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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Who wins, and why?
What you should watch for as No. 5 Indiana hits the road against No. 2 Ohio State in this top-five battle, with our updated prediction for the game.
Just about everything is on the line in this one, as both Big Ten rivals look to take either a major step towards College Football Playoff eligibility, or potential elimination with a loss.
Ohio State sits in third place in the Big Ten standings thanks to that 1-point loss at Oregon earlier this year and wants revenge against the Ducks in the conference championship game.
Standing in the Buckeyes’ way is an undefeated Indiana team that has won 10 games for the first time ever and playing some of the country’s most productive offense, but hoping to impress the selection committee, which is less than enthused with the Hoosiers’ 106th-ranked strength of schedule.
What can we expect as the Hoosiers take on the Buckeyes in this Big Ten clash over the weekend?
Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State and Indiana meet in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction.
1. Battle at the line. Ohio State is down two key blockers, as left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin are both out for the season with injuries.
That’s a matchup to watch against an Indiana front seven that ranks 13th in FBS in negative plays created this season, racking up 7.3 tackles for loss per game.
For its part, Ohio State is among the best groups nationally in warding off that pressure, ranking 6th in the country surrendering just 3.4 stops behind the line per game.
2. Strength vs. strength. It’s no secret that Indiana has been putting up points this year, coming into this week ranked No. 2 in the country with 43.9 points per game, behind just Miami. That figure drops by less than a point on average when playing on the road.
But the Buckeyes have proven brilliant at preventing other teams from scoring this season, ranking No. 1 in FBS by allowing just 10.3 points from opponents, a number that falls to about a touchdown allowed on average when playing at home.
3. Get to the QB. Sure, the Hoosiers can score plenty of points, but it’s their defense that could make the bigger impact in the game, especially when generating pressure against Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, whose mobility and improvisational skills are still an open question.
That vulnerability has resulted in turnovers at times this season, as he ranks fifth among quarterbacks with 7 fumbles and has accuracy problems when forced to move in the pocket.
Howard hasn’t displayed consistent speed to get away from edge rushers, and he could have a similar issue against Indiana’s Mikail Kamara, who leads the Big Ten with 9.5 sacks.
Ohio State’s quarterback has dealt with persistent accuracy concerns when forced to move around and, given the Buckeyes’ newfound injuries on the line, that could allow Indiana to design blitzes that bring pressure through the interior and force Howard to the outside and into some hurried throws.
Most football computer models expect the Buckeyes to handle the Hoosiers in this game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
Ohio State is the big favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 73.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Indiana as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.6 percent of sims.
How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?
Ohio State is projected to be 9 points better than Indiana on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
More … Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction: What the analytics say
Ohio State is a 10.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).
And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -430 and for Indiana at +330 to win outright.
Three times this year, Indiana has played a game that analysts called the biggest test of its perfect season, but the Buckeyes do actually represent a marked talent discrepancy from anyone the Hoosiers have seen yet.
And while Indiana is a solid 8-2 against the spread this season, the best mark among Power Four teams, Ohio State is the first ranked team it will play, and IU is 3-9 ATS against ranked competition over the last three seasons, the third-worst record in the country.
Indiana’s worst offensive performance of the season came against Michigan, which was perhaps uncoincidentally the best defense it played to that point, and the Buckeyes are even better at bringing pressure up front and locking down throwing lanes on the back end.
The Hoosiers will get some big gainers through the air and bother Howard in the pocket, but don’t have the tacklers to contend with the variety that Ohio State can throw at them.
College Football HQ picks …
More … Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model
When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Columbus, Ohio
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
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The Oregon Ducks and coach Dan Lanning have lost out on a top offensive lineman target for their 2027 recruiting class.
On Friday, four-star interior offensive lineman Caden Moss committed to the Ohio State Buckeyes, per On3’s Hayes Fawcett. The 6-5, 320-pound offensive lineman from Jackson Academy in Mississippi chose the Buckeyes over Oregon, Ole Miss, LSU, and Kentucky.
In his commitment post on Instagram, Moss said, “Go Bucks, I’m home.” Moss arrives at Ohio State rated as the No. 72 overall player nationally and No. 7 offensive tackle in the 2027 recruiting class, per 247Sports Composite rankings.
How Moss Commitment Impacts Oregon’s 2027 Recruiting Class Ranking
Despite the loss of Moss to their 2027 recruiting class, the Ducks are ahead of the Buckeyes in the rankings, per 247Sports. The Ducks are No. 6 in the 2027 recruiting class rankings, while the Buckeyes are two spots behind Oregon at No. 8 overall in the country.
The Ducks and Buckeyes, the way things stand at the end of June, have the two best 2027 recruiting classes in the Big Ten and are the only schools from the conference currently ranked inside the top 10. Oregon, however, has four more commits than Ohio State following Moss’ commitment to the Buckeyes on Friday.
The four Big Ten teams behind the Ducks and Buckeyes, but inside the top 20 of the 2027 recruiting class rankings, per 247Sports, include the Penn State Nittany Lions (No. 13), USC Trojans (No. 14), UCLA Bruins (No. 16), and Nebraska Cornhuskers (No. 18).
