Connect with us

Business

DeepSeek Prompts a Reckoning Across Wall Street and Silicon Valley

Published

on

DeepSeek Prompts a Reckoning Across Wall Street and Silicon Valley

Good morning on this action-packed Monday. Mark this week on your “History of Artificial Intelligence Timeline”: The creation of DeepSeek, the Chinese A.I. sensation that we told you about last week, is shaking the technology industry to its core.

The super-efficient, open-source software is raising questions about the valuations of tech giants, including the chip maker Nvidia, with their stocks getting crushed today. Has the entire industry been wildly overspending? It’s also raising profound questions about how China may have undercut America’s most critical economic advantage on A.I. by making its technology free. We have more on all of this below.

Plus: Wall Street should pay attention to comments President Trump made late Friday that have flown under the radar.

Markets are on edge on Monday, as global tech investors face a $1 trillion wipeout. The cause: anxiety that the emergence of powerful — and cheap — Chinese artificial intelligence software could upend the economics of A.I.

Nasdaq futures have plummeted nearly 4 percent. And shares in Nvidia, the chipmaker whose processors help train and run A.I. software, are down 11 percent in premarket trading. Those in Constellation Energy, a utility betting heavily on powering A.I. data centers, are down nearly 13 percent.

Advertisement

Meanwhile, tech executives and policymakers have been left to wonder how strong America’s lead in A.I. is.

DeepSeek is forcing a reckoning in Silicon Valley. The company’s models appear to rival those from OpenAI, Google and Meta, despite the U.S. government’s efforts to limit China’s access to leading-edge A.I. technology. And DeepSeek says it did all this with a fraction of the resources that American competitors use.

Over the weekend, DeepSeek shot to the top of Apple’s App Store charts, rivaling ChatGPT. And DeepSeek is drastically undercutting OpenAI on price.

That raises a number of questions:

  • Do leading A.I. companies like Google, Meta and the privately held OpenAI and Anthropic deserve their astronomical valuations?

  • Do companies need to spend hundreds of billions on vast data centers powered by hugely expensive chips from Nvidia and others? Consider that OpenAI and its partners have promised to spend at least $100 billion on their Stargate project, or that Microsoft said it will spend $80 billion, or Meta $65 billion.

  • Does America need the huge uptick in electricity generation that has fueled a run-up in utility stocks?

American tech companies are scrambling to respond. The Information reports that Meta has tasked several teams of engineers with closely examining DeepSeek to see how they can improve their company’s own Llama A.I. software.

Advertisement

Already, American A.I. providers are rushing to dissuade customers from switching to cheaper DeepSeek offerings. (One potential stumbling block for some is that DeepSeek, as a Chinese company, won’t answer questions on sensitive topics such as those involving China’s leader, Xi Jinping, though developers say that it’s easy to modify the software.)

Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s C.E.O., has a more positive take: More efficient and accessible A.I. might lead to a “Jevon’s paradox” moment: “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of,” he wrote on X.

What will policymakers do? President Trump and other Western leaders have been anxious to unveil steps to bolster their homegrown A.I. industries, both by helping them grow and imposing constraints on Chinese rivals. But DeepSeek suggests there are limits to that approach.

Expect tough questions from analysts this week, especially as four of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants, including Meta and Microsoft, report earnings this week.

Hearings for Trump cabinet picks and the Fed loom large this week. Senators are expected on Monday to approve Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary. On Wednesday, they will hold confirmation hearings for Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the candidate for health secretary. Also on Wednesday, it’s decision day for the Fed: Many on Wall Street expect the central bank, wary of inflation, will keep interest rates steady.

Advertisement

Bitcoin falls below $100,000 as the industry deals with a flood of memecoins. The sell-off coincides with the broad slump in tech stocks, and comes despite an executive order by Trump to bolster the sector. (Tokens tied to the president and the first lady, Melania Trump, have slumped sharply again, amid a wave of criticism.) Meanwhile, Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of Coinbase, who criticized regulations by the Biden administration, suggested that regulators should create a “block list” for new digital tokens as his company struggles to deal with the million new ones being created each week.

Trump says he’s making progress on a TikTok sale. The president said he was in talks with several potential buyers to take control of the video app as part of an arrangement with ByteDance, the platform’s Chinese owner, with a potential decision in the next 30 days.

President Trump’s jab at Brian Moynihan, Bank of America’s C.E.O., grabbed headlines at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, when he accused the executive of “debanking” his conservative supporters.

What many haven’t noticed that Trump has kept up his attack since then.

