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Wall Street’s 2025 outlook for stocks

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Wall Street’s 2025 outlook for stocks

The targets range from 6,400 to 7,007. This implies returns between +5% and +15% from Friday’s close. It’s a tighter range than last year’s targets, with many clustering in that 8%-10% return expectation.

Before we move on, I’d once again caution against putting too much weight into one-year targets. It’s extremely difficult to predict short-term moves in the market with any accuracy. Few on Wall Street have ever been able to do this consistently. DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas recently pointed out that the standard deviation around the mean annual total return for the S&P 500 is nearly 20 percentage points! More here.

I do however think the research, analysis, and commentary behind these forecasts can be very informative.

In summary: The fundamentals supporting earnings growth are firm. Valuations are above historical averages but are not cause for alarm. As usual, there’s plenty of uncertainty. But on balance, the outlook for stocks is favorable.

Below is a roundup of 14 of these 2025 targets for the S&P 500, including highlights from the strategists’ commentary.

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  • UBS: 6,400, $257 earnings per share (as of Nov. 18): “After a rally this year through Trump’s cabinet appointments, we see mild downside in equities in H1 next year amid a step down in US growth. Once earnings estimates have fallen to more realistic levels, H2 ’25 should be better.”

  • Morgan Stanley: 6,500, $271 (as of Nov. 18): “Looking forward to 2025, we think it will continue to be important for investors to remain nimble around market leadership changes, particularly given the potential uncertainty that the recent election outcome introduces. This is also a reason why we are maintaining a wider than normal bull versus bear-case skew — base case: 6,500; bull case 7,400; bear case 4,600.”

  • Goldman Sachs: 6,500, $268 (as of Nov. 18): “We estimate net margins will expand by 78 bp to 12.3% in 2025 followed by a further 35 bp increase to 12.6% in 2026. Our economists assume the Trump administration will impose targeted tariffs on imported automobiles and select imports from China. They also assume a 15% corporate tax rate on domestic manufacturers. On net, the impact of these policy changes on our EPS forecasts roughly offset one another.”

  • JPMorgan: 6,500, $270 (Nov. 27): “US equities should remain supported by the expanding business cycle, US Exceptionalism that is helping broaden the AI cycle and earnings growth, ongoing easing by global central banks and the wind-down of Fed’s QT in 1Q. At the same time, US households are benefiting from a tight labor market, sitting on record wealth (+$10T over the past year to ~$165T as of 2Q24, +$50T since Covid), and potentially lower energy prices. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty and the evolving policy agenda are introducing unusual complexity to the outlook, but opportunities are likely to outweigh risks. The benefit of deregulation and a more business-friendly environment are likely underestimated along with potential for unlocking productivity gains and capital deployment.”

  • CFRA: 6,585 (as of Nov. 20): “This new target incorporates fundamental, technical, and historical considerations, influenced by a 2.4% projected growth in U.S. real GDP and a 13% rise in S&P 500 operating earnings, supported by a continued decline in inflation readings and interest rates. Historical returns during the third year of bull markets following two successive years of double-digit increases, combined with stretched valuations relative to 10-year averages (using the current forward P/E ratio, market-cap to total revenue, and total enterprise value to forward EBITDA metrics), temper our optimism, leading to the below-average projected full-year price gain.”

  • RBC: 6,600, $271 (as of Nov. 25): “The story the data tells us is that another year of solid economic and earnings growth, some political tailwinds, and some additional relief on inflation (which should keep the S&P 500’s P/E elevated) can keep stocks moving higher in the year ahead.”

  • Barclays: 6,600, $271 (as of Nov. 25): “For U.S. equities, we think macro positives outweigh the negatives heading into next year. … We expect most sectors to be impacted by disinflationary margin pressure and slowing ex-US growth in 2025, while Big Tech continues offsetting to the upside.”

  • BofA: 6,666, $275 (as of Nov. 26): “Get ready for a cyclical inferno. Nine reasons: (1) Red sweep, (2) Fed cuts, (3) accelerating profits, (4) re-shoring, (5) productivity cycle, (6) shift from everyone spending on Tech to Tech spending on everything, (7) municipalities refurbishing to court corporates, (8) tight capacity / decades of underspend in manufacturing, and (9) lightest positioning in cyclical sectors since at least the GFC.”

  • BMO: 6,700, $275 (as of Nov. 18): “Bull markets can, will, and should slow their pace from time to time, a period of digestion that in turn only accentuates the health of the underlying secular bull. So, we believe 2025 will likely be defined by a more normalized return environment with more balanced performance across sectors, sizes, and styles.”

  • HSBC: 6,700 (as of Dec. 6): “We expect next year’s equity returns to be focused on earnings growth as valuations are more stretched… Overall, we expect earnings to grow by 9% incorporating a slower but still resilient U.S. economy and some margin expansion.”

  • Deutsche Bank: 7,000, $282 (as of Nov. 25): “Attention is focused on late cycle indicators, while early cycle indicators have been turning up. We see various aspects of the cycle yet to kick in, including de- to re-stocking; capex outside Tech; capital markets and M&A; loan growth; and rest of the world growth. With potential policy changes by the incoming administration having both positive and negative implications for growth, sequencing will be key, but we expect growth to remain the priority. Over several rounds of the last trade war, escalations saw equity selloffs which then prompted de-escalations.”

