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Mellman: Iowa, New Hampshire and the GOP nomination  

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Mellman: Iowa, New Hampshire and the GOP nomination  


Democrats expended appreciable power and energy rejiggering their presidential major and caucus schedule, even if, assuming President Biden runs, he’ll probably have his celebration’s nomination sewn up lengthy earlier than ballots are forged in Democrats’ new early states: South Carolina and Nevada.  

In contrast, Republicans are prone to have a fairly aggressive nominating course of by which Iowa and New Hampshire will probably be first once more — and, due to that, these states will probably be critically vital in checking out the winner.   

Questioning the affect of those early states in selecting nominees has turn out to be commonplace, with the winners in Iowa and in New Hampshire every occurring to seize their celebration’s nomination solely about half the time.  

However this evaluation misses the super joint energy of those two early states.  

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The easy truth is, since 1976, when proliferating primaries and caucuses turned the chief mechanism for choosing conference delegates, each nominee however two, in each events, gained both Iowa or New Hampshire.   

This primary exception, in 1992, resulted from the candidacy of Iowa favourite son Sen. Tom Harkin, rendering the Democratic caucuses moot, whereas former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas’s victory in neighboring New Hampshire, together with Invoice Clinton’s comeback second-place end, left the competition unresolved.  

President Biden supplies the second exception. Tick-tight ends in each early states and technical failures in Iowa created uncertainty whereas the COVID-19 pandemic unfold, wreaking havoc with elections. Biden overwhelmingly gained the third state on the calendar, and the previous vp went on to seal his victory.  

However these two exceptions stay the one ones in almost half a century. The affect of the early states is neither magical nor mysterious: Victories in these states transfer votes elsewhere.  

In 1976, Jimmy Carter garnered 4 p.c of the Democratic major vote in nationwide polls earlier than profitable Iowa and New Hampshire. Inside three days of that second victory, he jumped 12 factors within the nationwide polls.  

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The impression for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was much more dramatic. On common, Kerry picked up about 20 factors nationally from his Iowa win, and one other 13 from New Hampshire.  

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) didn’t choose up many votes after a disputed win in Iowa and a transparent victory in New Hampshire, one in every of his house states. However former Home Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who led most polls earlier than Iowa and New Hampshire, noticed his vote minimize nearly in half in nationwide surveys after shedding each states.   

Barack Obama picked up about 6 factors after profitable Iowa and shedding New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton, whereas Donald Trump made related nationwide good points after shedding Iowa after which profitable New Hampshire.  

George H.W. Bush didn’t name it the “huge mo’ ” for nothing; his personal assist doubled nationally after he narrowly defeated Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980, although Reagan went on to garner an enormous New Hampshire victory and the nomination.  

Bush’s huge mo’ rests firmly on two Vs: visibility and viability, which each entice marketing campaign money.   

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Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire account for about half the press protection of all the major season, with the winners vacuuming up the lion’s share.   

Furthermore, the winner’s protection is usually constructive. That intense burst of constructive publicity fuels the rise of candidates, whereas those that fail to partake of the victor’s spoils not often catch up.   

Assessments of candidates’ viability matter as nicely. Most individuals (although not all) need to assist a candidate they imagine has some likelihood of profitable. Early victories present incontrovertible proof {that a} candidate can win.   

Losses elevate questions on viability — questions bolstered by reporters who ask losers each day once they intend to drop out. And donors, small and enormous, flood winners with money as losers’ financial institution accounts dwindle.  

So, as we peer forward to 2024, what do polls in Iowa and New Hampshire inform us concerning the race for the Republican nomination?  

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It’s truthful to low cost this information — loads of eventual winners had been nowhere within the early states at this very early level. However, proper now, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) dominate each states. Others barely register. Even common New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is mired in single digits in his personal state.    

As between Trump and DeSantis, the story is complicated and contradictory, although most polls present DeSantis falling lately.  If one other Republican desires an opportunity of wresting the nomination from the 2 front-runners, they’d higher purchase a heat coat and transfer to the early states.  

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of Home members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Affiliation of Political Consultants, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.    

Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This materials will not be printed, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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Iowa

Iowa QB McNamara clarifies rumors about status

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Iowa QB McNamara clarifies rumors about status


Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara said he didn’t travel to Saturday’s game at Maryland after not being fully cleared from a concussion sustained last month.

McNamara on Friday went to X to respond to what he called “ridiculous accusations” about his status with the team. The senior said he remains “a proud member of this football team.”

McNamara last played Oct. 26 against Northwestern, when he sustained the concussion. Brendan Sullivan stepped in and started Iowa’s next few games, but an ankle injury has sidelined him for the Maryland matchup. Sources told ESPN that Sullivan likely will not return until Iowa’s bowl game. Jackson Stratton, a walk-on who transferred to Iowa from Colorado State, will start against Maryland.

Iowa listed McNamara as the starter on its Monday depth chart, and he said he had been cleared to practice Sunday but “had an adverse reaction, which is common for someone coming out of [concussion] protocol.” He said he did not participate in practice Monday and for the rest of the week, and continues to work with team doctors and a concussion specialist.

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Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz said Tuesday that McNamara’s status was “cloudy,” but that the quarterback had been cleared to play.

“Whether or not he can play effectively or not, we’ll see,” Ferentz said.

Ferentz said on his radio show Wednesday that Stratton was in line to make his first start.

“He’ll get the start,” Ferentz said. “Confident that he’ll do a great job. He stepped in, did a really nice job in our last ballgame, and he’s got a good ability to throw the football, and he’s learning every day.”

Stratton completed 3 of 6 passes for 28 yards in Iowa’s loss against UCLA on Nov. 8. He appeared in four games for Colorado State in 2022 and none last season.

