Usually, by mid-October, Indiana fans have already turned the page from football to basketball. And, most years, that process is completed long before mid-October. 

But, in 2025, with Curt Cignetti at the helm, Hoosier nation has all of its attention channeled towards football – and rightfully so. Indiana is 6-0, ranked No. 3 in the country, and a full-fledged national title contender. 

Still, basketball season is inching closer by the day, as Darian DeVries’ squad even has an exhibition outing this Friday against Marian. 

Although Indiana isn’t expected to debut in the preseason top-25, the Hoosiers did have one of the highest-rated transfer classes in the country (No. 10, per 247 Sports), and appear poised to take a step in the right direction in Year One of the DeVries era. 

But, historically speaking, the AP poll hasn’t been the most accurate measure in terms of predicting success. Especially in today’s era, much of the college basketball world – and sports as a whole – is focused on analytics. 

In an encouraging sign for the Hoosiers, they appear to be well-respected in perhaps the sport’s most prominent metric: KenPom. 

Where did Indiana land in the KenPom preseason rankings?

DeVries’ crew was tabbed as the No. 40 team in the country in the initial release of KenPom’s 2025-26 rankings. Both Indiana’s offense (No. 35) and its defense (No. 41) are expected to be stellar, but neither are projected to be dominant by KenPom. 

10 other Big Ten squads ranked ahead of the Hoosiers, including notable teams in Purdue (No. 3), Illinois (No. 6), and UCLA (No. 10). 

How are KenPom preseason rankings calculated?

The metric – whether it’s the middle of the season, the end, or the beginning – is built to be “purely predictive”. For the preseason, KenPom uses box score and play-by-play data, along with scheduling information, while taking into account transfer portal additions and any other roster changes. 

Essentially, the analytical tool seems to use all available statistical data involving every member of a current team. Then, it flips all of that into an “adjusted efficiency margin”, also known as the “Net Rating”, to rank each team in Division I. 

It has been proven to be such an effective metric that even the NCAA Tournament committee uses it in the March Madness selection process. 

Nevertheless, considering Indiana hasn’t even played an exhibition game just yet, it’s safe to say that KenPom can’t be entirely accurate on pinpointing where the Hoosiers rank among the nation’s best. 

That said, it’s a promising sign that such a lauded metric appears to be relatively confident in Indiana heading into the 2025-26 campaign.

EUGENE, Ore. — Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti had already given his team the same relative speech each of the previous five days. But in this moment, as he commanded attention in the No. 7 Hoosiers’ locker room moments before kickoff for Saturday’s 30-20 upset victory at No. 3 Oregon, his words carried more weight.

Better yet, his words carried advice his team ultimately put to use over the next three-and-a-half hours.

“He told us we were going to have adversity, and we knew we were going to have to fight through it to get a win,” senior running back Roman Hemby said postgame. “We knew it wasn’t going to be just a knockdown all day for us. We knew we were going to have to have some ebbs and flows in the game, and we knew that we had to have that next play mentality.”

The Hoosiers faced adversity several times Saturday, be it allowing a 44-yard touchdown in the first quarter or dealing with the consequences of drive-altering pre-snap penalties on several occasions.

But they never faced it more than with 12 minutes and 42 seconds remaining in the game, as they walked, or jogged, back to their own sideline.

With pressure bearing down, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw a pass to receiver E.J. Williams Jr. on a crossing route. But Mendoza, who didn’t have the time or space to set his feet, didn’t get much on the ball, and Cignetti said Williams needed to flatten his route to help out his quarterback.

Blame aside, Oregon defensive back Brandon Finney Jr. undercut Mendoza’s pass and returned it for a 35-yard pick-six, drawing the score even at 20 apiece in the final frame. Indiana’s one-score lead — and chance at seizing control — had evaporated.

When he returned to the sideline, Mendoza wasn’t met with criticism or complaints. Instead, he found a group of Hoosiers entirely unfazed and ready to breathe confidence into him.

“I had all the leaders and basically everybody on the team come up to me, ‘Hey, we’re still behind you. Like, we got your back,’” Mendoza said postgame.