  • Yardeni Research: 7,000, $290 (as of Nov. 10): “Just after Donald Trump won the presidential race on November 8, 2016, we observed that the economy and stock market were charged up with “animal spirits,” a term coined by John Maynard Keynes meaning spontaneous optimism. Animal spirits are back now that Trump won a second term on November 5…”

  • Capital Economics: 7,000 (as of Nov. 7): “These projections, which rest on the assumption that the US economy will not stand in the way of a bubble in the stock market inflating amid hype around AI, are looking much less bold than they once did. But we aren’t minded to push up the forecasts just because the index has risen and reacted very favorably to the news of Trump’s victory. A key reason is our view that his policies would be a net negative for growth in the US and elsewhere. What’s more, if we’re right to exclude a major fiscal expansion from our list of working assumptions, US firms’ profits probably won’t get a boost from a further cut in corporation tax. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our existing projections for the S&P 500 because we don’t see Trump’s election derailing the economy or preventing the bubble in AI from inflating.”

  • Wells Fargo: 7,007, $274 (as of Dec. 3): “On balance, we expect the Trump Administration to usher in a macro environment that is increasingly favorable for stocks at a time when the Fed will be slowly reducing rates. In short, a backdrop where equities continue to rally.”

Donald Trump looks on as Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the White House. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria/Archive) · Reuters / Reuters

Most of the equity strategists TKer follows produce incredibly rigorous, high-quality research that reflects a deep understanding of what drives markets. Consequently, the most valuable things these pros have to offer have little to do with one-year targets. (And in my years of interacting with many of these folks, at least a few of them don’t care for the exercise of publishing one-year targets. They do it because it’s popular with clients.)

So first off, don’t dismiss their work just because a one-year target is off the mark.

Second, I’ll repeat what I always say when discussing short-term forecasts for the stock market:

It’s incredibly difficult to predict with any accuracy where the stock market will be in a year. In addition to the countless number of variables to consider, there are also the totally unpredictable developments that occur along the way.

Strategists will often revise their targets as new information comes in. In fact, some of the numbers you see above represent revisions from prior forecasts.

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For most of y’all, it’s probably ill-advised to overhaul your entire investment strategy based on a one-year stock market forecast.

Nevertheless, it can be fun to follow these targets. It helps you get a sense of the various Wall Street firms’ level of bullishness or bearishness.

I think RBC’s Lori Calvasina said it best in her outlook report: The price target “should be viewed as a compass as opposed to a GPS. It is a construct that helps to articulate whether we believe stocks will move higher and why.”

Good luck in 2025!

Below is a sampling of what Wall Street is saying about the economy in 2025.

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Nora Carol Photography via Getty Images

BofA (Dec. 2): “We expect stable growth (2.3% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026), slightly elevated inflation (2.5-3%) and a terminal rate of 3.75-4%. Cuts in Dec, Mar, Jun. Even before tariffs or fiscal easing, data warrant slower cuts. The US economy went into the elections with structural and cyclical tailwinds. Structural: productivity and potential growth appear to have picked up, supporting higher policy rates. Cyclical: consumer remarkably resilient. Solid real income growth, healthy balance sheets. Fiscal policy has buoyed private and public investment. The labor market is the main concern. Bad news: narrow and slowing job gains, downward revisions, Sahm rule triggered, falling vacancies. Good news: low layoffs (and claims)…”

Deutsche Bank (Nov. 25): “We ultimately anticipate that modest tax cuts, a strong deregulation push, and more supportive financial conditions will produce faster growth in 2025, which we now see at 2.5% (Q4/Q4) versus 2.2% previously. Beyond next year, adverse effects from the trade war and a more restrictive monetary policy setting reduce our growth estimates modestly.”

Goldman Sachs (Nov. 17): “The Republican sweep in the recent elections will likely bring policy changes in three key areas. First, we expect tariff increases on imports from China and autos that raise the effective tariff rate by 3-4pp. Second, we expect tighter policy to lower net immigration to 750k per year, moderately below the pre-pandemic average of 1mn per year. Third, we expect full extension of the expiring 2017 tax cuts and modest additional tax cuts. These changes are significant, but we do not expect them to substantially alter the trajectory of the economy or monetary policy.”

JPMorgan (Nov. 21): “The election has sparked dueling boom-bust narratives on the path ahead. There are now upside risks to growth from deregulation and tax cutting and downside risks from tariffs and general policy uncertainty. But one shouldn’t lose sight of the business cycle, which has been performing well. We look for only a mild downshift in growth in 2025 to 2%, with a small additional rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Core PCE inflation expected to decelerate a half-point next year to 2.3%. We look for the Fed to cut 25bps in December and another 75bps by the end of 3Q25, then stop at 3.75%.”

Morgan Stanley (Nov. 17): “Lower immigration flows and more tariffs slow GDP growth and make inflation stickier. Nascent inflationary pressures and broad policy uncertainty spark greater Fed caution, leading to a pause in 2Q. As higher tariffs hit growth and job gains almost stop in 2H26, rate cuts resume.”