When the president visited Los Angeles on Friday for a round table on the California wildfires, he doubled down on his criticism of Bank of America. “They’re not nice. Sounds very nice, ‘The Bank of America.’ They are not nice,” he told someone in attendance. But he didn’t stop there, adding, “We’re doing numbers on banks.”

Advertisement

Trump’s issues have expanded beyond debanking. The conversation in Los Angeles was about the profit margin that banks often capture by charging a significantly higher interest rate on loans to consumers than the banks pay to borrow from the Fed.

Might he try to force banks to lower interest rates? Or could he make good on a campaign promise of capping credit card interest rates? (It’s not clear if he has the authority to do so via executive order.)

Trump’s relationship with banks is complicated. Few on Wall Street and finance are in Trump’s inner circle, especially compared with tech moguls (some of whom are trying to disrupt banking). Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, comes from the rough-and-tumble brokerage business than the polished worlds of investment banking and commercial lending.

By contrast, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase has a more nuanced relationship with the president. Though he privately supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, the JPMorgan chief has said that Trump wasn’t wrong on issues including taxes and immigration at last year’s Davos, and this year said he’d be on board with tariffs if they’re good for national security.

Also worth noting: One of Bank of America’s largest shareholders is Warren Buffett, who has clashed with Trump in the past. That said, Buffett didn’t weigh in on the election and has been selling down his Bank of America stake since before November.

Advertisement

Trump is taking shots at banks just as they were expecting a friendlier administration., The industry, whose members had been prevented from merging for years, was expecting a wave of consolidation under Trump.

But there have already been signs that banking won’t get what it wants. Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said in his confirmation hearing this month that the five largest banks had too much market share.


President Trump’s standoff with Colombia over immigration lasted just a few hours and played out mostly on social media.

But the fallout will likely reverberate among global leaders.

The latest: President Gustavo Petro of Colombia backed down from his refusal to accept American military planes carrying deportees into the South American country. His decision came after Trump threatened sanctions and tariffs — starting at 25 percent, and then climbing — on the country’s exports, including crude oil, coffee and cut flowers.

Advertisement

Petro’s U-turn gives the White House a victory on multiple fronts. Trump can show he’s living up to his campaign promise to crack down on illegal immigration.

And he can put other foreign capitals on notice that he will use tariffs to extract conditions that go beyond trade. “Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again,” the White House declared in a statement.

Allies won’t be spared. Colombia has long had close diplomatic ties to the United States — as do other targets of potential tariffs, Canada and Mexico. Some Trump aides want to proceed with tariffs on the latter on Feb. 1, talks or no talks, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Last week, the S&P 500 rallied in part on hopes that Trump’s recent tariff comments, especially about China, signaled a softer policy approach. Was that all a mirage?

And then there’s Greenland. Trump has coveted the autonomous Danish island for its strategic location in Arctic shipping and defense and for its mineral wealth, and has suggested he’d be willing to use military force or economic coercion to annex it.

Advertisement

On Air Force One this weekend, Trump told reporters that he could wrest control of Greenland from Denmark. “I think we’re going to have it. I think the people want to be with us,” he said, referring to Greenlanders.

Trump’s comments add to heightened tensions between Washington and NATO allies. “The Danes are saying, ‘Keep it down,’ but they’re scared,” Zaki Laïdi, an adviser to the former E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell Fontelles, told The Times.


The latest guessing game on the Washington-to-New York Acela is where former Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband, Douglas Emhoff, might go next. We know the answer to half of that question.

Emhoff will become a partner at the corporate law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher, splitting his time between Los Angeles and Manhattan. He starts on Monday, advising companies on crises including litigation and corporate investigations, DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch is first to report.

Emhoff spent decades as a corporate lawyer before moving to Washington. He co-founded a boutique law firm in 2000, which he sold to a rival, Venable, in 2006. He left Venable in 2017 for DLA Piper, and stepped away full-time in 2020, partly to avoid conflicts of interest entanglements once his wife became vice president.

Advertisement

His clients have included Spotify and Lionsgate. He’s also represented Willie Gault, the former Olympic sprinter and N.F.L. star, whom he represented in an S.E.C. fraud case.

Willkie will tap Emhoff’s experience from his legal career and the White House. The second gentleman has amassed a network of key figures in entertainment, private equity and the corporate world.

Emhoff was a visible presence during the presidential campaign, helping his wife raise more than $1 billion. He also represented the U.S. in a diplomatic capacity at events like the 2024 Olympics in Paris, and led the Biden administration’s efforts to combat antisemitism.

“That got him in touch with very important leaders across the globe,” Thomas Cerabino, a co-chairman at Willkie, told DealBook.

