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Mellman: Iowa, New Hampshire and the GOP nomination  

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Mellman: Iowa, New Hampshire and the GOP nomination  


Democrats expended appreciable power and energy rejiggering their presidential major and caucus schedule, even if, assuming President Biden runs, he’ll probably have his celebration’s nomination sewn up lengthy earlier than ballots are forged in Democrats’ new early states: South Carolina and Nevada.  

In contrast, Republicans are prone to have a fairly aggressive nominating course of by which Iowa and New Hampshire will probably be first once more — and, due to that, these states will probably be critically vital in checking out the winner.   

Questioning the affect of those early states in selecting nominees has turn out to be commonplace, with the winners in Iowa and in New Hampshire every occurring to seize their celebration’s nomination solely about half the time.  

However this evaluation misses the super joint energy of those two early states.  

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The easy truth is, since 1976, when proliferating primaries and caucuses turned the chief mechanism for choosing conference delegates, each nominee however two, in each events, gained both Iowa or New Hampshire.   

This primary exception, in 1992, resulted from the candidacy of Iowa favourite son Sen. Tom Harkin, rendering the Democratic caucuses moot, whereas former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas’s victory in neighboring New Hampshire, together with Invoice Clinton’s comeback second-place end, left the competition unresolved.  

President Biden supplies the second exception. Tick-tight ends in each early states and technical failures in Iowa created uncertainty whereas the COVID-19 pandemic unfold, wreaking havoc with elections. Biden overwhelmingly gained the third state on the calendar, and the previous vp went on to seal his victory.  

However these two exceptions stay the one ones in almost half a century. The affect of the early states is neither magical nor mysterious: Victories in these states transfer votes elsewhere.  

In 1976, Jimmy Carter garnered 4 p.c of the Democratic major vote in nationwide polls earlier than profitable Iowa and New Hampshire. Inside three days of that second victory, he jumped 12 factors within the nationwide polls.  

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The impression for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was much more dramatic. On common, Kerry picked up about 20 factors nationally from his Iowa win, and one other 13 from New Hampshire.  

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) didn’t choose up many votes after a disputed win in Iowa and a transparent victory in New Hampshire, one in every of his house states. However former Home Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who led most polls earlier than Iowa and New Hampshire, noticed his vote minimize nearly in half in nationwide surveys after shedding each states.   

Barack Obama picked up about 6 factors after profitable Iowa and shedding New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton, whereas Donald Trump made related nationwide good points after shedding Iowa after which profitable New Hampshire.  

George H.W. Bush didn’t name it the “huge mo’ ” for nothing; his personal assist doubled nationally after he narrowly defeated Ronald Reagan in Iowa in 1980, although Reagan went on to garner an enormous New Hampshire victory and the nomination.  

Bush’s huge mo’ rests firmly on two Vs: visibility and viability, which each entice marketing campaign money.   

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Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire account for about half the press protection of all the major season, with the winners vacuuming up the lion’s share.   

Furthermore, the winner’s protection is usually constructive. That intense burst of constructive publicity fuels the rise of candidates, whereas those that fail to partake of the victor’s spoils not often catch up.   

Assessments of candidates’ viability matter as nicely. Most individuals (although not all) need to assist a candidate they imagine has some likelihood of profitable. Early victories present incontrovertible proof {that a} candidate can win.   

Losses elevate questions on viability — questions bolstered by reporters who ask losers each day once they intend to drop out. And donors, small and enormous, flood winners with money as losers’ financial institution accounts dwindle.  

So, as we peer forward to 2024, what do polls in Iowa and New Hampshire inform us concerning the race for the Republican nomination?  

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It’s truthful to low cost this information — loads of eventual winners had been nowhere within the early states at this very early level. However, proper now, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) dominate each states. Others barely register. Even common New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is mired in single digits in his personal state.    

As between Trump and DeSantis, the story is complicated and contradictory, although most polls present DeSantis falling lately.  If one other Republican desires an opportunity of wresting the nomination from the 2 front-runners, they’d higher purchase a heat coat and transfer to the early states.  

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of Home members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Affiliation of Political Consultants, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.    

Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This materials will not be printed, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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‘Stereophonic’ won Best Play at the Tony Awards. The playwright is a University of Iowa alum

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‘Stereophonic’ won Best Play at the Tony Awards. The playwright is a University of Iowa alum


A University of Iowa alum’s record-breaking play won several awards at the 77th annual Tony Awards Sunday night.

David Adjmi is the playwright behind the 13-time Tony-nominated play “Stereophonic.” It received the most nominations of any play in Tony history. It won five awards, including Best Play, when the Tonys aired on June 16 on CBS.

“This almost didn’t happen,” Adjmi said in his acceptance speech. “This play took me 11 years to manifest in a production and it wouldn’t have happened if it weren’t for Adam Greenfield and Playwrights Horizons, the off-Broadway theater that gave us a world-class production that we basically transferred to the Broadway stage.”

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Adjmi thanked his friends for both emotional and financial help, including for giving him a place to live for “seven years so that I could write this play.”

“It’s really hard to make a career in the arts,” Adjmi said. “We need to fund the arts in America. It is the hallmark of a civilized society.”

“Stereophonic” follows an up-and-coming rock band recording a new album “on the cusp of superstardom,” but whether that pressure breaks them up or inspires their breakthrough is left for audiences to discover, according to Playwrights Horizons.

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Adjmi attended the Iowa Playwrights Workshop from 1998 to 2001, University of Iowa public relations manager Steve Schmadeke said in an email to the Des Moines Register.

He wrote “Strange Attractors” during this time, which premiered at the Empty Space Theatre in Seattle, according to Playbill. He has also written “Marie Antoinette” and “The Evildoers.”

Adjmi was admitted to Juilliard’s American Playwrights Program, Schmadeke said, and other honors include being awarded a Mellon Foundation grant to a Guggenheim Fellowship, according to Adjmi’s website.

He authored a memoir, “Lot Six,” published in 2020.

What was David Adjmi’s time at the University of Iowa like?

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Art Borreca, co-head of the Iowa Playwrights Workshop, recalled some of Adjmi’s time at Iowa with the Register in a phone interview.

Borreca had started running the MFA playwriting program, and Adjmi was part of the very first class Borreca was responsible for admitting.

Borreca recalled reading the play Adjmi submitted for admission.

“The play that he submitted was really, really strong,” Borreca said. “It clearly had a strong sense of voice and sense of theater, and the application rose right to the top. So, we admitted him and recruited him a little bit. I remember that there was another program that very much wanted him, but he liked our program in particular, and ended up coming here.”

Borreca saw Adjmi’s first drafts as part of a course in the program, and his work was more advanced than what one would expect from a first draft, Borreca said.

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“On top of being very talented, he had a really strong academic background, was always very smart and very knowledgeable about the theater and about literature in general, and that came across both in the workshop and in the other classes,” Borreca said.

During the time Adjmi was enrolled in the Iowa Playwrights Workshop, work submitted to the New Play Festival had the chance to be selected for the main stage season the following year, Borreca explained.

One of Adjmi’s plays was selected for the main stage season, an “indication of how strong his work was,” Borreca said.

Adjmi’s success benefits the Iowa Playwrights Workshop by drawing in students who are considering where to apply, Borreca explained. It also affirms the “quality of the writers that come here,” he said.

Were there other Tony-winning shows with Iowa ties?

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Des Moines Performing Arts invested in five of the Tony-nominated shows as part of the Independent Presenters Network, a consortium of 40 Broadway presenters, theaters and performing arts centers, according to a news release from DMPA in April.

Those shows are “The Outsiders,” “Here Lies Live,” “The Notebook,” “Gutenberg! The Musical!” and “Monty Python’s Spamalot.”

“The Outsiders” won Best Musical at the Tonys. It also won for:

  • Best Direction of a Musical, Danya Taymor — “The Outsiders”
  • Best Lighting Design in a Musical, Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim — “The Outsiders”
  • Best Sound Design of a Musical, Cody Spencer — “The Outsiders”

Paris Barraza is a trending and general assignment reporter at the Des Moines Register. Reach her at pbarraza@registermedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @ParisBarraza.



