The stock market climbed to all-time highs, with the S&P 500 setting a closing high of 5,762.48 on Monday. For the week, the S&P rose 0.2% to end at 5,751.07. The index is now up 20.6% year to date and up 60.4% from its October 12, 2022 .
On Friday, we learned the U.S. economy created a healthy 254,000 net new jobs in September. While the number confirms that the labor market isn’t falling apart, the pace of net job creation in this economic cycle.
One labor market indicator that’s been drawing more attention lately is the . In addition to measuring those hired into newly created jobs, this metric also captures those hired into existing jobs vacated by quitters, fired workers, and others. It’s been trending lower, and it .
According to the report, employers hired 5.32 million workers in August. While hires far exceed the 1.61 million people laid off during the period, the hiring rate — the number of hires as a percentage of the employed workforce — has fallen to 3.1%, matching the lowest level of the current economic cycle.
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As we’ve been discussing , the layoff rate has , trending at around 1%, which is below prepandemic levels. That’s a good thing.
But with , we should be at least a little wary about resting on the economy’s low layoff laurels.
“The hiring rate turns BEFORE layoffs,” Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta explained in a research note on Tuesday.
When you think about how well-managed companies operate, this makes sense.
Managers know that a hiring freeze isn’t great news
When the economic tides begin to go out, companies usually don’t go from hiring people one month to immediately sending workers to the unemployment office in the next month.
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Unless you’re facing a major business or economic calamity, you probably don’t want to take a hatchet to the headcount. Because what if business activity quickly turns around and you need those workers?
For starters, companies can reduce or freeze hiring, which means not filling new job openings or backfilling roles vacated by former employees. It’s a relatively easy way to keep expenses contained.
If challenges persist, then layoffs could be the next option.
It’s worth mentioning that layoff activity does not need to increase for the unemployment rate to rise. Think about it. Even when the economy is booming, — but many will quickly go back to work if hiring activity is strong. If the same number of people get laid off into an economy with weakening hiring activity, then more jobseekers will not be able to get back to work, and unemployment rises.
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Stay vigilant
The JOLTS survey — which provides data on job openings, hiring activity, layoffs, and quits — can be helpful in predicting what’s to come for the major headline economic metrics like net job creation, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
For example, when the posted by employers is high and rising, then you can expect payroll employment to rise and the unemployment rate to fall or stay low. An could be a reflection of worker confidence in a labor market with increasingly competitive wages, which is a .
Today, with but the layoff rate still depressed, the JOLTS metric to watch right now may be the falling hiring rate.
The question now is whether the economy, , will develop in a way that helps stabilize or improve the hiring rate. Friday’s news that the U.S. continues to create jobs at a healthy pace is encouraging.
And to be crystal clear, most metrics point to a strong economy that continues to grow at a healthy clip. In fact, the hiring rate today is higher than where it was during much of the 2009-2020 economic expansion. Our discussion today is not about sounding alarms. However, we should always be mindful of the fact that . And those downturns often come with early warning signs.
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Reviewing the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:
The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the report released Friday, U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs in September. It was the 45th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.
Total payroll employment is at a record 159.1 million jobs, up 6.8 million from the prepandemic high.
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.1% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.
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Wage growth ticks up. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, up from the 0.5% pace in August. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 4.0%.
Job openings rise. According to the , employers had 8.04 million job openings in August, up from 7.71 million in July. While this remains slightly above prepandemic levels, it’s from the March 2022 high of 12.18 million.
During the period, there were 7.12 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.13 job openings per unemployed person. Once a sign of , this telling metric is now below prepandemic levels.
Layoffs remain depressed. Employers laid off 1.61 million people in August. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.0% of total employment. This metric continues to trend near pre-pandemic low levels.
Hiring activity, while cooling, continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.32 million people, down from 5.42 million in July.
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People are quitting less. In August, 3.08 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 1.9% of the workforce. It continues to move below the prepandemic trend.
