Iowa

Mellman: Iowa, New Hampshire and the GOP nomination

Published

1 year ago

March 29, 2023

Mellman: Iowa, New Hampshire and the GOP nomination

Democrats expended appreciable power and energy rejiggering their presidential major and caucus schedule, even if, assuming President Biden runs, he’ll probably have his celebration’s nomination sewn up lengthy earlier than ballots are forged in Democrats’ new early states: South Carolina and Nevada.

In contrast, Republicans are prone to have a fairly aggressive nominating course of by which Iowa and New Hampshire will probably be first once more — and, due to that, these states will probably be critically vital in checking out the winner.

Questioning the affect of those early states in selecting nominees has turn out to be commonplace, with the winners in Iowa and in New Hampshire every occurring to seize their celebration’s nomination solely about half the time.

However this evaluation misses the super joint energy of those two early states.

The easy truth is, since 1976, when proliferating primaries and caucuses turned the chief mechanism for choosing conference delegates, each nominee however two, in each events, gained both Iowa or New Hampshire.

This primary exception, in 1992, resulted from the candidacy of Iowa favourite son Sen. Tom Harkin, rendering the Democratic caucuses moot, whereas former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas’s victory in neighboring New Hampshire, together with Invoice Clinton’s comeback second-place end, left the competition unresolved.

President Biden supplies the second exception. Tick-tight ends in each early states and technical failures in Iowa created uncertainty whereas the COVID-19 pandemic unfold, wreaking havoc with elections. Biden overwhelmingly gained the third state on the calendar, and the previous vp went on to seal his victory.

However these two exceptions stay the one ones in almost half a century. The affect of the early states is neither magical nor mysterious: Victories in these states transfer votes elsewhere.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter garnered 4 p.c of the Democratic major vote in nationwide polls earlier than profitable Iowa and New Hampshire. Inside three days of that second victory, he jumped 12 factors within the nationwide polls.

The impression for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was much more dramatic. On common, Kerry picked up about 20 factors nationally from his Iowa win, and one other 13 from New Hampshire.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) didn’t choose up many votes after a disputed win in Iowa and a transparent victory in New Hampshire, one in every of his house states. However former Home Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who led most polls earlier than Iowa and New Hampshire, noticed his vote minimize nearly in half in nationwide surveys after shedding each states.

Barack Obama picked up about 6 factors after profitable Iowa and shedding New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton, whereas Donald Trump made related nationwide good points after shedding Iowa after which profitable New Hampshire.

George H.W. Bush didn’t name it the “huge mo’ ” for nothing; his personal assist doubled nationally after he narrowly defeated Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980, although Reagan went on to garner an enormous New Hampshire victory and the nomination.

Bush’s huge mo’ rests firmly on two Vs: visibility and viability, which each entice marketing campaign money.

Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire account for about half the press protection of all the major season, with the winners vacuuming up the lion’s share.

Furthermore, the winner’s protection is usually constructive. That intense burst of constructive publicity fuels the rise of candidates, whereas those that fail to partake of the victor’s spoils not often catch up.

Assessments of candidates’ viability matter as nicely. Most individuals (although not all) need to assist a candidate they imagine has some likelihood of profitable. Early victories present incontrovertible proof {that a} candidate can win.

Losses elevate questions on viability — questions bolstered by reporters who ask losers each day once they intend to drop out. And donors, small and enormous, flood winners with money as losers’ financial institution accounts dwindle.

So, as we peer forward to 2024, what do polls in Iowa and New Hampshire inform us concerning the race for the Republican nomination?

It’s truthful to low cost this information — loads of eventual winners had been nowhere within the early states at this very early level. However, proper now, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) dominate each states. Others barely register. Even common New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is mired in single digits in his personal state.

As between Trump and DeSantis, the story is complicated and contradictory, although most polls present DeSantis falling lately. If one other Republican desires an opportunity of wresting the nomination from the 2 front-runners, they’d higher purchase a heat coat and transfer to the early states.

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of Home members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Affiliation of Political Consultants, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.

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Iowa

Iowa DOT shuts down stretches of I-680, I-29 ahead of anticipated flooding

Published

7 hours ago

June 26, 2024

Press Room

Iowa DOT shuts down stretches of I-680, I-29 ahead of anticipated flooding

COUNCIL BLUFFS, IOWA. (WOWT) – After more than a day of anticipation, officials with the Iowa Department of Transportation confirmed to 6 on Your Side late Tuesday Night that it would be shutting down portions of Interstates 680 and 29 effective at midnight Wednesday.

The closures are due to to rising water on the Missouri River.

