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The many challenges facing Jay Powell as he tries to pull off a soft landing

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The many challenges facing Jay Powell as he tries to pull off a soft landing

Jay Powell argued this week that the Fed is not “behind” as it starts a cycle of interest rate cuts.

His main challenge in the coming months is to keep that narrative intact if the job market keeps cooling and the economy deteriorates.

“We don’t think we’re behind,” the Federal Reserve chairman said during a Wednesday press conference following a decision to cut rates for the first time since 2020. “We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind.”

Some on Wall Street still have their doubts, arguing the jumbo 50 basis point move announced this week is an attempt to play catch up and that the path ahead for rate cuts may be too shallow.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington on Wednesday. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The central bank is being “reactionary” instead of proactive, said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco, who pointed to the fact that Powell acknowledged the Fed might have cut rates in July if its policymakers had seen July’s employment figures first.

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Those figures, released just two days after the Fed’s July 31 meeting, showed that the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3%, stoking concerns the Fed had waited too long.

The rate dropped to 4.2% in August, but another rise in the coming months could bring those same fears back.

“It’s essential for Fed policymakers to adopt a robust forward-looking framework and abandon data dependency,” Daco said. “Unfortunately, that’s not the case so far.”

There remain “real risks” that a soft landing for the US economy may not be achieved especially if the labor market deteriorates, Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told Yahoo Finance Thursday.

“Chair Powell is trying to get ahead of that…but there is always the risk they have been a little too slow in doing this.”

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Fed officials this week predicted the unemployment rate would tick up to 4.4% this year and hold at that level through next year.

Another hurdle for Powell is that Wall Street expects more future cuts than predicted by central bank policymakers, who this week estimated two more smaller cuts of 25 basis points through the rest of 2024 followed by four smaller cuts in 2025.

One Wall Street firm that came out with a more aggressive forecast was BofA Global Research, which raised its call for rate cuts during the remainder of this year to 75 basis points.

JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli also said he is still expecting a faster pace of rate cuts than the Fed consensus.

Feroli expects a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting in early November contingent on further softening in the two jobs reports between now and then.

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Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, said the Fed’s predicted path is too slow for an economy where the job market has normalized and inflation is likely to reach the Fed’s 2% target in the first quarter of 2025.

Tilley thus expects 200 basis points of cuts next year — double the Fed’s projection — and for rates to come down to neutral – the level that neither boosts nor slows growth — by next fall.

“It’s the longer-term path that matters more, and here the Fed is still a bit behind in that the median expectation is for just 100 bps of cuts next year,” he said.

But the Fed expects the economy to continue to show strength, aligning with their shallower rate cut predictions. Officials see the economy expanding at 2% this year, roughly inline with the 2.1% previously forecast, and coasting at that level the next few years.

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And the goal is to preserve that economic growth without re-stoking inflation. Officials predict inflation will end the year at 2.6%, down from 2.8% previously, before falling to 2.2% next year.

No matter what happens, Powell will also have to manage signs of internal division over the path ahead.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee is almost evenly split on the number of additional rate cuts expected this year, with seven policymakers favoring one additional 25 basis point rate cut before year end and nine members favoring 50 basis points of additional easing.

Two policymakers expect no more rate cuts.

That path implies several officials could have supported a 25 basis point cut this week but decided to err on the side of caution and not regret further deterioration in the job market.

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Fed governor Michelle Bowman even voted against the 50 basis point cut, arguing instead for a smaller quarter point cut. Her dissent was the first for the Fed since 2005.

“The Fed chair is now seen to have significant influence over the FOMC as he managed to convince most officials that front-loading cuts was optimal,” said EY’s economist Daco.

“The bargain is probably that policymakers may be more resistant to rapid easing at the next two policy meetings.”

Bostjancic, the chief economist at Nationwide, said she believes the Fed should cut another 50 basis points at its next meeting in November, even though that is not her firm’s forecast.

But to cut by another 50 “you would really have to have consensus” among Fed officials. “It’s a hurdle and you would have to have broad agreement.”

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Incredible year-long spending experiment exposes mistakes you’re probably making

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Incredible year-long spending experiment exposes mistakes you’re probably making
The forthcoming book follows her journey of one year without buying anything new and how it changed her relationship with money and her self-worth. (Source: Emma Edwards/Instagram)

Financial behaviour specialist Emma Edwards, founder of The Broke Generation, is sharing her radical personal finance experiment: a whole year without buying a single item of clothing.

No new outfits, no second-hand finds, not even rentals. What began as a no-buy challenge soon became a powerful lesson in self-worth, resilience, and the surprising freedom of living with less.

