Health
Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say
Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.
But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.
The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.
“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.
But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.
The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.
If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.
“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”
The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.
For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.
The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.
“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.
Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.
The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.
“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”
While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.
The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.
Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.
Health
Quitting smoking could offer a major benefit beyond heart and lung health, study finds
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People who quit smoking may reduce their risk of developing dementia later in life, according to new research.
A team of researchers at a university in China analyzed data from more than 32,000 adults over a 25-year period and found that former smokers had a lower risk of dementia compared to people who continued smoking.
The findings were published in the journal Neurology.
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During the study period, researchers documented 5,868 cases of dementia.
Participants who quit smoking during the study had a significantly lower risk of developing dementia than current smokers. Their risk was similar to people who had quit smoking before the study began and those who had never smoked.
New research suggests that quitting smoking may lower the chance of developing dementia later in life. (iStock)
The researchers also found that dementia risk continued to decline the longer a person remained smoke-free, approaching that of never-smokers after about seven years.
The benefits appeared strongest among people who gained little or no weight after quitting.
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“Our findings suggest that quitting smoking may support long-term brain health, but they also highlight that what happens after quitting matters,” lead researcher Hui Chen said in a statement.
The reduction in dementia risk was most pronounced among people who experienced little or no weight gain after they stopped smoking. (iStock)
Zaid Fadul, a Harvard-trained physician and chief medical officer of Bespoke Concierge MD who was not involved in the research, said the findings add to growing evidence that quitting smoking can help protect long-term brain health.
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“The key takeaway is that the brain appears to benefit from smoking cessation at virtually any stage,” Fadul told Fox News Digital.
“Smoking contributes to chronic inflammation, oxidative stress, and damage to blood vessels that supply the brain, all of which are associated with cognitive decline and dementia risk.”
Fadul said the findings should encourage smokers who may feel it is too late to quit.
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“Importantly, it is rarely ‘too late’ to quit,” he said.
“While earlier cessation offers the greatest benefit, the body and brain begin recovering soon after smoking stops.”
Experts say it is almost never too late to quit smoking, as the body and brain start to recover soon after a person stops, although quitting earlier provides the greatest health benefits. (iStock)
Improvements in circulation, reduced inflammation and better cardiovascular health can help preserve cognitive function later in life, according to Fadul.
“Every year without tobacco is a step toward lowering future dementia risk and improving overall health,” he said.
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While the findings were encouraging, the study does have limitations.
Researchers identified an association between quitting smoking and a lower risk of dementia, but the study was not designed to prove that ending smoking directly prevents the condition.
Other health, lifestyle and environmental factors may have also influenced participants’ outcomes.
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Fox News Digital reached out to the researchers for further comment.
Health
How 3 Women Reversed Fatty Liver Disease and Lost Nearly 300 Lbs. Combined
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Health
Just 5 minutes of prayer could have surprising health benefits, study finds
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Adult patients experienced significant relief from pain and anxiety after just five minutes of in-person prayer, as found in a randomized controlled trial.
The study, led by researchers at the University of Maryland School of Medicine’s Department of Family and Community Medicine, compared the effects of direct prayer to the effects of listening to music, revealing that prayer provided greater and more sustained relief for both symptoms.
“Prayer is powerful and beneficial on many levels,” Jesse Bradley, pastor of Grace Community Church in Washington, told Fox News Digital.
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According to statistics cited in the study, prayer is the most used form of complementary medicine in the United States, relied on by 43% of Americans.
The researchers focused on a practice known as proximal intercessory prayer (PIP), which is defined as in-person, face-to-face prayer directed toward another individual’s well-being.
The researchers tracked changes in the participants’ self-reported pain and anxiety levels at multiple intervals: immediately after the five-minute session, at two weeks and at six weeks. (iStock)
The research team recruited 180 adult patients from a family medicine waiting room, according to a press release. All participants had previously reported experiencing moderate to severe pain, anxiety or both.
Following their standard medical appointments, the patients were randomly assigned to one of two groups: the prayer group, in which participants received five minutes of in-person Christian prayer delivered by a trained volunteer, and the music group, where they spent five minutes listening to music.
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The researchers then tracked changes in the participants’ self-reported pain and anxiety levels at multiple intervals: immediately after the five-minute session, at two weeks and at six weeks.
“It was very well-received,” Katherine Jacobson, MD, assistant professor of family and community medicine at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, told Fox News Digital. She noted that 97% of participants said they were “neutral or supportive” when asked about having this kind of prayer available as part of their medical visits.
An expert described the transformative power of prayer through “healing and comfort,” and shared that he himself once went through a long, painful recovery process. (iStock)
The study, which was published in The Annals of Family Medicine, revealed that while patients in both groups showed improvements, those in the prayer group reported substantially greater relief.
Bradley, who was not involved in the study, described the transformative power of prayer through “healing and comfort,” and shared that he himself once went through a long, painful recovery process.
“Daily prayer was essential in my healing journey,” he shared.
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For pain reduction, the individuals who received in-person prayer experienced greater drops in pain intensity immediately following the session. This superior level of relief remained evident during the two-week follow-up compared to the music group, the researchers found.
For anxiety reduction, the benefits of prayer were even longer-lasting. The prayer recipients reported significantly greater reductions in anxiety immediately after the session, and these positive effects remained statistically significant at both the two-week and six-week checkpoints.
The prayer recipients reported significantly greater reductions in anxiety immediately after the session, and these positive effects remained statistically significant at both the two-week and six-week checkpoints. (iStock)
“We expected that patients who expected prayer to work would benefit more, but that wasn’t what we found,” Jacobson said.
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“Religious affiliation, religious intensity and expectancy of healing did not predict who improved,” he went on. “Benefits appeared across a wide range of patients, including those not of the Christian faith and those who did not expect the intervention to help them.”
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The study had some limitations, the researchers acknowledged, primarily that it could not prove that prayer itself caused the improvements.
The team also noted that patients receiving prayer had human contact, while the music control group did not. The eye contact and gentle laying of hands from the prayer volunteers may have had an impact, as that type of contact is known to reduce pain.
The researchers suggested that PIP could serve as a low-cost, non-pharmacologic and effective complement to standard medical care. (iStock)
The authors hope to conduct future studies with a control group that receives interpersonal contact but no prayer.
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“For physicians and health systems, the study supports continuing to ask patients about spiritual care preferences as part of whole-person care, and considering whether trained Christian volunteer prayer practitioners could be integrated into outpatient settings for interested patients,” Jacobson said.
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The researchers suggest that PIP could serve as a low-cost, non-pharmacologic and effective complement to standard medical care.
Rather than replacing traditional treatments, the authors indicate that this type of brief, faith-based intervention could be integrated into primary care settings to help manage pain and anxiety.
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