Finance
Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ teaches 4 valuable investing lessons
- System 1 operates swiftly, relying on intuition and emotions. It employs mental shortcuts (heuristics) and leans on readily available information to facilitate rapid decision-making.
- System 2 functions at a slower pace, prioritising logic and deliberate thought. It demands effort and focused attention to thoroughly analyse information and engage in careful reasoning.
The investing implications of these systems include:
- Biases originating from System 1 can result in suboptimal investment decisions. Kahneman highlights multiple cognitive biases, including overconfidence, framing effects, and loss aversion, that can distort our judgment. These biases may contribute to impulsive decision-making, the pursuit of past successes, and panicking amid market downturns.
- Activate System 2 for improved results. Intentionally engaging System 2 can assist in mitigating these biases. Thoughtfully evaluating risk-reward scenarios, incorporating diverse perspectives, and leveraging long-term historical data can contribute to more rational and well-informed investment decisions.
Embracing humility within the financial sphere can yield tangible advantages for your finances. Kahneman outlines several ways in which adopting a humble approach can result in cost savings. Some of his famous quotes that underline some necessary investing lessons include:
“The best we can do is a compromise: Learn to recognise situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high.”
This statement encapsulates the essence of navigating life with an acknowledgment of both our cognitive strengths and limitations. Recognising that errors are an inherent part of the human experience marks a crucial initial stride toward becoming a more insightful and efficient individual.
Moreover, comprehending the vulnerabilities of our minds, such as overconfidence, anchoring, and loss aversion, empowers us to steer clear of succumbing to these pitfalls in critical situations. Additionally, the significance of context cannot be overlooked. Identifying circumstances characterised by stress, time constraints, or limited information serves as a signal for heightened awareness and a shift toward slower, more deliberate decision-making.
Drawing lessons from past missteps is equally essential. Reflecting on our previous errors and discerning the contributing factors provides us with valuable insights, enabling us to navigate similar situations more adeptly in the future.
“There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not – and few of them do – are playing a game of chance.“
Kahneman harbours skepticism regarding the consistent ability of individual investors to outperform the market. This skepticism is grounded in various pivotal factors.
- Market efficiency, as proposed by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, asserts that all relevant information is already incorporated into stock prices. This poses a formidable challenge to consistently forecast future price movements and to consistently outperform the market through attempts to ‘outsmart’ it. Over the last five decades, research overwhelmingly aligns with this hypothesis. Numerous studies indicate that a significant majority of active mutual funds exhibit underperformance when accounting for fees and expenses, implying that their endeavours in stock selection do not consistently contribute value.
- Investors are prone to a range of cognitive biases such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and anchoring, which can result in irrational decisions and unfavourable investment outcomes. These biases have the potential to skew our evaluations of risk and reward, resulting in behaviours like chasing previous winners, prematurely selling successful investments, and persistently holding onto underperforming assets.
- Seasoned investors equipped with superior information, resources, and analytical tools may hold an advantage over individual investors. This dynamic can establish an unequal playing field, amplifying the challenge of consistently outperforming the market.
“The research suggests a surprising conclusion: to maximize predictive accuracy, final decisions should be left to formulas, especially in low-validity environments.“
At the core of Kahneman’s doubtfulness regarding the consistent outperformance of individual investors in the market lies his characterisation of stock picking as a ‘low-validity environment’.
This feeling of unsurety arises because predicting future outcomes in low-validity environments is inherently challenging. The factors influencing stock prices are intricate and varied, often involving unpredictable news, market psychology, and external events. Identifying consistently profitable investment opportunities becomes a significant challenge under such circumstances.
Moreover, an inconsistent investing process in this environment further compounds the difficulty. Shifting between different strategies, pursuing hot tips, or making emotionally driven decisions based on short-term market fluctuations can intensify the inherent unpredictability and contribute to suboptimal performance.