In the exclusive extract below, Emma shares the six buying patterns we get trapped into thinking we actually need.

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The impact of our consumption habits creates an environment where we’re cornered from every angle. We have a collection of clothes that don’t work together, don’t make us feel good and don’t allow us to express ourselves the way we want to, which leaves us looking externally for what we’re not getting. The problem is, when we look externally, we buy more and more of the same.

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Unravelling that idea of what can happen when we’re in a ‘yes’ state, a state of openness to consumption even though our intentions might suggest otherwise, got me curious about some of the unhelpful buying cycles I’d been stuck in. I really leaned into understanding how I ended up with the wardrobe I currently had, and what I could learn from the mistakes I made over and over again.

I realised that if I could establish the mistakes I was making and the ways I was buying the wrong things, I’d stop feeling compelled to buy more and more over time. Here are some of the patterns I uncovered in my wardrobe, and that I’ve seen in others’ too.

Once I liked something in one colour (often black), I’d giddily run out and buy it in another colour, thinking I was making some kind of ultra-smart decision and capitalising on what I loved. I’m going to give you a piece of advice now that I hope you’ll remember for many years. If you ever utter the words ‘I’m going to go and get this in another colour’ – run. It’s a trap. You probably won’t like the other colour, and it’ll just sit in your wardrobe and collect dust.

There are certain things in my wardrobe that I struggled to wear confidently outside of one specific outfit silo. Usually, this is a sure-fire sign that I’d bought it in a very specific context, like copying or replicating an outfit I’d seen someone else wear.

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Financing Sports’ Future: Private Credit Steps Into the Arena

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Financing Sports’ Future: Private Credit Steps Into the Arena

Today’s guest column is by Joseph Glatt, co-chair of the global Private Credit Group at Paul, Weiss.

The business of sports has evolved into one of the most sophisticated capital markets in the world. Franchises that once relied on wealthy patrons now operate as global enterprises with complex balance sheets, diversified revenue streams and brand portfolios that span continents. Behind the scenes, a quiet transformation is taking place. Private credit has become the financing engine powering the next phase of the industry’s growth.

For decades, the financial architecture of sports was narrow. Teams depended on a mix of owner equity, bank loans and broadcast advances. That model worked when sports was seasonal, media rights were centralized, and stadiums were used a few dozen times a year.

Today the business is more complicated. Digital engagement has replaced ticket sales as the primary growth driver, broadcast rights are fragmented across platforms, and venues have become year-round entertainment ecosystems. Private credit brings structure, speed and sophistication to a business that is increasingly complex and ever-evolving.

The appeal is obvious. Sports franchises have matured from passion assets into performance assets. Media rights, sponsorships, premium seating, licensing and real estate all provide recurring cash flows—a profile that looks less like entertainment and more like infrastructure. For credit investors searching for yield with tangible downside protection, it’s a natural fit.

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What distinguishes the current wave of sports lending is its focus on assets. Lenders are financing discrete pieces of the ecosystem rather than entire teams—broadcast receivables, naming rights, arena redevelopment or ancillary real estate. A stadium backed by long-term contracts and naming agreements can support senior debt that behaves much like project finance. The economics are stable, the security is visible, and the exposure is detached from game outcomes. It’s a structural rather than sentimental approach to sports finance.

This shift has attracted institutional capital on a scale that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Pension funds, insurers and global asset managers now view sports as a legitimate component of their private credit portfolios. The logic is straightforward. The sector offers infrastructure-like cash flows with entertainment-driven growth. European football clubs have refinanced legacy debt with private credit facilities. North American franchises have used direct lending to fund media rights and working-capital needs. Even emerging leagues and women’s sports organizations are turning to private lenders to build facilities and extend reach. The flow of capital is both a cause and a consequence of the sector’s institutionalization.

The sophistication of these transactions reflects a growing recognition that sports carries unique risks. Revenues can fluctuate with team performance or media cycles, and valuations can move with public sentiment.

The best lenders manage this through structure rather than pricing. Deals often include covenants tied to attendance, sponsorship renewals or season-ticket deposits. Some of them link pricing to revenue performance or secure cross-collateralization between real estate and media income. The emphasis is on aligning capital with the rhythm of the underlying business, not imposing a one-size-fits-all template.

The opportunity extends beyond the professional leagues that dominate headlines. Collegiate athletics, youth sports and ancillary service providers are entering a commercial era of their own.

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The legalization of name, image and likeness rights has turned college programs into fully commercial enterprises that now require working capital, facilities financing and sponsorship advances. Private lenders can design structures suited to that environment—secured against receivables, ticket income or local partnerships—where traditional financing models fall short.