A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.
Job switchers still get better pay. According to , which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in September for people who changed jobs was up 6.6% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 4.7%.
Unemployment claims tick higher. rose to to 225,000 during the week ending September 28, down from 219,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.
Card spending data is holding up. From JPMorgan: “As of 25 Sep 2024, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 0.6% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 25 Sep 2024, our estimate of the U.S. Census September control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.13%.“
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Gas prices fall. From : “Despite literal and figurative storm clouds here and abroad, the national average for a gallon of gas still fell by three cents from last week to $3.19. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene did little to impact gasoline supply, but it crushed demand in affected areas by destroying infrastructure and causing power outages.”
Mortgage rates tick higher. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.12%, up from 6.08% last week. From Freddie Mac: “The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature. Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.”
There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
Construction spending ticks lower. declined 0.1% to an annual rate of $2.13 trillion in August.
Manufacturing surveys don’t look great. From S&P Global’s : “The September PMI survey brings a whole slew of disappointing economic indicators regarding the health of the US economy. Factories reported the largest monthly drop in production for 15 months in response to a slump in new orders, in turn driving further reductions in employment and input buying as producers scaled back operating capacity.”
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Similarly, the ISM’s signaled contraction in the industry.
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than hard data.
Services surveys look great. From S&P Global’s : “U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years. After GDP rose at a 3.0% rate in the second quarter, a similar strong performance looks likely in the three months to September. Encouragingly, inflows of new business in the service sector grew at a rate only marginally shy of August’s 27-month high. Lower interest rates have already been reported by survey contributors as having buoyed demand, notably for financial services which, alongside healthcare, remains an especially strong performing sector.”
Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 2.5% rate in Q3:
Putting it all together
We continue to get evidence that we are experiencing a where inflation cools to manageable levels .
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This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to employ very tight monetary policy in its . More recently, with inflation rates having from their 2022 highs, the Fed has taken a less hawkish stance in — even .
It would take monetary policy as being loose or even neutral, which means we should be prepared for relatively tight financial conditions (e.g., higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All this means for the time being, and the risk the into a recession will be relatively elevated.
At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that .
Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, . Unemployed people are , and those with jobs are getting raises.
Similarly, as many corporations . Even as the threat of higher debt servicing costs looms, give corporations room to absorb higher costs.
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At this point, any given that the .
And as always, should remember that and are just when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While , the long-run outlook for stocks .
While you certainly do not have to wait for the beginning of the new year to overhaul your financial habits, the calendar’s fresh start can offer a natural opportunity to reassess. But all too often, when we identify an area of our life that is not quite going as planned, there is a temptation to tear it all down and start from scratch, in the form of a broad-ranging — and overwhelming — resolution.
Sometimes, though, making small tweaks to existing habits, or introducing some fresh ones, is all it takes to course correct, allowing one good financial decision to snowball into the next. Sounds more manageable, right? Read on for some ideas to get started.
1. Dial up your retirement contributions
Increasing the amount you are diverting to retirement savings is easy enough to do, and it can make a sizable impact over time. As an illustration, a “worker who raises contributions by just 1% in their mid-20s — starting at a 5% rate and bumping up to 8% over three years — could accumulate about $84,000 more by retirement than someone who never increases their rate,” said Investopedia, citing analysis by J.P. Morgan.
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While on first glance, diverting more of your funds may seem like a stretch for your budget, “often, you can increase your retirement contributions without making a meaningful difference to your current lifestyle,” especially if the increments are smaller, such as an increase of 1%, said Yahoo Finance.
2. Start tracking your spending
This is another small adjustment that can result in major shifts to your financial life, both in terms of your understanding of where your money is going and in how much you spend. Once you start paying closer attention to your expenditures, you might realize that “some impulse purchases that you shrug off on a regular basis might be having a bigger impact on your bottom line than you think,” said Citizen’s Bank. This can also provide an opportunity to evaluate whether your spending is actually aligned with your larger goals (more on that next).
