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Editorial: Is Illinois losing population? The question misses the point.

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Editorial: Is Illinois losing population? The question misses the point.


Census figures for Illinois have proven in recent years to be an unusually hot political topic. That happens when population loss takes hold as a negative narrative for a state.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimate, released earlier this week, showed Illinois’ population declining by 0.26% in the past year. That prompted the usual criticisms from conservative groups, which blame the state’s Democratic leaders for policies causing residents to leave, and the typical defenses from Democratic politicians such as Gov. J.B. Pritzker and U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi.

Indeed, in the recent past, the Census Bureau has adjusted its population figures for Illinois upward after allowing that it undercounted. The sky isn’t falling in the Land of Lincoln. But, we all can agree, it isn’t sunshine and rainbows, either.

We understand the Pritzker administration’s pushback to the latest figures given that Illinois’ share of substantial federal funds is tied to its number of residents. It’s the governor’s job to advocate for the state, and we certainly can use every federal dollar we can get.

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On a longer-term basis, though, we shouldn’t allow the quibbling over these specifics to serve as the final word on the subject. The hard truth is that Illinois isn’t growing and thus is losing ground — in financial and political terms. If present trends continue, Illinois’ number of congressional seats will drop to 15 from the current 17, according to a recent report by the nonprofit Brennan Institute.

Illinois currently has the fifth largest share of House seats, tied with Pennsylvania. Illinois would fall to sixth under these projections and its representation in the House would equal that of Georgia and North Carolina.

So it would make sense for the Pritzker administration, perhaps with the assistance of Illinois’ top-notch universities, to embark on an unbiased deep dive into what’s driving Illinois’ population struggles.

How about leaving the partisanship and ideologies at the door and trying to develop a broader understanding of the problem? Reversing our population stagnation won’t happen without some sort of collective, bipartisan acknowledgment of the causes.

Obviously, it’s complicated, and Illinois is a state with major regional differences. What’s driving out-migration in Chicago isn’t going to be the same as what’s causing decline in rural parts of the state. We need to study both with equal fervor.

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What sorts of policy changes would make Illinois a more attractive destination for those living elsewhere and looking for a change? How can Illinois benefit from immigration, and how can it help those migrants who are already here become more productive?

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Helpful areas of focus would include taxes and public safety, subjects conservative voices repeatedly reference. But the strategy should also include policies to improve our business environment, create new incentives for newcomers and companies alike, and invest in more and better marketing. That’s just for starters.

The point is, Illinois could use just that — a strategy. One informed by research and data and not tilted to achieve some preordained policy goals.

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Easier said than done, we understand.

But as we and others have said over and over, Illinois’ strengths and attributes are enviable. Even our weather — long a negative over which we have no control — is proving, unfortunately for the planet, to be something of a selling point in an era of global warming.

Illinois is a great place to live. Let’s figure this out.

Join the discussion on Twitter @chitribopinions and on Facebook.

Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.

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Detective Fatally Shot, Road Rage Slaying: Illinois News

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Detective Fatally Shot, Road Rage Slaying: Illinois News


ILLINOIS — On the weekend, we present a week in review of the top stories and headlines from all across Illinois. Here’s a roundup of some of the most-read stories across the state. You can also find your local Patch and catch up on those stories by clicking here.

Murder Charge Filed In I-80 Road Rage Shooting Death

State police responded to a 911 call of a shooting on I-80 and found a 30-year-old man who had been shot to death after a road rage-related crash, officials said.

Detective Killed In Shooting

Police said the officer, 40, was fatally shot after responding to a report of an armed person leaving a bank. The person accused in the shooting was also shot and is hospitalized, police said.



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Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula

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Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula


Happy Friday, Illinois Land!

Instead of doing the usual column with post-Thanksgiving word puns involving side dishes and jokes about turkeys, I will use my time to point out a few things that I now know about college basketball in 2025, and the place that Illinois occupies inside of that stratosphere.

I will also discuss where Illinois fits into the landscape of the Big Ten. I think you’ll like how I see that unfolding. My pending Big Ten Analysis will highlight the lack of good depth in the conference.

It is not exactly a banner year for the Big Ten in men’s college basketball. To say the least.

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Despite the fact that the Big Ten has dropped in the national landscape, and despite the fact that Illinois lost to a True Elite in 2025 against Alabama in Birmingham by double digits, it’s great beyond words to have a head basketball coach leading your program playing basketball the way it needs to be played at this present date.

Brad Underwood has turned Illinois into a National Program. Do not confuse this with being a national powerhouse.

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Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

As I see it, here are the five levels of Illinois basketball. National Championship Contender can replace Blue Blood for Illinois. There was no way for me to get in a shot at Indiana and its fans unless I constituted it this way.

For reference: Indiana is now No. 61 in KenPom (76 in OER, and 51 in DER). I was told that they are the conference favorite. I was also told Illinois cannot play defense. More on this in a bit.

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  • Conference Bottomfeeder (Year 1-2): 26-39 in his first two seasons, 11-27 in the Big Ten. I would call this 1990s Era coaching. Up the line, full court pressure, etc.
  • Respected NCAA Tournament Team (Year 3+): This will be five-straight non-bubble NCAATs for Underwood, six if you count the COVID-19 cancellation of 2020.
  • Big Ten Power (Year 3+): In turn, this makes you a Final Four contender on semi-annual basis, at a minimum. I don’t mean make a Final Four, but be a Top Four seed. No one believes that NC State had a better season than Illinois last year.
  • National (and International) Program (Year 4+): Playing games on CBS on Thanksgiving by request, re-hiring arguably the country’s top assistant coach (Orlando Antigua), signing two potential lottery picks from two countries outside the United States. I could go on, but I won’t. You get it.