The affected stretch of I-29 is from the 25th Street interchange on the north edge of Council Bluffs to the I-29/I-880 interchange.

The I-680 stretch is from the Nebraska border to the I-29/I-680 interchange near Crescent.

A detour was set to be posted near Loveland to take traffic from the I-29/I-880 interchange east to the I-80/I-880 interchange, then southwest on I-80 into Council Bluffs.

Monday night, Iowa DOT’s Austin Yates told 6 News that there was anticipation that the interstate would reopen sometime during the weekend.

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Iowa

New testing required for dairy cattle participating in Iowa fairs

Published

14 hours ago

June 25, 2024

Press Room

New testing required for dairy cattle participating in Iowa fairs

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) – On Tuesday, the Iowa Secretary of Agriculture announced new testing requirements for dairy cattle participating in Iowa fairs and exhibitions.

Secretary Mike Naig announced the new requirements as a way to minimize the potential spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). HPAI (also known as Bird Flu) has hit numerous dairy cattle in the state. The Secretary says the state should expect to see new positive cases announced as the increased testing takes place.

“The Department is issuing a statewide order effective July 1 that will require additional tests for HPAI prior to dairy cattle participating at our state’s many fairs and exhibitions,” said Secretary Naig. “We want to strike a balance between allowing our 4-H, FFA, and dairy exhibitors the opportunity to show their animals, while also requiring additional testing to protect our livestock and minimize the potential spread of the virus,” said Secretary Naig.

To date, the state has reported 11 positive cases of HPAI within dairy herds in Iowa. 9 of those cases have been detected in Sioux County. Iowa has had three poultry cases thus far in 2024, including one case in a commercial chicken layer in Sioux County and two cases in commercial turkey flocks.

“Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza isn’t just a poultry issue or a dairy issue, it’s an issue for all of agriculture. Our approach is reflective of our significant livestock industry, and I want to thank our farmers who have stepped up to help contribute to the broader understanding, visibility and knowledge of this virus,” said Secretary Naig. “We should expect additional challenges ahead and as the situation continues to evolve, we will also continue to evaluate our response. We continue to support our farmers through the joint state and federal response team who are navigating this evolving and unpredictable situation.”

Suspected signs of HPAI in poultry include:

Sudden increase in bird deaths without any clinical signs
Lethargy and/or lack of energy and appetite
Decrease in egg production
Soft, thin-shelled and/or misshapen eggs
Swelling of the head, eyelids, comb, wattles, and hocks
Purple/blue discoloration of the wattles, comb, and legs
Difficulty breathing
Coughing, sneezing, and/or nasal discharge (runny nose)
Stumbling and/or falling down
Diarrhea

Suspected signs of HPAI in dairy cows include:

Decrease in food consumption with a simultaneous decrease in rumination
Clear nasal discharge
Drop in milk production
Tacky or loose feces
Lethargy
Dehydration
Fever
Thicker, concentrated, colostrum-like milk

Officials say that it is safe to enjoy poultry products. Consumers should utilize the proper handling and cooking of eggs and poultry products, including cooking to an internal temperature of 165˚F.

There is no concern about the safety of pasteurized milk or dairy products. Pasteurization has continually proven to successfully inactivate bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk.

If dairy producers suspect cases of HPAI, they should contact their herd veterinarian immediately. Possible cases must also be reported to the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship at (515) 281-5305.

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Iowa

2024 Eastern Iowa fireworks displays

Published

22 hours ago

June 25, 2024

Press Room

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa – Cities across Iowa are preparing to host annual Independence Day fireworks displays!

Here is a list of displays you can see in eastern Iowa this year:

Bettendorf

Parade at 10 a.m. on July 4 in downtown Bettendorf
4th of July Festival from noon to 10 p.m. on Spruce Hills Drive in front of Cumberland Square
Fireworks at Middle Park at dusk
More info

Cedar Falls

Fireworks Over the Dome at 9:40 p.m. on June 27

Cedar Rapids

Ellis Fireworks on the River at 9 p.m. on July 3 – more info
Cedar Rapids Freedom Festival – Celebration of Freedom Fireworks
Fireworks start at dark on July 4 in downtown Cedar Rapids
More info

Charles City

Fourth of July Celebration from July 3-6
Fourth of July Parade begins at 11 a.m. on July 4, then fireworks by the Cedar River in the evening
Main Street Charles City’s Party in the Park on July 5
July 6 – magician show, cornhole tournament
More info

Coralville

Coralville’s annual 4thFest parade at 10 a.m. on July 4, starting and ending at the corner of 9th Street and 22nd Avenue
Fireworks display in S.T. Morrison Park at dark, around 9:45 p.m.

Garnavillo