UBS (Nov. 8): “We expect the new administration is inheriting a moderate economic slowdown, and as it is, the pace of nonfarm payroll employment gains has slowed from the brisk over 200K per month pace of 2023, to 148K per month over the six months ending in September. Inflation progress is projected to resume as we move through 2025. We expect that backdrop keeps the FOMC on track for lowering rates. Many crosscurrents such as potential deregulation and slower population growth move into the mix, with uncertain net impacts. We assume fiscal policy changes largely affect 2026 and beyond, based on existing agreements for the fiscal year ending in September 2025. The new tariffs we expect to be phased in with mostly a 2026 impact too. However, we did take out one rate cut in 2025, leaving monetary policy the tiniest bit more restrictive as the rollout of China tariffs begins.”

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Wells Fargo (Nov. 21): “American trade policy likely will change in a more restrictive direction. During his campaign for president, Donald Trump repeatedly promised to impose a 10% across-the-board tariff with a 60% levy applied to China. The cost of tariffs, which are a tax on imported goods, are generally borne by consumers. Tariff increases of Trump’s threatened magnitude would lead to a marked increase in inflation next year, while significantly reducing the rate of economic growth, not only in the United States but in many foreign economies as well. We have bumped up our U.S. inflation forecast for next year, while shaving down our U.S. real GDP growth outlook.”

There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:

👍 The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the BLS’s Employment Situation report released Friday, U.S. employers added 227,000 jobs in November. The report reflected the 47th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.

Total payroll employment is at a record 159.3 million jobs, up 7 million from the prepandemic high.

The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — ticked up to 4.2% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.

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While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.

Wage growth ticks lower. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.37% month-over-month in November, down from the 0.42% pace in October. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 4.0%.

Job openings rise. According to the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, employers had 7.74 million job openings in October, up from 7.37 million in September.

During the period, there were 6.98 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.1 job openings per unemployed person. This continues to be one of the more obvious signs of excess demand for labor. However, this metric has returned to prepandemic levels.

Layoffs remain depressed, hiring remains firm. Employers laid off 1.63 million people in October. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.0% of total employment. This metric remains at pre-pandemic levels.

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Hiring activity continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.31 million people.

That said, the hiring rate — the number of hires as a percentage of the employed workforce — has been trending lower, which could be a sign of trouble to come in the labor market.

People are quitting less. In October, 3.33 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 2.1% of the workforce. While the rate ticked up last month, it continues to trend below prepandemic levels.

A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.

Job switchers still get better pay. According to ADP, which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in November for people who changed jobs was up 7.2% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 4.8%

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Unemployment claims tick higher. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 224,000 during the week ending November 30, up from 215,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.

Consumer vibes improve. From the University of Michigan’s December Surveys of Consumers: “Consumer sentiment improved for the fifth consecutive month, rising about 3% to its highest reading in seven months. A surge in buying conditions for durables led Current Economic Conditions to soar more than 20%. Rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases.”

Consumer sentiment readings have lagged resilient consumer spending data.

Politics clearly plays a role in peoples’ perception of the economy: “The expectations index continued the post-election re-calibration that began last month, climbing for Republicans and declining for Democrats in December. Independents were, as usual, in the middle between the two major parties, with readings close to the national average. This adjustment process is consistent with a response to actual underlying changes in expectations for the national economy, and not merely an expression of partisanship. For example, throughout this month’s interviews, Democrats voiced concerns that anticipated policy changes, particularly tariff hikes, would lead to a resurgence in inflation. Republicans disagreed; they expect the next president will usher in an immense slowdown in inflation. As such, national measures of sentiment and expectations continue to reflect the collective economic experiences and observations of the American population as a whole.”

Notably, expectations for inflation appear to be a partisan matter.

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Card spending data is holding up. From BofA: “In the week ending Nov 30, retail ex-autos spending per HH was up 2.0% vs. the week ending the day after Black Friday in 2023. Online retail spending was particularly strong around the Thanksgiving period, while brick & mortar retail was soft. A later Thanksgiving this year means we need to wait at least another week to get a clean read on holiday spending.”

From JPMorgan: “As of 29 Nov 2024, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 1.9% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 29 Nov 2024, our estimate of the US Census November control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.28%.”

Gas prices tick lower. From AAA: “Like a glacier grinding its way to the sea, the national average for a gallon of gas is closing in on the $3 mark, shedding three cents since last week to $3.03. It has been less than a dime away from $3 for over a month as the waffling decline has been agonizingly slow. The last time the national average was below $3 was May 11, 2021.”

Mortgage rates tick lower. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.69%, down from 6.81% last week. From Freddie Mac: “This week, mortgage rates decreased to their lowest level in over a month. Despite just a modest drop in rates, consumers clearly have responded as purchase demand has noticeably improved. The responsiveness of prospective homebuyers to even small changes in rates illustrates that affordability headwinds persist.”

There are 147 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.6 million are owner-occupied and 34 million (or 40%) of which are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.

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Offices remain relatively empty. From Kastle Systems: “Peak day office occupancy was 57% on Thursday last week, as many workers stayed home in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Tuesday occupancy was down 18.9 points to 42.8%, and even Monday fell more than seven points, down to 41.8%. The average low was 26.4% on Wednesday, less than half of the prior week’s 61.1%.”