In low-validity environments, investors should recognise the crucial role of consistency. Adhering to a clearly defined, objective investment process grounded in sound principles and long-term goals serves to mitigate the impact of emotions and biases. This entails aspects such as asset allocation, diversification, rebalancing, and adhering to disciplined entry and exit points. Through minimising impulsive decisions and responding to short-term fluctuations, consistency enhances the likelihood of navigating the inherent uncertainty of the market and attaining long-term success.
“Success = talent + luck; Great Success = a little more talent + a lot of luck.“
This formula underscores the importance of luck in achieving success, especially in the context of investing. It emphasises the substantial influence of chance events on outcomes, even for individuals possessing considerable skill.
Acknowledging the role of luck can cultivate humility, promote caution, and foster realistic expectations for future performance. This awareness can ultimately enhance the prospects of sustainable long-term success by combining skillful decision-making with a prudent acknowledgment of the unpredictable nature of markets. Disregarding the role of chance may result in overconfidence, risky behaviour, and underestimating the potential impact of unforeseen events in the future.
Despite the substantial role luck plays, it remains crucial to cultivate skills. Foundational elements such as investing knowledge, disciplined behaviour, and sound strategies provide the basis for navigating market fluctuations and making informed decisions. It is essential to concentrate on what can be controlled. Instead of fixating on luck, investors should prioritise managing their emotions, controlling risk, and implementing thoroughly researched investment strategies.
The author’s viewpoint on luck serves as a valuable reminder for investors to uphold humility, manage expectations, and approach the market with a balanced understanding that incorporates both skill and the inherent element of chance.
Although Kahneman’s book may not adhere to the conventional format of a typical investing guide with specific strategies or financial advice, it undeniably provides valuable insights for investors. Outperforming the market proves to be a formidable challenge, and the majority of investors find it beyond their capability. Nevertheless, delving into this book imparts investors with crucial perspectives on investing, addressing aspects such as risks, luck, and the essential talent required for successful wealth creation in the stock market.
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Published: 13 Jan 2024, 11:34 AM IST
Finance
Couple forced to live in caravan buy first home as ‘stars align’ in off-market sale
Natasha Luscri and Luke Miller consider themselves among the lucky ones. The couple recently bought their first home in the northwest suburbs of Melbourne.
It wasn’t something they necessarily expected to be able to do, but some good fortune with an investment in silver bullion and making use of government schemes meant “the stars aligned” to get into the market. Luke used the federal government’s super saver scheme to help build a deposit, and the couple then jumped on the 5 per cent deposit scheme, which they say made all the difference.
“We only started looking because of the government deposit scheme. Basically, we didn’t really think it was possible that we could buy something,” Natasha told Yahoo Finance.
RELATED
Last month they settled on their two bedroom unit, which the pair were able to purchase in an off-market sale – something that is becoming increasingly common in the market at the moment.
Rather perfectly, they got it for about $20-30,000 below market rate, Natasha estimated, which meant they were under the $600,000 limit to avoid paying stamp duty under Victoria’s suite of support measures for first home buyers.
“They wanted to sell it quickly. They had no other offers. So we got it for less than what it would have gone for if it had been on market,” Natasha said.
“We didn’t have a lot of cash sitting in an account … I think we just got lucky and made some smart investment decisions which helped.”
It’s a far cry from when the couple couldn’t find a home due to the rental crisis when they were previously living in Adelaide and had to turn to sub-standard options.
“We’ve managed to go from living in a caravan because we were living in Adelaide and we couldn’t find a rental with our dogs … So we’ve gone from living in a caravan, being kind of tertiary homeless essentially because we couldn’t get a rental, to now having been able to purchase our first home,” Natasha explained.
Rate rises beginning to bite for new homeowners
Natasha, 34, and Luke, 45, are among more than 300,000 Australians who have used the 5 per cent deposit scheme to get into the housing market with a much smaller than usual deposit, according to data from Housing Australia at the end of March. However that’s dating back to 2020 when the program first launched, before it was rebranded and significantly expanded in October last year to scrap income or placement caps, along with allowing for higher property price caps.