Oregon and Ohio State’s 2027 recruiting classes are very similar as they both have 11 total blue-chip commits, per 247Sports, including two five-stars and nine four-stars.
Oregon 2027 Offensive Line Commits
While wide receiver Dakota Guerrant and edge rusher Rashad Streets are Oregon’s two five-star commits in the 2027 recruiting class, the Ducks have four offensive line commits despite the loss of Moss to coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes.
Offensive lineman commits in the Ducks’ 2027 recruiting class include a pair of four-star recruits, Gus Corsair and Cameron Wagner. Three-star commits Avery Michael and Lex Mailangi also highlight the offensive line commits in the Ducks’ 2027 recruiting class.
Over the course of his four seasons as coach of the Ducks, Oregon has been known for its efficient offensive line play, building one of the best groups in the country. In the last four seasons, the Ducks have been the only school to have their offensive line named a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award.
With the commits in Oregon’s 2027 recruiting class, along with the returners that the Ducks have for the 2026 season, the offensive line looks to continue that trend heading into a year with national championship expectations.
As for the Buckeyes, Ohio State hopes that a dominant offensive lineman can help it continue to be a Big Ten championship and national title contender consistently, as it looks to avenge last season’s loss to the Miami Hurricanes in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl.
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And because of those very distinct emotional states, you’d never know that the Mariners’
Bruce Thornton was already grateful the Houston Rockets traded up with the New York Knicks to take him, but the former Ohio State star also quickly realized there was another incentive to landing in Texas.
After being projected by many mock drafts in the late 40s or early 50s entering the week, the Buckeyes’ all-time leading scorer sounds more than ready for his opportunity in Houston. He met with the media following the selection.
Were you anxious going into the night not knowing where you would land?
Bruce: For me, I’m not picky at all. Whoever wanted me and gave me, a kid from Fairburn, Georgia, an opportunity, I would be very blessed and very grateful. I’m so thankful for the Houston Rockets just taking a chance on me. And I’m going to do everything I can in my power to be the best player I can be for the Houston Rockets.
Did you know that you weren’t going to the Knicks at all?
Bruce: I knew at the last minute. Somebody said I got the wrong hat. I’m like, “What do you mean?” Then I heard the Houston Rockets. I’m like, “No state tax, so that’s even better.”
How does being a four-time team captain prepare you for the expectations of leadership as an NBA point guard?
Bruce: First, I want to thank my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, because without him, I wouldn’t be here right now. But for my experiences at Ohio State, being a four-year guy, it definitely helped me. The experience of just going through college, going through life and the stuff that you just go through, it definitely helped me prepare to talk to grown men at this level. But I feel like the experience I have at Ohio State is going to prepare me to be the best player I can be as a Houston Rocket.
What was the biggest challenge you had to overcome in order to get to this point in your life right now?
Bruce: I feel like for me, from a basketball standpoint, I didn’t make it to March Madness my first three years of college. A lot of people chose to leave and make better situations to get to March Madness, but I just wanted to do it at Ohio State. So I did everything I could. My coaching staff helped me. I did a lot of praying, using my faith to the best of my ability, and I got through it my senior year. One of the best feelings, I ever decided to stay at Ohio State for all four years.
Throughout your basketball journey, is there someone that you’ve considered a mentor or looked up to that shaped the player you are today?
Bruce: First, my mother. She sacrificed so much. She also played at the University of Georgia, so she taught me a lot of things like handling the cookie jar, make sure you hold your follow through, boxing out, stuff I didn’t want to hear at all. But she definitely helped me.
And my friends from back home. It was all of our dream to be in the NBA. And for them to have my support, and having a great support cast throughout this journey was a big thing. The village I had behind me throughout this journey really helped me get to the point I am right now.
When Rockets fans start watching you professionally, is there a part of your game that you think will surprise them the most?
Bruce: I think I’m a winner. I want to win everything I possibly can. I’m trying to impact winning. For me, I feel like everybody eats when everybody wins. So I do everything I can. Whatever they ask me to do, I’m going to make sure I do it at a high level and with a great attitude.
When people look back at your career 10 or 15 years from now, what do you hope they remember most about you?
Bruce: I just hope I’m just a kid that gave everything I got each and every night. When I put that jersey on, I’m just going to perform at the best I can each and every night. I’m never going to quit. I’m never going to stop giving up. So I hope everybody can take that one thing from me, that when you have the opportunity, take full advantage of it.
What do you think you will bring to the Houston Rockets in terms of your attitude, work ethic and willingness to get one percent better each and every day?
Bruce: I think it starts on defense. Me just getting to the ball, being disruptive and making big-time shots. We got great players like Sengun and KD at a very high level. So me just filling in my role at a high level, doing the things they need me to do and just impacting winning as much as I possibly can, and being a great teammate in the locker room.
What is the biggest adjustment you expect to have to make in the NBA?
Bruce: The biggest adjustment is probably playing over 100 games in a year. There’s a deep playoff team this year. So [it’s up to] me just adjusting my body, having the time management skills to play over 100 games and try to win a championship.
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