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Stock market psychology and behavioural finance: What investors should know

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Stock market psychology and behavioural finance: What investors should know
Financial success is not a hard science. It’s a soft skill, where how you behave is more important than what you know. While everybody is looking at the same stock prices, same charts and has access to the same balance sheets and management commentary, not everybody has the same outcome in their trading and investing journey. This boils down to the single most important factor responsible for all the outcomes – our psychology and the subsequent behaviour that is driven by this.Most often than not this happens due to our existing beliefs and blind spots which most of us don’t even know that they exist. Below are a couple few psychological/sentiment indicators that can help you decode various phases of the market:

VIX: this index generates a projection of volatility, which can show the speed and range of changing prices over a period. Investors may use the VIX to gauge market sentiment, specifically how fearful market participants feel.

Put-call Ratio: This ratio analyses the volume/oi of puts, or rights to sell an asset, and calls, the rights to buy an asset, over a period. Investors use this ratio to gauge the overall sentiment of the market because it can imply a possible reversal in market trend.

Fear & Greed Index: The fear and greed index is a market sentiment indicator that measures the emotions and psychology of investors in the stock market. It provides an overview of the market of whether market participants are primarily driven by fear or greed at a given time.

Markets may be a voting machine in the short run but they do provide a prism to make us believe what the “group” thinks and this can lead to a variety of biases like “an illusion of being indestructible”, “collective rationalisation” or simply “being blinded to pitfalls”.

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According to behavioural finance theory, there are several types of cognitive biases that can affect an investor’s judgment. Being aware of the most common ones can help you avoid them in order to make more rational decisions after all, It’s not what you do in the markets that matters, but it is what you “don’t do” that counts!

Overconfidence

Most people tend to overestimate their abilities in many areas. When you overestimate how much you know about the market or a specific stock, you’ll be tempted to make risky decisions like trying to time the market, which is trying to predict the best time to buy or sell stocks, or overinvesting in high-risk stocks, which are more likely to lose money.

Herd Mentality

Humans are social animals, so going along with the crowd is in our nature. From the hot new fashion trend everyone is wearing to the crowded restaurant that requires you to make reservations months in advance, people tend to make choices based on what others are doing. In financial markets, however, herd mentality can lead to asset bubbles, which is when the price of an asset like a stock rises rapidly but will eventually fall, and market crashes, which occur when a lot of investors sell off their stock.

Loss Aversion

People feel the pain of a loss more acutely than the euphoria of a win, even if they win more than they lose. In financial terms, investors will often hold onto stocks they should sell to avoid realizing a loss. Conversely, they may sell too early to avoid further losses, when waiting for a market rebound would be the better option. Often investors with a strong loss aversion bias have portfolios that are too conservative, underperforming market norms.

Confirmation

Confirmation bias explains how two people with opposing viewpoints can hear the same information, and each comes away believing it supports their opinion. When you have a firmly-held belief, you give heavier weight to evidence supporting your belief while minimizing evidence contradicting it. In finance, confirmation bias can lead you to overlook investment strategies or assets that fall outside of your bubble, causing you to miss significant growth opportunities. You may also invest too heavily in one area because you haven’t fully analysed the risks.

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Behavioural Investing

While biases are a critical component in behavioural finance, there are other key elements in the theory, as well.

Heuristics

Heuristics is the process of simplifying a problem when you don’t have enough information to make a “perfect” decision. In these instances, you’re likely to use a shortcut or rule-of-thumb to make a decision that feels right. Heuristics simplify the decision-making process, which means they simplify the financial decision making process, as well. Without them, you’d have to spend much more time making decisions. However, relying on heuristics without carefully analysing investment options can lead to irrational or incorrect decisions.

Mental Accounting

In mental accounting, you place different values on money based on how you obtained it. If you buy a winning lottery ticket, for instance, you might blow it all on a spontaneous shopping spree even though you carefully budget your paycheck. This can lead to irrational financial decisions.

Anchoring

Anchoring is a type of heuristics that involves subconsciously using irrelevant information as a reference point. Historical values are common anchors. For example, if you bought a stock for Rs. 100 but it starts losing its value, you may be tempted to hold onto it because you don’t want to sell it for less. Salespeople take advantage of anchoring by starting negotiations at far above market value. The inflated price serves as an anchor, so when they come down, it’ll seem like a good deal.

