Indiana Fever (13-16, 7-8 Eastern Conference) at Atlanta Dream (10-18, 4-10 Eastern Conference)

Atlanta; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT

BOTTOM LINE: Indiana Fever plays the Atlanta Dream after Caitlin Clark scored 23 points in the Fever’s 90-80 loss to the Minnesota Lynx.

The Dream’s record in Eastern Conference games is 4-10. Atlanta gives up 80.1 points and has been outscored by 4.3 points per game.

The Fever’s record in Eastern Conference action is 7-8. Indiana has a 2-2 record in games decided by less than 4 points.

Atlanta averages 75.8 points per game, 11.2 fewer points than the 87.0 Indiana allows. Indiana averages 82.6 points per game, 2.5 more than the 80.1 Atlanta gives up to opponents.

The teams square off for the third time this season. In the last matchup on June 21 the Fever won 91-79 led by 21 points from NaLyssa Smith, while Tina Charles scored 24 points for the Dream.

TOP PERFORMERS: Charles is averaging 13.9 points and 8.9 rebounds for the Dream.

Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 17.8 points for the Fever.

LAST 10 GAMES: Dream: 3-7, averaging 75.4 points, 37.0 rebounds, 17.8 assists, 6.4 steals and 3.8 blocks per game while shooting 42.0% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 79.0 points per game.

Fever: 6-4, averaging 86.3 points, 38.9 rebounds, 20.6 assists, 5.6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game while shooting 46.2% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 85.2 points.

INJURIES: Dream: Aerial Powers: out (calf ).

Fever: None listed.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

The Associated Press

Caitlin Clark and the 13-15 Indiana Fever visit the Minnesota Lynx for a WNBA clash at Target Center on Saturday, August 24 (8/24/2024).

How to watch: Stream the WNBA on DirecTV Stream (free trial).

Here’s what you need to know:

What: WNBA Regular Season game

Who: Fever @ Lynx

When: Saturday, August 24, 2024

Time: 8 p.m. EDT

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: NBA TV, Bally Sports (in market)

Channel finder: Verizon Fios, Xfinity, Spectrum, Optimum/Altice, Cox, DirecTV

Live stream: fuboTV (free trial), DirecTV Stream (free trial), Sling (half off first month)

After being left out of the U.S. Olympic women’s basketball team, Caitlin Clark used the time off to rejuvenate her game. The Indiana Fever point guard quickly regained attention by setting a WNBA record for assists in a season by a rookie, and is on track to break the overall record of 316 assists set by Alyssa Thomas last year.

Clark has also been making headlines due to her, let’s say, competitive spirit. She punched the base of the basket after missing a shot on Sunday against the Storm, and drew her fifth technical foul of the season as a result. The Fever won 92-75.

Next up, the Fever will face the Lynx looking to build on their recent successes with just about a quarter of the season left to play. The Lynx are 19-8 and leading the Western Conference. Known for their strong defense, Minnesota will aim to counter Clark’s offensive prowess.

What is DirecTV Stream?

DirecTV Stream is a comprehensive internet TV service that offers your favorite entertainment, news and sports channels, as well as local TV stations and regional sports networks. It’s the only choice for fans who want full access to local, televised sports. DirecTV Stream Choice includes 125+ channels, unlimited DVR storage and thousands of on-demand titles starting at just $69.99 per month for a limited time.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Incoming guard Kanaan Carlyle just barely qualified for inclusion in this series. To qualify, a player had to have played at least 25 minutes per game in the 2023-24 season. Carlyle played 25.1 for Stanford.

The smaller the sample size, the harder it is to find some comparisons. Add in the fact that Carlyle didn’t play in Mike Woodson’s system and with the same caliber of teammates in 2024, and that’s another degree of difficulty.

However, Carlyle plays a common position as an off-guard, and he also has a common body type for a guard at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds.

His role at Indiana is still to be determined. He’ll be fighting for minutes in a crowded backcourt with Myles Rice, Trey Galloway, Gabe Cupps, Jakai Newton and Anthony Leal.

So we’re going to keep our minds open on comparisons.

Tale of the tape

Carlyle’s traditional statistics: 11.5 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists at Stanford. He converted 38.6% of his shots and 32% of his 3-point attempts. He is listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds.

Carlyle’s advanced statistics, as used by sports-reference.com: Carlyle had 0.5 win shares and an 11.5 Player Efficiency Rating. He had a 27.7% usage percentage, a 19.5% assist percentage, a 6% total rebounding percentage and a minus-0.5 defensive box plus-minute rating.

Some of the advanced statistics are explained below.

Honorable mention

The traditional statistics brought a lot more “comps” than the advanced statistics did. Carlyle’s low 0.5 win share total dragged him below most of the players he compared to otherwise.

