Health
Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say
Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.
But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.
The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.
“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.
But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.
The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.
If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.
“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”
The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.
For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.
The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.
“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.
Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.
The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.
“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”
While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.
The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.
Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.
Health
‘Aggressive’ new flu variant sweeps globe as doctors warn of severe symptoms
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Flu season is among us, and a new strain has emerged as a major threat.
Influenza A H3N2, or the subclade K variant, has been detected as the culprit in rising global cases, including in the U.S.
In an interview with Fox News Digital, Dr. Neil Maniar, professor of public health practice at Boston’s Northeastern University, shared details on the early severity of this emerging strain.
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“It’s becoming evident that this is a pretty severe variant of the flu,” he said. “Certainly in other parts of the world where this variant has been prevalent, it’s caused some severe illness, and we’re seeing an aggressive flu season already.”
Influenza A H3N2, or the subclade K variant, has been detected as the culprit in rising global cases. (iStock)
The variant seems to differ from prior strains of the flu, with heightened versions of typical symptoms like fever, chills, headache, fatigue, cough, sore throat and runny nose.
Subclade K is the “perfect storm” for an aggressive flu season, Maniar suggested, as vaccination rates overall are down and this year’s flu vaccine does not address this specific strain.
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“The vaccine is very important to get, but because it’s not perfectly aligned with this variant, I think that’s also contributing to some degree to the severity of cases we’re seeing,” he said. “We’re going in [to this flu season] with lower vaccination rates and a variant that in itself seems to be more aggressive.”
“There’s a lot of concern that this could be a particularly difficult flu season, both in terms of the total number of cases [and] the severity of those cases.”
Staying indoors during the colder months increases the risk of exposure to winter illness. (iStock)
Because subclade K is “quite different” from prior variants, Maniar said there is less natural immunity at the community level, further increasing the risk of spread and severity.
Those who are unvaccinated are also at risk of experiencing more severe symptoms, as well as a higher risk of hospitalization, the doctor emphasized.
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In addition to getting vaccinated, the doctor recommends washing hands frequently and properly. While the flu can spread via airborne transmission, a variety of other illnesses, like norovirus, can stick to surfaces for up to two weeks, he added.
The holiday season also boosts the risk of infection, as gatherings, large events, and packed planes, trains and buses can expose people to others who are sick.
The flu vaccine can help to prevent hospitalization and reduce severe symptoms, doctors agree. (iStock)
Those who are not feeling well or exhibiting symptoms should “please stay home,” Maniar advised — “especially if you think you are in that contagious period of the flu or any of these other illnesses that we’re seeing … whether it’s norovirus or COVID or RSV.”
“If you’re not feeling well, stay home. That’s a great way to recover faster and to ensure that you’re not going to get others around you sick.”
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For those who are unsure of their health status or diagnosis, Maniar recommends seeing a healthcare provider to get tested. Some providers may be able to prescribe medication to reduce the severity and duration of the illness.
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“It’s important that everyone stays vigilant and tries to take care of themselves and their families,” he added.
Health
Are you too old to shovel snow? Experts reveal the hidden heart risks
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As snow blanketed parts of the U.S. this week, heart health experts have shared warnings of the physical strain shoveling can take — particularly for older adults.
A 2025 Mayo Clinic review found that just 10 minutes of heavy snow shoveling can push the heart to about 97% of its maximum rate. Exposure to cold air was also found to increase blood pressure and reduce coronary blood flow.
While there isn’t an official age that’s “too old” to shovel, some cardiologists recommend that individuals over 45 should exercise more caution to lower their chances of a cardiac event.
When to take caution
“While there’s no strict age cutoff, generally above the age of mid 40s and above, we tend to be a little more cautious — particularly in people who are less active [without] regular exercise,” Dr. Navjot Kaur Sobti, M.D., an interventional cardiologist at Northwell’s Northern Westchester Hospital in Mount Kisco, New York, told Fox News Digital.
Heart health experts have shared warnings of the physical strain shoveling can take — particularly for older adults. (iStock)
“Certainly in people who are above the age of 65 — and who have risk factors for heart disease, such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, obesity or sedentary lifestyle — we recommend being very, very cautious about shoveling snow,” she advised.
Dr. John Osborne, M.D., a practicing Texas cardiologist and volunteer for the American Heart Association, shared similar guidance for people older than 45, especially males over 65.
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“Unless you are in good cardiovascular shape and conditioned, it may be a good idea to ask someone for help,” he said in an interview with Fox News Digital.
The impact of snow removal is especially concerning for those with existing cardiovascular risks and a history of heart attack or stroke, according to the cardiologist. “People with these characteristics and those who have had bypass surgery or coronary angioplasty simply should not be shoveling snow in any conditions,” he said.
Just 10 minutes of heavy snow shoveling can push the heart to about 97% of its maximum rate, a 2025 Mayo Clinic review found. (iStock)
Osbourne said he often sees cardiac episodes in people who are typically sedentary and sit at a computer most of the day with little or no exercise. “Then once or twice a year, they go out and try to shovel the driveway after a heavy snowfall, and that unexpected exertion can unfortunately lead to tragedy.”
Hidden strain
The stress that is placed on one’s heart while shoveling snow is similar to what occurs during a cardiac stress test, Sobti pointed out, and may even exceed it.
