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The Twin Cities’ Immense Variation in Housing Affordability

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The Twin Cities’ Immense Variation in Housing Affordability


In February, I wrote about how low and flat rents in Minneapolis were contributing to a slowdown in the city’s housing development. The city has built lots of housing in the past few years, in part enabled by recent zoning reforms, helping keep rents low. My main takeaway was that this was a good thing, especially to the extent that we could credit an expansion in housing supply for maintaining this level of affordability. 

I also included an important caveat: Although Minneapolis is pretty affordable, large gaps still remain. For the city’s lower-income residents, housing is still out of reach, reflecting the limitations of market-rate housing — without further public subsidy, housing can only get so cheap. 

Minneapolis’ affordability has a second caveat. While housing costs are quite low on average, patterns of housing affordability are uneven throughout the city. Different neighborhoods of Minneapolis have substantially different housing costs. And if we zoom out to the larger metropolitan area, spatial differences in housing costs are even more striking. This is an outcome of structural factors and should be seen as an important problem to address in the region. 

Uneven Geography of Housing Affordability

Last July, a Minnesota-based committee for the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights published a report on fair housing in the Twin Cities region. Much of the report’s focus was on “capital-A Affordable” housing, which relies on subsidies to set rents at restricted levels for moderate- and low-income residents. But the report also contained some useful information on market-wide levels of affordability. 

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The figure below, from that report, shows affordability at the census-tract level in the Twin Cities, for a household earning 50% of the area median income ($71,500 for a family of four, $50,000 for a household with two adults). 

This map confirms that Minneapolis and St. Paul are quite affordable. In both cities, the majority of neighborhoods have lots of housing available for moderate-income households. 

Yet both cities have areas where affordability declines. In St. Paul’s Macalester-Groveland and Como neighborhoods, and much of the south and southwest of Minneapolis, relatively little housing is affordable to a household at 50% of the Area Median Income (AMI). This means that a family of four earning $62,450 would be hard-pressed to find housing in these areas without spending more than a third of their income on housing costs.

Furthermore, affordability in the Twin Cities suburbs almost immediately tends to fall to very low levels (although some suburbs, including Brooklyn Center and West St. Paul, have relatively more housing that’s affordable). 

Where You Can (and Can’t) Build Housing

These spatial patterns of housing affordability aren’t coincidental.

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For example, the areas around Minneapolis’ chain of lakes — Lake of the Isles, Bde Maka Ska, Lake Harriet, Brownie Lake and Cedar Lake — have long been some of the most expensive and exclusive neighborhoods of the city. Parts of this area in Minneapolis, and some of the suburbs immediately bordering Minneapolis and St. Paul, had concentrations of racial covenants in the first half of the 20th century, restricting the race of potential homebuyers. These covenants have led to persistent long-term gaps in housing costs and quality, as well as the racial makeup, across neighborhoods. 

Soon after a Supreme Court case made these covenants unenforceable in 1948, many of the Twin Cities’ suburbs boomed as new freeways allowed residents (who were higher income, better educated and more likely to be white) to move out of the core city into more expensive enclaves. 

Today, zoning and land use regulations frequently restrict housing development in these areas, helping keep them expensive and beyond reach for many.

For example, look at Minneapolis’ built form rules, which govern the size of housing that can be built across the city. These rules were adapted as part of the city’s Minneapolis 2040 Comprehensive Plan. 

A map shows the city of Minneapolis'

Areas with any type of “Interior” zoning limit the density to duplexes and triplexes — but these are mostly unfeasible to build due to a combination of regulatory and financial barriers, meaning that these areas remain mostly single-family homes. These built-form rules cover the majority of residential land in Minneapolis’ expensive South and Southwest sides.

The arterial streets in these areas, labeled as “Corridor” zones, have more successfully allowed denser housing, but not enough has been built to change the affordability landscape of these areas. Keep in mind, too, that moderate zoning changes can’t quickly undo many decades of exclusionary policy in a neighborhood.

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In the suburbs, such rules are considerably more restrictive, and they help ensure that much of the area outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul remains exclusive — both inner-ring suburbs and jurisdictions further out. For example, as journalists MaryJo Webster and Michael Corey have documented, huge majorities of suburban residential land allow only single-family housing, while only relatively tiny patches of land allow for multifamily housing (note that this map is a couple years out of date, although the broad zoning landscape hasn’t changed much).

A map of residential zoning in the Twin Cities.

Both the origins and the implications of these rules tie closely to race and class. You can find the following sentence printed in an April 1975 edition of the St. Paul Reporter, St. Paul’s longstanding Black-run newspaper (today a part of the Minnesota Spokesman-Recorder). 

“Restrictive zoning plays a major role in keeping blacks out of the suburbs. They permit whites, who generally are better off financially, to practice a kind of social and economic discrimination that clearly is un-American.” 

These words ring true today.