Deals

Advertisement

Politics and policy

Best of the rest

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

Business

Another tech company says it will cut hundreds of jobs amid pivot to AI

Published

on

Another tech company says it will cut hundreds of jobs amid pivot to AI

Layoffs have continued with another tech company saying it was cutting people to enable it to use more artificial intelligence.

Groupon announced in a security filing this month that it will cut up to 400 jobs, or nearly 25% of its worldwide workforce, as part of a broader restructuring plan to make the platform AI-native. The Chicago company plans to carry out the layoffs in the coming months.

Earlier the company’s Chief Executive Officer Dušan Šenkypl had said the company “fell short of our expectations” last quarter.

Since 2022, more than 800,000 tech workers have been laid off, according to Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks job cuts.

The surge in pink slips started in 2023, when companies that had gone on hiring sprees during the COVID-19 pandemic began to cut back. From January to April this year, U.S. tech employers announced 85,411 job cuts, up 33% from the same period last year, according to global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Advertisement

Groupon said in the filing that the decision to shift toward an AI-based company is to “better deliver on our mission, serving both customers and merchants.”

The company said the layoffs will cost it as much as $13 million, but save it more than $20 million per year.

This announcement comes as many e-commerce companies are shifting their business models to AI to reduce costs by automating many roles.

Artificial intelligence has also triggered fierce competition for top talent and is also fueling tens of thousands of layoffs this year. The result is that the class divide is widening in Silicon Valley as a tiny group of employees are landing unprecedented packages for AI skills, while many others struggle to find work.

The have-nots are doing everything that used to guarantee great jobs — refreshing resumes, optimizing LinkedIn profiles and doing interviews — but companies are much more picky these days. The tech jobless are rethinking their lives. Some are taking pay cuts, while others are leaving tech. Some are going back to study or launch startups. Some have retired.

Advertisement

Groupon shares, which have fallen 27% over the last 12 months, slipped 1% on Thursday to $21.20.

Continue Reading

Business

ABC files applications ‘under protest’ for early renewal of TV station licenses

Published

on

ABC files applications ‘under protest’ for early renewal of TV station licenses

Walt Disney Co.’s ABC has filed renewal applications with the Federal Communications Commission “under protest” after an order mandating a years-early review of the network’s eight television station licenses.

The criticism was part of the network’s applications for the FCC review, which were filed ahead of a deadline Thursday. In an objection to the early renewal, Disney’s New York station WABC called the FCC order “unlawful, arbitrary and unconstitutional” and said it was “legally indefensible.”

“The Commission had not demanded early renewal in over five decades,” the station wrote in its filing. “And it has never before demanded simultaneous license renewal applications from a group of stations commonly owned with a network as it has here. The order has no legitimate purpose.”

The licenses for the eight ABC-owned TV stations, including KABC in Los Angeles, were originally scheduled for renewal between 2028 and 2031.

Advertisement

The FCC order came shortly after ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel made a joke about First Lady Melania Trump looking like an “expectant widow” days before a gunman tried to breach the White House Correspondents’ Assn. gala last month that President Trump attended.

Trump has frequently threatened to have TV station licenses pulled when he is unhappy with their coverage, but the order is the first time the government has acted on his wishes, sparking anger from free speech advocates. The FCC has said the order is part of an investigation into whether Disney’s diversity and inclusion policies violate federal law and the agency’s rules against “unlawful discrimination.”

In its response, WABC said the “only plausible reason” to issue the order was to “punish the station for speech the government does not like.”

“The ultimate injury here is not to the station or its parent company. It is to the public,” WABC wrote. “When a broadcaster must weigh regulatory retaliation before making editorial decisions, the public loses access to journalism that is free from government influence.”

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said in a statement Thursday that Disney filed its applications to renew its broadcast licenses only after the company was told its previous answers were “disingenuous, deficient and improper.”

Advertisement

“Contrary to Disney’s claim that the FCC called in their broadcast licenses for early renewal for no reason, the record shows something very different,” Carr said. “Broadcast licensees have a unique obligation to operate in the public interest. The FCC will follow the facts and law wherever they may lead.”

FCC Commissioner Anna M. Gomez, the panel’s only Democrat who has backed Disney in its fight, cheered the Burbank media and entertainment company’s filing, saying in a post on X that she was “glad to see them expose the FCC’s actions as nothing more than naked political retribution and an unlawful assault on free speech and a free press.”

Times staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

The Google Insider Trading Case Hits Polymarket

Published

on

The Google Insider Trading Case Hits Polymarket

Andrew here. Warning: If you bet on prediction markets about things you could know about from your work, it may be insider trading. That’s the lesson from new charges against an employee of Google.