There are a variety of apps you can use to make this tracking super simple, or you can always make a simple spreadsheet to update regularly.
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3. Set goals and intentionally work toward them
When it comes to saving, budgeting or investing, it can be hard to get motivated if you do not know what you are getting motivated for. Defining your financial goals, both for the short- and long-term, can provide you with some much-needed clarity, and also ensure you start taking the actions necessary to actually achieve those goals.
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What shape these goals take is entirely up to you. For instance, “one person’s goals might be to pay off their student loans and save for a down payment on a house,” while “another might want to sock away enough cash in an online bank account to start their own business down the road,” said SoFi. It is really all about making your money work for you, instead of the other way around.
Former Ghana Finance Minister Kenneth Ofori-Atta was detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on January 6 in Washington, DC, where he remains in custody at the Caroline Detention Facility in the state of Virginia. His detention follows Ghana’s December 10 formal extradition request to the US Department of Justice for Ofori-Atta, who faces 78 counts of corruption and corruption-related offenses.
ICE agents arrested Ofori-Atta around 11:00 AM at a luxury apartment complex in Washington, DC. According to the ICE Online Detainee Locator System, Ofori-Atta remains “in ICE custody” as of January 11, 2026. Ghana’s Attorney General and Minister of Justice Dr. Dominic Ayine confirmed that Ofori-Atta is represented by private legal counsel. His lawyer, Frank Davies, stated that Ofori-Atta traveled to the United States for medical treatment and that a legal challenge to his custody has been filed in court. According to a January 10, 2026 press release signed by Ghana’s Ambassador to the United States Victor Emmanuel Smith, Ofori-Atta has declined consular assistance from the Ghana Embassy.
The US State Department revoked Ofori-Atta’s visa in 2025, according to Ghana’s Attorney General Dominic Ayine. The Attorney General further emphasized that it was the visa revocation—rather than a visa overstay or expiration—that triggered US federal enforcement action. The US Department of Justice is currently reviewing Ghana’s extradition request under the “dual criminality” doctrine, which requires confirmation that the alleged financial crimes in Ghana would also be prosecutable in the United States.
Kenneth Ofori-Atta served as Ghana’s Finance Minister under former President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo. He faces charges related to alleged corruption in multiple government contracts, including a GHS 125 million contract between the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) and Strategic Mobilisation Limited (SML), the $400 million National Cathedral Project, ambulance procurement for the Ministry of Health, and electricity company contracts. Ghana’s Office of the Special Prosecutor (OSP) formally charged Ofori-Atta on November 18, 2025. The OSP seeks to recover misappropriated public funds through the government’s Operation Recover All Loots (ORAL) initiative launched after the National Democratic Congress won the 2024 presidential election.
The extradition request follows a months-long effort by Ghanaian authorities to secure Ofori-Atta’s return. The OSP requested Ofori-Atta appear for questioning on February 10, 2025 via a letter dated January 24, 2025. His solicitors responded January 31, stating he had left Ghana in early January for medical treatment in the United States and was “out of the jurisdiction indefinitely for medical examinations.” The solicitors requested rescheduling and offered to provide information to aid investigations.
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On February 10, the OSP directed Ofori-Atta to provide a reasonable return date, warning that failure to comply would compel the OSP to “take all legal steps to secure his return to the jurisdiction.” His solicitors responded the same day, stating a doctor recommended he remain in the US for possible surgical intervention. The following day, February 11, his solicitors inquired whether the OSP conducted a search of Ofori-Atta’s premises, which the OSP denied.
During a February 2025 press conference, the OSP declared Ofori-Atta a fugitive, stating it was unconvinced by the medical report and disagreed that returning to Ghana would endanger his life. The OSP characterized his extended stay as “an attempt to avoid return to the jurisdiction.” By June 2025, Ghana secured a judicial arrest warrant and successfully placed Ofori-Atta on Interpol’s Red Notice database, though the notice was temporarily removed from public visibility following a challenge by the accused. The OSP transmitted a letter to the Attorney General on December 9 requesting formal extradition proceedings.