Last April, I reported for the Minnesota Reformer on a rejected affordable housing project in Edina. The city’s mechanism for blocking this project was its zoning code. Although the development was aligned with Edina’s long-term comprehensive plan, which called for multifamily housing in this location, the city had not changed its actual zoning to allow for larger apartments. This gave Edina the leeway to stall the development, with full awareness that the developer would lose its affordable housing tax credits as a result. 

The resulting exclusion has been documented more systematically, too, playing out on a scale larger than any single housing development. As Webster, the journalist, documented in further research with housing economist Salim Furth, places in the Twin Cities zoned for single-family housing typically have much larger proportions of white residents. Additional research on minimum lot sizes, another exclusionary and costly housing regulation in many Twin Cities jurisdictions, has shown sharp socioeconomic divisions driven by these rules. Today, many different kinds of restrictive suburban zoning policies uphold unequal patterns across economic and racial lines. 

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Looking Ahead

Minneapolis deserves credit for its successful efforts to increase housing supply through land use reforms. Any fair assessment of the city’s affordability would acknowledge that the city’s rents are quite low, as average housing costs are within reach for many people with moderate incomes.

At the same time, we shouldn’t let numbers that are pretty impressive on average obscure meaningful variation across neighborhoods. Certain areas of Minneapolis are not within reach for many of the city’s residents. Furthermore, Minneapolis’ affordability does not extend to its wealthier suburbs. 

These patterns have to do with longstanding historical patterns of racial and economic segregation. Restrictive land use policy is one of the primary tools upholding these historical patterns today, driving up average housing costs and giving cities a tool to control the development of subsidized affordable housing.

Reforming these rules to allow for more housing throughout the Twin Cities is the subject of a years-long effort in the Minnesota Legislature. Proposed changes include a variety of ways to allow more density in municipalities throughout the state and to reduce the scope for cities to make discretionary rejections of proposed housing developments. 

Some local governments, spearheaded by the League of Minnesota Cities, are strongly opposed to these changes. But every jurisdiction in the Twin Cities has a contribution to make when it comes to building more housing — both subsidized housing and lower-cost market-rate housing. Residents can’t afford to wait.

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Warriors finish ‘surreal’ stay in Minneapolis: ‘Looks like a witch hunt out there’

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Warriors finish ‘surreal’ stay in Minneapolis: ‘Looks like a witch hunt out there’


MINNEAPOLIS – Sitting in front of a microphone deep inside Target Center on Monday night, Quinten Post chose his words carefully after the Warriors’ 108-83 loss. 

Post was not offering up his thoughts on scoring against Rudy Gobert or the team’s 19 turnovers. 

No, for the past four days, he and the team had taken up residence in Minneapolis, the epicenter of America’s war on immigration. 

Post and his teammates had watched tens of thousands of protesters march down the street in sub-zero temperatures in front of their downtown Minneapolis team hotel shortly after Golden State arrived on Friday afternoon. 

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He was stuck in the hotel on Saturday when news broke that the game was postponed after federal immigration agents shot and killed Alex Pretti, and played in Sunday’s contest that was coated in a thick pall. 

As a Dutch citizen, he did not want to pretend to be an expert on American legal policy. 

But as a person, his feelings were clear after what he called “a crazy” few days in Minnesota. 

“I’m not educated enough on the subject to say something truly smart about it, but some of the things that I see, from a human standpoint, are unacceptable,” Post said. “It looks like a witch hunt out there.”

Warriors coach Steve Kerr spoke at length the day before about the prolonged occupation of Minneapolis by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, calling for less division and expressing support for the city during what he dubbed a “surreal” series of events. 

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When given a chance to expand on his initial thoughts, Kerr did just that after Monday’s game. Like many Americans, he had read about 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos being detained by immigration personnel while at school. 

“It’s not like we’re rooting out violent criminals,” Kerr said. “They’re taking 5-year-old kindergartners and US citizens and detaining people. Immigration is a problem that needs to be addressed, but it needs to be addressed by Congress, legislatively, not by a military force in the streets pulling people from their homes.” 

Pretti’s death had rocked the Minneapolis community, and what multiple players and coaches described as the city’s “weight” hung over Sunday’s game. 

Multiple anti-ICE chants and iconography were encountered throughout the game, by both fans and at least two members of the in-venue entertainment team.



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Memorial ride for Alex Pretti planned by Minneapolis bike shop

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Memorial ride for Alex Pretti planned by Minneapolis bike shop


Organizers say the purpose of this weekend’s memorial ride is to mourn the death of Alex Pretti at the hands of U.S. Border Patrol agents and to celebrate his life.

‘An advocate for getting people to ride bicycles’

What we know:

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Alex Pretti was an avid outdoorsman who loved mountain biking and was a customer at Angry Catfish Bicycle Shop in South Minneapolis.

Now the community Pretti rolled with in group rides around the Twin Cities is ready to roll for him.

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“Alex is a cyclist, and if you’re a cyclist, you’re part of this community,” said Jerrod Alder, “director of stoke” at Angry Catfish.