Successful Trading and Investing requires a lot more than having the right process and discipline. In the long run, the hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving.

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Finance

SixCap Healthcare Finance Appoints Carroll as Senior Relationship Manager

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SixCap Healthcare Finance Appoints Carroll as Senior Relationship Manager

SixCap Healthcare Finance added Dan Carroll as senior relationship manager, reporting to the company’s co-founder and chief investment officer, Dan Whitwer.

Carroll brings more than 20 years of commercial finance, portfolio management and healthcare asset-based lending experience to SixCap. Throughout his career, he has managed complex healthcare lending relationships, led portfolio management teams, overseen loan closings and partnered closely with borrowers to support growth while maintaining disciplined credit management.

Most recently, Carroll held leadership positions at Siena, CNH Finance and Triumph Healthcare Finance, building extensive expertise in healthcare lending, credit analysis, loan structuring, risk management and client relationship management.

In his new role, Carroll will oversee borrower relationships across SixCap’s growing healthcare portfolio, working closely with clients to provide proactive portfolio management, responsive service and financing solutions that evolve alongside their businesses.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Dan to the SixCap team,” Whitwer said. “I’ve had the privilege of working alongside Dan and have seen firsthand the integrity, experience and thoughtful approach he brings to every client relationship. He understands healthcare, he understands asset-based lending and, most importantly, he understands the value of building lasting partnerships. As our portfolio continues to grow, Dan’s leadership and commitment to exceptional client service make him a tremendous addition to our team.”

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Big financing steps forward for The 78, Foundry Park projects

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Big financing steps forward for The 78, Foundry Park projects

Two of Chicago’s most pivotal but challenging undeveloped sites — Foundry Park on the North Side and the vacant South Loop parcel known as The 78 — moved forward in a big way Wednesday before the City Council adjourned for a summer recess.

Mayor Brandon Johnson introduced a $201.6 million tax increment financing subsidy for JDL Development’s scaled back vision for North Side industrial land along the Chicago River that once was supposed to be home to the Lincoln Yards megaproject.

And despite a slew of concerns from Council members, the full Council approved a $425 million TIF for The 78, a reference to Chicago’s unofficial 78th community area. The subsidy will bankroll public improvements needed for the South Loop development, anchored by a $750 million soccer stadium privately financed by Chicago Fire billionaire owner Joe Mansueto.

Downtown Ald. Bill Conway (34th), whose adjacent TIF is being raided to help The 78, again refused to go along with the $250.1 million piece of the infrastructure package that will primarily be used to build a 1,200-space parking garage. The $216 million garage will serve as the “podium” for an open-air plaza and future high-rise development on the air rights above the garage.

Referring to the Bears’ long-running stadium saga, Conway said Wednesday he appreciates the Fire “not trying to move to Hammond, Indiana, and become the Hammond Sparks.” But he said he “cannot look the taxpayers in the eye and tell them” he supported spending “$250 million to build a stadium parking garage and plaza.”

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Finance Chair Pat Dowell, whose 3rd Ward includes The 78, has argued that the podium “brings the site to grade at Roosevelt Road” and is the key to “unlocking the site from the isolation that has stalled every previous development proposal.”

Deputy Planning Commissioner Jeff Cohen made that same point Wednesday, with a new wrinkle.

“The idea here is to incorporate that garage into the podium,” Cohen said. “It’s addressing a design and development plan that allows for all of the land within The 78 to be open for investment, rather than having to have either temporary or permanent surface parking lots to accommodate the car traffic.”

An artist’s rendering of the planned Chicago Fire soccer stadium at The 78 in the South Loop.

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The $201.6 million subsidy proposed for Foundry Park pales by comparison to the $1.3 billion that former Mayor Rahm Emanuel once proposed for Lincoln Yards. That massive subsidy became a political lightning rod, with the avalanche of criticism led by the Chicago Teachers Union and then-union organizer Brandon Johnson.

The $201.6 million subsidy that Johnson introduced at Wednesday’s Council meeting is more likely to be criticized for being too little.

It will support just over 25% of the $800 million worth of roads, bridges, utilities and mass transit improvements that 2nd Ward Ald. Brian Hopkins has said were mandated as part of the Lincoln Yards plan.