Also, Jamie Dimon is thinking about spending $20 billion on acquisitions; we go through some possible targets. And take our quiz about the U.F.C. fight scheduled to take place at the White House.

In the public’s view, prediction markets are a way to bet on the N.B.A. playoffs, the Texas Senate race or what Costco executives will say on their next earnings call.

They’re also often seen as a hive of insider trading, a view reinforced by charges filed on Wednesday against a Google employee who made more than $1 million on Polymarket. The case raises more questions about how these platforms are policed — and who should do the policing.

What happened: The Google employee, Michele Spagnuolo (who used the handle AlphaRaccoon), was accused of betting on what people were searching for on Google — wagers he was sure to win because he had access to internal search data.

Advertisement

“Spagnuolo correctly predicted virtually all of the outcomes on these positions,” the Commodity Futures Trading Commission wrote in its complaint.

A Google representative said in a statement that using confidential information for making these kinds of bets was “a serious breach of our policies.”

Spagnuolo isn’t the only person charged with insider trading on Polymarket. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan last month accused Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Special Forces soldier, of betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, an operation he participated in.

Insider trading is an increasing problem for prediction markets. Polymarket has faced significant scrutiny because its unregulated offshore platform has long made it easy to bet anonymously. (Kalshi, which is regulated in the U.S., has also suffered from insider trading.)

Polymarket has started clamping down on that practice, according to The Information — though some longtime users have chafed at those efforts. “Polymarket will go down the drain if they make KYC mandatory,” one user wrote on the company’s Discord discussion forum, referring to “know your customer” practices.

Advertisement

What are policymakers doing? Critics have accused the C.F.T.C., the primary American regulator of prediction markets, of failing to adequately police the industry. (Mike Selig, the commission’s chairman, told ABC News that his agency actively patrolled for wrongdoing.)

Some lawmakers are seeking to crack down on insider trading, including Representative James Comer, the Kentucky Republican who leads the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and several bipartisan groups of senators.

Why it matters: Prediction markets have become big businesses. (Kalshi was most recently valued at $22 billion.) But a growing perception that they’re rife with cheating could threaten their popularity.

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to fund U.S. drone companies. Shares in Unusual Machines, a drone start-up in which Donald Trump Jr. is an investor and advisory board member, are soaring in premarket trading after The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported on the potential investments. (The Times hasn’t independently confirmed the report.) The deals, aimed at bolstering domestic production, are still in the negotiation stage — equity stakes are a possibility — as the Pentagon vets the companies, The Journal adds.

Investors brace for Thursday’s inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report for April, which will be closely watched by the Fed, is expected to show on Thursday that headline inflation hit a three-year high of 3.9 percent. The wartime energy spike is a big culprit, and that’s likely to tie the Fed’s hands on interest rates. Lisa Cook, a Fed governor whom President Trump has tried to fire, is the latest policymaker to say that there’s even a rate increase in the cards.

Advertisement

Jensen Huang reportedly agrees to join the board of a Chinese university. Huang, the Nvidia C.E.O., is expected to be the latest U.S. business leader to join the advisory board of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, The Financial Times reports. Tim Cook, Apple’s departing C.E.O., is the chairman, and Michael Dell and Elon Musk are members. (Nvidia is trying to jump-start business in China as the Washington-Beijing trade war continues.) Laura Loomer, a right-wing agitator, quickly seized on the Huang news, calling it “a massive scandal!!!!” on social media, and a national security risk.

Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase, is sitting on a pile of cash and says he’s open to a deal. He even put a number on it: up to $20 billion.

While that’s not a big sum relative to the bank’s assets, it got us thinking: Where could JPMorgan, whose last major acquisition was First Republic during the 2023 regional-banking crisis, go fishing for a company to buy? Brian O’Keefe asked Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Wells Fargo.

Here are three possibilities:

Wealth management. Driven by solid margins and lucrative high-net-worth customers, this area of finance has experienced an M.&A. boom in recent years. (The First Republic deal already bolstered JPMorgan’s wealth-advisory ranks.) Such a move would tick a lot of boxes, Mayo said, adding, “It could be a high-end private bank, it could be kind of a mass-affluent brokerage firm, it could be wealth advisory.”

Advertisement
  • Mary Erdoes, who runs JPMorgan’s wealth management division, told analysts in February that her unit had reviewed 25 potential deals last year and passed on all of them.

Payments. JPMorgan has invested heavily in new payment platforms, including in JPM Coin, a digital token it has tested with Coinbase and Mastercard. The bank handles between $5 trillion and $10 trillion in transactions daily, Mayo said. “There could be more opportunities to enhance the efficiency, the effectiveness, the timeliness or the geographic reach in the payments area,” he added.