‘In this together’

The backstory:

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Angry Catfish is helping organize a 10-mile bike ride in Pretti’s honor this Saturday with stops at Pretti’s memorial at 26th and Lyndale and Renee Good’s memorial at 34th and Portland avenue, before ending with a moment of silence at the Minneapolis VA hospital where Pretti worked as an ICU nurse.

“I think someone that is that cheerful and loving and has touched so many people needs to be honored,” said Alder.

Organizers say the cycling community has many spokes, and similar memorial rides are being planned in more than a half dozen other cities around the country, including New York, Boston and Atlanta, with more possibly on the way, both to mourn Pretti and to show solidarity with his mission of getting ICE out of Minnesota.

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“Folks have asked how many people do you anticipate showing up? And I think it’s between 50 and 1,000 people. Minnesota shows up no matter the weather,” said Alder.

‘A respectful human being’

What they’re saying:

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Organizers say there’s no better way to mourn the loss of someone who was so caring than to do something he loved.

“Bicycles are magic. We think it’s important in this moment to share that magic with the world,” said Alder.

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Dig deeper:

Organizers say the memorial ride for Alex Pretti will meet at Washburn Fair Oaks Park, across the street from the Minneapolis Institute Of Arts, at 1 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 31.

The ride will begin at 1:30 p.m.

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Minneapolis court considers whether Trump’s deployment of ICE agents violates constitution

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Minneapolis court considers whether Trump’s deployment of ICE agents violates constitution


A federal court in Minneapolis is hearing arguments on Monday on whether the Trump administration’s deployment of 3,000 immigration agents to Minnesota has crossed the line from law enforcement into unconstitutional occupation.

The extraordinary legal question centers on the 10th amendment, which reserves to the states all powers not explicitly granted to the federal government in the constitution. Lawyers for Minnesota and the cities of Minneapolis and St Paul claim in their suit that Operation Metro Surge has become so intrusive and dangerous that it amounts to an illegal occupation of the state.

They are asking Kate Menendez, a Biden-appointed US district judge, to immediately halt the operation, which they say has terrified residents, put public safety at risk and made it nearly impossible for local officials to do their jobs, from policing neighborhoods to keeping schools running normally.

The case, which was filed after the fatal shooting of Renee Good, has taken on new urgency following Saturday’s fatal shooting of Alex Pretti, a Minneapolis nurse and US citizen who was killed by federal agents while apparently filming an immigration operation. Videos verified by the Guardian contradict portions of the department of homeland security’s account of the incident.

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Pretti’s death marks the third shooting involving federal agents this month.

Monday’s hearing began with state lawyer Lindsey Middlecamp demanding an immediate end to what she called an “unlawful and unchecked invasion” by federal agents, according to reporters in the court room. She cited the Pretti killing and described Operation Metro Surge as violent by design, relying on shows of force and aggressive racial profiling. She also alleged retaliation against critics, saying businesses who spoke out have faced audits and some protesters have had their global entry status revoked.

Much of the hearing, according to reporters, has focused on a letter from attorney general Pam Bondi, which the state characterizes as an extortion attempt that violates the 10th amendment. Minnesota’s lawyers argue the Trump administration is using Operation Metro Surge to force policy changes rather than letting courts resolve disputes. “They are not letting the courts work this stuff out,” the state said. “What they’re trying to get in court … they’re trying to get that same thing by putting 3,000 heavily armed agents on the streets of Minnesota.”

The Bondi letter explicitly linked ending the surge to three demands: access to voter registration records, welfare program data, and the repeal of sanctuary policies, none of which the state argues have anything to do with immigration enforcement. Bondi’s first demand to halt the operation asked the state to hand over Snap data, which Minnesota’s lawyers say makes clear the federal government is using the presence of armed agents to coerce compliance on unrelated matters.

Menendez expressed difficulty drawing the line between legitimate federal pressure and illegal coercion. “What helps me decide when this very rarely used doctrine gives me the power to kick ICE out of the state?” she said.

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The state’s lawsuit argues the surge is motivated by a “desire to punish political opponents and score partisan points” rather than legitimate enforcement needs. It does not seek an end to all immigration enforcement in Minnesota, but asks for a return to pre-surge staffing levels and restrictions on how remaining agents operate.

Trump administration lawyers have dismissed the claims as lacking “a shred of legal support”. They describe the operation as lawful enforcement of immigration laws that has resulted in arrests of people convicted of serious crimes. “President Trump campaigned and won election on a promise to enforce immigration laws enacted by Congress,” government lawyers wrote. “For the last year, DHS has delivered on that promise.”

Legally speaking, it’s largely uncharted territory. Menendez has noted there is limited precedent for a state challenging federal law enforcement on 10th amendment grounds, though Illinois has filed a similar lawsuit seeking to block immigration enforcement without express congressional authorization.

In a letter filed hours after Saturday’s shooting, state and city lawyers wrote that “the situation is grave” and urged the judge to act.

“This cannot continue. We need the court to act to stop this surge before yet another resident dies because of Operation Metro Surge.”

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