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Foundry Park developer Jim Letchinger acknowledged that there is “other infrastructure that the neighborhood would like to see done that is not possible right now.”

But Letchinger added it’s a start that includes the long-promised extension of the popular 606 Trail. “If you don’t start with something that’s achievable, you can’t achieve anything.”

“We have a plan to actually start building and creating revenue right away in conjunction with building our infrastructure … A lot of parks. Massive riverwalk. Ten acres of public open space. Very usable, very engaging,” Letchinger said Wednesday.

“As we continue to build, since we’re not using anywhere near all the increment that we’re creating, the other increment can go toward other projects that the neighborhood would like to see — whether it’s to build a bridge or fixing Elston Avenue, or anything else that they’re anxious about,” he said.

Public improvements promised to residents, but not covered by the $201.6 million subsidy, include another bridge crossing the Chicago River and a realignment of Elston Avenue, which Letchinger called a positive move in the long run, but a “massive undertaking” complicated by cost and property control.

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“No private developer can realign Elston. It’s impossible. The city is the only one that can do that, and they’re working on it. There’s plans for it. But it will take a very long time,” Lechtinger said.

Ald. Scott Waguespack (32nd) said there is “one bridge that a lot of people still want,” but it goes through private properties owned by Ozinga Ready Mix Concrete and several other owners.

“The city would have to do it as a taking [of property], and that would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. So they took that off the table because … that bridge wasn’t necessary at this time,” Waguespack told the Chicago Sun-Times.

Letchinger’s plan for roughly 34 vacant acres of the site calls for up to 3,737 residences, 20% of them designated as affordable to comply with the city’s set-aside rules. The new design includes low- to mid-rise buildings, some for offices, grouped near open space and riverfront access. Buildings would get ground-floor retail, and one is slated as a boutique hotel.

The project’s reduced density has drawn praise from residents. And Waguespack said he’s satisfied with the reduced public subsidy.

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“In the future if there’s more needed, we could go back and do it. But this is much more grounded in a realistic infrastructure project that will still satisfy all the needs of connecting the neighborhoods,” Waguespack said.

Hopkins said he views the scaled-down subsidy and the infrastructure projects as “wholly inadequate” and a broken promise to Lincoln Park and Bucktown residents.

“Lincoln Yards provided for two bridges with the possibility of a third. Foundry Park has zero,” Hopkins said. “I don’t want to move on a vague verbal promise that we might consider adding a bridge later. The time to add it is now while the redevelopment agreement is still pending. And the fact that it was omitted is tragic. Also, the [Elston-Armitage] intersection redesign and the new Metra station seems to have fallen by the wayside.”

Also at Wednesday’s meeting, Johnson proposed a tax break for Chicago’s booming film and television industries — by reducing the 15% personal property lease transaction tax to 11%.

The tax has been raised twice in recent years and was the biggest piece of the revenue package that helped balance the $16.7 billion budget for 2026. It has exceeded revenue projections by $40.3 million through June 30, allowing Johnson to offer the break in hopes of attracting more film and TV productions to Chicago.

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The City Council also followed a trail blazed by Gov. JB Pritzker and his counterparts in six other states by prohibiting present and former city employees — and elected officials — from using insider information to bet on prediction markets. Apps including Kalshi and Polymarket are used to place bets on everything from election winners and the number of candidates entering a specific race for office, to budgetary and foreign policy decisions by elected officials.

Championed by Ald. Timmy Knudsen (43rd), the ordinance prohibits current or former city officials, appointees and employees from using “confidential information or any non-public information, including the identity of the subject of an investigation” to either participate in prediction markets or “assist any other person” placing those bets.

The Council also confirmed Johnson’s appointment of Dr. Garth Walker as the city’s public health commissioner.

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Finance

The average cost of fertility treatments and how to plan for them

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The average cost of fertility treatments and how to plan for them

Covering the cost of fertility treatment can feel like yet another hurdle in a process that is already physically and emotionally draining. Not only do you have to go through the testing and medical procedures involved, you can also end up paying tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

For families who want to have kids or women who want to afford themselves a little more time, though, this can feel like a price well worth paying. But the process may necessitate some financial planning. Research can also go a long way, as insurance companies increasingly offer coverage.

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