Senior linebacker Aiden Fisher was among those who approached and supported Mendoza. The gesture was particularly moving to Mendoza, who said it’d be easy for defenders to grow frustrated with him after allowing a touchdown and jeopardizing a stout defensive effort.

“After I threw the pick six, Fish came up to me and said, ‘Hey brother, I have your back. I believe in you,’” Mendoza said. “And to have a team captain say that and come up to me and say that, it inspires confidence in not just me, but the entire offense.”

While Indiana’s offense huddled near its own 30-yard line during the media timeout before the next drive, nothing changed in Mendoza’s routine — he threw passes off to the side. He did, however, have a visitor: Cignetti.

The 64-year-old coach asked Mendoza if he was having fun. Mendoza said he was. Cignetti urged him to have more fun, and with three pats to his back, Cignetti let his quarterback continue his traditional pre-drive process.

The opposing sideline carried a different tone. Hemby said Oregon was hyped and riled up after the pick-six. But Indiana had the ball, a game plan and a quick chance to flush Mendoza’s mistake.

Oh, and the Hoosiers had something else, too.

“We had a mission to go finish,” Hemby said. “So, we had to go out there and lead a drive to go get another score, and that’s what we did.”

Indiana stared down a season- and program-defining 12-minute, 42-second stretch and smiled. After all, this is what Cignetti projected Saturday to be like. The Hoosiers were confident and prepared, and their execution reflected it.

The drive itself was slow and methodical.

Hemby started the possession with a two-yard run. Mendoza hit receiver Omar Cooper Jr. for a nine-yard catch-and-run to move the chains. Indiana converted three third downs, including a do-or-die 3rd and Goal from the Ducks’ 8-yard line where Mendoza hit Sarratt for a go-ahead touchdown on a back-shoulder pass.

There was never panic, only belief.

“That’s resiliency right there,” Cignetti said postgame. “That’s like being a rubber ball, right? If you’re not resilient, you don’t want to be like the crystal chandelier. When you drop it, it breaks into a million pieces. You want to be like a rubber ball. It bounces right back into your hand.

“That’s what he did after he threw the interception. He came right back and made the plays and wasn’t affected by the previous play. In this game, if you want to play the best you can be, you’ve got to always play like this. Never too high, never too low. Not affected by success, not affected by failure during the course of the game.”

Mendoza finished the day 20-for-31 passing for 215 yards, one touchdown and an interception while adding 31 yards on six rushes. What his outing lack in glit, he made up for in grit.

Indiana knew Saturday wasn’t always going to be pretty. Cignetti told the Hoosiers during the week he expected a dogfight. He has 43 seasons of coaching experience and plenty of big-game memories. His team believed him.

Cignetti admitted Indiana’s mindset was the most important question to him entering the game. It’s the one facet he didn’t have an answer for until live bullets started flying.

Mendoza’s mistake put Indiana under its biggest microscope this season. The Hoosiers handled it like veterans — perhaps because, after playing against two top 10 teams last year and another in Illinois this year, they are.

“Coach Cig was telling us we’re going to go through adversity, and the adversity hit right then and there,” Sarratt said. “And it was all about just responding, and we were able to do that, so it was great to see.”

The Hoosiers were mentally wired for the moment long before Cignetti’s pre-game speech. Mendoza said Indiana banded together and became a stronger team after battling in spring and fall practice. There’s complete buy-in, he said, which makes the Hoosiers “special.”

Mendoza, who transferred from Cal to Indiana in December, already has Cignetti’s oft used cliches mastered. He recited Cignetti’s line about playing one snap at a time and treating it like the most important play merely because it’s the next one.

And on a day where Indiana took its step into the realm of modern college football giants, Mendoza, perhaps more than ever, reflected all the qualities of his coach: Poised under pressure with an impenetrable will to win.

“We knew there was going to be resilience in this game, and we knew we had to overcome resiliency and adversity at some point,” Mendoza said. “And I think we showcased that perfectly.”