IT’S GREAT, BUT IT’S ALL RIGHT. IT’S 49 DEGREES, A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY, EARLY, EARLY ON SATURDAY. IT’S GONE BY 8:00 AT THE LATEST. THE REST OF THE DAY IS FINE. HOW ABOUT EASTER? WELL, WE START OUT PRETTY CHILLY, 33 AT 7 A.M. IF YOU’RE GOING TO DO EASTER EGG HUNTS. ONE. IF IT’S OUTSIDE, YOU BETTER DRESS FOR IT AND ALSO BE READY FOR THE MUDDY BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BE WET. WE’RE WET ALL OVER, BUT WE’RE GREENING THINGS UP PRETTY QUICKLY HERE, THANKS TO THE FACT THAT WE’VE HAD ALL THAT RAIN YESTERDAY. 1.8IN OF RAIN IN MILWAUKEE 39 RIGHT NOW IN ELKHART LAKE, 46 DEGREES IN DELAVAN, WHERE YOU’VE HAD A PASSING SHOWER, BUT THAT HAS MOVED ON. NOT EXACTLY SEEING ANYTHING WARM UNLESS YOU GO HERE 81 DEGREES DOWN IN SAINT LOUIS. YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED. ALL RIGHT, EARLY SPRINKLES. A BREEZY DAY FOR TOMORROW. MOST OF THE DAY IS DRY, AND I DO THINK WE’LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE OFF. AND ON EASTER SUNDAY DRY, WHICH IS NICE. 49 IT’S KIND OF NICE BECAUSE MOST OF THE STRETCH AFTER WE GET THROUGH TONIGHT IS QUIET. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE QUIET. TUESDAY, OF COURSE, IS ELECTION DAY HIGH OF ONLY 38. SO DRESS WARMLY HEADING TO THE POLLS AND THEN WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP IN THE 50S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT’S OKAY.

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Storms Friday night but a dry weekend ahead in SE Wisconsin

More storms are likely Friday night before our weather quiets down for Easter weekend in SE Wisconsin

Updated: 6:30 PM CDT Apr 3, 2026

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More storms are likely Friday night before our weather quiets down for Easter weekend in SE Wisconsin

More storms are likely Friday night before our weather quiets down for Easter weekend in SE Wisconsin

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