Finance
The many challenges facing Jay Powell as he tries to pull off a soft landing
Jay Powell argued this week that the Fed is not “behind” as it starts a cycle of interest rate cuts.
His main challenge in the coming months is to keep that narrative intact if the job market keeps cooling and the economy deteriorates.
“We don’t think we’re behind,” the Federal Reserve chairman said during a Wednesday press conference following a decision to cut rates for the first time since 2020. “We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind.”
Some on Wall Street still have their doubts, arguing the jumbo 50 basis point move announced this week is an attempt to play catch up and that the path ahead for rate cuts may be too shallow.
The central bank is being “reactionary” instead of proactive, said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco, who pointed to the fact that Powell acknowledged the Fed might have cut rates in July if its policymakers had seen July’s employment figures first.
Those figures, released just two days after the Fed’s July 31 meeting, showed that the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3%, stoking concerns the Fed had waited too long.
The rate dropped to 4.2% in August, but another rise in the coming months could bring those same fears back.
“It’s essential for Fed policymakers to adopt a robust forward-looking framework and abandon data dependency,” Daco said. “Unfortunately, that’s not the case so far.”
There remain “real risks” that a soft landing for the US economy may not be achieved especially if the labor market deteriorates, Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told Yahoo Finance Thursday.
“Chair Powell is trying to get ahead of that…but there is always the risk they have been a little too slow in doing this.”
Fed officials this week predicted the unemployment rate would tick up to 4.4% this year and hold at that level through next year.
Another hurdle for Powell is that Wall Street expects more future cuts than predicted by central bank policymakers, who this week estimated two more smaller cuts of 25 basis points through the rest of 2024 followed by four smaller cuts in 2025.
One Wall Street firm that came out with a more aggressive forecast was BofA Global Research, which raised its call for rate cuts during the remainder of this year to 75 basis points.
JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli also said he is still expecting a faster pace of rate cuts than the Fed consensus.
Feroli expects a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting in early November contingent on further softening in the two jobs reports between now and then.
Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, said the Fed’s predicted path is too slow for an economy where the job market has normalized and inflation is likely to reach the Fed’s 2% target in the first quarter of 2025.
Tilley thus expects 200 basis points of cuts next year — double the Fed’s projection — and for rates to come down to neutral – the level that neither boosts nor slows growth — by next fall.
“It’s the longer-term path that matters more, and here the Fed is still a bit behind in that the median expectation is for just 100 bps of cuts next year,” he said.
Signs of division
But the Fed expects the economy to continue to show strength, aligning with their shallower rate cut predictions. Officials see the economy expanding at 2% this year, roughly inline with the 2.1% previously forecast, and coasting at that level the next few years.
And the goal is to preserve that economic growth without re-stoking inflation. Officials predict inflation will end the year at 2.6%, down from 2.8% previously, before falling to 2.2% next year.
No matter what happens, Powell will also have to manage signs of internal division over the path ahead.
The Fed’s rate-setting committee is almost evenly split on the number of additional rate cuts expected this year, with seven policymakers favoring one additional 25 basis point rate cut before year end and nine members favoring 50 basis points of additional easing.
Two policymakers expect no more rate cuts.
That path implies several officials could have supported a 25 basis point cut this week but decided to err on the side of caution and not regret further deterioration in the job market.
Fed governor Michelle Bowman even voted against the 50 basis point cut, arguing instead for a smaller quarter point cut. Her dissent was the first for the Fed since 2005.
“The Fed chair is now seen to have significant influence over the FOMC as he managed to convince most officials that front-loading cuts was optimal,” said EY’s economist Daco.
“The bargain is probably that policymakers may be more resistant to rapid easing at the next two policy meetings.”
Bostjancic, the chief economist at Nationwide, said she believes the Fed should cut another 50 basis points at its next meeting in November, even though that is not her firm’s forecast.
But to cut by another 50 “you would really have to have consensus” among Fed officials. “It’s a hurdle and you would have to have broad agreement.”
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HOLYOKE — The City Council has advanced plans to create a finance and administration department, voting to send proposed changes to a subcommittee for further review.
The move follows guidance from the state Division of Local Services aimed at strengthening the city’s internal cash controls, defining clear lines of accountability, and making sure staff have the appropriate education and skill level for their financial roles.
On Tuesday, Councilor Meg Magrath-Smith, who filed the order, said the council needed to change some wording about qualifications based on advice from the human resources department before sending it to the ordinance committee for review.
The committee will discuss and vote on the matter before it can head back to the full City Council for a vote. It meets next Tuesday. The next council meeting is scheduled for Jan. 20.
On Monday, Mayor Joshua Garcia said in his inaugural address that he plans to continue advancing his Municipal Finance Modernization Act.
Last spring, Garcia introduced two budget plans: one showing the current $180 million cost of running the city, and another projecting savings if Holyoke adopted the finance act.
Key proposed changes include realigning departments to meet modern needs, renaming positions and reassigning duties, fixing problems found in decades of audits, and using technology to improve workflow and service.
Garcia said the plan aims to also make government more efficient and accountable by boosting oversight of the mayor and finance departments, requiring audits of all city functions, enforcing penalties for policy violations, and adding fraud protections with stronger reporting.