Finance
WHO says its finances are stable, but uncertainties loom – Geneva Solutions
A year after the US exit from the global health body, WHO officials say finances are secure, for now. But amid donor cuts, rising inflation, and future economic uncertainties, will funding be sufficient to meet its needs?
Earlier this month, senior officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) told journalists in a newly refurbished pressroom at the agency’s headquarters that its finances were “stable”. Following a year that saw its biggest donor withdraw as a member, forcing it to cut 25 per cent of its staff, its financial chief said that 85 per cent of its 2026 and 2027 budget had been financed.
“While we are looking at resource mobilisation, we’re also looking at tightening our belts,” Raul Thomas, assistant director general for business operations and compliance, explained, admitting that the WHO “will have great difficulty mobilising the last 15 per cent”.
Sitting at the centre of the press podium, surrounded by his deputies, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director general, backed up Thomas’s outlook. “We are stable now and moving forward”, since the retreat of the United States from the health body, he said. The Ethiopian noted that the WHO’s financial reform, allowing for incremental increases in state member fees, has been a big plus.
Mandatory contributions have historically accounted for only a quarter of the organisation’s total funding. States have agreed to raise their contributions by 20 per cent twice, in 2023 and in 2025. Further increments are scheduled to be negotiated in 2027, 2029 and 2031 to bring mandatory funding up to par with voluntary donations that the agency relies on. The WHO also reduced its biennial budget for 2026 and 2027 from $5.3 billion to $4.2bn.
“Our financing actually is better,” Tedros emphasised. “Without the reform, it would have been a problem.”
Read more: Nations agree to raise their WHO fees in wake of US retreat
Nonetheless, the director general, now in his final year at the UN agency, warned that member states should not assume that the financial road ahead will be clear. “The future of WHO will also be defined by how successful we are in terms of the assessed contribution increases or the financial reform in general.”
As west retreats, others step in
Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Centre at the Geneva Graduate Institute, explains that every year at the WHO, there’s “a non-stop effort” to ensure funding. She says a continued reliance on non-flexible, voluntary funding earmarked for specific projects, as well as donors withholding contributions – sometimes for political leverage – complicates the organisation’s financial plans. Meanwhile, ongoing cuts and predictions of a global economic downturn stemming from the war in the Middle East may further aggravate the situation, as costs rise and member states focus on national spending needs.
Soaring prices driven by the conflict and supply chain disruptions have already affected the WHO’s procurement of emergency health kits for crises, officials at the global health body said. “We are continuing to negotiate at least from a procurement standpoint on how we can bring down a little bit the prices or reduce the increases, but we are seeing it across the board,” said Thomas.
Altaf Musani, WHO director of health emergencies, meanwhile, said aid cuts have already deprived roughly 53 million people in crisis situations of access to healthcare.
Last month, Thomas told the Association of Accredited Correspondents at the UN at the end of April that the agency is looking at non-traditional, or non-western, donors for funding to close the biennial 15 per cent funding gap. “It’s not that we won’t go to the traditional donors, but we’re expanding that donor base.”
Since the dramatic drop in funding from the US, formerly the WHO’s biggest contributor, Moon highlights that there hadn’t been a “sudden jump by non-traditional states to compensate for the US”. Last May, at the World Health Assembly, China pledged $500 million in voluntary funding until 2030, a sharp rise from the $2.5m it contributed over 2024 and 2025.
The WHO did not respond to questions from Geneva Solutions about how much of the pledged amount had been disbursed. China’s mission in Geneva did not respond to questions raised about the funding.
Other countries, particularly Gulf states, have meanwhile been increasing their voluntary contributions to the organisation in recent years. Similarly to “western liberal democracies have in the past”, Moon explains that they may be seeking “to raise their profile and prioritise health as one of the issues that they would like to be known for”. She noted that the shift in the UN agency’s list of top donors may affect how it manages the money.