Cold temperatures can cause blood vessels to constrict and blood pressure to spike — which, coupled with existing hypertension and the exertion of lifting snow, can significantly tax the heart, she warned.
“It’s almost like an at-risk person is putting themselves through an unsupervised maximal exertion stress test without a cardiologist actively monitoring them,” Sobti told Fox News Digital.
The stress that is placed on one’s heart while shoveling snow is similar to what occurs during a cardiac stress test. (iStock)
In addition to the exertion of shoveling, frigid temperatures can also strain the heart. Recent research has shown that cold exposure accounts for nearly twice as many cardiovascular deaths as heat exposure, including heat exhaustion.
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That study, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine last month, also found that those over age 65 had higher rates of temperature-related deaths.
“So the risk is very, very high,” Sobti cautioned. “It’s really that sudden rise in blood pressure coupled with the physical stress of snow shoveling itself.”
Safer shoveling tips
The cardiologist said it’s ideal to have someone else help with snow removal — but if you do choose to use a shovel, she recommends pacing yourself and using a “pushing or sweeping” motion instead of heavy lifting.
Recent research has shown that cold exposure accounts for nearly twice as many cardiovascular deaths as heat exposure. (iStock)
To protect against the cold, Sobti also recommends covering your mouth, nose and extremities, wearing a hat and gloves, and using extra caution in windy conditions.
Using an automated snow blower can still raise the heart rate — up to 120 beats per minute, compared to 170 while shoveling, the American Heart Association states on its website.
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It is also important to be aware of any symptoms of a potential cardiac issue while shoveling, Sobti emphasized.
If a person starts to experience warning signs such as chest pain, shortness of breath, a racing heart or palpitations, those should not be ignored.
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Even if the symptoms resolve after a few minutes, a person “could still be experiencing symptoms of a heart attack” and should call 911 for evaluation, Sobti said.
“It’s better really to be safe than sorry.”
Health
Nutrient deficiency linked to heart disease risk for millions, new study warns
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More than three-quarters of the global population is falling short on omega-3 intake, a nutrient gap that may increase the risk of heart disease, cognitive decline, inflammation and vision problems.
That’s according to an analysis published in Nutrition Research Reviews, in which researchers from the University of East Anglia, the University of Southampton and Holland & Barrett analyzed omega-3 intake patterns across multiple countries and age groups.
The review found that 76% of people worldwide are not meeting the recommended levels of two omega-3 fats that are essential for heart health: eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA).
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The analysis considered recommendations from global health authorities and assessed how closely populations follow them.
Most adults should aim for at least 250 milligrams of EPA and DHA per day, though actual intake is far lower in many regions, according to the researchers.
A new study found that 76% of people fall short of their recommended omega-3 intake. (iStock)
To explore the health implications of low omega-3 intake, Fox News Digital spoke with Michelle Routhenstein, a New York–based preventive cardiology dietitian at Entirely Nourished.
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Low omega-3 levels can have a noticeable impact on heart health, cognitive function and inflammation throughout the body, the expert confirmed.
Low intake can also increase the risk of heart attacks and sudden cardiac death, she added. It’s also associated with higher triglycerides, irregular heart rhythms and plaque in the arteries.
Most adults should aim for at least 250 milligrams of EPA and DHA per day, researchers say. (iStock)
Inadequate omega-3 levels have also been linked to changes in brain function, including faster cognitive decline, a higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease and increased rates of depression.
Routhenstein noted that low levels may also worsen inflammation in autoimmune conditions such as psoriasis, and can negatively affect eye health, since omega-3s play a key structural role in the retina.
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To improve omega-3 levels, the expert said it’s important to understand how much is needed and where to get it.
“The richest dietary sources of EPA and DHA are oily fish, such as salmon, mackerel, sardines, herring, trout and anchovies,” Routhenstein told Fox News Digital.
Oily fish, such as salmon, are among the richest natural sources of omega-3s. (iStock)
Many people benefit from eating oily fish more frequently, often three to four times per week, Routhenstein noted. For individuals who do not eat fish regularly, supplements can help raise EPA and DHA to healthier levels.
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For those taking omega-3 supplements, dosing should be based on lab results, medications, omega-3 levels and overall medical history, according to Routhenstein. Moderate, quality-controlled supplements are generally considered safe for most people.
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There is also some evidence supporting prescription-strength omega-3 products.
“High-dose EPA, such as 4 grams per day of icosapent ethyl, has been shown to reduce major cardiovascular events in certain high-risk populations, while similar doses of mixed EPA/DHA have not consistently shown the same benefit,” Routhenstein said.
Omega-3 dosing should be individualized based on lab data, medication use, current levels and overall medical history. (iStock)
Testing omega-3 levels can also help determine whether intake is adequate. The omega-3 index, a blood test that measures EPA and DHA in red blood cells, is considered one of the most reliable ways to assess status.
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“Levels around 8% are associated with lower cardiovascular risk, while levels below approximately 4% are considered low,” Routhenstein said.
Understanding baseline levels can help guide more personalized decisions about diet and supplementation.
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Those who are unsure about their omega-3 status or whether supplementation is appropriate should speak with a healthcare provider to determine the best approach.
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