Other steps included changing the city treasurer from an elected to an appointed position, a measure approved in a special election last January.
Additionally, the city would adopt a financial management policies manual, create a consolidated Finance Department and hire a chief administrative and financial officer to handle forecasting, capital planning and informed decision-making.
Garcia said that the state has suggested creating the CAFO position for almost 20 years and called on the City Council to pass the reform before the end of this fiscal year, so that it can be in place by July 1.
In a previous interview, City Council President Tessa Murphy-Romboletti said nine votes were needed to adopt the financial reform.
She also said past problems stemmed from a lack of proper systems and checks, an issue the city has dealt with since the 1970s.
The mayor would choose this officer, and the City Council will approve the appointment, she said.
In October, the City Council narrowly rejected the finance act in an 8-5 vote.
Supporters ― Michael Sullivan, Israel Rivera, Jenny Rivera, Murphy-Romboletti, Anderson Burgos, former Councilor Kocayne Givner, Patti Devine and Magrath-Smith ― said the city needs modernization and greater transparency.
Opponents ― Howard Greaney Jr., Linda Vacon, former Councilors David Bartley, Kevin Jourdain and Carmen Ocasio — said a qualified treasurer should be appointed first.
Vacon said then the treasurer’s office was “a mess,” and that the city should “fix” one department before “mixing it with another.”
The City Council also clashed over fixes, as the state stopped sending millions in monthly aid because the city hadn’t finished basic financial paperwork for three years.
The main problem came from delays in financial reports from the treasurer’s office.
Holyoke had a history of late filings. For six of the past eight years, the city delayed its required annual financial report, and five times in the past, the state withheld aid.
Council disputes over job descriptions, salaries and reforms also stalled progress.
In November, millions in state aid began flowing back to Holyoke after the city made some progress in closing out its books.
The state had withheld nearly $29 million for four months but even with aid restored, Holyoke still faces big financial problems, the Division of Local Services said.
Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026.
You get your W-2 in January and realize you either owe thousands in taxes or get a massive refund. Both mean your withholding was wrong all year.
Most service members set their tax withholding once during in-processing and never look at it again. Life changes. You get married, have kids, buy a house or pick up a second job. Your tax situation changes, but your withholding stays the same.
Adjusting your withholding takes five minutes and can save you from owing the IRS or giving the government an interest-free loan all year.
Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator First
Before changing anything, run your numbers through the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator at www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator. The calculator asks about your filing status, income, current withholding, deductions and credits. It tells you whether you need to adjust.
The calculator considers multiple jobs, spouse income and other factors that affect your tax bill. Running it takes about 10 minutes and prevents you from withholding too much or too little.
Read More: The Cost of Skipping Sick Call: How Active-Duty Service Members Can Protect Future VA Claims
Changing Withholding in myPay (Most Services)
Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force and Marine Corps members use myPay at mypay.dfas.mil. Log in and click Federal Withholding. Click the yellow pencil icon to edit.
The page lets you enter information about multiple jobs, change dependents, add additional income, make deductions or withhold extra tax. You can see when the changes take effect on the blue bar at the top of the page.
Changes typically show up on your next pay statement. If you make changes early in the month, they might appear on your mid-month paycheck. If you make them later, expect them on the end-of-month check.
State tax withholding works differently. DFAS can only withhold for states with signed agreements. Changes require submitting DD Form 2866 through myPay or by mail. Not all states allow DFAS to withhold state tax.
Changing Withholding in Direct Access (Coast Guard)
Coast Guard members use Direct Access at hcm.direct-access.uscg.mil. The system processes changes the same way as myPay. Log in, navigate to tax withholding and update your information.
Coast Guard members can also submit written requests using IRS Form W-4. Mail completed forms to the Pay and Personnel Center in Topeka, Kansas, or submit them through your Personnel and Administration office.
Read More: Here’s Why January Is the Best Time to File Your VA Disability Claim
When to Adjust Withholding
Check your withholding when major life events happen. Marriage or divorce changes your filing status. Having kids adds dependents. Buying a house affects deductions. A spouse starting or stopping work changes household income.
Military-specific events matter, too. Deploying to a combat zone makes some pay tax-free. PCS moves change state tax situations. Separation from service means losing military income but potentially gaining civilian income.
Check at the start of each year, even if your circumstances seemingly stayed the same. Tax laws change. Brackets adjust for inflation. Your situation might be different even if it seems the same.
The Balance
Withholding too little means owing taxes in April plus potential penalties. Withholding too much means getting a refund but losing access to that money all year.
Some people like big refunds and treat it like forced savings. Others would rather have the money in each paycheck to pay bills, invest or set aside in normal savings.
Neither approach is wrong. What matters is that your withholding matches your tax situation and your preference for how you receive your money.
Run the estimator. Adjust your withholding. Check it annually. This simple process prevents tax surprises.
Previously In This series:
Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees
Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements
Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?
Part 4: This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise
Stay on Top of Your Veteran Benefits
Military benefits are always changing. Keep up with everything from pay to health care by subscribing to Military.com, and get access to up-to-date pay charts and more with all latest benefits delivered straight to your inbox.
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