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McNamara, a transfer from Michigan who helped the Wolverines to the 2021 Big Ten title, has opened the past two seasons as Iowa’s starter. He sustained an ACL tear in September 2023 that cost him the rest of the season. McNamara has 1,022 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions at Iowa.

He wrote on X that he intends to play in Iowa’s regular-season finale Nov. 29 at home against Nebraska.



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Pick ‘Ems: Iowa-Maryland, Iowa State-Utah, Indiana-Ohio State

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Pick ‘Ems: Iowa-Maryland, Iowa State-Utah, Indiana-Ohio State


There is a 4-way tie atop our season standings between John Steppe, Jeff Johnson, Rob Gray and Beth Malicki

Indiana celebrates after defeating Michigan in an NCAA college football game in Bloomington, Ind., Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
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The Gazette offers audio versions of articles using Instaread. Some words may be mispronounced.

The Gazette’s Pick ‘Ems for Week 13 of the college football season including long road trips for Iowa and Iowa State and the top-five showdown between Indiana and Ohio State.

Iowa (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) at Maryland (4-6, 1-6)

11 a.m. Saturday (BTN)

Line: Iowa -6.5

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Mike Hlas (2-1, 24-12) — Iowa’s No. 3 quarterback for this game is a Maryland blue crab. Iowa 24, Maryland 14

John Steppe (2-1, 26-10) — My editors are excited for a deadline-friendly 11 a.m. start. I’m just excited to use Washington’s outstanding Metro system. Iowa 20, Maryland 13

Jeff Johnson (3-0, 26-10) — Hey, Coach Ferentz. I’ve got some eligibility remaining if you need a quarterback. I specialize in the Tush Push. Maryland 21, Iowa 17

Rob Gray (3-0, 26-10) — Can the return of Cade McNamara save the Hawkeyes’ season? Maybe. But can the “clouds” settle and put Jackson Stratton into the starting spot? It appears possible. Iowa 14, Maryland 10

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Beth Malicki (3-0, 26-10) — I’m hosting Thanksgiving and don’t want anyone to bring their own darn food. This isn’t a potluck. This is my chance to show off and stress out. Iowa 20, Maryland 17

Todd Brommelkamp (3-0, 25-11) — Maryland has a single B1G win (by just one point) and gives up almost 30 points a game yet somehow Iowa’s final road trip of the year has become very unnerving. Iowa 28, Maryland 19

No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) at Utah (4-6, 1-6)

6:30 p.m. Saturday (Fox)

Line: Iowa State -7.5

Hlas — Once I was in a bar in the old Denver airport waiting to catch a flight to Salt Lake City. Someone dropped a quarter in a jukebox and played a Hall and Oates record. At that moment, the most amazing thing happened to all of us there. (Continued on Page 13C). Utah 21, Iowa State 20

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Steppe — Utah has more national parks than college football wins this year. Iowa State 23, Utah 20

Johnson — “Is it possible the two Utes …” “The two what?” “What?” “Did you say two Utes?” “Yeah, two Utes.” “What is a Ute?” “Oh, excuse me, your honor. Two youths.” Iowa State 28, Utah 10

Gray — If the Cyclones can stop the run, a path to 9-2 swiftly materializes. If they can’t, this is a four-quarter game. Iowa State 27, Utah 17

Malicki — Why am I wearing a splint on each wrist when I sleep? Self-induced carpal tunnel from robust cleaning. Iowa State 31, Utah 24

Brommelkamp — Utah’s controversial loss in the Holy War two weeks ago was the final straw in a lost season for Kyle Whittingham’s team. Make it seven straight setbacks for the Utes. Iowa State 25, Utah 21

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No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)

11 a.m. Saturday (Fox)

Line: Ohio State -12

Hlas — This is the biggest Indiana football game of our lives, then we have turkey dinner five days later. So delay that move to New Zealand for another week. Ohio State 35, Indiana 28

Steppe — My mother is an Indiana grad. I hope she does her Christmas shopping for me before reading this pick. Ohio State 41, Indiana 31

Johnson — Indiana is a great story, but let’s get real. Hoosiers have played exactly ONE team with a winning record, and that’s Washington, which is a mere 6-5. Ohio State 31, Indiana 14

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Gray — Heck, let’s blow it all up. Bluebloods be damned. Er, wait. On second thought … Ohio State 27, Indiana 14

Malicki — I cannot wait for all three of my adult kids to come home so I can be so overwhelmed with delight I can’t sleep so in all the pictures I have “crazy eyes.” Ohio State 34, Indiana 23

Brommelkamp — It’s clear ESPN and the CFP aren’t fans of Curt Cignetti’s upstarts. I am. The Hoosiers will (hopefully) make this a game and prove their many doubters wrong. Ohio State 31, Indiana 24





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Decatur County duo arrested after alleged robbery in Iowa Wednesday, police say

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Decatur County duo arrested after alleged robbery in Iowa Wednesday, police say


WEST DES MOINES, Ia. (WCTV) – Two people from Decatur County were arrested in Iowa Wednesday, and face charges related to an alleged robbery, according to a press release from the West Des Moines Police Department.

Daniel Mathes of Bainbridge is charged with robbery in the second degree and theft in the first degree. Lisa Haire of Climax is charged with aiding and abetting robbery in the second degree and aiding and abetting theft in the first degree.

Daniel Mathes and Lisa Haire, pictured above in their mugshots.(West Des Moines Police Department)

Late Wednesday afternoon, police responded to a call of a robbery at a bank, according to authorities. No one was injured, and police determined Mathes and Haire suspects related to the incident, police say.

They were later pulled over by Iowa State Patrol on I-80, and arrested without incident, according to authorities.

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