By traditional stats, Quinn Buckner ’73 is in range at 10.8 points, 2.9 assists and a 40.9% shooting percentage and he is also 6-3. Buckner was a far more effective rebounder, however.

Robert Vaden ’05 is much like Buckner in that sense. Vaden averaged 10.2 points, 2.1 assists and converted 37.6% of his shots. The freshman did average 4.3 boards per game and was two inches taller than Carlyle.

Armon Bassett ’07 was 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, relatively close to Carlyle. Bassett and Carlyle shot an identical 38.6% from the field and were close in rebounds (2.7 for Carlyle, 2.4 for Bassett) and assists (3 for Bassett, 2.7 for Carlyle). Bassett was a better 3-point shooter (40.9%), however.

3. Verdell Jones III ‘09

Jones makes another appearance in the comparison series. Purely by statistics, Jones is a very good match. He averaged 11 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists for Tom Crean’s 2009 Hoosiers. They also shot an almost identical 3-point percentage – Jones at 32.8%, Carlyle at 32%.

Jones is closest in win shares too at 1.1. They have a similar usage rate at 27.7% for Carlyle and 25.7% for Jones.

So why isn’t Jones higher on the list? For one thing, he’s 6-5. For another, Jones shot six percentage points better than Carlyle at 44.5% and was a much more prolific distributor. Jones had a 31.5% assist percentage. Carlyle was 19.5% at Stanford.

2. Robert Johnson ‘15

Unlike Jones and our top choice, Johnson is not a good match via traditional statistics, at least in terms of scoring. Johnson averaged 8.9 points. However, Johnson did average 2.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists, both of which are close to Carlyle’s numbers.

Advanced stats paint a closer portrait. Johnson had 1.6 win shares, a 6.3% rebounding percentage and wasn’t too far off at 15.5% assist percentage. Johnson is also nearly the same frame at 6-3 and 195 pounds and he averaged just two minutes more than Carlyle did.

1. Damon Bailey ‘91

This one surprised us. Bailey was, after all, the 1991 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. He would later be first-team All-Big Ten, but purely based on the numbers? The first seasons for Carlyle and Bailey are really tight.

Bailey averaged 11.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists for the 1991 Hoosiers. Those are all within a percentage point or two off of Carlyle’s averages.

Bailey was also 6-3, though he was a bit heavier at 201 pounds.

If you think Carlyle had a larger role? The numbers don’t back that up. Carlyle and Bailey played almost an identical amount of minutes – Bailey averaged 26 minutes in 1991. Bailey was Indiana’s third-leading scorer in 1991. Carlyle was Stanford’s fourth-leading scorer last year.

There are no advanced statistics available for Bailey, but there is one important difference between him and Carlyle. Bailey was a far better shooter at 50.6% from the field and 43.4% from 3-point range. That’s a major category to separate them, but as freshmen? They were much closer than one might think.

Rules

First, the basic rules. Players will only be compared to those who played roughly the same position. There’s little point in comparing Malik Reneau to Yogi Ferrell, for example.

There’s some leeway granted to shooting guards, whether they also handled the ball or whether they were big and could play small forward. Same for power forwards, some of whom are stretch forwards, others have manned the post.

This rule is important: players are only compared to those who were the same class. Seniors-to-seniors, juniors-to-juniors, etc.

With redshirt seasons, and particularly as it relates to current players, COVID-19 amnesty seasons, some current seniors can only be compared to seniors who exhausted their eligibility in their own period of time. Xavier Johnson had three senior seasons thanks to his injury waiver season – a true man of the times.

Criteria

Current Indiana players were compared to players of the past in three different categories – traditional statistics, advanced statistics and role.

One fundamental issue is that advanced statistics are only available starting in the mid-1990s – and that’s only the most basic ones. The full menu of advanced statistics we have today were only tracked starting in the 2009-10 season.

Even the full menu of traditional statistics weren’t accurately tracked until the 1980s.

Traditional counting stats and advanced stats create differences in comps. Traditional stats are subject to minutes played.

Players were considered a “comp” if they were within two points per game in scoring or within one win share in advanced statistics.

After that, the other statistics were used to form a close comparison. A good comp also needs to be roughly the same size, though that is difficult as players have steadily grown over time. Bill Garrett was a 6-foot-3 post player in the early 1950s, for example.

Ratings explained

Win shares: An estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player via their offense and defense. The higher the number, the better.

Player Efficiency Rating: A rating created by John Hollinger in an attempt to quantify a player’s overall contribution. An average rating is 15.

Usage Percentage: An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player when they’re on the floor.

Assist percentage: An estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted on where they were on the floor.

Total rebounding percentage: An estimate of the available rebounds a player grabbed when they were on the floor.

Defensive box plus-minus: A box score estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed to above a league-average player. The higher the number, the better.