How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Saturday, 2/22/25

Tip-Off Time: 1:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Streaming: Foxsportsgo.com

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Iowa City, IA

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +7

Iowa Hawkeyes 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 14-12 (5-10)

Points For per Game: 83.9 ppg (7nd)

Points Against per Game: 79.5 ppg (334th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.9 (28th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (154th)

Strength of Schedule: 45th

Iowa Key Players:

G- Brock Harding, So. 6’0, 165: 8.6 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 5.5 apg, 43.7% FG, 36.4% 3pt, 76.3% FT

Harding is a poor man’s Braden Smith. They’re basically the same size. Harding is 4th in B1G play compared to Smith’s 1st. Their steal rate and 3-pt percentage for the season are close to identical with Harding coming in a little worse. The big differences are that Harding’s numbers have dropped off since hitting conference season and he doesn’t take nearly as many shots as Smith. Still, he’s a good pass-first point guard and can make you pay from deep if you leave him alone.

G- Josh Dix, Jr. 6’6, 210: 14.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.8 apg, 52.1% FG, 42.7% 3pt, 78.9% FT

Every team would love to have a shooter like Dix. He has made at least 40% of his outside shots every year of his career and is at 44% in B1G play despite going 5/17 over their past 3 games. He doesn’t do the little stuff as his defensive numbers are lacking but he also doesn’t turn the ball over and doesn’t commit fouls so he’s a clear net positive with his offensive contributions.

F- Pryce Sandfort, So. 6’7, 210: 8.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 47.3% FG, 38.1% 3pt, 60.6% FT

Pryce is the younger of the Sandfort brothers but is essentially the 6th man for this Iowa squad, finishing games but not getting the start. His shooting splits are very similar to Josh Dix above except Pryce takes way more 3-pointers than 2-pointers which lowers his overall field goal percentage but both are over 60% in effective field goal percentage.

F- Payton Sandfort, Sr. 6’8, 215: 16.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 41.0% FG, 34.8% 3pt, 87.5% FT

Sandfort the elder, Payton, is the star of the team although his numbers have basically plateaued from last year. His 3-point shooting has dipped below 35% this season but he is an elite free throw shooter at 91% in conference play. The majority of his shots come from 3 so he is more of a pure shooter than a driver but he can still do both at 6’8 and should be an intriguing matchup for Osobor/Harris.

C- Ladji Dembele, So. 6’8, 255: 4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.2 bpg, 46.2% FG, 39.2% 3pt, 61.5% FT

Dembele has taken over the starting center role after an injury to Owen Freeman. Iowa will mix a few different players in at this spot but Dembele has gotten the starts recently. He’s almost a non-entity as a shot blocker and defensive rebounder but does well on the offensive glass and can space the floor.

The Outlook

Iowa hasn’t finished outside the top-60 at KenPom or won fewer than 19 games since 2018 but they’re in serious danger of doing both right now at 14-12 and 66th in the rankings. It didn’t help that they lost star center Owen Freeman for the season due to a finger injury a few weeks ago. Freeman was averaging 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game for Iowa and they are just 1-4 since he went down.

His rim protection was sorely needed because Iowa is one of the most all-offense, no-defense teams in the country. You have to respect it though when a team has a clear identity even if it presents plenty of problems. They are either fantastic or awful in just about every major statistical category.

Iowa loves to race up and down the floor and are content to try to outscore you in a shootout. The offense is absolutely dynamite. They rank 11th in average possession length so they push the ball as quickly as possible. Yet they rank top-30 nationally in 2-point %, 3-point %, and turnover % on offense. So they go quickly, they make shots from everywhere on the floor, and they don’t turn the ball over. That’s generally a pretty good combination.

The offense still isn’t perfect though. Almost everyone on the team is a good shooter but they rely almost entirely on jump shots. The Hawkeyes rank 343rd in free throw rate and also somehow aren’t very good when they do get to the line at 69.3% (272nd nationally). If Iowa’s 3-point shot isn’t falling on any given night then they probably aren’t going to win.

That’s in part because the defense is often a sieve. Iowa will often run a full-court press off of makes which is something UW traditionally hasn’t handled very well. They need to try something though because conventional defense doesn’t work for Iowa. Opponents shoot 56% on 2-point shots against Iowa which is 340th nationally. The Hawkeyes have the worst defense in B1G conference play and it isn’t remotely close, finishing 18th in opponent 2-pt%, 3-pt %, and defensive rebounding rate. Teams make all their shots against Iowa and if they don’t make the shot somehow then they usually get the rebound.

The only reason Iowa’s defense is semi-functional is that somehow they never commit fouls. Iowa is 356th in free throws on offense and 357th on defense. Refs just never call fouls during any of their games. Against Oregon on Thursday night, Iowa had their first foul of the half called against them with 4 minutes left in the game and their head coach reacted like he’d been told his family was being evicted.

That presents an interesting contrast for Washington. The Huskies just lost versus Rutgers in part because of a very one-sided whistle (click the link for a fact-based display of that). Washington had both Great Osobor and Franck Kepnang unavailable for long stretches due to foul trouble and had both Osobor and Mason foul out. That shouldn’t happen against Iowa but Osobor likely is not going to be able to draw fouls to bail him out if he gets into trouble.

I called Rutgers a must-win for Washington’s chances of making the Big Ten tournament. It wasn’t quite a must-win but the odds went down dramatically. This one though drops the odds down to low single-digits if the Huskies can’t pull off the road upset.

Washington is currently one game below Iowa in the conference standings at 17th (Iowa is 15th). Only the top-15 teams qualify. A win here puts the Huskies tied with Iowa and in possession of the tiebreaker. The Hawkeyes will be underdogs in all their remaining games including 3 on the road plus a home game against Michigan State. Washington is also a projected underdog in the rest of their games but at least has multiple home games against middle-of-the-pack B1G teams.

The most realistic scenario for UW squeaking in is this:

-UW beats Iowa on the road and then Indiana at home to finish 6-14.

-Iowa’s only remaining win comes at Northwestern to finish 6-14 (losses at Illinois, at NW, at Nebraska, vs. Michigan St).

-Northwestern’s only remaining win comes at Minnesota to finish 6-14 (losses vs. Iowa, vs. UCLA, at Maryland)

-Penn State goes no better than 2-2 down the stretch to finish 6-14 or worse (losses vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin)

That would put Washington in a tie for 15th place against only teams they’ve beaten. A loss to Iowa puts them further behind and eliminates a tiebreaker win.

The Huskies have won every other game for the last month. That pattern would suggest a win. Washington managed to squeak out last second finishes against Minnesota and Penn State on the road before doing the opposite in Hec Ed against Rutgers. I just don’t think UW will be able to run with Iowa heading out on the road following the OT let down on Wednesday night.

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 72, Iowa Hawkeyes- 80