Illinois v Arkansas

Gobble gobble.
Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

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  • Blue Blood (Never): This outdated term continues to keep Indiana fans from jumping off the nearest bridge for the last three-plus decades. Illinois will never be here. UCONN can’t get into the club with six National Championships since 1999.

Having said that, I’m going to say this.

John Calipari is in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. He has taken three different programs to the Final Four: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky. He is an all-time great coach with a dazzling record (814-260, for a .758 winning percentage).

Calipari won an NCAA Tournament and cut down the nets in 2012, his third year in Lexington leading the Cats. He was outstanding at Kentucky (410-123), winning games at a .769 clip during his 15-year tenure.

He inexplicably missed the NCAA Tournament twice, going just 9-16 in 2021. His last three years, Kentucky lost 30 games and twice in the NCAAT to vastly inferior teams against No. 15 St. Peter’s and last year against No. 14 Oakland.

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Illinois v Arkansas

Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

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Please read the words I type. Do not create a false narrative around comparing Calipari and Underwood, in totality.

Underwood certainly has not had the career of Calipari — it’s not close — nor will he likely end up in the Hall of Fame anywhere outside of Champaign. Not impossible, but not likely.

Looking to the future, it’s clear which coach of the pair from the Thanksgiving matchup in Kansas City has the brighter future. This isn’t close, either.

While Underwood’s Illini blitzed Arkansas with a barrage of threes, high ball screens and floor spacing for play makers, Calipari and Kentu…Arkansas…had a plan “to attack the rim all game,” according to Calipari post-game.

Arkansas ATTEMPTED 17 threes. Illinois MADE 15. Illinois was +30 in in this category.

Frees (points at the free throw line) and threes (points behind the arc) is something I look at during every halftime, and after every game.

Illinois was +29 in this category. BU’s squad scored 90 points on the elite Arkansas defense, which was ranked No. 8 in KenPom DER prior to the contest.

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The Illini had 60 of their 90 points (67.7%) of their points on Frees and Threes. Check on this stat every game that Underwood and Illinois play the entirety of the season. It will likely tell the story.

Factor in 2P% defense and you can get the winner of every game Illinois plays this year. The defensive strategy of Illinois is to defend the bucket and the arc. Despite giving a bucket full to Alabama in the lone loss (100-87), Illinois is currently No. 21 in DER.

Let’s take a look at pace of play, and how it affects efficiency, from a large scale perspective. What Illinois is doing is hard to copy.

For that matter, the Illinois offense is now No. 18 in OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating). Of the top 21 in DER on KenPom, Illinois has the FASTEST tempo, at No. 36.

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Illinois v Arkansas

Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

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In summary, Illinois plays in the Top 10% in pace of play and ranks even better in efficiency at both ends. It’s not only extremely difficult to do, but largely unnecessary.

When you play fast and efficient on offense, defense lessens in importance in direct correlation with how more efficient your offense can be. In short, play fast and good on offense and you outscore your opponent and win based on simple math.

Here are the avearages for defensive and offensive efficiency. The lower the number, the faster the pace.

Top 5 DERs in terms of pace average: 260.6

Top 5 OERs in terms of pace average: 66.8

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Illinois pace of play: 36 (Top 21 in both DER and OER)

I know it’s a lot of numbers. I get it. Underwood has embraced the numbers game and turned Illinois from a Big Ten Bottomfeeder to a National Program.

You may not like it, but you’re gonna learn to love it.

Please take The Scientific Poll.

Poll

What is the win ceiling for Illinois men’s basketball in 2024-25?

This is threes and frees. This is creating space. This is the winning formula.

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This is Illinois Basketball.



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Kasparas Jakucionis scores a season-best 23 points as Illinois tops No. 19 Arkansas

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Kasparas Jakucionis scores a season-best 23 points as Illinois tops No. 19 Arkansas



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KANSAS CITY (AP) — Freshman Kasparas Jakucionis scored a season-high 23 points, Tomislav Ivisic had 21 points and 10 rebounds and Illinois beat No. 19 Arkansas 90-77 on Thursday in the Thanksgiving Hoops Showcase.

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Jakucionis hit two free throws to give Illinois a double-digit lead with 3:49 remaining in the game. Arkansas had a turnover and a missed jumper on its next two possessions and Jakucionis hit an open 3-pointer to make it 85-71 at 2:42.

Kylan Boswell added 18 points for Illinois (6-1). Head coach Brad Underwood broke a tie with J. Craig Ruby (1922-36) for fifth place in program history with 149 wins.

Adou Thiero went 12 of 21 from the line and scored 26 points for Arkansas (5-2). Zvonimir Ivisic had 13 points, six rebounds and two blocks.

Takeaways

Tomislav Ivisic won the battle against his twin brother, Zvonimir. Along with his double-double, Tomislav Ivisic made 6 of 9 3-pointers and blocked three shots. The 7-foot-1 center, playing his first college season, had 13 points and seven rebounds in the first half.

Key moment

Illinois stated the game on a 21-6 run and maintained at least a nine-point lead the rest of the way. Ben Humrichous made the Illini’s fifth 3-pointer with 12:36 left in the first half while Arkansas was 3 of 9 from the field.

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Key stat

Illinois made 55% of its shots in the first half, including 9 of 16 from 3-point range, while Arkansas was 0 for 7 from long distance and shot 44% overall. The Illini finished 15 of 31 from distance. Arkansas shot 5 of 17 beyond the arc.

Up next

Arkansas plays at Miami in the second SEC/ACC Challenge on Tuesday. Illinois plays at Northwestern on Dec. 6 to begin Big Ten play.



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