Supply chain pressures remain loose. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index — a composite of various supply chain indicators — ticked higher in November but remains near historically normal levels. It’s way down from its December 2021 supply chain crisis high.

Business investment activity trends at record levels. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a.k.a. core capex or business investment — declined 0.6% to $73.7 billion in October.

Core capex orders are a leading indicator, meaning they foretell economic activity down the road. While the growth rate has leveled off a bit, they continue to signal economic strength in the months to come.

Services surveys still point to growth. From S&P Global’s November Services PMI: “Companies have reported stronger demand for services thanks to the clearing of political uncertainty following the election, as well as brighter prospects for the economy in 2025 linked to the incoming administration and hopes for lower interest rates. The latter, alongside strong market gains in recent weeks, has helped drive an especially strong surge in demand for financial services, though November also saw robust growth for business and consumer services.”

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The ISM Services PMI reflected growth but at a cooling rate.

Manufacturing surveys look less bad. From S&P Global’s November Manufacturing PMI: “Optimism about the year ahead has improved to a level not beaten in two and a half years, buoyed by the lifting of uncertainty seen in the lead up to the election, as well as the prospect of stronger economic growth and greater protectionism against foreign competition under the new Trump administration in 2025.”

Similarly, the ISM’s November Manufacturing PMI improved from the prior month.

Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.

Construction spending ticks higher. Construction spending increased 0.4% to an annual rate of $2.17 trillion in October.

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Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth climbing at a 3.3% rate in Q4.

Putting it all together

The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by expectations for years of earnings growth. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.

Demand for goods and services is positive, and the economy continues to grow. At the same time, economic growth has normalized from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is less “coiled” these days as major tailwinds like excess job openings have faded.

To be clear: The economy remains very healthy, supported by strong consumer and business balance sheets. Job creation remains positive. And the Federal Reserve — having resolved the inflation crisis — has shifted its focus toward supporting the labor market.

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We are in an odd period given that the hard economic data has decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continue to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, what matters is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.

Analysts expect the U.S. stock market could outperform the U.S. economy, thanks largely due to positive operating leverage. Since the pandemic, companies have adjusted their cost structures aggressively. This has come with strategic layoffs and investment in new equipment, including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is translating to robust earnings growth.

Of course, this does not mean we should get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about — such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, cyber attacks, etc. There are also the dreaded unknowns. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.

There’s also the harsh reality that economic recessions and bear markets are developments that all long-term investors should expect to experience as they build wealth in the markets. Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.

For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t be able to overcome over time. The long game remains undefeated, and it’s a streak long-term investors can expect to continue.

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A version of this story first appeared at TKer.co

Finance

Campaign finance data shows most Anchorage Assembly races are close on fundraising

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Campaign finance data shows most Anchorage Assembly races are close on fundraising
Election officials prepare the Assembly Chambers for in-person voters on Monday, March 24, 2025. (Bill Roth / ADN)

Half of the Anchorage Assembly’s seats will be decided in this April’s municipal election. According to campaign finance reports submitted to the Alaska Public Offices Commission earlier this week, many of the six races are close in terms of fundraising, with some exceptions.

In the years since Anchorage shifted to mail-based balloting for its elections, many candidates have generally adjusted their spending strategies, retaining cash until March, when voters begin receiving their ballot packets. Several of this cycle’s candidates appear to have held off on major spending. But a number of challengers seeking to knock off incumbents have made significant expenditures already.

Voters will begin receiving their ballots in the mail in mid-March, and ballots are due back by the April 7 deadline.

District 1 – Downtown/North Anchorage

Assembly Chair Chris Constant is barred by term limits from running again. Four candidates are vying to fill his seat, though only two reported significant fundraising and campaign expenditures.

Sydney Scout reported raising $50,130 since launching her campaign last year. She’s spent a little more than half of that, with close to $23,000 in cash still on hand.

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Among Scout’s donors are a number of political action groups representing labor and public safety unions. She saw a few larger contributions from local donors but overwhelmingly reported smaller contributions under $500. Among her financial supporters are many prominent local politicos, including several current members of the Assembly and Anchorage School Board, as well as Democratic groups.

Most of her $27,509 in expenditures so far have gone to campaign services paid to Amber Lee Strategies, as well as $7,500 to True Blue Associates, a strategy firm run by two former progressive bloggers who have worked for Democrats in the Legislature in the past. There are a number of purchases for ads on Meta’s social media platforms, Facebook and Instagram, as well as in-person campaign events.

Justin Milette reported raising $36,771 in his Alaska Public Offices Commission disclosure, with at least $13,000 from Milette himself. He received several other major donations, including $5,000 from a loan officer at Alaska Growth Capital, another $5,000 from a local attorney and $2,500 from independent investor Justin Weaver. That was about the same amount Weaver contributed to Scout’s campaign.

Milette received contributions from a number of prominent local political figures and advocates, including Republican gubernatorial candidate Treg Taylor and Sami Graham, who briefly served as chief of staff for former Mayor Dave Bronson.