The charges against Ofori-Atta and seven other individuals include conspiracy to commit the criminal offense of directly or indirectly influencing the procurement process to obtain unfair advantage in contract awards, contrary to section 23(1) of the Criminal and Other Offenses Act, 1960 (Act 29) and section 92(2)(b) of the Public Procurement Act, 2003 (Act 663) as amended by Act 914. The charges stem from investigations into alleged corruption and financial irregularities in the GHS 125 million contract between the Ghana Revenue Authority and Strategic Mobilisation Limited. The Special Prosecutor is seeking to recover the amount, describing it as unjust enrichment obtained through unlawful means.
Among the most prominent allegations against Ofori-Atta involves the National Cathedral Project. In November 2024, the Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice concluded an investigation into the project, which was initiated by former President Akufo-Addo with an estimated cost of $100 million from private funds. The cost surged to $400 million, with the investigation revealing that the contract awarded to Ribade Company Ltd was void ab initio for violating mandatory provisions of the Procurement Act. The investigation recommended that the Board of Public Procurement Authority cancel the contract and investigate the Board of Trustees. Ofori-Atta allegedly authorized the release of $58 million in state funds toward construction costs. The project remains an incomplete excavation site in central Accra, on land formerly occupied by government buildings and judges’ residences. Additional charges relate to alleged corruption in ambulance procurement for the Ministry of Health and the termination of a contract between the Electricity Company of Ghana and Beijing Xiao Cheng Technology.
The extradition proceedings will be governed by Ghana’s Extradition Act, 1960 (Act 22), which applies where an extradition agreement exists with the requesting state. Section 2 of the Act mandates declining extradition requests if the offense is of a political character, with a Magistrate responsible for determining whether charges meet this standard.
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Article 40 of Ghana’s 1992 Constitution requires Ghana to observe treaty obligations and settle international disputes peacefully. This aligns with Article 1 of the UN Charter, which requires states to maintain friendly relations based on principles of equality and respect for human rights. The principle of pacta sunt servanda, enshrined in Article 26 of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), requires states to observe treaty obligations in good faith. Both Ghana and the United States are bound by their extradition agreement and are barred from invoking municipal law to avoid treaty obligations under Article 27 of the Vienna Convention, except in circumstances permitted under Article 46, which addresses capacity to conclude treaties and inconsistencies with normal practice and good faith.
The extradition request comes as Ghana and the United States maintain reciprocal cooperation on extradition matters. Ghana previously cooperated with US extradition requests, including the extradition of Ghanaian citizens to the United States for alleged crimes against US citizens. In one case, Abu Trica and other Ghanaian citizens were extradited to face charges related to an alleged $8 million romance scam targeting US citizens, demonstrating the mutual nature of bilateral treaty obligations.
The case against Ofori-Atta represents part of broader anti-corruption efforts in Ghana. Corruption has been a persistent challenge in the country since independence, with state officials diverting public resources to personal ventures. Ghana has implemented multiple measures to combat corruption, including Article 8(2) of the 1992 Constitution and Section 16 of the Citizenship Act, 2000 (Act 591), which restrict dual citizens from occupying certain key offices. The country has also created specialized institutions including the Office of the Special Prosecutor and the Economic and Organised Crimes Office. The 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections saw a change in political power, with the National Democratic Congress defeating the New Patriotic Party by approximately one million votes. The worst recorded corruption cases under Ghana’s fourth republic occurred during Ofori-Atta’s tenure as Finance Minister, prompting public demands for accountability that influenced the election outcome. The current NDC administration immediately established Operation Recover All Loots to recover misappropriated public funds.