‘Sustainable’ spending
Amid these financial uncertainties, WHO executives say the organisation is also reviewing its expenditure through “sustainability plans”. This includes working more closely with collaborating centres, including universities and research institutes that support WHO programmes and are independently funded. On influenza, for example, the WHO works with dozens of national centres around the world, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US,
When asked about any plans for further job cuts, Thomas denied that these were part of the WHO’s current strategies, but could not rule them out entirely as a future possibility. Instead, he said, the organisation was “looking at ways to use funding that may have been for activities to cover salaries in the most important areas”.
Meanwhile, WHO data shows that the number of consultants employed by the agency by the end of 2025 decreased by 23 per cent, slightly less than the staff reductions. Global heath reporter Elaine Fletcher explained to Geneva Solutions that consultants continue to represent a significant proportion of the agency’s workforce, at 5,844 – including an overwhelming number hired in Africa and Southeast Asia – compared with regular staff numbering 8,569 in December.
Upcoming donor politics
The upcoming change in leadership will also be a strategic moment for the organisation to boost its coffers. Moon says the race for the top job at the organisation may attract funding from candidates’ home countries, which could be seen as a strategic opportunity.
Given the relatively small size of the WHO budget, compared to some government or agency accounts, “you don’t have to be the richest country in the world to dangle a few 100 million dollars, which could go a long way in their budget,” the expert notes.
The biggest ongoing challenge, however, will be whether major donors will announce further aid cuts. In the medium and longer term, “countries will have to agree on the step up every two years, and there’s always drama around that.”
Finance
Sports betting should be regulated as a financial product, not gambling, aspiring prediction market provider says
MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — Sports betting should be regulated as a federal financial product rather than a state-licensed casino product, two panelists said Thursday.
Appearing at Consensus Miami 2026, Jacob Fortinsky, co-founder and CEO of sports betting platform Novig, said the legacy sportsbook model is structurally broken because it treats winning bettors as cheaters.
“Sports betting is really the only industry in the country that regularly limits and bans their power users,” Fortinsky said. He framed sports event contracts as binary financial instruments that “for so long have been treated as a gambling product and instead should really be treated as a financial product.” Globally, he said, sports betting is “a $2 trillion asset class still dominated by these legacy casinos.”
Adam Mastrelli, founder of 57 Maiden, a firm that builds AI-driven trading strategies for prediction markets, validated the critique with personal experience.
“My partner and I got kicked off of two big sportsbooks within two months of trading because we were sharp,” he said, It’s like “LeBron James getting kicked out of the NBA for being too good,” he added.
Mastrelli said the team turned to Novig, which he said charges no fees and allows traders to create synthetic positions.
Mastrelli said his firm’s edge decayed quickly, and of 154 proposed trading strategies, only three currently run profitably.
“This edge will go away,” he said, “so if you can build systems that can keep up with that edge and that alpha… then it becomes really, really intriguing.” His most profitable season, he said, was the WNBA.
Fortinsky said Novig is on track to transition this summer from a sweepstakes model live in 35 states to a federal DCM framework that will let it operate in all 50 states. An earlier attempt to be regulated at the state level in Colorado, he said, was a wake-up call. “Regulators told us essentially you’re naive if you think we care about consumer protection or innovation or market efficiency. We really just care about our tax revenue,” he said.
The federal-state fight, Fortinsky added, is “going to get to the Supreme Court in the next two or three years,” with 15 pending lawsuits between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi, Robinhood and various states. Within prediction markets, he argued sports is “counterintuitively actually the safest vertical,” given the bigger insider-trading and manipulation concerns around political and event-driven contracts.
Mastrelli, who said he avoids offshore platforms entirely, compared prediction markets to equities exchanges: “When I see a robust equities market now, this is AQR against SIG. It doesn’t go away.”
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