To get big tech stocks powering higher again, it will take the convergence of two factors, says Goldman Sachs’ veteran tech analyst Kash Rangan.

The magic formula is a steady dose of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve combined with a burst of innovation that jumpstarts earnings growth in excess of 20%.

“We have to get the industry back from an 11% growth rate to 20%-30% and to do that, new innovation has to happen,” Rangan told Yahoo Finance at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on Monday.

Rangan — a bull on Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) — says the tech sector must deliver on the AI front in areas like upselling customers and monetization.

“When you compound that innovation with lower rates, magic happens,” Rangan said.

Investor attention is squarely on the Fed as it nears its next monetary policy decision on Sept. 18.

The Fed has widely telegraphed its first rate cut in several years as it looks to stabilize an economy that’s beginning to slow.

“I wouldn’t rule out 50 basis points, but 25 basis points strikes me as more likely,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told Yahoo Finance at the conference.

“I think there is a solid rationale for doing [a 50 basis point cut]. And the rationale is that five and three-eighths, five and a quarter to 5.5% is a really high fed funds rate. It’s the highest policy rate in the G10. It is despite the fact that the US has actually seen more progress on inflation than most G10 economies,” Hatzius added.

As for the other component, that may take a little more time — although signs of fresh innovation inside the AI growth story is beginning to surface.

Salesforce co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff told me in late August the company is on the cusp of releasing AI powered digital agents that can help businesses automate customer service. Salesforce will charge the usage by conversation, Benioff says.

Meantime, AMD (AMD) chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su took the veil off a series of new AI chips through 2026 in an interview at the conference today.

“AI is a much larger cycle than I would have expected five years ago,” Su said.

To be sure, tech stocks could use a little magic right now.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has shed about 5% in September as investors take profits in hot AI trades amid fears of slowing economic growth. Investors have also been concerned about an AI spending slowdown, triggered in part by mixed second quarter earnings from chip powerhouse Nvidia (NVDA).

Nvidia is off by a whopping 11% month to date, with AMD down 7%.

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“The recent performance [of Nvidia’s stock] hasn’t been great, but we do remain positive on the stock,” Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari told Yahoo Finance at the conference. “First of all, demand for accelerated computing continues to be really strong. We tend to spend quite a bit of time on the hyperscalers — the Amazons (AMZN), the Googles (GOOGL), the Microsofts (MSFT) of the world — but you are seeing a broadening in the demand profile into enterprise, even at the sovereign states.”

Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

In the below Opening Bid episode, State Street Global Markets head of equity research Marija Veitname makes her case for the AI sell-off being overdone.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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The government plans to nominate Japan’s former top finance diplomat, Masato Kanda, as the next president of the Asian Development Bank, sources familiar with the matter said Monday.

Japan has dominated the chief post of the ADB since the Manila-based multilateral lender was established in 1966. If elected by member countries, Kanda, 59, will succeed Masatsugu Asakawa, another former senior official of the country’s Finance Ministry.

The ADB announced the same day that Asakawa will step down on Feb. 23. He took up the presidency in January 2020 and was reelected in August 2021.

Kanda was behind recent massive market interventions by Japan to stem the yen’s sharp falls against other major currencies as vice finance minister for international affairs. He left the post in July after serving for three years.

“We’ll promptly recommend the most suitable person from Japan,” Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said in a statement without giving any specific name following the ADB’s announcement.

While hedge funds and private equity firms grab headlines, family offices—the private wealth management firms serving ultra-high-net-worth families—are quietly revolutionizing the financial landscape. With trillions of dollars under management and the freedom to operate beyond the glare of public scrutiny, these silent titans are reshaping markets and economies on a scale that few fully appreciate.

The Rise of the Family Office

Family offices have experienced explosive growth in recent years. According to a recent report by Deloitte Private, the number of single-family offices worldwide is expected to surge from 8,030 in 2024 to a staggering 10,720 by 2030—a remarkable 75% increase in just six years. Even more impressive is the projected growth in assets under management (AUM). Family offices currently manage an estimated $3.1 trillion, a figure set to skyrocket to $5.4 trillion by 2030—a 73% increase.

“The growth has been explosive,” says Rebecca Gooch, global head of insights for Deloitte Private. “It’s really the past decade that has seen an acceleration in growth in family offices.”

This rapid expansion is reshaping the wealth management industry and creating a powerful new force in the financial landscape. Family offices are projected to surpass hedge funds in terms of assets under management in the coming years, becoming the new darlings of fundraising. Venture capital firms, private equity interests, and private companies are all vying for a slice of this growing pie.

The Power of Discretion

Unlike their more visible counterparts in the hedge fund and private equity world, family offices operate with a level of discretion that borders on invisibility. They have no obligation to report earnings, no pressure to justify fees, and no need to anxiety over quarterly performance metrics. This freedom from public scrutiny allows family offices to make bold, long-term investment decisions that can have far-reaching consequences for global markets.