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Ryan Blaney clinches playoff spot with victory in first NASCAR Cup Series race in Iowa – The Boston Globe

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Ryan Blaney clinches playoff spot with victory in first NASCAR Cup Series race in Iowa – The Boston Globe


NEWTON, Iowa — Ryan Blaney dominated the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race at Iowa Speedway on Sunday night for his first victory of the season and a spot in the playoffs.

Blaney led four times for a career-high 201 laps, finishing 0.716 seconds ahead of William Byron for his 11th Cup victory. The defending series champion came into the race 12th in the standings.

Blaney regained the lead on Lap 263 after taking just two tires on a caution-flag pit stop. He led the rest of the way, getting through lapped traffic as Byron tried to close.

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Blaney, whose mother, Lisa, is from Chariton, Iowa, won in front of a sellout crowd of an estimated 40,000 fans that included 80 of his friends and family.

It was fitting the first Cup Series race at the 0.875-mile track would go to a Team Penske driver — Penske cars have won seven IndyCar Series races and three NASCAR Xfinity Series races at the track.

Chase Elliott was third. Christopher Bell, who had to start from the back of the field in a backup car after crashing during practice Friday, was fourth. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who like Blaney took two tires on the final pit stop, finished fifth.

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Joey Logano finished sixth. Rookie Josh Berry, who led 32 laps, was seventh, followed by Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, and Brad Keselowski.

Kyle Larson, the series points leader and pole-sitter for the race, led 81 laps and won the second stage, but hit the wall on Lap 219 after contact from behind by Suarez. Larson had surged into the middle of a three-wide jam, with Suarez to his left and Keselowski to his right, when the contact happened. Larson finished 34th in the 36-car field.

Getting a Cup Series race was an accomplishment for the track, located 40 miles from Des Moines. The facility opened in 2006 and was on the schedules of NASCAR’s Xfinity Series and Truck Series from 2009-19. NASCAR has owned the track since 2013.





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Denny Hamlin has baffling start, falls a lap down early in Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway

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Denny Hamlin has baffling start, falls a lap down early in Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway


Despite starting P12 and running in the top-10 early at Iowa Speedway, Denny Hamlin and his No. 11 Toyota fell like a rock. The first five laps went well, but it has been downhill for the NASCAR driver since then.

Kyle Larson shot out from the field like a cannonball. He is by far the most dominant driver early on in this Iowa Speedway race. Denny Hamlin on the other hand went DOWN a lap after just 34 laps on the track.

Tires are the big story but it appears that Hamlin is having more than just tire troubles. Will the 11 team get things figured out?

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Between last week’s race at Sonoma and the start of this one, things have been falling off for Denny Hamlin and his team. Short tracks are usually a strength for Hamlin and his crew. But Iowa Speedway is a new track for him.

While other, younger drivers have raced at Iowa in the past, Hamlin has not. He was already a full-time Cup Series driver by the time Iowa Speedway was built. So no Xfinity, Truck, or ARCA starts for Hamlin at the facility.

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Could it be that his unfamiliarity with the track is to blame? I’m not so sure. Hamlin is a veteran and as I mentioned, short tracks are his thing. Unless the 11 crew can make adjustments, the day might be over before it starts for the second straight week.

Denny Hamlin needs to get it figured out

Up until the last two weeks, Denny Hamlin has looked like a true championship contender. As he continues to age, his opportunities are going to continue to vanish. Hamlin has three wins on the year, four if you include the Busch Light Clash. But he can’t afford these moments.

In a tightly contested fight for the regular season championship, and the 15 bonus playoff points that come with it, Hamlin is battling Larson. Every stage and every position matters when it comes to this race for the regular season title.

Then again, Larson is starting to look like he did in 2021. Remember his three straight wins during that summer? Well, it happened right around this time. With the pole award locked up and a strong first stage, Larson has back-to-back wins in mind right now.

Denny Hamlin has to get it figured out sooner rather than later. If the tires are such a big deal in this race, he might have a chance. Catch a few breaks, get into a groove, and try to pass.

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