Opinions expressed in JURIST Dispatches are solely those of our correspondents in the field and do not necessarily reflect the views of JURIST’s editors, staff, donors or the University of Pittsburgh.
Saks Global to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy imminently, sources say
$1.75 billion financing led by Pentwater and Bracebridge
Financing allows Saks to repay vendors, restock inventory during reorganization
NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) – Beleaguered luxury retailer Saks Global is close to finalizing $1.75 billion in financing with creditors that would allow its iconic Saks Fifth Avenue, Bergdorf Goodman and Neiman Marcus stores to remain open, two people familiar with the negotiations said.
The department store conglomerate wants to reorganize its debt and operations in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which it could file “imminently”, the people said.
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The financing would provide an immediate cash infusion of $1 billion through a debtor-in-possession loan from an investor group led by Pentwater Capital Management in Naples, Florida, and Boston-based Bracebridge Capital, the people said.
The company’s banks would also provide an additional $250 million in financing through an asset-backed loan, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private.
A DIP loan helps companies pay salaries, vendors and other ongoing expenses while a company goes through Chapter 11 bankruptcy, allowing it to continue operating while reorganizing its business. DIP financing gives investors priority repayment if the company isn’t successful and has to liquidate, so a bankruptcy judge will have to sign off on it.
Saks Global, which controls stores and brands that have helped shape America’s taste for high fashion over the last century, would have access to another $500 million of financing from the investor group once it successfully exits bankruptcy protection, the sources added.
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The negotiations are still fluid and the exact terms of the lending package could change, they cautioned. The financing plan would also need approval from a bankruptcy judge before it is finalized. The filing could come as soon as Tuesday, the people said.
The DIP finance package would allow Saks Global to repay its vendors and restock depleted inventory, one of the people said, while a Chapter 11 reorganization allows it to continue operating as it restructures its finances and renegotiates lease agreements and other contracts.
The so-called DIP loan could eventually be converted into equity or another type of asset, instead of repaid, if Saks successfully emerges from bankruptcy, one of the people said.
PJT Partners, which is advising Saks on its restructuring, declined to comment. Saks did not immediately return a request for comment.
A LUXURY DREAM THAT FAILED
Driven by the vision of real estate investor Richard Baker, Canada-based conglomerate Hudson’s Bay Co, which had owned Saks since 2013, bought rival Neiman Marcus in 2024 for $2.65 billion and spun off its U.S. luxury assets to create Saks Global. The plan was to more easily take on competitors like Bloomingdale’s (M.N), opens new tab and Nordstrom by bringing together two of America’s best-known department store chains.
Big names such as Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Salesforce (CRM.N), opens new tab backed the Saks Global deal by becoming equity investors.
While the marriage gave the newly formed luxury conglomerate more leverage to negotiate discounts with vendors, it also left it saddled with debt. Saks Global took on about $2.2 billion in fresh debt as part of the deal, targeting $600 million in annual cost savings, according to media reports citing the company’s investor call in October.
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But demand for luxury goods didn’t rebound as hoped for in 2025 and the servicing costs on that debt significantly ate into its cash flow, making it late in paying vendors and investors, according to interviews with former vendors, investors and analysts. Saks Global had to tap investors for another $600 million in June and missed a crucial bond payment last month.
Some of Saks’ bonds are trading at as little as a penny on the dollar. Its first lien bonds, which have the most protection in bankruptcy, are trading at 25 cents to 30 cents, one bond investor told Reuters.
The new cash injection should give Saks enough breathing room, and liquidity, to eventually recover, one investor said.
It wasn’t clear whether the restructuring plan will include additional changes to the company’s management team or its storied real estate holdings, which include its flagship Saks Fifth Avenue store in New York City. The company abruptly replaced its chief executive – veteran retail executive Marc Metrick – earlier this month, elevating Baker to CEO.
Reporting by Dawn Kopecki in New York and Matt Tracy in Washington; Editing by Lisa Jucca, Deepa Babington and Lisa Shumaker
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