Eric Johnson, Deloitte’s private wealth leader and family office tax leader, explains the appeal: “There are some organizations that don’t have products to pitch, but a lot of them do. And, lo and behold, if you engage them, what you’re going to have to buy is kind of what they’re selling, which might not be the best for the family.”

This laser focus on the family’s best interests, unencumbered by the need to sell products or satisfy external investors, gives family offices a unique edge in the market.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

The sheer scale of wealth managed by family offices is staggering. Deloitte’s report reveals that the total wealth held by families with family offices is expected to reach an eye-watering $9.5 trillion by 2030, more than doubling over the decade. To put this in perspective, the entire hedge fund industry managed approximately $4.3 trillion in assets as of Q2 2023, according to Hedge Fund Research.

North America is leading the charge in this family office revolution. The region’s 3,180 single-family offices are expected to grow to 4,190 by 2030, accounting for about 40% of the world’s total. The total wealth held by families with family offices in North America has more than doubled since 2019, reaching $2.4 trillion. By 2030, this figure is projected to hit $4 trillion.

A New Investment Paradigm

Family offices are not just growing in size; they’re also revolutionizing how ultra-high-net-worth individuals approach investing. Gone are the days of staid 60-40 stock and bond portfolios. Today’s family offices are aggressively moving into alternative assets, including private equity, venture capital, real estate, and private credit.

According to the J.P. Morgan Private Bank Global Family Office Report, family offices now allocate a whopping 46% of their total portfolio to alternative investments. The largest chunk of this—19%—goes to private equity. But family offices aren’t content with just investing in funds; they’re increasingly doing direct deals, investing directly in private companies.

A survey by BNY Wealth found that 62% of family offices made at least six direct investments last year, and 71% plan to make the same number of direct deals this year. This shift towards direct investing is sending shockwaves through the private equity and venture capital industries, as family offices become formidable competitors for deals.

The Long Game

One of the key advantages family offices have over traditional investment firms is their ability to take a long-term view. Without the pressure of quarterly earnings reports or the need to return capital to outside investors, family offices can hold investments for decades or even generations.

“Family offices can be very solid, strong partners to invest with,” notes Rebecca Gooch. “I think a lot of the private companies are very grateful for their long-term patient capital and their dedication to this space.”

This long-term perspective allows family offices to weather market volatility and capitalize on opportunities that might be too risky or illiquid for other investors. It also makes them attractive partners for private companies looking for stable, committed investors.

The Global Footprint

The influence of family offices extends far beyond North America. Asia Pacific has emerged as a hotbed of family office activity, with 2,290 family offices today—surpassing Europe’s 2,020. By 2030, Asia Pacific is expected to host 3,200 family offices, reflecting the rapid wealth creation in the region.

This global expansion is not just about numbers; it’s about diversification and opportunity. Over a quarter (28%) of family offices now have more than one branch, and 12% plan to establish another. North America and Asia Pacific are the most attractive destinations, with 34% of family offices targeting each of these regions.

The Next Generation

As wealth transfers to the next generation, family offices are evolving to meet new demands and priorities. Women now serve as the principals of 15% of family offices worldwide, signaling a shift in leadership and potentially in investment strategies.

The average age of family office principals is 68, and 4 in 10 family offices will go through a succession process in the next decade. This generational shift is likely to bring new perspectives on issues like sustainable investing, technology, and global diversification.

The Future of Finance

As family offices continue to grow in size and sophistication, their impact on global finance is only set to increase. A majority of industry insiders expect the number of family offices worldwide to expand (73%), become more institutionalized and professionally managed (66%), and adopt greater asset class and geographic investment portfolio diversification (55%).

Wolfe Tone, Deloitte Private Global leader at Deloitte Global, sums up the situation: “As they continue to navigate ongoing economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, family offices are expanding their services, maturing their structures, focusing on their talent strategies, and carefully managing their investments to ensure sophisticated and efficient operations for the future.”

The Bottom Line

While hedge funds and private equity firms may capture more headlines, family offices are the true titans reshaping global finance. With trillions in assets, a long-term perspective, and the freedom to operate away from public scrutiny, these institutions wield enormous influence over markets and economies.

As their assets continue to grow and their strategies evolve, family offices are poised to play an even more significant role in shaping the future of global finance. For investors, policymakers, and financial professionals, understanding the power and potential of family offices is no longer optional—it’s essential.

In a world where financial power is increasingly concentrated, family offices stand as the silent giants, moving markets and reshaping economies on their own terms. As we look to the future of global finance, it’s clear that the real action isn’t in the spotlight—it’s in the shadows, where family offices quietly pull the strings of the world economy.