Most of Milette’s spending — $22,566 — has gone to the firm Red Dirt Campaigns for a range of services, including donor data, printing, canvassing data and media products.

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Two other candidates filed to run for the seat, Nicholas Danger and Max Powers. Danger reported no campaign income. Powers had not submitted a fundraising disclosure report to APOC as of Thursday.

District 2 – Eagle River

Assembly member Scott Myers, who currently represents the communities north of the Anchorage Bowl, is not running for a second term.

First-time candidate Donald Handeland reported raising more than $40,000, of which a little more than $26,000 has been spent so far.

Though Handeland reported contributing $2,500 of his own money, he raised the overwhelming majority of his funds through relatively modest donations from well over a hundred people.

Many prominent conservatives show up on Handeland’s donor rolls, including former heads of the Alaska Republican Party Tuckerman Babcock, Randy Ruedrich and Peter Goldberg; both of the district’s current Assembly members, Myers and Jared Goecker; and many of the individuals who regularly contributed to Bronson’s mayoral campaigns.

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Handeland reported spending more than $13,000 on campaign services from Red Dirt Campaigns. He also bought digital ads on social media. He split costs with four other candidates for a fundraising event called “Axe the Tax” at a local ax-throwing parlor. The fundraiser was premised on candidates’ shared opposition to a proposed city sales tax, which was eventually pulled back by Mayor Suzanne LaFrance in early January.

Campaigning against Handeland is Kyle Walker, who ran unsuccessfully to represent the district during the last cycle. Of the $8,258 he reported raising, $5,500 came from union PAC contributions. The remainder were small individual donors.

Though Walker reported a little more than $4,000 in expenses so far, he listed another $13,666 in financial commitments to the Ship Creek Group for campaign management and a comprehensive suite of services. Ship Creek has been a major player in local politics, working primarily with moderate and left-leaning candidates, but is attached to only one other Assembly campaign this cycle.

District 3 – West Anchorage

The race is a rematch of the 2023 contest for the same seat, in which Assembly Vice Chair Anna Brawley beat challenger Brian Flynn by a 17-point margin. Then as now, there is a lot of money flowing to both candidates.

So far, Flynn has outraised Brawley but is also spending down his war chest more aggressively, primarily on campaign services by firms both inside and outside of Alaska.

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Brawley reported $52,044 in campaign contributions, including thousands of dollars from just under a dozen organized labor PACs. Her largest individual donor was retired banker Victor Mollozzi, who contributed $4,000 in two separate installments. Among her prominent backers are current members of the Assembly and school board, Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich and Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.

Brawley has spent several thousand dollars so far on campaign services from Amber Lee Strategies, the same firm that handled her 2023 run. She’s also paid for printed signs, as well as access to the Alaska Democratic Party’s voter information. But most of her resources are in reserve. Brawley listed $17,400 committed to the The Mobilization Center, a local outfit that handles field operations for political campaigns.

Flynn reported raising $81,663. Among his contributors are a number of prominent local Republican and conservative politicians, including outgoing School Board member and current Assembly candidate Dave Donley, Republican former House Minority Leader and current state Rep. Mia Costello, and former Anchorage first lady Deb Bronson.

Flynn received a few hefty donations from individuals. John and Kari Ellsworth, who own part of the Anchorage Wolverines junior hockey franchise, gave a combined $6,500. Business owners Teresa Hall and Diane Bachman each gave $5,000.

According to Flynn’s APOC report, he’s spent $63,414. The biggest portion of that, more than $21,000, has gone to Optima Public Relations, a Wasilla-based firm that primarily handles conservative and Republican political campaigns. He also spent more than $7,000 on direct mail handled by national Republican consulting firm Axiom Strategies, and several hundred dollars more to its polling arm Remington Research for text messaging services. A $3,700 expenditure was listed to former Assembly candidate Travis Szanto for “putting up signs, sign frames.”

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District 4 – Midtown

Incumbent Felix Rivera is terming off the Assembly. The race to replace him is between two older candidates who both have experience with local political campaigns, and are roughly even on their fundraising and expenditures so far.

Dave Donley has served as a Republican in the Alaska Legislature, and is winding down three terms on the Anchorage School Board. He reported raising close to $39,000 so far, of which he’s spent almost $28,000. A number of influential conservative politicians, both current and former, chipped in to his campaign, including gubernatorial candidates Treg Taylor and Shelley Hughes, as well as former Anchorage mayors Rick Mystrom and George Wuerch. He also received contributions from several union PACs.

Donley’s main expenditures include services provided by Red Dirt Campaigns, which range from consulting work and data to social media and content production. He’s also spent money advertising on conservative opinion blogs.

Paralegal and former nurse Janice Park reported raising $42,226, and has spent less than half of that. Park has unsuccessfully run several times for legislative positions as a Democrat. She received contributions from several current and former Democratic lawmakers, as well as current members of the Assembly and the Anchorage Democrats. Her largest contributor was Justin Weaver, the private investor, who so far has donated $14,000 to Park.

Park has made a lot of small ad buys to Meta for social media reach, as well as on traditional analog printed signs. But her largest expenditure is for “campaign consulting, including communications, compliance, and strategy” to True Blue Associates.

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Kim Winston, a third candidate who formally filed for the seat, reported no income to APOC.

District 5 – East Anchorage

Incumbent George Martinez is fending off a challenge from Cody Anderson, a retired non-commissioned Air Force officer and church pastor.

Martinez raised close to $11,000, most of it in new contributions from individual donors and unions, on top of $5,000 in money carried over from a past campaign. Several current Assembly members chipped in modest amounts, along with a $300 contribution from the Anchorage Democrats.

Martinez only listed $5,634 in campaign spending so far. The two largest expenditures in his APOC report were $1,000 for “promotion/advertisement” to a company based in Miami, Florida, and $1,256 to Alaska Airlines for “travel,” with no additional details listed in the report.

Anderson reported raising $45,878, however his campaign finance disclosure listed payments to his campaign manager and other substantial expenditures as income, distorting the total by more than $16,000, according to a review of his APOC report.

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Among those donations are thousands of dollars from employees at Mountain City Church, where Anderson works, including $1,000 from former head Jerry Prevo and $2,000 from lead pastor Ron Hoffman. The Anchorage Republican Women’s Club donated $750.

Anderson’s biggest expenditures listed were $5,500 to his campaign manager for various services and $7,500 for content creation and social media placement to Stephanie Williams, who worked as a special assistant under former Mayor Bronson before resigning in 2021.

District 6 – South Anchorage

Incumbent Zac Johnson is running for a second term against Bruce Vergason, whose background is in business and construction, as well as a third candidate, Janelle Anausuk Sharp, an environmental scientist.

Johnson reported $33,272 in contributions, with $9,239 spent and more in future financial commitments to a local political firm.

Johnson received contributions from several organized labor groups, along with current and former members of the Assembly.

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He listed $11,500 in future payments committed to Ship Creek Group for comprehensive campaign management services.

In his APOC filing, Vergason listed $43,843 in fundraising and $17,052 in spending. He received major contributions from local business owner Susanne Gionet and physician John Nolte, who donated $5,000 each.

On top of $6,290 paid to Optima for campaign work, Vergason also paid $2,460 to election data firm i360 for canvassing services, along with significant outlays for sign printing. Vergason was part of January’s ax-themed fundraiser, coordinating with Handeland, Anderson, Donley and Flynn on the joint event.

Sharp appears to have raised around $3,500. Though her APOC disclosure listed a significantly higher figure, it erroneously categorized expenses as income. Cheryl Frasca, who is listed as her campaign treasurer, has a long record of handling compliance reports for political campaigns, including several current Republican gubernatorial candidates, and headed the municipality’s Office of Management and Budget under Bronson.

Outside of a $679 contribution to Optima for campaign logo design, Sharp’s biggest expenditure was $4,233 to The Business MD for services that include “assisting with general campaign strategy and organization, communications guidance, and outreach planning to help strengthen voter connection organization, all of which is advisory in nature.” The company is run by a local businesswoman focused on emotional intelligence coaching.

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Epstein waged a years-long quest to meet Putin and talk finance

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Epstein waged a years-long quest to meet Putin and talk finance

Jeffrey Epstein was on a mission to meet with Vladimir Putin when an intriguing proposal dropped into his email.

The Russian president was ready to receive Epstein, according to an October 2014 message from a correspondent on a database of more than 3.5 million files belonging to the late convicted sex offender that have roiled global politics and business.

“I spoke t= Putin,” wrote the interlocutor, whose identity has been redacted by the US Department of Justice. “He would be very glad if you were to visit and explain=financial markets in the 21 st century. Digital currency. derivative= structured finance. I would set up the meeting when you are next in=Europe. I am sure you two will like each other.”

Hours later, Epstein forwarded the message with a request for advice to Kathy Ruemmler, who’s stepping down as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s general counsel after details of her association with the disgraced financier emerged in the files released by the Justice Department.

In his response, Epstein anticipated that her advice would be not to go “for the moment” and that was in fact the case. Ruemmler’s reply was brief: “Yes my answer is still the same,” she wrote. “Your fun i= denied.”

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The caution at that point was understandable. Months earlier, Putin had sent Russian troops to annex Crimea from Ukraine, prompting wide-ranging US and European Union sanctions and sparking the geopolitical crisis that has since spiraled into the largest conflict in Europe since World War II.

Epstein’s fascination with Putin and Russia was undimmed, though, even as the documents paint a picture of a man who appeared largely clueless about who had genuine power and influence with the Kremlin leader. The files show a years-long effort to secure a one-on-one meeting with Putin, whose name appears about 1,000 times in the database.

The emails are quoted here as they appear in the DOJ release, including spelling and grammatical errors.

Ultimately, it seems, his quest was unsuccessful. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin never met Epstein as far as he’s aware, and no evidence has emerged so far to show that they did.

Earlier that year, in January, Epstein pitched former Norwegian Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland as the politician apparently prepared to meet with Putin in Sochi. The Russian Black Sea resort was shortly to host the 2014 Winter Olympics, the most expensive in history as Putin lavished $50 billion to present the games as a showcase of his country’s post-Soviet restoration.

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Sport wasn’t on Epstein’s mind. “you can explain to putin , that there should be a sopshiticated russian version of bitcoin,” he wrote. “it would be the most advanced financial instrument availbale on a global basis.”

Jagland was among the most prominent European politicians at the time as secretary general of the Council of Europe for a decade between October 2009 and September 2019. Jagland met Putin on May 20, 2013, according to the Kremlin’s website, and returned to Sochi in 2014 for the opening of the Olympics.

On May 8, 2013, Epstein asked Jagland to secure him an audience with the Russian leader. “I know you are going to meet putin on the 20th, He is desperate to engage western investment in his country,” the financier wrote. “I have his solution. He needs to securitize russian investment, that means the govt takes the first loss.”

Epstein went on: “I recoginize that there are human rights issues that are at the forefront of your trip howver, if it is helpful to you, I would be happy to meet with him sometime in June and explain the solution to his top prioirty, I think this would be good for your goals. exchange somehting he really wants. for someting you want.”

In a further exchange a few days later, Jagland told Epstein “all this is not easy for me to explain to Putin. You have to do it. My job is to get a meeting with him.”

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Epstein replied that Putin “is in a unique position to do something grand, like sputnik did for the space race.” He added: “I would be happy to meet with him , but for a minimum of two to three hours, not shorter.”

Apparently, a counter-offer came from Moscow that failed to enthuse Epstein. On May 21, he claimed in a message to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak that Putin had proposed a meeting during the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum the following month.

“I told him no,” Epstein wrote to Barak. “If he wants to meet he will need to set aside real time and privacy, lets see what happens.”

Days earlier, on May 9, referring to Putin, Epstein admitted to the Israeli politician that “I never met him.”

Two years later, in 2015, Barak wrote to thank Epstein for arranging his own participation at the St. Petersburg forum, where he said he held meetings with Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as well as the heads of the country’s two largest banks, Herman Gref of Sberbank and VTB Bank’s Andrey Kostin.

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A spokesperson for Barak didn’t immediately offer comment.

As early as November 2010, Epstein was boasting to an unidentified correspondent that he had “a friend of Putin,s” who could help him secure a Russian visa, in response to an apparent party invitation.

Epstein noted on an application form for a year-long Russian visa in 2011 that he’d been issued with visas every year but one between 2002 and 2007, and had traveled to the country. It’s unclear from the files how many times he made use of the visas to visit Russia, though they indicate he made repeated plans to go there.

In April 2018, he received an email advising that his Russian visa was expiring and he’d need an official invitation letter to “renew for a 3 year business visa.” The visa was subsequently issued in June.

Epstein sent more emails to Jagland asking about meetings with Putin until June 2018. That last message, about a month before Putin held his first summit with US President Donald Trump in Helsinki, was the most concise.

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“Would love to meet with Putin,” Epstein wrote.

Norwegian authorities started a corruption probe into Jagland this month over his links to Epstein.

Jagland is “fully cooperating with the police and has provided a detailed account of all relevant matters,” his lawyer, Anders Brosveet, said in a statement, declining to comment further. “He denies all charges against him.”

Trump’s election in 2016 gave Epstein more opportunity to cultivate Russian contacts, presenting himself as someone who could explain the political newcomer. This is what Epstein did during Trump’s first term, telling foreign officials how best to deal with the new president, according to one person who knew him at that time, asking not to be identified because the matter is sensitive.

One, apparently, was Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations in New York until his death in February 2017. Epstein claimed to Jagland that he’d coached the late Churkin on how to talk to Trump, and suggested he tell Putin that Lavrov could also “get insight on talking to me.”

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Writing in June 2018, Epstein said: “churkin was great . he understood trump after =ur conversations. it is not complex. he must=be seen to get something its that simple.”

According to the DOJ files, Epstein also had regular contact with Sergei Belyakov, a former deputy economy minister and a graduate of Russia’s FSB security service who was involved in organizing the St. Petersburg economic forum. In one 2015 email, Epstein described him as a “very good guy.”

Belyakov didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Epstein bragged about his own FSB connections in another 2015 message to an unknown contact that he’d accused of attempting to blackmail him.

“I felt it necessary to contact some friends in FSB, and I though did not give them your name,” Epstein wrote. “So i expect never ever to hear a threat from you again.”

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–With assistance from Ott Ummelas and Dan Williams.

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Urgent superannuation warning for thousands as Aussie loses $165,000: ‘I just clicked’

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Urgent superannuation warning for thousands as Aussie loses 5,000: ‘I just clicked’
Melinda Kee (pictured) is on a mission to find the other victims who moved their superannuation into collapsed funds before it’s too late. (Source: Supplied)

Thousands of Australians are still likely in the dark about losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in their retirement savings. Authorities are still waiting for victims to come forward after more than a $1 billion was quietly lost from superannuation funds of workers across the country.

Social media ads and aggressive sales tactics were used to lure in regular working Australians. That was the case for Queensland woman Claire* who was encouraged to move her superannuation into a new fund and ultimately lost $165,000 when she later learned it had disappeared.

Claire only realised something was wrong when she received a strange email from “equity trustees” which in the moment didn’t mean anything to her at all.

“I was just lucky that I clicked on it,” she told Yahoo Finance.

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Claire, who works in education, admits she isn’t a sophisticated investor. She paid almost no attention to her superannuation but came across an ad while “doomscrolling” Facebook that caught her eye.

“It was along the lines of nine out of 10 super funds are underperforming. Is your’s one of them?” she recalled. “It wasn’t dodgy looking.”

She clicked to find out if her super fund was on the list.

“To get the article you had to put your name and your phone number and your email in, or something like that.”

However when she did, she didn’t get an article. Instead she got a call from a business on the Gold Coast.

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Claire was urged to send through her latest superannuation statement, which she did, and that’s when the “constant” calls started.

Despite her reservations and skepticisms – and repeatedly declining their overtures – the pushy tactics from financial advisors on the other end of the line eventually wore her down and she was convinced to move her superannuation from industry fund QSuper to a fund she couldn’t actually find anything about on Google, called NQ Super.

“They essentially had an answer for everything and made it sound safe as houses, and if I didn’t do this I’m an absolute idiot… They sort of played on my naivety and my lack of knowledge of the super system,” she said.

Claire looking at her superannuation information in a Queensland office.
Claire is one of about 12,000 Aussies who lost an estimated $1.1 billion. (Source: Supplied)

In her late 30s, Claire was promised much higher returns by the time she retired if she switched.

In a subsequent statement of advice put together by an advisory firm called Venture Egg, and seen by Yahoo Finance, she was told the money would be put into mostly standard investments such as the Betashares Nasdaq ETF and Vanguard ETF funds for Australian and international stocks – common, low risk products that track broad sections of the stock market.

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Against her better judgement, she moved her fund over in 2023. But the following year she received a “random” significant event notice in her inbox about an investment fund she’d never heard of.

Claire eventually discovered she had actually been moved into something called the Shield Master Fund which had since collapsed.

Claire is one of about 12,000 Aussies who lost an estimated $1.1 billion when Shield and, later, the First Guardian Master Fund imploded.

“I could have easily just deleted that email – it wasn’t a familiar name to me – but I read it, and I think that’s what the problem is,” Claire said.

A majority of people in those two funds have still not made an official complaint with the appropriate financial ombudsman, with corporate regulator ASIC believing many are still unaware they have been impacted.

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Do you have a story? Nick.whigham@yahooinc.com

Claire pointing to her superannuation loss in an Australian office.
Claire, who works in education, admits she isn’t a sophisticated investor. (Source: Supplied)

ASIC sent out correspondence to victims earlier this month, but there are still more than 9,000 people who have not lodged their complaint to receive compensation.

Melinda Kee is another victim and has been working with ASIC as well as the federal government as it works through the ongoing fallout and looks to shore up rules to prevent similar disasters in the future. She runs a Facebook group for victims and has built a website for anyone affected to find vital information about the advisory groups involved.

“I stepped up because it came down to who else was going to? These people are distraught… I’ve had 65-year-old men crying,” she told Yahoo Finance.

She is desperate to reach the thousands of Aussies – some of whom she believes are overseas – who appear unaware that at least some of their retirement savings have been lost.

Melinda has a lot of experience is financial markets and used to be a day trader. She was looking to shift her superannuation savings after the fund she was in at the time had gone backwards by $28,000 over the previous year.

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During a period she was off sick from work, she used iSelect to change a number of bills including, gas, electricity and health and pet insurance. It was shortly after that when she began receiving cold calls about switching her retirement savings as well.

“This wasn’t a case of investors chasing speculative returns outside the system. This happened within the regulated superannuation and financial advice framework, overseen by licensed professionals and trustees with legal fiduciary obligations,” she said.

If you moved your superannuation and think you might be impacted, you can check to see a list of trustees and super platforms that funnelled money into the collapsed funds, which might be more familiar to most victims, and for which deadlines for seeking compensation are fast approaching.

Some victims have only until March 31, 2026, to seek compensation.

ASIC has emailed people they believe unknowingly lost money. (Source: ASIC/Getty)
ASIC has emailed people they believe unknowingly lost money. (Source: ASIC/Getty)

While some early decisions have been made for a select number of victims who were moved into the collapsed funds, a vast majority, like Claire, are still waiting for their claim to be worked through.

Melinda is advocating for ‘Pay Now Recover Later’ as the government taps the broader superannuation sector to help fund compensation for victims.

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“It is not about rewarding risk-taking, it’s about restoring confidence, fairness, and accountability in a system Australians are required by law to rely on for their retirement,” she said.

This week, ASIC launched a fresh review into the practice of using lead generators to lure in superannuation investors, with more than 40 groups called out.

Lead generation is the process of identifying someone as a potential sales target and may offer a free ‘super health check’ or offer to find your lost super. They are often paid “marketing fees” by licensed financial advisers.

Super Consumers Australia is calling for a ban on lead generation for super and financial advice, along with closing the loophole that allows cold calling to offer financial advice.

The group said predatory super switching schemes had been fuelled by lead generators who had been using social media to collect people’s contact details and sell them on to third parties.

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“These schemes are highly effective, they prey on people who are just looking to do the right thing and get on top of their super,” Super Consumer Australia CEO Xavier O’Halloran said.

*Claire is a pseudonym to protect her identity

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