Youth and amateur sports tell a similar story. The sector generates tens of billions of dollars in annual spending, yet capital formation remains fragmented. Financing of complexes, tournaments and training facilities have become scalable credit opportunities, driven by durable demand rather than speculation.

Real estate has also become inseparable from the business of sports. Stadiums are now anchors of mixed-use developments that include hotels, retail and housing. Teams are monetizing their brands across hospitality, content and data ventures. That convergence between physical and intangible assets creates a dual source of collateral. A stadium’s concrete and steel can be valued like infrastructure, while its media contracts and licensing revenue resemble corporate cash flows. Private credit thrives in precisely this intersection, where structure can integrate both sides of the balance sheet.

This new market is maturing quickly. The challenge now is discipline. Not every team or league deserves institutional credit. The fundamentals must be right: diversified revenue, credible governance and transparent capital structures. The most capable lenders operate more like strategic partners than passive financiers. They help management teams optimize balance sheets, monetize non-core assets and think creatively about liquidity. The value in these relationships lies in partnership, not just pricing.

Looking ahead, the next decade of sports capital will likely involve consolidation and securitization. Portfolios of sports-backed loans may be packaged into rated vehicles, widening access to institutional investors. Cross-border ownership will further globalize the ecosystem, blending European clubs, American franchises and Middle Eastern sovereign funds into a single capital network. That will require not just financial innovation but also regulatory fluency and geopolitical awareness.

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Private credit’s entry into sports is not a passing trend. It marks a structural evolution in how capital supports one of the world’s most powerful industries. Sports is now a platform business, and platform businesses demand flexible, sophisticated financing.

The investors leading this transformation think not in seasons but in cycles. They understand that the scoreboard measures only part of the game. The real competition is for capital efficiency, and those who master it will define the future of sports finance.

Glatt has over 25 years of experience in private practice and in-house at one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, with a particular focus on complex transactions, strategic product innovation and capital raising for asset management firms and financial institutions.

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Mahopac to require personal financial literacy for high school graduation. Will NY follow?

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Mahopac to require personal financial literacy for high school graduation. Will NY follow?
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Mahopac School District has become the first in New York to make personal financial literacy a graduation requirement, following a statewide push to strengthen personal financial education, according to the district.

The initiative, adopted by the Mahopac School Board on Nov. 18, aligns with a recent state Education Department proposal that would require personal finance instruction for all K-12 public school students.

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Under the program, Seal of Financial Literacy, Mahopac students beginning with the Class of 2028 must complete a series of courses and a capstone project to graduate.   

The goal is to equip students with essential life skills at a time when financial decisions are increasingly complex and the cost of living continues to rise, Mahopac School District interim Superintendent Frank Miele said in a statement.

“Learning about money is the path to success for every student,” said Miele. “When our students understand saving, spending, investing, managing credit, and planning for their futures, we empower them to step into adulthood with confidence.”

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What’s included in the Seal of Financial Literacy?

Starting with the Class of 2028, Mahopac graduates will be required to earn the Seal of Financial Literacy to receive their diplomas. Students in grades 8-12 will learn personal finance concepts through integrated units in courses such as English, math, social studies and economics. Seniors will complete a capstone project in which they develop a personal financial plan based on a post-high school scenario, whether attending college, entering the workforce, starting a business or serving in the miliary.

“It’s not radical for an 18-year-old to think about their long-term career goals and retirement plan,” said Tanner McCracken, a Mahopac School Board trustee who spearheaded the initiative. “Making personal financial literacy a graduation requirement has been a dream of mine since I was first elected to the school board at 20 years old. It’s something my generation is eager to learn, and I’m proud we got it done.”

More than 475 students in the Class of 2026 and 2027 will qualify for the program before it becomes a universal requirement in 2028, according to McCracken.

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Local initiative precedes proposed statewide financial literacy mandate

Mahopac’s move comes as the state Education Department is considering adding personal finance education to graduation requirements.

Under the proposal, personal finance instruction would be required in middle and high schools starting in 2026-27 school year and expanded to elementary schools in 2027.

Schools would have flexibility to teach the material through integrated coursework, stand-alone classes or career and technical education programs. Instructional topics include budgeting and money management, credit and debt management, earning income, risk management and saving and investing.        

The proposal is currently open for public comment through Jan. 19, with the Board of Regents expected to make a decision in March.

Helu Wang covers economic growth, real estate and education for The Journal News/lohud and USA Today Network. Reach her at hwang@gannett.com and follow her @helu.wangny on Instagram.

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