Digital banking. Dimon recently singled out Revolut, the British banking app that is plotting expansion into the U.S., as an emerging competitive threat. “To the extent that an acquisition could help JPMorgan become the next Revolut outside the United States, that would seem to be attractive,” Mayo noted.

There are some big asterisks to consider. Because of its size, JPMorgan would most likely be barred from buying another U.S. lender on antitrust grounds. For that reason, Mayo thinks that a deal, if there is one, would probably happen abroad.

Dimon himself is being coy. The bank may have amassed ample capital for acquisitions, but “it’s not burning a hole in our pocket at all,” Dimon said on Wednesday at an investor conference. “If it sits there for a while, no problem,” he added.

Dimon did not suggest any potential targets on Wednesday.

Advertisement

Here are some guesses:

  • Aberdeen Group, Invesco or Julius Baer in wealth management?

  • Revolut is too big, but how about Wise or Toast in payments?

  • Or what about Monzo or Bunq, fintech banks that have grown rapidly in Europe?


Meta will begin charging customers for access to its A.I.-powered chatbot, a big change for a company best known for its free products — and the latest sign that even deep-pocketed companies are wrestling with the enormous cost of artificial intelligence.

On Wednesday, we looked at how companies were reining in the costs of consuming A.I., including by switching to cheaper models. Meta’s move shows that the companies supplying A.I. models are also reckoning with ballooning costs, and seeking revenue to make up for those losses.

Meta is spending a fortune on A.I. Last month the company increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to as high as $145 billion, and Meta’s C.E.O., Mark Zuckerberg, said it would spend at least $600 billion on A.I. infrastructure in the next few years.

Some investors have looked skeptically on that plan. The company’s stock is down 2.3 percent this year.

Advertisement

Meta will use paid subscriptions to offset some of its A.I. investment. The basic tier of the chatbot, Meta One Plus, will be $7.99 per month. A premium version, Meta One Premium, will cost $19.99. From Bloomberg, which reported the subscription news earlier:

Meta has long argued that its A.I. investments are already paying off in the form of highly targeted and efficient advertising, which is improved thanks to A.I. models. But the company is also looking for other ways to recoup its A.I. spending, and consumer chatbot subscriptions have become popular with several other A.I. competitors, including Alphabet Inc.’s Google and OpenAI. Both rivals offer similarly priced subscription tiers.

The company has sought to expand its subscription business, testing plans for WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook. It has also tried to cut costs in other corners of its business. This month, Meta laid off 10 percent of its employee base, about 8,000 workers.

Investors, eager to see revenue gains from A.I., cheered Meta’s subscription-chatbot plan. The company’s stock price was up 3.7 percent at the market close on Wednesday.

  • Elsewhere, shares in the software maker Snowflake are soaring in premarket trading on Thursday after it reported strong quarterly results that suggested that A.I. agents weren’t clobbering its core subscription business. Salesforce’s analyst call on Wednesday, however, renewed fears that this sector was still vulnerable to A.I. disruption.

This question comes from a recent Times article. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)

President Trump is getting ready to celebrate his 80th birthday — and America’s 250th — with an evening of mixed martial arts. Preparations are underway to host Ultimate Fighting Championship matches in an octagon on the White House’s South Lawn on June 14. Construction of the temporary arena, along with a 90-foot-tall arch known as “The Claw,” featuring LED lights and audio equipment, began this week.

Advertisement

U.F.C. plans to spend around $60 million on the event, said Mark Shapiro, the president and chief operating officer of TKO Group Holdings, U.F.C.’s parent company, on a recent earnings call. (He added that U.F.C. would lose about $30 million on the event but that it would be “an investment for the long term.”)

The expenses include about $700,000 to repair the lawn after the fight, Dana White, the U.F.C. president and chief executive, told Sports Business Journal.

How many people will the temporary arena hold for the U.F.C. event at the White House?

Deals

  • “SpaceX-Tesla Merger Is ‘Only a Matter of When,’ Early Investor Says” (Bloomberg)

  • Shares in the European food-delivery company Delivery Hero are down sharply on Thursday after Uber, which is pursuing a takeover bid for the company, raised its stake to nearly 37 percent. (WSJ)

Politics, policy and regulation

Advertisement
  • The attorneys general of New York and New Jersey subpoenaed FIFA over soaring World Cup ticket prices. (WSJ)

  • Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said he would impose a 100 percent tax on payouts to state residents from the $1.8 billion fund tied to the Justice Department’s settlement with President Trump. (Politico)

Best of the rest

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending