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U.S. Housing Finance Support At A Crossroads

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U.S. Housing Finance Support At A Crossroads

If the incoming Trump Administration picks up where it left off, the last unfinished business of the 2008 financial crisis may soon be addressed. That business? Reforming a housing finance system that has been stuck in a sort of high-functioning limbo for more than 16 years.

Housing received considerable attention in the recent election, but that focus was on increasing supply, lowering prices, and providing downpayment help. Absent was a discussion about the federal agencies and programs that ensure ready access to loans for homeownership.

The U.S. housing finance system has largely recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, when the housing market collapsed. Contributing factors in the years leading up to the crisis included unsustainable home price increases, relaxed lending requirements, and an influx of subprime mortgages. Loosened lending was enabled by an increasingly sophisticated set of finance tools—mortgage-backed securities and related derivative products—used by lenders and Wall Street firms. That dynamic led to an expansion of mortgage availability that drove unsustainable house price increases.[1]

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Rising prices led to a belief they would continue to rise, further inflating prices. All was well until prices peaked, and then declined, as high-risk borrowers found it difficult to refinance or sell to settle mortgage debts. Falling prices accelerated as default-driven homes for sale flooded the market. Weakened mortgage lenders then began defaulting on their own lines of credit. Wall Street quickly lost its appetite for risky mortgages and credit markets began to freeze. By late 2008, the seismic impacts of the U.S. housing downturn were being felt across the global economy.

In Washington D.C., policymakers authorized and executed on a series of legislative, regulatory, and operational reforms—often intended as triage-like treatments to stabilize the system—to ensure continued strong mortgage market liquidity. A complete market meltdown was prevented.

Since then, however, the system has progressed without a cohesive and comprehensive reconsideration. Instead, mortgage guarantee agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) have adapted their operations and processes to meet evolving market circumstances, but only on the margin. That could change if the incoming administration decides to continue efforts the first Trump Administration initiated in 2019 to overhaul the system.

Beyond addressing housing finance, there is also a need to expand the supply and affordability of housing by making it easier to provide more types of housing in places where people want to live. A common thread through the nation’s housing affordability crisis is the fact that the supply of homes built has been insufficient to keep up with demand. While a healthy finance system is critical, that alone is insufficient to expand the nation’s supply of housing to meet current and future needs. That said, the rest of this essay focuses on housing finance.

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Is A Bigger FHA Here To Stay?

Many of the stabilization measures enacted in response to the 2008 crisis (such as the Troubled Assets Relief Program) were wound down as the economy recovered. But that was not the case at the Federal Housing Administration, the main U.S. agency that guarantees loans made by lenders to homebuyers. FHA dramatically expanded its role as private lending rapidly receded, precisely the countercyclical role envisioned for the agency at its founding in 1934. In fact, FHA’s market share jumped from less than 4% in 2006 to a quarter of all home purchases during the crisis.

Today, the agency continues to back mortgages at elevated, though moderated, levels. Its portfolio of loan guaranties continues to grow and, according to a 2023 report issued by Arnold Ventures (which I authored), rose 171% in inflation-adjusted terms from 2007 to 2023. While a growing portfolio poses potential risks to taxpayers, loans originated since the crisis have performed much better than those made previously. FHA has improved its lending guidelines and adopted improvements such as risk-based underwriting.

Budgetarily, FHA’s single family mortgage insurance programs were projected to result in savings each year from 2000 to 2009. Premium revenues were forecast to far exceed payments on claims. However, after the 2008 crisis, it became clear loans made in those years cost (rather than saved) billions of dollars. Making matters worse, those savings that never materialized were spent elsewhere (showing the danger of mixing cash and accrual budgeting concepts).

Since then, and even with substantial increases in lending volumes, performance has been more in line with forecasts and has, at times, exceeded expectations. Based on supplemental data contained in the 2025 Budget, increasingly reliable forecasts have reflected more in savings than were realized before the crisis. Nevertheless, risks remain that could impact taxpayers in a significant economic downturn.

But FHA’s role in the housing finance system has proven beneficial during and after the financial crisis. While there is no compelling need for reform, legislative efforts to refresh the GSEs could pull FHA (and its sister agency Ginnie Mae) into the fray to ensure roles are harmonized.

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Will Fannie/Freddie Conservatorship End?

The primary function of the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is to facilitate liquidity in the U.S. mortgage finance system. They purchase home loans made by banks and other lenders—known as conforming loans since they must meet strict size and underwriting standards— and pool those loans into mortgage-backed securities, which are then sold to investors. Those securities are favored because the GSEs guarantee full principal even if the underlying mortgages default. The GSEs typically finance more than half of all mortgages originated.

The GSEs are private companies created by the U.S. government. During the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie were placed into conservatorship by their then-newly created regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. While not at that point insolvent, their earnings and capital were deteriorating as house prices fell and their capacity to absorb further losses was in doubt. A driving concern was that if they failed due to substantial defaults on their insured mortgage portfolios or an inability to issue debt to finance themselves, the crisis would have escalated dramatically.

Conservatorship is an odd legal place for any organization to reside for an extended period—with a third party (in this case FHFA) in operational control. Conservatorship was expected to last only a short time. Then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson dubbed the move a “time out” to give policymakers an interval to decide their future. But the GSEs have remained there for more than 16 years, with occasional changes to conservatorship terms. In recent years, the Biden Administration has shown little interest in resolving the matter.

If actions during the first Trump presidency are any indicator, the incoming administration will be more assertive in tackling the issue. A memorandum issued by President Trump on March 27, 2019, stated that “The lack of comprehensive housing finance reform since the financial crisis of 2008 has left taxpayers potentially exposed to future bailouts, and has left the Federal housing finance programs at the Department of Housing and Urban Development potentially overexposed to risk and with outdated operations.” The memo goes on to point out that reforms are needed “to reduce taxpayer risks, expand the private sector’s role, modernize government housing programs, and make sustainable home ownership for American families our benchmark of success.”

The Treasury Secretary was directed to develop a plan to end the conservatorship, facilitate competition in housing finance, operate the GSEs in a safe and sound manner, and ensure the government is properly compensated for any backing. Under the direction of then-Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Treasury published such a plan in September 2019 proposing both legislative and administrative reforms. FHFA and Treasury then began carrying out the parts of the plan that could be done administratively.

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Former FHFA Director Mark Calabria wrote about those actions in his 2023 book Shelter from the Storm. Plans were being made “to bring the conservatorships to an end, restructure the balance sheets, and end the illegal line of credit, while preserving stability in the mortgage market.” But those plans were pushed until after the election to avoid any market disruptions that might occur, particularly given risks posed to the economy by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consequently, some key actions were completed while others remained on the drawing board. The GSEs were allowed to build capital by retaining earnings and, in a related move, FHFA established a post-conservatorship minimum capital rule. The outgoing administration left a blueprint for reform to end the conservatorship, compensate taxpayers, and allow the GSEs to raise third-party capital.[2]

The Need For Congressional Action

While the new administration can take steps to reform and release the GSEs from conservatorship, a transformed and well-coordinated housing finance system will require legislative action as well. The activities of housing finance agencies like FHA and the GSEs should complement each other. Roles need to be clearly defined, overlap avoided, and taxpayer risks minimized.

The new Congress and incoming administration must explicitly determine those roles. While objectionable levels of risk have accrued in the past, the housing finance system has operated much more soundly in recent years. Legislation should be structured to lock in the operational and financial improvements since the financial crisis and to codify reforms to further strengthen the system.

The nation’s housing market depends on a robust and dynamic housing finance system. While maintaining the status quo follows a path of least political resistance, it will be interesting to see if a second Trump Administrations picks up its past pursuit of comprehensive reform.

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[1] For a fuller explanation of the conditions that led to the crisis, see Subprime Mortgage Crisis, by John V. Duca, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, November 22, 2013.

[2] For a detailed explanation of events during and after conservatorship see: The GSE Conservatorships: Fifteen Years Old, With No End in Sight, by former Freddie Mac CEO Donald H. Layton, September 5, 2023.

Finance

New changes to financial aid will be minor for UND students, bigger for loan borrowers in repayment

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New changes to financial aid will be minor for UND students, bigger for loan borrowers in repayment

GRAND FORKS — Student loan repayment options and federal PLUS loans are seeing the biggest changes with the implementation of the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, said the director of student finance at the University of North Dakota.

Matt Lukach said students will see minor changes, but most of the work to make the alterations will fall upon UND’s system.

“It’s going to create work on our end, though, because all these changes will be manual, so we will have a lot more work on the back end. But hopefully, our students won’t see too much of a change from past years,” he said.

On Wednesday, July 1, changes to federal student aid programs from the OBBBA went into effect. Of the changes, Luckach sees the removal of the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) loan repayment plan, the removal of the Graduate PLUS Loan Program and the alteration to the Parent PLUS Loan Program and scheduled reductions for federal loans at the undergraduate level as the most significant.

For undergraduate loans, students previously could get their full federal loan even if they were not a full-time student taking 12 credits. Following the changes, loans will be pro-rated down, depending on how many credits a student is taking. Most of UND’s undergraduate students are full-time students, Lukach said. For part-time students, UND will work to make adjustments to loan offers early so they won’t be as affected if they need to find alternative funding. UND already makes schedule reductions for Pell Grant funding.

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A big change that may affect graduate students is the removal of the federal Graduate PLUS Loan Program. Some graduate students have used it to fund living expenses and pay for shortfalls while they finish their program. Graduate borrowers who have had a PLUS loan disbursed before July 1, 2026, while enrolled in a program, can continue to borrow for three academic years or the remainder of their program, whichever is less. Newer graduate students won’t be able to get the loans, and Lukach has seen movement in the private loan sector to balance this.

“We have had a lot of traffic, a lot of movement in the private loan sector in the last year to come up with options to help fill that gap of graduate PLUS loans,” he said. “The private educational loan industry is doing a pretty good job of coming up with some really comparable options to that loan.”

The Parent PLUS Loan Program won’t be going away, but it will be capped. Eligible parents can borrow a maximum of $20,000 per aid year per dependent student. In the past there was no cap, but Lukach said there wasn’t a high percentage of parents borrowing more than $20,000.

In Lukach’s opinion, the financial aid changes will be minor to current and incoming students. The bigger changes, he said, are in student loan repayment.

The SAVE plan, PAYE (Pay As You Earn) plan and the ICR (Income-Contingent Repayment) plan all are being phased out. Loan servicers are reaching out to current borrowers notifying them they have to choose different plans, though they can pay through the ICR plan until July 1, 2028. Their other options include a new tiered standard repayment plan and the new Repayment Assistance Plan.

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RAP allows borrowers to pay monthly payments of 1-10% of the borrower’s income based on their adjusted gross income, with a minimum monthly payment of $10.

“I honestly don’t know what the effects of these new plans will be yet, because we’ve not heard from anybody, and they just went into effect,” Lukach said. “I’m sure we’ll see some chatter in the next few months on that (RAP) to see if it looks good, bad, the same. It’s hard to tell if it will be a benefit or a detriment to those people who are on the SAVE plan. We’re real early in this.”

New borrowers who borrow loans on or after July 1, 2026, have the options of the new tiered repayment plan or RAP.

Same as any other year, Lukach offers students this advice: Make a financial plan and know what is needed.

UND also has a monthly payment plan to cover gaps between a student’s charges and their financial aid, something Lukach has noticed students use more over the years. Overall, he’s seeing students be more fiscally responsible.

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“It’s a good sign,” he said. “It means we have really high-quality students at the University of North Dakota, which I really, really love.”

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This new bill hopes to ‘put the brakes’ on financial fraud targeting older Americans

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This new bill hopes to ‘put the brakes’ on financial fraud targeting older Americans

A new bipartisan bill making its way through Congress aims to protect seniors and other vulnerable people from scams by allowing some financial institutions the ability to pause transaction requests while they investigate potential fraud.

The Financial Exploitation Prevention Act would give open-end investment companies, including mutual funds, the ability to pause redemption requests from people 65 and older or people with disabilities when the institution believes financial fraud or exploitation is at play.

“Financial exploitation is a huge problem in this country,” said Nina Kohn, an elder law expert at the Syracuse University College of Law. Artificial intelligence is also helping fraudsters become more sophisticated and making it harder for people to avoid scams, she added.

Financial abuse cost older victims nearly $2.4 billion in 2024, according to incidents reported to the Federal Trade Commission. The agency noted in its annual report that the estimate of total losses include “only a fraction” of older adults harmed by fraud due to underreporting.

Three people accused of being behind a major romance fraud scheme targeting older adults were indicted by the Department of Justice in May, part of a series of cases that have charged 11 others from the U.S. and Ghana with wire fraud and money laundering.

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“The concern is, in part, that individuals may lose their life savings,” Kohn said.

“So financial institutions and entities that are holding individuals’ money can be empowered to help put the brakes on scams by delaying disbursement to a suspected victim,” she added.

READ MORE: As losses from scams surge, Congress asks telecoms to do more to prevent them

The bill passed the House in a 414-2 vote last month, while a similar bill resides in the Senate, though it’s not clear if or when the banking committee under that chamber will consider the legislation.

The overwhelming support for this bill shows “there’s broad agreement that protecting seniors from financial exploitation shouldn’t be a partisan issue,” said Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., one of the bill’s co-sponsors, in an emailed statement to PBS News.

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The legislation gives these financial institutions additional tools to “recognize when something isn’t right and help stop financial abuse before the damage is done.”

Here’s what to know about the bill.

What would the bill do?

The bill would allow a financial institution that manages investments, such as mutual funds and some exchange-traded funds, to temporarily halt requests to access funds that it “reasonably believes” might be exploitative.

The bill focuses on requests from two specific groups:

  • Someone age 65 or older
  • Any adult the financial institution “reasonably believes has a mental or physical impairment that renders the individual unable to protect” their own interests.

It doesn’t require the institutions to carry out the pauses or investigate potential fraud. But there is a proposed framework for delays. The institution can put a hold on the request for up to 15 business days while companies notify a client-provided adult contact that the customer may be the victim of financial exploitation. There are steps an institution can take to extend the hold for another 10 days. A court, state regulator or another administrative authority could also extend the delay.

The bill does not apply to other financial institutions, like banks or credit unions. It does require the Securities and Exchange Commission to submit a report to Congress with recommendations on how to further reduce financial fraud targeting these adults within a year of enacting these measures.

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The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, already allows brokers and money managers to temporarily freeze requests that are from older adults who may be the victims of exploitation.About half the states also have laws on the books that allow banks and sometimes credit unions to do the same.

This federal legislation “fills a gap,” Kohn said, by covering investment funds that are self-managed.

How this bill could help

The Department of Justice identified more than 1 million victims of all forms of elder financial exploitation, fraud, neglect and abuse between July 2024 and June 2025. Offenders allegedly stole or attempted to steal $2.3 billion, according to the department’s latest annual report to Congress.

There are no national reporting standards for how often financial institutions detect exploitation, and when they do, how often they put holds on accounts, said Marti DeLiema, associate professor at the University of Minnesota School of Social Work.

WATCH: How human trafficking victims are forced to run ‘pig butchering’ investment scams

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But some state-level data does exist. In Minnesota, of the 286 cases referred for investigation in 2022, temporary holds were implemented in a quarter of them, according to a study DeLiema co-authored.

Half of the banks who responded to a 2024 survey from the American Bankers Association Foundation said they had delayed disbursements or refused or held transactions when they suspected exploitation.

And more than 85% of banks in states without hold laws said they would find them beneficial, the survey found.

“Financial institutions are seeing this stuff is happening. They want to help,” DeLiema said. Sometimes, a conversation from the bank or law enforcement is enough to pull the victim from the scam, she said.

Other times, that’s not enough.

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In those cases, temporary holds can be used as a “last resort” to keep the person and their money safe.

Concerns and questions about autonomy

For Kohn, it’s not clear whether the pauses proposed by the bill will prevent the exploitation entirely or just delay it. Putting holds on customers’ accounts also puts financial institutions at risk of degrading trust with their clients.

While 43% of banks in the ABA Foundation survey said they found state hold laws useful in preventing financial exploitation among older people, 45% also said customers reacted negatively to those holds. Nearly 17% said customers closed their accounts after a delay, and 2.4% said the hold has been challenged in court.

Another concern is someone’s self-determination. Allowing financial institutions to stop customers from accessing their own money may verge into limiting people’s ability to make choices about their lives and their own funds, Kohn said.

“The question is: Is that restriction on self-determination justified?” she said.

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Giving people the opportunity to make their own decisions, even bad ones, is called “dignity of risk,” a term often used in disability studies.

For example, people are allowed to take their retirement funds and spend it at a casino, DeLiema said, so “why would we stop them from participating in a scam?”

“The answer has to be: The people on the other end are criminally victimizing these individuals. They’re using deception, they’re lying,” she said.

That exploitation leads victims to believe they’re in a relationship with their scammer, or that they’re rescuing a grandchild, or that their money is being invested in cryptocurrencies, she said.

With the rise of deepfakes and other AI-driven technology being used in scams, “all this is going to get a lot worse,” she added.

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WATCH: How to recognize and block AI-powered scam attempts

It’s reasonable for policymakers to be concerned about exploitation among older adults in particular, because they tend to lose more money than younger adults and have less time to recover financially, Kohn said.

But she also worries that legislation based on age may perpetuate stereotypes against older people.

If financial holds are good policy, why limit their application, she said.

“I think that speaks to our willingness as a society to curtail the self-determination and financial independence of older adults and people with disabilities to a degree that we are not comfortable curtailing the self-determination and financial independence of other adults,” she said.

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From Love Island to Precious Metals, Prediction Markets Are Changing Finance | PYMNTS.com

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From Love Island to Precious Metals, Prediction Markets Are Changing Finance | PYMNTS.com

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on growth across new financial products.

The industry’s product menu already stretches from political elections and World Cup matches to weather events. It now includes reality television, with Kalshi’s first markets tied to “Love Island USA” helping to more than double its weekly active female user base during part of June, illustrating how easily an exchange can turn an existing online fandom into a new trading constituency.

Prediction markets aren’t done there. Kalshi is reportedly in advanced discussions with regulators about expanding its perpetual futures business beyond cryptocurrencies into gold, other metals, foreign exchange and energy. Polymarket, meanwhile, has reportedly filed applications that would help it offer margin trading to customers in the United States.

Prediction markets, it would seem, are outgrowing the category that made them famous. They are evolving from event-based content into a new distribution layer for a potential next-generation of retail derivatives.

See also: Robinhood’s Memecoin Boom Shows Crypto’s Retail Market Is No Joke

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Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Product Portfolio, Not a Betting Category

The event contract services business is evolving from predicting discrete events to trading continuous exposure to economically important assets. That transition is occurring just as the industry’s regulatory position is becoming more complicated.

A federal judge this week rejected Kalshi’s attempt to prevent New York from applying state gambling laws to its sports contracts. Last month, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and its chairman, Michael Selig, challenging a decision to let Kalshi and crypto exchange Coinbase list perpetual futures.

The result is a market in which product demand may be the easy part. The harder question is whether prediction platforms can develop a compliance system broad enough to support everything from television finales to leveraged commodity trades.

The Love Island contracts, for example, expose the prediction market category’s fundamental surveillance problem. Television episodes are produced before they are broadcast, meaning cast members, production staff, editors and others can possess information unavailable to the public. Similar informational asymmetries arise around economic announcements, court decisions, corporate events and government actions. The more subjects a platform makes tradable, the more types of potential insiders it must identify.

Goldman Sachs prohibited employees from participating in financial and political event contracts that could create actual or perceived conflicts involving the bank, its clients or the financial industry, particularly when workers could possess confidential corporate or macroeconomic information.

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The Senate unanimously adopted a rule in April prohibiting senators, staff and officers from participating in prediction markets. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs followed this month with an executive order prohibiting state executive branch employees from using nonpublic government information for prediction market profits.

Read also: Prediction Markets Turn Uncertainty Into a Business Model

A Short History of Prediction Market Products and U.S. Regulation

Despite all the action, prediction markets began as relatively constrained experiments in information aggregation. The CFTC said market operators have sought agency guidance since the early 1990s, and the first prediction market was designated as a federally regulated contract market in 2004. The central idea was that putting money behind a forecast could aggregate dispersed information more effectively than polls, surveys or expert opinion.

The model remained small partly because regulators treated event contracts as exceptional products. Contracts tied to economic indicators, elections or entertainment did not fit comfortably within either traditional futures regulation or state gambling frameworks.

Polymarket demonstrated the potential and limitations of operating outside that system. In 2022, the CFTC ordered the company to pay a $1.4 million penalty and wind down markets that violated federal derivatives laws. Polymarket later returned to the U.S. by acquiring federally licensed exchange and clearing infrastructure, creating a regulated domestic operation that is separate from its crypto-based international platform.

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PYMNTS reported in September that when the CFTC issued a no-action letter regarding event contracts in response to a request from two businesses owned by Polymarket, it in essence gave Polymarket a regulatory green light to re-enter the U.S. market.

The industry’s short history, in other words, is not primarily a progression from one betting topic to another. It is a progression from restricted forecasting experiment to full-scale exchange infrastructure. That direction of travel appears to be continuing.

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